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  • #8,521
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:26am Dec 15, 2009 11:26am
Quoting strat
Thanks Alexandra and Blackeagle for your very valuable comments and input on EURUSD and USDCHF.

Accepting the differences, we can work together to stay on the "right" side of the market.

Precisely......That said, it does seem to my crazy eye that - once again - the ability of USDCHF to close above resistance led the way to a profitable trade, while EURUSD failed to close below the corresponsing support n Friday.

As discussed last week, the dollar does seem to be holding it's own, while yen flows decrease - for the moment.
  • #8,522
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:42am Dec 15, 2009 11:42am
Quoting Alexandra
Precisely......That said, it does seem to my crazy eye that - once again - the ability of USDCHF to close above resistance led the way to a profitable trade, while EURUSD failed to close below the corresponsing support n Friday.

As discussed last week, the dollar does seem to be holding it's own, while yen flows decrease - for the moment.
I didn't have that with my data - EURUSD sat on support and USDCHF stalled at resistance - this was the "edge" I was looking for. Maybe I need new SRs for USDCHF?

Seems like we need a direct Alexandra to Strat line!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,523
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:55am Dec 15, 2009 11:55am
Quoting strat
I didn't have that with my data - EURUSD sat on support and USDCHF stalled at resistance - this was the "edge" I was looking for. Maybe I need new SRs for USDCHF?

Seems like we need a direct Alexandra to Strat line!
LOL - Yes, that was a minimal one, hardly worth a public comment, but nevertheless successful. LOL - I've been told I see what I want in the chart anyway!

A direct line, huh? Hmmmmmm......
  • #8,524
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:31pm Dec 15, 2009 2:31pm
Quoting strat
Exactly, trading both EURUSD & USDCHF at the same time is a double whammy - choose one or the other. I'm more interested in studying each to find who is the leader to give me an "edge".
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I am reading about the comparacement between these two pairs and wondering whether I shall put more study into it or leave it as it is more fundamental knowledge. I find it very interesting, there is so much knowledge between Blackeagle and Alexandra especially with regard to intricacies of each pair, where to start?

If there is an PASR opportunity on both pairs would we not consider entering or just to ignore one and take the other?

Regardshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #8,525
  • Dec 15, 2009 2:51pm Dec 15, 2009 2:51pm
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I am reading about the comparacement between these two pairs and wondering whether I shall put more study into it or leave it as it is more fundamental knowledge. I find it very interesting, there is so much knowledge between Blackeagle and Alexandra especially with regard to intricacies of each pair, where to start?

If there is an PASR opportunity on both pairs would we not consider entering or just to ignore one and take the other?

Regardshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck...
As of today, the correlation of USDCHF to EURUSD is -97.9% meaning that USDCHF is 2.1% shy of being a perfect mirror image of EURUSD.

In simple terms, they move opposite to each other so take your pick and choose the one that moves the most.

If you trade them both then it's 100% correlated trading and you have no diversification - you are either right and happy or wrong and sick as a parrot.

It is rare for this correlation to drop below 93% and when it does it alerts us to changes in the funny mentals.

With respect to knowledge, Blackeagle and Alexandra, they know what to do with that knowledge - would you?

If not, do like me and just follow the technicals on your chart.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,526
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:54pm Dec 15, 2009 3:54pm
Just was playing with the chart and look what I found....playing with s/r lines on the candles

Spinner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,527
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:37pm Dec 15, 2009 4:37pm
Quoting Spinner
Just was playing with the chart and look what I found....playing with s/r lines on the candles

Spinner
Just was playing with the chart and look what I found....playing with s/r lines on the candles

EURUSD M1 ???????????

EURUSD M5 ???????????

EURUSD M30 ???????????

You are obviously more of a play boy than a serious trader.

For those of us who treat trading as a business and don’t “play with SR”, we have known about those levels for years.

Maybe you should go back to “playing” with M1, M5 and M30 rather than wasting your time on here.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,528
  • Edited 5:30pm Dec 15, 2009 5:20pm | Edited 5:30pm
Cable - some odd price action on my feed - almost a succession of IBs the price is winding up for a move.
Interestingly the bottoms of each day have been violated triggering early shorts but the tops of the IBs have not. Could this mean that floor traders are rinsing out the sell orders below the price to get rid of shorts and then hit the stop buys at the top of the range only to force them to sell when they get trapped out of a long.

The controlling candle is still the spinning top sort of Doji from 9/12. This is where the orders will be; above, below that candle.

I'm looking for a short explosion out of this range but I will be patient and let the market show me what it's decided!

