Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1396 | Forex Factory

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #27,901
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:04am Dec 17, 2009 11:04am
Quoting MCFly
I closed the half after the candle rejected to close below the 35 sma and banked 15 pips. The rest was stopped out at break even.
Good trade. I'm waiting to see if the 35sma holds.
Cap
  • #27,902
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:13am Dec 17, 2009 11:13am
Quoting The Captain
Good trade. I'm waiting to see if the 35sma holds.
When E/J will close below the 35 sma what kind of chart pattern is it? A tweezer top or a dbhlc?
  • #27,903
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:20am Dec 17, 2009 11:20am
Quoting MCFly
When E/J will close below the 35 sma what kind of chart pattern is it? A tweezer top or a dbhlc?
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe since the "tweezer" is so small it can basically be considered a DBHLC.

And it played out well. We'll see if the 129.00 resistance holds.
Cap
  • #27,904
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:25am Dec 17, 2009 11:25am
Quoting The Captain
Good trade. I'm waiting to see if the 35sma holds.
The retest of the 35 sma was my entrypoint.

Hope you got the trade too.
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  • #27,905
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:29am Dec 17, 2009 11:29am
Quoting MCFly
The retest of the 35 sma was my entrypoint.

Hope you got the trade too.
You bet. Got her at 129.20 and out at 129.05.. buyers seem to be coming in.
Cap
  • #27,906
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:30am Dec 17, 2009 11:30am
Quoting The Captain
You bet. Got her at 129.20 and out at 129.05.. buyers seem to be coming in.
Yes I'm also out with 3/4 of my position.
  • #27,907
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:34am Dec 17, 2009 11:34am
Quoting MCFly
Yes I'm also out with 3/4 of my position.
Good job. No sign of any of the seniors today.. Maybe Pippi is still looking for that power button on his computer
Cap
  • #27,908
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:53pm Dec 17, 2009 12:53pm
Really enjoying this 4H candle on GU and EJ looks like she is going hell
  • #27,909
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:55pm Dec 17, 2009 12:55pm
I have support on ej at 128.904 and 128.774 one of them might hold
  • #27,910
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:41pm Dec 17, 2009 1:41pm
Ok here is a question I have that I hope someone can help me on. I've been wrong on this a few times. When there is 1oclock/5oclock MA action with a strong reversal candle. Does the 1oclock/5oclock MA trade overtake the PA reversal candle as seen here? To me this always seems to happen. Any thoughts?
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Cap
  • #27,911
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:20pm Dec 17, 2009 2:20pm
Hi EO

What are your thoughts on cable
  • #27,912
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:25pm Dec 17, 2009 2:25pm
Quoting The Captain
Ok here is a question I have that I hope someone can help me on. I've been wrong on this a few times. When there is 1oclock/5oclock MA action with a strong reversal candle. Does the 1oclock/5oclock MA trade overtake the PA reversal candle as seen here? To me this always seems to happen. Any thoughts?
I agree, its always a problem I had, seeing one thing that says its going down and another that its going up I was beginning to wish I knew nothing again

What I've found though after going over and over what seems like millions of charts, is that even though there might be a strong reversal candle usually the MA bounce will work anyway if you only think of it as grabbing a small amount of pips. They almost always work for at least 10. Then, as Ken always says, if it does resume the trend, you are facing the right direction and it can go for a lot more. The more risky trade is always the counter trend. If you look over todays G/U chart, because it basically trended nicely, and look from the 11am GMT candle through to the 13.30 GMT and count the amount of times it hit the 10ma and came back down for at least 10 pips that on its own comes to a fair amount of pips. Then when it reached the 21 there was a bounce there and then the 35. So even on its way up it still keeps coming down a bit. Obviously if it has a lot of momentum you wouldn't stand in the way of it, but usually they work.

In fact it works so well that my partners who loves EA's and hates manual trading, has made an EA that just does the ma bounces from EO's thread and it works really well, I don't trust EA's though but it shows how the bounces work well basically on their own with a few rules built in, like the MA's must be in the right order and pointing down or up.
  • #27,913
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:29pm Dec 17, 2009 2:29pm
Quoting davids
Hi EO

What are your thoughts on cable
East brother!

I'm short on her, I'm long on her! Waiting for the daily to close. If my daily closes below 6170, then I feel we could very well see 605x and maybe even 598x. Of course, she breathes so she will go up and down. Remember to look at our weekly candle. Tomorrow will be the finalization of that candle and PA on the weekly supports the Southbound move to 598x.
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #27,914
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:32pm Dec 17, 2009 2:32pm
Quoting eohater
East brother!

I'm short on her, I'm long on her! Waiting for the daily to close. If my daily closes below 6170, then I feel we could very well see 605x and maybe even 598x. Of course, she breathes so she will go up and down. Remember to look at our weekly candle. Tomorrow will be the finalization of that candle and PA on the weekly supports the Southbound move to 598x.

Thanks Bro
  • #27,915
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:33pm Dec 17, 2009 2:33pm
Eo are you still short from 1.7
  • #27,916
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:36pm Dec 17, 2009 2:36pm
Quoting davids
Eo are you still short from 1.7
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #27,917
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:37pm Dec 17, 2009 2:37pm
Quoting eohater
Nice brother
  • #27,918
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:41pm Dec 17, 2009 2:41pm
Quoting davids
Nice brother
It's been a wild ride for sure! I've considered closing it out, even talked with Pippi today that I might close it if we see 598x. Another part of me wants to leave it open. Last time I was up 1000pips on it, she came back and damn near closed me out. I'll let you know if I close it out. If I recall, some dumbass said I was stupid for taking that short! hmmm...so who's the dumbass now?
Just digging in the trenches like everyone else!
  • #27,919
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:49pm Dec 17, 2009 2:49pm
Quoting eohater
It's been a wild ride for sure! I've considered closing it out, even talked with Pippi today that I might close it if we see 598x. Another part of me wants to leave it open. Last time I was up 1000pips on it, she came back and damn near closed me out. I'll let you know if I close it out. If I recall, some dumbass said I was stupid for taking that short! hmmm...so who's the dumbass now?
I remember when you took it back in August I rode with you for about 2 days, he was probably jealous he did not think to take the same short
  • #27,920
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:52pm Dec 17, 2009 2:52pm
I have been trading GY more and more the last 2 weeks and the pippage on her is amazing
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