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  • #8,561
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:12pm Dec 16, 2009 3:12pm
Quoting soso
There's a lot of head banging lately between us & Strat & other pros here (or is it as usual? ), mainly related to taking trades that dont look good, or they are countertrend trades.

I think this collision of opinions is directly related to the current market structure of any pair against USD. Take AUDUSD since its being talked right now, the Daily chart, did the trend change? We clearly have LH & LL so did it change? Or is still UP in spite of those LHs & LLs? There is no right answer at this point.

Have a look at the correction that...
What I see often is that market ranges a lot and that is normal. I f anybody likes basics, the Martin Pring's "Introduction to TA" is interesting. He points out at some stage talking about moving averages, that a) they act as moving suppport, b) when the get crossed, if the angle of the MA is up, probably they will give a range and then more up. (Hope u can read attachs). So, where are the MAs right now? 100,250?

So, either one learns to trade a range without stress or just let it go.

My two pennies

Spinner
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: Martin rping.jpg Size: 217 KB
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,562
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:31pm Dec 16, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting Spinner
What I see often is that market ranges a lot and that is normal. I f anybody likes basics, the Martin Pring's "Introduction to TA" is interesting. He points out at some stage talking about moving averages, that a) they act as moving suppport, b) when the get crossed, if the angle of the MA is up, probably they will give a range and then more up. (Hope u can read attachs). So, where are the MAs right now? 100,250?

So, either one learns to trade a range without stress or just let it go.

My two pennies

Spinner
Good points Mr Pring makes, I believe. There was a discussion between me & Strat not long ago about the MAs showing the trend and the conclusion was that PA is the right way to read the trend - reading the trend out of PA is more like an art than science, eh?
Although MAs can help one get a quick perspective.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,563
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:33pm Dec 16, 2009 3:33pm
Strat, i've been studying brian marber's methods recently, and in doing so i've taken myself back to the beginning of the path, now at page 30,studying every post and chart, can't believe i missed so much! I read, but didn't Understand! ( for our non uk traders, brian marber is a technical analysist with over 40 years experience, and has worked at some of the most prestigious companies, both stockbrokers and fx, he does not use any funnymentals, believing everything is already contained in price).

I'm sure you're aware of his ideas, but he has set rules for trend changes. I must admit i am only in the early days of studying him, a lot of his ideas seem sound, but the results are as yet inconclusive for me.
But to explain briefly, for a trend to change, price should obviously have to first break a trendline that we have drawn on our charts. His rules for a genuine break of a trendline are:
for stocks 3%, as per Edwards and Magee
for share indexes 2%
for fx 1%.
for bond or currency indices 0.5%

Once the trendline break has been confirmed, then a trend reversal will only be confirmed when: (for an uptrend)
1. the t/l has been broken by the required %, depending on the mkt being watched.
2.A new t/l has been drawn, adhering to the following rules;
H, L, LH, LL e.g for Aus/Usd as thats been mentioned a few times.
3. the last significant low on the way up has been broken at 3 successive closes.

I suppose my question is, do you think there is much merit in this, because as you said, in your experience, price can take out the expected levels, but then cheerfully resumes the previous trend.

Cheers
  • #8,564
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:00pm Dec 16, 2009 4:00pm
Quoting golfer27
Strat, i've been studying brian marber's methods recently, and in doing so i've taken myself back to the beginning of the path, now at page 30,studying every post and chart, can't believe i missed so much! I read, but didn't Understand! ( for our non uk traders, brian marber is a technical analysist with over 40 years experience, and has worked at some of the most prestigious companies, both stockbrokers and fx, he does not use any funnymentals, believing everything is already contained in price).

I'm sure you're aware of his ideas, but he has...
When you devise a system/set of rules, you understand it like no-one else so it is what works for him.

For me, I just look at PRICE across the BOSS and BIG BOSS and the swings relative to SR to "SEE" a trend change. Our MAs also help.

I used to use a break of a "Root" TL confirmed by several swing extremes followed by the next higher/lower swing.

However, all this is mechanical trading and PRICE is not mechanical. PRICE is Lord, King, Queen and Country, has no master and knows no rules.

PRICE WILL, and DOES, do what it wants regardless of our rules.

This is how I explain the mess that goes on in complex wave 4 corrections.

Remember, we want the MEAT in the trend - the fat part where the trend is FIRM and ESTABLISHED.

Leave the exact trend change to those with fat wallets who think they can call tops and bottoms.

Don't stress yourselves about trend change - let it confirm itself FIRST.

For example, the talking heads have us believe that EURUSD has changed to a Bear trend. Do I believe it? No. A look at the BOSS tells me we are in a correction, but trend change, no.

Am I bothered? No. Am I trading it? No. Am I frustrated because I didn't trade it? No.

I would much rather trade the trend resumption until such time as I SEE the trend has changed.