(Ignore my green line on chart -it's a demo monthly shooter trade; I removed the SR level at 1.6262 for clarity too but the closes are sitting right on top of it!)
Attached Image
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,529
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:51pm Dec 15, 2009 6:51pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Cable - some odd price action on my feed - almost a succession of IBs the price is winding up for a move.
Interestingly the bottoms of each day have been violated triggering early shorts but the tops of the IBs have not. Could this mean that floor traders are rinsing out the sell orders below the price to get rid of shorts and then hit the stop buys at the top of the range only to force them to sell when they get trapped out of a long.

The controlling candle is still the spinning top sort of Doji from 9/12. This is where the orders will be; above,...
Hi Grimweasel,

Please don't take it wrong way. Unless you play the break, I don't think it is a good RR because after the PA candle there will be major support level below.
  • #8,530
  • Dec 15, 2009 7:05pm Dec 15, 2009 7:05pm
Placed an open order to sell on a stop if yesterday's BEEB is broken by 10 pips.

0.7300 is a minor resistance level, and is the 50fib from the 0.7524 to 0.7025 swing high/low (using closing prices).

Price has also bounced off the 50sma twice in the last few days and seems to be serving as resistance.

Yesterday's candle closed below the 20 and is now below the 20/50 trap area.

It also appears that the pair is in a trading range from 0.7300 to 0.7050 so the bottom of the range should be a target.

Looking for an ATM to make it to 0.7055 and if it does I get to open my 130 pip Christmas gift.

Dave

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  • #8,531
  • Dec 15, 2009 7:21pm Dec 15, 2009 7:21pm
I think gbpusd is in a nasty range, play anything in middle of the range is high risk.
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  • #8,532
  • Dec 15, 2009 7:42pm Dec 15, 2009 7:42pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Cable - some odd price action on my feed - almost a succession of IBs the price is winding up for a move.
Interestingly the bottoms of each day have been violated triggering early shorts but the tops of the IBs have not. Could this mean that floor traders are rinsing out the sell orders below the price to get rid of shorts and then hit the stop buys at the top of the range only to force them to sell when they get trapped out of a long.

The controlling candle is still the spinning top sort of Doji from 9/12. This is where the orders will be; above,...
It looks like it could make a move out of the congestion area down to the 1.6040 area for an ATM. But then again, who knows.

Is this a PASR trade?
  • #8,533
  • Dec 15, 2009 8:04pm Dec 15, 2009 8:04pm
Quoting strat
As of today, the correlation of USDCHF to EURUSD is -97.9% meaning that USDCHF is 2.1% shy of being a perfect mirror image of EURUSD.

In simple terms, they move opposite to each other so take your pick and choose the one that moves the most.

If you trade them both then it's 100% correlated trading and you have no diversification - you are either right and happy or wrong and sick as a parrot.

It is rare for this correlation to drop below 93% and when it does it alerts us to changes in the funny mentals.

With respect to knowledge, Blackeagle...
Sure Strat, following what the charts show me still requires all the knowledge that we get from you, Blackeagle, Alexandra and others and there is plenty of it - the data. However it is still worth to know the other information that might shed a light how this all work. I am afraid that knowing too much might confuse me too much in the end and not give me any advantage at all.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #8,534
  • Dec 15, 2009 8:45pm Dec 15, 2009 8:45pm
Quoting strat
[b][i][color=blue][font=Arial]Trend Lines - I see some TLs on here that are drawn from just a few candles and some that go back weeks or months even. I have some long-term TLs on my charts that have recently broken and may become DSRI (I am not at the DSRI stage yet btw) but for now price has escaped them - ie EU, AU, NZDUSD, USDCHF. For all these longer term TL's I have used a line chart and drawn from closes.

Where I am confused is drawing trend lines with more recent data. I assumed that we would use the close and I have been drawing TLs from...
Thank you Strat. I do not make assumptions, the only answer I want is the opinions of those qualified to give them and the reasoning and just the fact that you, Blackeagle, Alexandra, Baba G et. al. take the time to hgelp us is heart-warming. I too studied science Strat, your comment on "moving forward in a logical manner" makes a lot of sense to me.

Thank you, a few pieces have fallen into place and my charts are a lot tidier. That said, I will play with trend lines on historical data as they have been of a lot of benefit to me in the past.

Arigatou gozaimasu,

FE
  • #8,535
  • Dec 15, 2009 10:49pm Dec 15, 2009 10:49pm
OMG... what was I thinking?
I was presented with this set up about 25 hrs ago.
A/U Daily Line (close) Chart.
I have been testing looking for M formations in down moves on Worker or Boss.
Or similar W formations in up moves.
So there I was... seeing that price had bounced up off of the V middle of the M up to the blue DSRI and then down again to the 1.9125 area. Right at the base of the V. The M was formed. This is my signal to consider a trade.

