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  • #173,681
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:14pm Dec 17, 2009 12:14pm
Quoting sibajnok
all indicators have their weekness, based on the fact that they analyse history...

however, there is a bit of wisdom in understanding that indicators should tell you story...

and the most useful part of history is trend
most do.. and i have recently started using them.. but............i tink i can i tinks i can. 25 is out doing some math... and just woke.. look at purple chart... pick a letter.. you cant buy a vowel
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #173,682
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:14pm Dec 17, 2009 12:14pm
we will break 14300 if Gold breaks 1100... USD has been gaining as gold has been falling most of today
  • #173,683
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:21pm Dec 17, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting TaoTrader
Your logic here is wrong, although I believe it is well intended. You most definitely need to be looking at the higher times frames first for the proper signals to interpret the trend. The figures from 2002 you mentioned do not necessarily interpret as an uptrend for the current price movement. If I were to concede anything to your point, it would be that the current price movement on the monthly is an ABC correction to the uptrend since 2002. However even if this is the case, you are still looking at a wave c, which in essence will corresponds...
Thanks for the advice.
  • #173,684
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:25pm Dec 17, 2009 12:25pm
hey wow! i just gained member status! i take it as a x-mas present!

look forward debating the mkts with u guys!

thanks mr/mrs admin!
  • #173,685
  • Edited 12:58pm Dec 17, 2009 12:31pm | Edited 12:58pm
Another way to look at the charts is that if you interpret the data from 2002 as the beginning of 5 wave up trend, you are seeing an ABC correction which currently means a a down trend, although much smaller than the movement from (2002 to 2008 ). If you interpret the monthly chart as I do, you will notice the movement from 2002 to 2008 was a retracement over 100% from the movement down(down trend) from 1995 to 2000. So, this 100% retracement from 2002 to 2008 is not eligible for a 5 wave pattern if you interpret it along with the 1995-2000 movement.

Because the 2002 retracement can be seen as a wave 1, either way we are seeing a sustained downward movement. You are either seeing a smaller ABCon: correction( shorter monthly downtrend) or a longer wave 3 downtrend (longer monthly downtrend).

Conclusion: Downtrend

Please look at my journal to understand how this works. I hope you end up on the right side of the trend.
  • #173,686
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:31pm Dec 17, 2009 12:31pm
Shorting this at 1.4344-50 for a real attack at 1.4300
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #173,687
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:36pm Dec 17, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting TaoTrader
Thanx for the info.......it was quite helpful.
You're more than welcome Tao. You're putting a lot of work in here helping others and anything I can do to assist you will always be a pleasure sir.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
  • #173,688
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:36pm Dec 17, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting Pip Pride
Thank you for your good advice. I have to admit I only have an outline understanding of Elliot Wave Theory and would not be able to interprit Waves with any real confidence. I must say though, I did like Constin's 4hr Fibs, where he used 1 Swing High and 2 Swing Lows to identify a possible Long. Its a technique I've seen other traders use to identify confluence. As I said I don't think its confirmation of a long but definitely 'one to watch'.

I'm certainly intrigued by your chart/ (and Fib technique) and looking forward to seeing and learning...
No problem, just follow my journal if you need any help.
  • #173,689
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:37pm Dec 17, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting QuickSilver
Thanks for the advice.

No problem, just follow my journal if you need any help.
  • #173,690
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:40pm Dec 17, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting maurofx
I suggest you read this book.it'll help you a lot! Good luck!

Nison, Steve - Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques
"The Candle Stick Course" by Steve Nison is my favorite book on candlesticks. I would encourage all traders to invest in this book. All of this author's books are highly effective.
  • #173,691
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:45pm Dec 17, 2009 12:45pm
gold just bounced off its downward trendline, could be trying 14300 here???
  • #173,692
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:45pm Dec 17, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting Why Oh Why
You're more than welcome Tao. You're putting a lot of work in here helping others and anything I can do to assist you will always be a pleasure sir.
Yeah, I won't always have this much time, just like you. Until I have my entire trading strategy uploaded I will be here helping people whenever I can. After that back to studying for school....... I'm also in the process of publishing a book. This is one of the reasons I spend so much time on the computer, that and I go to college online. If you can ever assist me with any fundamental analysis that would be great. I am not in the dark in this area, but I simply do not have the time to monitor all the analysis from around the world. Thanx again.
  • #173,693
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:48pm Dec 17, 2009 12:48pm
failed to break it though... bounced straight off it though... potential double bottom on the gold at 1100 and a bit of a recovery for the day for the euro?

all possible scenarios though :S
  • #173,694
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:50pm Dec 17, 2009 12:50pm
did some math..4304 was the first... but i missed it . i was sleeping... next is 4279 then 4232.. i did a bullish one just in case it was 4357... best i can tell 4302 is a 50% number on purple chart.. so ill continue with purple dec chart.. since we usaully overshoot. 4279-4276 4232-4220 or 50% #

4357 is a chart number...i cant go any higher then this for now.. there are no signs.. very unusual
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #173,695
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:53pm Dec 17, 2009 12:53pm
Evening star on 5m confirmed near the top of the downtrend chanell. Bearish engulfing in 15m and evening star on 30m. Going short, hope it'll make it to 1.43. Any thoughts? Good luck for everyone!!!
  • #173,696
  • Edited 1:05pm Dec 17, 2009 12:54pm | Edited 1:05pm
so far gold is concerned it is just start going down only.so will eu too.some up & down always be there.lower tf crying for some retracements now .daily,weekly ,H4 and even m5 very positive slow stoches.
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #173,697
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:54pm Dec 17, 2009 12:54pm
Goddamn all those 5min tf shorters, make false signals
They think they are smarter than I am.
  • #173,698
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:55pm Dec 17, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting maurofx
Evening star on 5m confirmed near the top of the downtrend chanell. Bearish engulfing in 15m and evening star on 30m. Going short, hope it'll make it to 1.43. Any thoughts? Good luck for everyone!!!
Lol! Guess i harry up. let's see if the upper resistance of the downtrend chanell sends it back south!
  • #173,699
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:59pm Dec 17, 2009 12:59pm
Quoting maurofx
Lol! Guess i harry up. let's see if the upper resistance of the downtrend chanell sends it back south!
Another way to look at the charts is that if you interpret the data from 2002 as the beginning of a 5 wave up trend, you are seeing an ABC correction which currently means a a down trend, although much smaller than the movement from (2002 to 2008 ). If you interpret the monthly chart as I do, you will notice the movement from 2002 to 2008 was a retracement over 100% from the movement down(down trend) from 1995 to 2000. So, this 100% retracement from 2002 to 2008 is not eligible for a 5 wave pattern if you interpret it along with the 1995-2000 movement.

Because the 2002 retracement can be seen as a wave 1, either way we are seeing a sustained downward movement. You are either seeing a smaller ABC correction( shorter monthly downtrend) or a longer wave 3 downtrend (longer monthly downtrend).

Conclusion: Downtrend

Please look at my journal to understand how this works. I hope you end up on the right side of the trend.
  • #173,700
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:00pm Dec 17, 2009 1:00pm
Quoting TaoTrader
If you can ever assist me with any fundamental analysis that would be great.
I'll be back in the UK around June to assist on a training course. It goes out live from a trading room where about 30 traders in this and other markets rent a desk. That may be of interest to you. I'll pm a free access code to you when the date is confirmed. In the meantime I'll help any way I can.

I'm finished for the week now. 12 short lots closed with the rest being bot minded. One lot was a small loser.
Do not focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.
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