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Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #8,581
  • Dec 17, 2009 6:48am Dec 17, 2009 6:48am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Whatever charts you decide to use i would recommend using just those for your trade entries and exits. I used to look at 3 different feeds and i had myself all screwed up! I would try not to get too caught up on it otherwise you will be pissed every time you see a good candle on someone else's charts. One of my rules now is to only trade my feed that i have choosen to take my entries and exits off of.
Agreed. I've been looking for this set of charts for some time now so I'm set from here. I'll use my funded account for trade execution only from here.
-m
  • #8,582
  • Dec 17, 2009 6:53am Dec 17, 2009 6:53am
Quoting Blackeagle
Sure you can.

As many of you guessed, it was EURNZD chart.
Thanks Blackeagle.
  • #8,583
  • Dec 17, 2009 9:09am Dec 17, 2009 9:09am
Quoting mstandifer
FINALLY!!! Bars that actually look like real price reversal bars at swings!

OK...my OCD itch has been scratched. I can finally make some headway here.
-m
Marcus, I think you may be using your feed data to hide your real problem - lack of confidence in YOU and the method.

If this is the case, it is a natural progression. Your psycho is probably controlling your FEAR and you are scared to make a losing trade. Get over this, SEE the opportunity, PLAN the trade and trade the PLAN. If it loses it loses, no problem, forget it, move on to the next trade.

Keep doing this and, as long as you understand PASR and the # 1 rule, you will build YOUR confidence in YOU and the method as your winners exceed your losers.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,584
  • Dec 17, 2009 9:16am Dec 17, 2009 9:16am
Quoting Blackeagle
This is what I have on cable. My SR is at 1.6100 though we can see it as a thick line between 1.6100-1.6150 as it is a recent SR, not a major one. Because it is a recent one, actually I prefer using that blue DSRI line (better respected than SR at the moment) for my range trading method which is not the subject of this thread. But considering the PA since October and bigger picture for 2009, I still favor longs (unless 1.57 major SR is broken) when opportunities present themselves with PASR.
Agree 100%

The level I stated to Grimweasel that was being "protected" by the buyers for 7 days has now been breached by the sellers on their way to the next support - let's see what they can do there (what's left of them anyway).

Have you access to my charts? I have the exact same DSRI line!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,585
  • Dec 17, 2009 9:20am Dec 17, 2009 9:20am
Quoting Blackeagle
Look how 0.7100 major SR and 100 MA are providing support (even on today's Asian session USD rally, price didn't go below 0.7100 though today's bar is still running). Decisive break of 0.7100 will increase the odds of trend change, IMO.
Agree 100%, 0.7100 is the key level and if NZDUSD goes...........................
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,586
  • Dec 17, 2009 9:24am Dec 17, 2009 9:24am
Quoting Blackeagle
We have following facts:

1- Nov. SS on Big Boss
2- Dec. looks like another SS (inside bar) on Big Boss (current position)
3- Those SSs emerged from 0.9330 SR
4- H&S formation on Boss and Worker which is sitting on a good location for trend reversal.
5- Breakout of 9 month long DSRI and TL
6- Several PAs on Boss and Worker from 0.9330 SR
7- Breach of 0.8985 SR (today's bar but not closed yet)

On the other hand, we have

1- 0.8850 SR next
2- 100 MA on the way
3- Not an obvious LL-LH (until today's bar)

The price has been in a range between October...
While we are now at a critical PRICE and level, remember trading is thin with lower than normal liquidity and "not balanced".

I've been here before and seen the big boys come back from their holidays and totally reverse everything 100%.

BE CAREFUL!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,587
  • Dec 17, 2009 10:51am Dec 17, 2009 10:51am
Quoting Donadoney
Speaking of edges? Cable looks like a classical breakout pullback scenario from J16? What I really like about this trade is that on the boss chart there is confluence with the retest the 25 MA and the break of the DSRI lines drawn. Also look at the target support at 1.57ish, the 50 is coming to meet it !!! More confluence? However, these are only legitimate with the appropriate PA.

By the way the lower chart is a weekly chart I named it incorrectly.
Cable looks like a classical breakout pullback scenario from J16?

Are you sure you are posting on the correct thread? What the hell are you talking about? This thread has nothing to do with J16!

…………….the retest the 25 MA

Before, I was pretty sure you were reading but NOT understanding. Now I’m not sure you are even reading!

For the second time – WHAT IS THE 25 MA?

The thin liquidity and low volume is causing most pairs to respect recent Worker support/resistance therefore creating a “choppy” market. These are the times for a quick “in out” ATM trade rather than our usual trades.

********************************************************************************************

I have seen my accounts badly depleted during these situations and I am now in “full protection” mode.