Learn to RELAX at such times - there is LOTS of market STILL to trade.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,565
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:30pm Dec 16, 2009 4:30pm
My trading wallet is certainly not fat enough to be calling trend changes!
It was bothering me as to how you can succesfully apply such mechanical rules to price, obviously it works for him but then again they're his rules.
I have adopted a few things which to me make sense, but as you point out, we only need to get the meat, to make a good return. A good understanding of PASR will do this.So back to page 31, it's amazing how much info i missed on the first read, i've read my old posts and where's that hole in the ground?

Much appreciation
  • #8,566
  • Edited 5:21pm Dec 16, 2009 5:19pm | Edited 5:21pm
Quoting hcristea
Maybe there are no basic PASR setups right now. Be patient and wait for them to come to you. That's what I'm doing.

I've been reading this thread for few months and I took only 3 trades. 2 of them were winners and one was a looser (i know why, I took a setup that wasnt there on AUDUSD).

P.S. And while I'm waiting I make trips to the begining of the path, from time to time It's fun!
Poor choice of wording on my part. It isn't that I'm seeking setups and am just wanting to trade...quite the opposite. I am having difficulty 'seeing' the actual setup when it occurs.

Take PistolDave's recent trade for example. I saw it once he pointed it out but I passed it by not because I didn't think it was a good trade but because I simply didn't see it like that. I saw Strat's explanation but the point I'm trying to make here is that I need to see some recent real world examples of proper PASR trades taken.

I've always been an emulator. Once I see something a few times in action, I can usually duplicate it flawlessly. That's why I so much appreciated Strat's recent accounting of his EURJPY trade series (the one that was deleted). I managed to save it before that though so it still serves me well.

Hope that clears it up. I am seeking knowledge not trades
-m

P.S. It could also be that I've spent more time recently just reading and studying this thread than chart reading. I've taken a break from F12 for a bit. I can only stare at it for so long before it just looks like Christmas lights.
  • #8,567
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:32pm Dec 16, 2009 5:32pm
Quoting mstandifer
Poor choice of wording on my part....
But surely you saw these?
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,568
  • Dec 16, 2009 6:04pm Dec 16, 2009 6:04pm
Quoting strat
But surely you saw these?
Here is my chart on the points you circled. My charts are FXPro too by the way on this one (IBFX were even worse).

The first 3 points on the chart (starting from the left) weren't qualifying bars on my chart.

The first on mine was only an IB where yours is an SS. That particular swing developed without any PA on my charts.

The second on mine was a doji followed by a BEEB but at that time I wasn't too clear on whether the entire bar needed to be outside or just the bar...but still nowhere near a clear signal on my chart.

Your 3rd and 4th points on my chart aren't even close to looking tradeable on mine and the SS on that 4th wasn't at a swing high on my charts so I didn't take it.

Your 5th point was the only spot on my chart that shows as being tradeable on mine but I was spending that week studying and not looking at live charts for trading purposes (sigh).

So perhaps my frustration at my broker's data feed is a bit more understandable after seeing the lack of clear trading signals on my chart.

To have been able to trade those points on my chart I would had to have taken DSRI bounces only (which I'm not supposed to be doing and at that point I wouldn't have been comfortable with in any case).

Maybe I need to get a UK demo account. Those charts seem to have tradeable swings in any case. I am DEFINITELY open to suggestions here.
-m
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  • #8,569
  • Edited 8:27pm Dec 16, 2009 7:24pm | Edited 8:27pm
FINALLY!!! Bars that actually look like real price reversal bars at swings!

OK...my OCD itch has been scratched. I can finally make some headway here.
-m
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  • #8,570
  • Dec 16, 2009 11:15pm Dec 16, 2009 11:15pm
Quoting mstandifer
FINALLY!!! Bars that actually look like real price reversal bars at swings!

OK...my OCD itch has been scratched. I can finally make some headway here.
-m
Whatever charts you decide to use i would recommend using just those for your trade entries and exits. I used to look at 3 different feeds and i had myself all screwed up! I would try not to get too caught up on it otherwise you will be pissed every time you see a good candle on someone else's charts. One of my rules now is to only trade my feed that i have choosen to take my entries and exits off of.
  • #8,571
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:05am Dec 17, 2009 12:05am
Quoting Grimweasel
Cable - some odd price action on my feed - almost a succession of IBs the price is winding up for a move.
This is what I have on cable. My SR is at 1.6100 though we can see it as a thick line between 1.6100-1.6150 as it is a recent SR, not a major one. Because it is a recent one, actually I prefer using that blue DSRI line (better respected than SR at the moment) for my range trading method which is not the subject of this thread. But considering the PA since October and bigger picture for 2009, I still favor longs (unless 1.57 major SR is broken) when opportunities present themselves with PASR.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,572
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:41am Dec 17, 2009 12:41am
Quoting PistolDave
Placed an open order to sell on a stop if yesterday's BEEB is broken by 10 pips.
Look how 0.7100 major SR and 100 MA are providing support (even on today's Asian session USD rally, price didn't go below 0.7100 though today's bar is still running). Decisive break of 0.7100 will increase the odds of trend change, IMO.
  • #8,573
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:01am Dec 17, 2009 1:01am
Quoting Lou
OMG... what was I thinking?
I was presented with this set up about 25 hrs ago.
A/U Daily
We have following facts:

