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EURUSD

  • #172,901
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:25pm Dec 16, 2009 4:25pm
whats everyone thinking, a little descent to 1.5 again and then a proper correction up to 23.6% or or 38.2% fib lines from 15141/14505 =

14655

14748

then we'll see where we're at and go from there? i agree with the bulls, im not sure that there is going to be such a drastic to continue this fall...daily is oversold, 8hr is nearly there.... i know that they sometimes not much to go by but makes you think...
  • #172,902
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:32pm Dec 16, 2009 4:32pm
Quote
The most important thing if you read my thread is, trade small position sizes....I made the fundamental mistake of trying to experiment with big lots for quick gains quick with my system because well, I have confidence in my system and when you try to outsmart the markets, they slap you around everytime.....

but if you look at the recent weeks gains, utilizing the smallest lot sizes one can take on a under $100 account, the gains are quite spectacular.....now imagine compounding that overtime and using the same risks...not too bad....the part that...

Yes..i totally agree. I am also using small lot sizes.
  • #172,903
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:33pm Dec 16, 2009 4:33pm
Quoting rattyo
I would have thought Shell, Chevron, Elf these companies etc owned the oil on these tankers.

How does it work?
anyone can own oil and rent a ship to pick it up. try to resell it when price is to advantage.. but a small drop can be bad. you still have to pay for ship at daily rates. you have to have deep pockets in case of drop. there were ships all over the world and smaller companies who speculated oil. some rented ships but could not sell oil. because u.s. storage was full. demand was down.. refineries cut production causing a further glut. then all the guys holding oil dropped prices to get rid of oil. many of the ship owners kept the oil for payment, so they sold free oil cheap.. because oil owner paid to much for the oil. then could not pay for ship rental or crew as time went on and oil dropped. most of those bailed out banks including goldmen were hedged oil then.. money dried up and tada. margin call. bush/paulson/bb are on the tube.. saying pay us, or ill kill the puppy. then in typical (carl rove) style.. point the finger another direction..

add in billions of dollars from regular hedge funds who dont take delivery. rinse and repeat..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #172,904
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:46pm Dec 16, 2009 4:46pm
I think we have a good chance of the climb back to 1.5 then its more than likely to drop.....but when it gets there, we'll have to re-assess....


Quoting jp09
whats everyone thinking, a little descent to 1.5 again and then a proper correction up to 23.6% or or 38.2% fib lines from 15141/14505 =

14655

14748

then we'll see where we're at and go from there? i agree with the bulls, im not sure that there is going to be such a drastic to continue this fall...daily is oversold, 8hr is nearly there.... i know that they sometimes not much to go by but makes you think...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #172,905
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:57pm Dec 16, 2009 4:57pm
Quoting X.Oden
I think we have a good chance of the climb back to 1.5 then its more than likely to drop.....but when it gets there, we'll have to re-assess....
Are you a Warburger sir??

EDIT: Many things point away from your assessment.
  • #172,906
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:01pm Dec 16, 2009 5:01pm
What the hell is a Warburger?

Ok, I found this definition...still have no clue what you mean, but if it makes you happy in thinking so:

means the disquieting, disturbing feeling that is shared by all of us when we talk about war.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #172,907
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:06pm Dec 16, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting X.Oden
What the hell is a Warburger?
Hehe. It's a term used to describe a UBS Warburg trader. Some of whom have been known to intentionally deceit the public to their advantage. I use it in a jokingly manner, a quip.

Seriously, I'm not going to say it can't get back to 1.50, but it doesn't look very probable any time soon.
  • #172,908
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:10pm Dec 16, 2009 5:10pm
[quote=Matt99;3311588]referring to ogunx post: I hasn't closed yet...at this moment it looks more like a doji. Upward movement after close?[/QUO

yess matt I think u are right hanging man is different then what we had yesterdays candle it is exactly doji !
Nothing is True Everything is Permitted
  • #172,909
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:17pm Dec 16, 2009 5:17pm
I see this thing hanging around here for awhile (next 6 hours) possibly get a retracement to 4560, but then getting down to 4460 within the next 24 hours.
  • #172,910
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:17pm Dec 16, 2009 5:17pm
Quoting X.Oden
If you guys go back to the weekly charts to 2008 of April and July, you'll see a double top, this may occur again this time as one of the outcomes if it pulls back....

I'm just sayin...I don't foresee a straight drop down, that would be too drastic....
Oden, I very much agree. In fact I talked about it in my blog post the other day.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #172,911
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:19pm Dec 16, 2009 5:19pm
Well one of my mentors in Asia (net worth 1.2B now) says it would climb. he told me this a month ago and then again a week ago...he said he was positive...(he's been trading the hedges since 9 years ago...started out with 600K) and he's always off on his predictions, so I decided to go long on EUR...as soon as I did at the top...lol it dips!! So I had to hedge and am accumulating...

I had to switch to my swing to see the bigger picture, but the move looks extended, but then again, what is extended? its still dropping....all I can tell you is that the momentum is weakening and the probability over time based on the indicators I use usually are correct...so we'll see....if not, I have to keep hedging again......