Call me over cautious or ultra conservative but I don’t like RISK, don’t like giving money back to the market and don’t like making the same mistakes.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,588
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:00am Dec 17, 2009 11:00am
Quoting das
Hello Stat+team
Newbie I have been Lurking/learning on this Fantastic thread now for some time now and would like to thank everyone that posts on this thread for sharing as I have learMay I give my first analasis post on usd/chf.As i under stand big boss is looking long even though it has not closed,Boss is up and so is the worker.we have han a double bottom at support and round numer 9900 and now trend looks to have reversed.I am watching it for a retracment around 10600 and may enter on a pull back with PASR.
Please feel free comment on my First...
Make sure you register with Naws.

While your analysis is correct, I am waiting confirmation from the BOSS before I put money on a trend change. Plus I'm suspicious of recent moves.

There are posts within this thread telling you how to attach charts or, do a search on FF for how to do it. Simple really - even I can do it!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,589
  • Dec 17, 2009 11:59am Dec 17, 2009 11:59am
I receive many PMs from new students on The Path asking for status on my Momentum and Cycle studies, so here is an update.

First and foremost, these were for my amusement to keep me occupied during the day when I’m not doing other things. If I don’t look busy, my trouble and strife (BOSS) will get on my case and find me jobs to do!

They have a very low priority and relevance when it comes to trading. They are at the bottom of the pile after everything we use in PASR.

The more work I do on these, the more I realise they are really no better than other indicators (which they are).

I have spent a lot of time on specialist Cycle and Gann threads and sites and have come to the conclusion that despite what the Gann websites and materials push, there is no use of PRICE and TIME that can produce CONSISTENT profits.

There have been times when the cycles lined up perfectly with PRICE (and PASR) and TIME and I thought I had cracked the ever elusive trading code.

Similarly with momentum, I thought I had the code cracked.

However, in both cases, the cycles and momentum were later distorted by random and chaotic market action which bore zero resemblance to a profitable trade. Had I traded on cycles and momentum alone, I would have triggered each SL.

I subsequently did my f12 exercise on EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY and was astounded to see that correlation between my cycles, momentum and profitable trades were in the low 20% to 30% - not something you want to use in trading.

This just further showed and proved to me that PRICE is Lord, King, Queen and Country, has NO master and knows NO rules.

I strongly believe that there is nothing new in trading – not now or in the future.

Those websites and scam artists with their “black box” fancy algorithms, neural networks and “secret” trading systems are just that – scammers.

It further proves to me that studying PRICE and everything associated with PRICE is the ONLY way to trade and trade for consistent profits.

Yes, there are times when my cycles and momentum line up with PASR and when they do, it’s magic. The same is true for indicators. When they line up, they too, are magic.

Unfortunately new, inexperienced and less technically knowledgable traders don’t realise this “lining up” is the exception and definitely NOT the rule. They “blindly” trade the indicator believing (if they ever thought about it) that PRICE follows the indicator and wonder why they have more losers than winners.

I still have cycle and momentum on my trading charts BUT I only pay attention to them when they line up (confluence) with PASR. I do not use them for analysis in any way shape or form.

The ONLY way to trade with consistent profit is with PASR.

I no longer “waste” my time and energies on cycles and momentum and instead practice and learn everything I can about PRICE and PRICE ACTION.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,590
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:53pm Dec 17, 2009 1:53pm
Hello all,


I just wanted to thank Strat and Blackeagle for the excellent lessons this week. Strat has given us some great insight to what can happen when the big boys are away on their yachts. but there has also been great discussion on identifying possible trend changes. Only time will tell which is the case and I will follow the Queen wherever she leads me.

Strats post 8567 was extremely helpful to me in reminding us of how simple this really can be. Follow the trend and trade the opportunities the trend presents with the proper back stops.

I also look forward to more quizzes from Blackeagle, His posts are always one to pay special attention to.



Many thanks, Poncho
" I can read the left side of the chart, the right side's a Bitch!
  • #8,591
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:30pm Dec 17, 2009 2:30pm
[quote=poncho1;3314688]Hello all,


I just wanted to thank Strat and Blackeagle for the excellent lessons this week. Strat has given us some great insight to what can happen when the big boys are away on their yachts. but there has also been great discussion on identifying possible trend changes. Only time will tell which is the case and I will follow the Queen wherever she leads me.

Strats post 8567 was extremely helpful to me in reminding us of how simple this really can be. Follow the trend and trade the opportunities the trend presents with the proper back stops.

I also look forward to more quizzes from Blackeagle, His posts are always one to pay special attention to.