1. Direction on Big B and B is down.
2. There is a bounce down off of the DSRI to the red line
I was looking for one more reason to short at the red line.

Price had stopped at the red line for quite awhile. Going nowhere. Finally I had to go to bed. Did not feel confident so, did not put on a trade.
Well.... you can see the result.

As I reflect on this non trade:
I think the word 'feel' here is important.
If I had been thinking correctly and not feeling, I could have considered the fact that PA had earlier also bounced lower off of the 20 MA . This could have been my 'one more reason'.

Any other observations would be appreciated.
Stand and Deliver.
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  • #8,536
  • Dec 15, 2009 11:45pm Dec 15, 2009 11:45pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Did some spread analysis this weekend and I may take a few pairs off my watch list, regardless of PA as the spreads with my broker are too wide.

EurNzd is 25 pips, so 50 pip round trip before any profits or added to losses!
GbpCad is 10 pips, so 20 pip round trip
EurCad is 10 pips, 20 pips round trip
GbpAud is 15 pips, 30 pips round trip

Plus, they use the mid price of the spread to close the trade which is a bit naughty I believe as you are then robbed of the spread above/below that mid price I think? Unless I have this bit wrong?
Hey Grim,


These PIP values should only be half of that. We only pay the Spread one way.
  • #8,537
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:58am Dec 16, 2009 2:58am
Hi all


Thankyou to Strat and Blackeagle for replys to my previous post, as always i learned from this. It is good to be in the "Off yer rocker" club lol and yes Strat my BOSS also thinks i am in this club especially with particular regard to trading, as she thinks its impossible to take money from what she considers to be fresh air.

Anyway
My MT4 feed only goes back to 2003 on the EUR CAD pair and was wondering if there is more data previous to this (cant remember when the Euro was launched)?
If there is more data could someone post me a chart please. Would be really interested what the bottom is for this pair (so far)..
Much appreciated in advance.

On another note
US JPN pair
I really enjoyed, learned from and appreciated the debate on the US JPN pair and will following this to see how it pans out. Maybe the more experienced members can continue to comment when significant developments occur. I find it enlightening how different traders see things and what they see is the deciding factor for them thus far. I will be watching to see what is the crucial piece of the puzzle which decides the fate of this pair one way or another.

Thankyou, goodluck, godbless
PASR student.
  • #8,538
  • Dec 16, 2009 3:52am Dec 16, 2009 3:52am
Quoting strat
Just was playing with the chart and look what I found....playing with s/r lines on the candles...
Playboy when it come to fun, serious when it comes to trading.

The difference for me in those s/r lines, is that I drew them to the top/bottom of the candles and not using close prices. Then I noticed that there were coincidences of price at some candle shadows. Usually I was using the line/close charts for this. This case just looks different.

Spinner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur usd 2 2009-12-16_09-40.jpg Size: 108 KB
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,539
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:23am Dec 16, 2009 4:23am
[quote=Lou;3309219]OMG... what was I thinking?


Price had stopped at the red line for quite awhile. Going nowhere. Finally I had to go to bed. Did not feel confident so, did not put on a trade.
Well.... you can see the result.

Lou, I would not call this stress free trading if you are sitting watching the one eyed monster waiting for the right entry. Surely the decision should be made on the evidence of the previous days candles and the relevant buy/sell order put in place.

On my chart there was a double SS on the 2nd and 3rd December both bouncing off an old Demand DSRI (acting as resistance). Placing a sell order below the second SS would have been a safer stress free entry IMHO.

Nick
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  • #8,540
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:35am Dec 16, 2009 4:35am
[quote=Nick'em;3309834]
Quoting Lou
OMG... what was I thinking?


Price had stopped at the red line for quite awhile. Going nowhere. Finally I had to go to bed. Did not feel confident so, did not put on a trade.
Well.... you can see the result.
Quoting Lou

Lou, I would not call this stress free trading if you are sitting watching the one eyed monster waiting for the right entry. Surely the decision should be made on the evidence of the previous days candles and the relevant buy/sell order put in place.

On my chart there was a double SS on the 2nd and 3rd December both bouncing off an old Demand DSRI (acting as resistance). Placing a sell order below the second SS would have been a safer stress free entry IMHO.

Nick
Mate, i have been on acid and funky pills, what r u smokin? i guess u can see proper. STRAT?
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