Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1395 | Forex Factory

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #27,881
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:22am Dec 17, 2009 12:22am
Sailor

I had the benefit of another 8 candles to look at

hind sight the answer for everything

probably would have done the same as you at the time

whos got the crystal ball tonight
  • #27,882
  • Dec 17, 2009 12:47am Dec 17, 2009 12:47am
Quoting frenz
Sailor

I had the benefit of another 8 candles to look at

hind sight the answer for everything

probably would have done the same as you at the time

whos got the crystal ball tonight
Sailor - as Frenz says, hindsight trading is a lot easier than real time trading, but just to add my two pence (if you don't mind)...

As well as the bullish hammer you were referring to forming in a down trend (as you yourself mention), note how price had only just broken down through the major ma's on the 1h timeframe (50ema/50sma/62ema). Price often makes a retrace to retest/validate the broken ma before continuing in the direction of the break.

MA's, like support and resistance, don't always obey the "rules" but the break/retest play is always something to have your third eye on

Macc
  • #27,883
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:06am Dec 17, 2009 1:06am
Quoting macc
Sailor - as Frenz says, hindsight trading is a lot easier than real time trading, but just to add my two pence (if you don't mind)...

As well as the bullish hammer you were referring to forming in a down trend (as you yourself mention), note how price had only just broken down through the major ma's on the 1h timeframe (50ema/50sma/62ema). Price often makes a retrace to retest/validate the broken ma before continuing in the direction of the break.

MA's, like support and resistance, don't always obey the "rules" but the break/retest play is always...
yes you right, better first to focus on higher timeframe....what about your view now on GU, i see some high volume on H1 (Hammer with wick)also on support area.
Trade with the momentum
  • #27,884
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:14am Dec 17, 2009 1:14am
action on the half hour

That 62 trade would have been nice if you had waited a bit
  • #27,885
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:17am Dec 17, 2009 1:17am
maybe get a live skype feed into pipinole

he should be able to bag you a hundred or so pips in the next hour
  • #27,886
  • Dec 17, 2009 1:38am Dec 17, 2009 1:38am
Quoting sailor68
yes you right, better first to focus on higher timeframe....what about your view now on GU, i see some high volume on H1 (Hammer with wick)also on support area.
I guess that bad news on retail sales will make a few minds up on where to take GU next. If the 16200 support area is out of the way then I guess 16000 and beyond can be brought into view.

As has been said here before, there will still be short-term plays both ways and we should look for pa to show us the way.

Macc
  • #27,887
  • Dec 17, 2009 3:04am Dec 17, 2009 3:04am
Anyone took longs on gu off 16100? Seems to me it may retrace to 35/50.
  • #27,888
  • Dec 17, 2009 3:24am Dec 17, 2009 3:24am
Quoting perez
Anyone took longs on gu off 16100? Seems to me it may retrace to 35/50.
with all due respect what do you see that leads you to this thinking ?
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #27,889
  • Dec 17, 2009 3:35am Dec 17, 2009 3:35am
Short off the 10 took 12 pips

not that convinced of the down move
  • #27,890
  • Dec 17, 2009 3:45am Dec 17, 2009 3:45am
Quoting PippiNole
PA!!

We had a flat 4hr, 1hr and 15 min candle at a big number.
Pippi, what do you mean by flat candle?
  • #27,891
  • Dec 17, 2009 3:52am Dec 17, 2009 3:52am
I went long off the spike low seemed pretty sensible at the time

seemed even more sensible after i went short at the 10 ma
no reason it wont continue north
  • #27,892
  • Dec 17, 2009 3:54am Dec 17, 2009 3:54am
Quoting Gladis Night
with all due respect what do you see that leads you to this thinking ?
Hammer on 15M and a gap far in a downward trend. Quite risky, but jumped in 16095, SL at BE.
  • #27,893
  • Dec 17, 2009 4:03am Dec 17, 2009 4:03am
Gladys n

if you have a look at other charts and PPA when it starts to creep towards the double 00 round numbers and eventually pushes through stop losses are triggered sending it down a quick 15 or so pips
unless some big ticket news item is pushing it it will generally bounce back to around the 20s

today it already moved 180 pips since the open so it will slow up its pretty close to the average daily range
the news wasnt that big an event

have a look at the following numbers 18 -21 33-36 62 -64 83- 86

these arent set in stone but a lot happens there
  • #27,894
  • Dec 17, 2009 5:17am Dec 17, 2009 5:17am
Good morning/afternoon, fellows

Here are my 2 cents.
Descending triangle on 15M.
News in 15 min. And because of Xmass, jobs could be better then expected.
I think GU will drop more.
From the other hand, since open GU lost over 250 pips, and 6100 is holding over 3 hours.

What do I know?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 15min.jpg Size: 65 KB
  • #27,895
  • Dec 17, 2009 6:25am Dec 17, 2009 6:25am
Quoting Komissar
Good morning/afternoon, fellows

Here are my 2 cents.
Descending triangle on 15M.
News in 15 min. And because of Xmass, jobs could be better then expected.
I think GU will drop more.
From the other hand, since open GU lost over 250 pips, and 6100 is holding over 3 hours.

What do I know?
The triangle was broken but in the wrong direction

I'm not an expert but I think there was a flat/tweezer bottom which occured at the lower wick of the last hammer. For me it looked a bit more bullish. But what do I know?
  • #27,896
  • Dec 17, 2009 6:37am Dec 17, 2009 6:37am
Quoting MCFly
The triangle was broken but in the wrong direction

I'm not an expert but I think there was a flat/tweezer bottom which occured at the lower wick of the last hammer. For me it looked a bit more bullish. But what do I know?
Yeah, GU broke it in the wrong direction.
She played kind of double bottom.
  • #27,897
  • Dec 17, 2009 7:36am Dec 17, 2009 7:36am
You have got to check this PDF out - it is full of information that I never knew existed.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf ForexCheatSheet.pdf   415 KB | 459 downloads
  • #27,898
  • Dec 17, 2009 7:51am Dec 17, 2009 7:51am
Short at 1.6131 when the price couldn't close above the 21ma. Hoping the 5 and 10 hold and she continues south.
Cap
  • #27,899
  • Dec 17, 2009 8:42am Dec 17, 2009 8:42am
I'm short E/J after the 1 hr inverted hammer and the retest of the 15 min 50 ema. The 1 hr inverted hammer bounced from the 38% fibo.
  • #27,900
  • Dec 17, 2009 8:55am Dec 17, 2009 8:55am
Quoting MCFly
I'm short E/J after the 1 hr inverted hammer and the retest of the 15 min 50 ema. The 1 hr inverted hammer bounced from the 38% fibo.
I closed the half after the candle rejected to close below the 35 sma and banked 15 pips. The rest was stopped out at break even.
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