Second that, more quizzes humbly enjoyed

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,592
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:39pm Dec 17, 2009 2:39pm
big boss and boss are down. i have a resistance line at 1.6950 which price is testing. the price is also testing the trendline. this day is forming beob bar.

can anyone comment this?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-10-14daily.jpg Size: 90 KB
  • #8,593
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:41pm Dec 17, 2009 2:41pm
Quoting mstandifer
Poor choice of wording on my part....
Reading Mst's posts, I've been noticing how many trades are apparent after the fact. After looking at Strat's usd/cad chart I got what it was: I'm used to seeing the patterns with the candles that follow! Like in this chart.

Somehow my mind isn't quite focused on the PA itself, the pattern I'm looking for, BEFORE the confirming candle that indicates one is in profit and can take the stop loss to B/E. Hope I'm clear.

Of course by then it may be late, so off goes another trade...withoooooout me

That's what was so good about Blackeagle's quiz and maybe more examples without the following candle could help me ppuore lidle brein to recognize before the train has left Waterloo Station.

Maybe another penny?

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,594
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:50pm Dec 17, 2009 2:50pm
Thank You Strat for your kind reply.I will register with Naws if not registered allready and next learn to attach charts.
  • #8,595
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:57pm Dec 17, 2009 2:57pm
Quoting BaliuxXx
big boss and boss are down. i have a resistance line at 1.6950 which price is testing. the price is also testing the trendline. this day is forming beob bar.

can anyone comment this?
Yeah it is on my radar, along with EURGBP, the only problem is that it is not a good looking BEOB - Strat would call it a Bond BEOB lol! The body is to small compared to its tails. It looks more like a neutral bar to me.

One more hour till close but small chances to see any improvement. I'll pass...
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,596
  • Dec 17, 2009 3:07pm Dec 17, 2009 3:07pm
Quoting soso
Yeah it is on my radar, along with EURGBP, the only problem is that it is not a good looking BEOB - Strat would call it a Bond BEOB lol! The body is to small compared to its tails. It looks more like a neutral bar to me.

One more hour till close but small chances to see any improvement. I'll pass...
persuaded
  • #8,597
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:42pm Dec 17, 2009 4:42pm
Quoting BaliuxXx
big boss and boss are down. i have a resistance line at 1.6950 which price is testing. the price is also testing the trendline. this day is forming beob bar.

can anyone comment this?
You have drawn an invalid and incorrect TL.

If you draw the correct and valid TL you will see and find something else.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,598
  • Dec 17, 2009 5:20pm Dec 17, 2009 5:20pm
Since, for some reason, you like my past trades, here’s one from a year ago.

Buy order above Hammer at 1

Failed to trigger so buy order above IB at 2

Failed to trigger so buy order above Hammer at 3

Failed to trigger so buy order above IB at 4

SL pulled in on partial positions under Shooting Star at 5

Positions added above Hammer at 6

SL pulled in on partial positions under doji at 7

Positions added above Hammer at 8

Positions added above doji at 9

SL pulled in on partial positions under BEEB at 10

Positions added above IB at 11

SL pulled in at 12 on partial positions from Hammer/Swing Low

Positions added above BUOB at 13

Positions added above IB at 14

SL pulled in on partial positions under Shooting Star at 15

Positions added above tweezer bottom at 16

Positions added above Hammer at 17

SL pulled in on partial positions under BEOB at 18

Positions added above doji at 19

Buy order above IB at 20 failed to trigger

Positions added above Hammer at 21

Closed all positions below doji at 22
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy trade.gif Size: 38 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,599
  • Edited 8:27pm Dec 17, 2009 8:22pm | Edited 8:27pm
Here is a setup I nearly took, but did not.

Price broke below the SS from yesterday, and although the trend is still down here's why I decided not to take it:

 

  1. Candle closed above 50sma.
  2. Shorting below the bottom of the candle would be right into the 20/50 trap area.
  3. Minor support in the 88.00 - 88.50 area.
  4. Price seems to be recently using the 20ema as support.
  5. Price is forming HH, HL as shown by the short term trendline.

If you took the short it could still turn out to be profitable, but there are some good reasons to see it as a high risk position, not least of which is the low liquidity of the market presently.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy daily ss.gif Size: 31 KB

  • #8,600
  • Dec 18, 2009 1:09am Dec 18, 2009 1:09am
This seems like a good time for me to close the trades I have running and come back next year and do it all over again.
Since my return from the UK in April, and I started reading (then re-reading) this thread, I find it hard to describe how much my confidence, patience and understanding of PASR has grown (not to mention my account balances).
For someone who used to take 8 trades a day, I'm down to 8 trades in 8 months, with a hit rate of 7-1. + 34.43% ROI.
Thanks Strat and everyone else who makes this a wonderful learning place.

Wishing all a Merry Christmas and Happy new year,

Roy
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: NZDUSD Daily.PNG Size: 40 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD Daily1.PNG Size: 32 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD Daily.PNG Size: 27 KB
Polishing my crystal ball
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