1- Nov. SS on Big Boss
2- Dec. looks like another SS (inside bar) on Big Boss (current position)
3- Those SSs emerged from 0.9330 SR
4- H&S formation on Boss and Worker which is sitting on a good location for trend reversal.
5- Breakout of 9 month long DSRI and TL
6- Several PAs on Boss and Worker from 0.9330 SR
7- Breach of 0.8985 SR (today's bar but not closed yet)

On the other hand, we have

1- 0.8850 SR next
2- 100 MA on the way
3- Not an obvious LL-LH (until today's bar)

The price has been in a range between October and now and today's and tomorrow's PA will be very important to decide about overall trend. A close below 0.8850 and 100 MA will cause to think that the uptrend since March has ended considering the facts above.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,574
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:09am Dec 17, 2009 1:09am
Quoting kiwipom
Hi all
My MT4 feed only goes back to 2003 on the EUR CAD pair and was wondering if there is more data previous to this (cant remember when the Euro was launched)?
If there is more data could someone post me a chart please. Would be really interested what the bottom is for this pair (so far)..
Here you are with complete SR lines on it. Hope this helps.
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  • #8,575
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:41am Dec 17, 2009 1:41am
Quoting mstandifer
Blackeagle, can we get your followup comments to the 'quiz'?
Sure you can.

As many of you guessed, it was EURNZD chart.

On daily chart, we have HH-HL-HH and not confirmed yet HL (if Dec 14th low not breached), all respecting major SRs that is enough to suspect that the possible trend change is underway (I give more weight to HH-HL/LH-LL patterns to decide about trend changes together with SRs, but that is my style, you may use TLs or other instruments to determine possible trend changes). And these HH-HL patterns are obvious on the Boss chart, too.

Although I didn't attach the Big Boss chart, did any of you (the ones who didn't know it was EURNZD) figure out from weekly or check (the ones who knew it was EURNZD) Big Boss chart to see what PA Big Boss is showing?

Therefore, I have quite a few encouraging signs showing that the trend has been reversing but I'll have a better opinion about this reversal if 2.12 major SR is broken, IMO. If October lows are breached, then forget about trend reversal.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,576
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:09am Dec 17, 2009 2:09am
Quoting Blackeagle
Here you are with complete SR lines on it. Hope this helps.
Much appreciated Blackeagle Thankyou.
Your AU analysis aint to bad either. No seriously i find this priceless to get an experienced traders perception of the "possible trend change scenario" which we are facing on some pairs at the moment.
Especially considering this is the first possible trend change for me, in the time that i have been trading/learning.
Again thankyou.
PASR student.
  • #8,577
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:25am Dec 17, 2009 2:25am
Quoting soso
There's a lot of head banging lately between us & Strat & other pros here (or is it as usual? ), mainly related to taking trades that dont look good, or they are countertrend trades.

I think this collision of opinions is directly related to the current market structure of any pair against USD. Take AUDUSD since its being talked right now, the Daily chart, did the trend change? We clearly have LH & LL so did it change? Or is still UP in spite of those LHs & LLs? There is no right answer at this point.

Have a look at the correction that...
Very good points Soso, and good comparison of AUDUSD June-July PA to today's. Determining trend change early is surely giving an edge in trading but that is not we are after here. Therefore, I agree with Strat re. confirmation of trend and then trade.
  • #8,578
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:18am Dec 17, 2009 4:18am
Speaking of edges? Cable looks like a classical breakout pullback scenario from J16? What I really like about this trade is that on the boss chart there is confluence with the retest the 25 MA and the break of the DSRI lines drawn. Also look at the target support at 1.57ish, the 50 is coming to meet it !!! More confluence? However, these are only legitimate with the appropriate PA.

By the way the lower chart is a weekly chart I named it incorrectly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cable.GIF Size: 48 KB
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  • #8,579
  • Dec 17, 2009 6:06am Dec 17, 2009 6:06am
Quoting Donadoney
Speaking of edges? Cable looks like a classical breakout pullback scenario from J16? What I really like about this trade is that on the boss chart there is confluence with the retest the 25 MA and the break of the DSRI lines drawn. Also look at the target support at 1.57ish, the 50 is coming to meet it !!! More confluence? However, these are only legitimate with the appropriate PA.

By the way the lower chart is a weekly chart I named it incorrectly.
Yes I see that. Maybe today will close as a BEEB? That enough PA?

Spinner
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,580
  • Dec 17, 2009 6:35am Dec 17, 2009 6:35am
Hello Stat+team
Newbie I have been Lurking/learning on this Fantastic thread now for some time now and would like to thank everyone that posts on this thread for sharing as I have learMay I give my first analasis post on usd/chf.As i under stand big boss is looking long even though it has not closed,Boss is up and so is the worker.we have han a double bottom at support and round numer 9900 and now trend looks to have reversed.I am watching it for a retracment around 10600 and may enter on a pull back with PASR.
Please feel free comment on my First anallasis with out hold any thing back.Sorry I no not know how to attach a chart from IG Index
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