My swing trades are doing better....but its like night and day...

Everytime I say EUR is going up, I've accumulated some shares using scale in buying....

To save my errors, I swing or hedge to buy "time" until the big turn....so all I can do is wait....but I posted a chart showing what I saw on the Daily.....its common to see a long bar on the daily followed by another long bar that closed into a spinning top or doji before the trend resumes, so that's what I'm expecting to see...if not, crappers.....I have to close some positions and take a loss and reverse the hedge bias...


Quoting 2+2=4ex
Hehe. It's a term used to describe a UBS Warburg trader. Some of whom have been known to intentionally deceit the public to their advantage. I use it in a jokingly manner, a quip.

Seriously, I'm not going to say it can't get back to 1.50, but it doesn't look very probable any time soon.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #172,912
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:23pm Dec 16, 2009 5:23pm
What's your blog?

I've accumulated over 7 positions (1 too many) over a 600 pip drop in EURO recently, closed my hedges for a profit to buy additional dips, so I have to be careful in a further drop to re-hedge again or swing....either way to build up the profit cushion to buy into more of what I call "discount" investments....

if price retraces even half way, I make a good earnings, if it goes all the way and breaks to new highs, I build my collection on the hedges waiting for another reversal....

just a balancing act.......

Quoting Geppy
Oden, I very much agree. In fact I talked about it

in my blog post the other day.
In Charts We Trust!
  • #172,913
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:26pm Dec 16, 2009 5:26pm
Quoting X.Oden
...<snip>...So just use small position sizes....you can make a hundred mistakes and still come out ahead and over time, the risk really stays the same but the lot sizes grow if the account grows....
Excellent advice, and I'm so happy to see it said. That's the exact way I trade, small lots sizes mean I can have a larger margin of error without the fear of a margin call. As my account slowly grows, so lot sizes can grow and the risk to the account remains the same. This method will eventually exponentially grow my account very well, with a good safety net because the overall risk hasn't changed.

I liken it to the story of the tortoise and the hare.....and we all know that it wasn't the hare that that won that race!!
Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #172,914
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:29pm Dec 16, 2009 5:29pm
Guys here is my "Picasso drawing" for 15M TF

EURUSD

Trade between RED and GOLD (SL just above or below) or short below / buy above.

Check it out, clean chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cur_eur_15m.jpg Size: 99 KB
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #172,915
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:31pm Dec 16, 2009 5:31pm
Quoting X.Oden
What's your blog?
Link is in my signature
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #172,916
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:31pm Dec 16, 2009 5:31pm
Now I can post a chart.

If this moving average is breached by 2 consecutive bars, I am looking at long for the Asian session. If it bounces, i am applying a short hedge till the 4505 area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Capture.JPG Size: 185 KB
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #172,917
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:33pm Dec 16, 2009 5:33pm
Oh hey, yeah I actually visited your site a few days ago to see your daily progression to your ultimate goals.....man just hang in there....maybe when you hit your target, Kathy Lien will look you up and put you in the next Millionaire Traders book...plus you could sell your own!! Wouldn't that be nice?



Quoting Geppy
Link is in my signature
In Charts We Trust!
  • #172,918
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:33pm Dec 16, 2009 5:33pm
Read an article from an fx website stating that EUR/USD will have upside trend in future as GoldmanSach and Citi both ve close their short position and started buying. Then, in near future China govt. who has large number of reserve USD (more than 2.3 trillion) willing to diversify it's portfolio buy buying Gold and EUR.

I bought 2 contracts at 1.4521 with stoploss 1.4445. And, will see the next range of resistance is 1.4627,1.4663, and support level is 1.4493, 1.4457, 1.4408.
  • #172,919
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:34pm Dec 16, 2009 5:34pm
I was reading this thread...I like the way this guy trades, I used to trade this way in the equities market years ago...its a good clean way to progress...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=80290
In Charts We Trust!
  • #172,920
  • Dec 16, 2009 5:36pm Dec 16, 2009 5:36pm
Quoting X.Oden
Well one of my mentors in Asia (net worth 1.2B now) says it would climb. he told me this a month ago and then again a week ago...he said he was positive...(he's been trading the hedges since 9 years ago...started out with 600K) and he's always off on his predictions, so I decided to go long on EUR...as soon as I did at the top...lol it dips!! So I had to hedge and am accumulating...

I had to switch to my swing to see the bigger picture, but the move looks extended, but then again, what is extended? its still dropping....all I can tell you is that...
Do you have hedged positions open within the same currency and same broker? I know for some people it helps them deal with their losing positions better by doing this, but you aren't doing yourself any favors, especially if you are incurring swap charges. If you took each open buy order and canceled it out with an open sell order (paired), your equity balance (unrealized) would be the same. So ask yourself, what advantage do you have in having so many simultaneous open hedged positions? Answer: None.

I have found that success in this comes from constantly drawing your lines on the chart and setting up your tp's & sl's accordingly. I presume you are trading on a microlot account. If you trade the trend, lines, channels, supports, resistances and stay away from news, you should be able to double the $42 in very little time. Then so on and so on.

One thing I would like to add: December is the least predictable month, so be careful.
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