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0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

  • #1,981
  • Dec 16, 2009 8:57am Dec 16, 2009 8:57am
Quoting amido
Hello everybody i have a problem with this is strategy i am working with 4 pairs (ُEUR.USD/USD.CHF/GBP.USD/USD.JPY) and put my orders in the high and low and target is 30 pips only and the stop in buy one is the low and in the sell one is high and it is stall hit stop loss in some Lucky's weeks i earn 120 pips daily but now i can not get 60 pips what am i doing guys ?

I would say there are at least two different issues here. FIrstly, we are currently in a more ranging market and lesser liquidity due to the time of year. Secondly, I do not understand why you would trade both EU and UC in this manner. As they are almost perfectly negatively correlated if you go Long one then chances are you will go Short the other. At the same time if you lose on one then you will lose on the other as well. You may have been winning on both of them before but either way you are both doubling your wins and doubling your losses by trading EU and UC. So if you won 30 on both EU and UC before when you should have only won 30 on one of them you may be losing 30 on each of them now. It is raising your winners by an extra 30 but also deepening your losses by an additional 30. So perhaps you should have been getting about 90 before instead of 120 and you should be getting 90 now instead of 60. In that case, nothing has changed just that the correlation is now harming you.
  • #1,982
  • Dec 16, 2009 9:01am Dec 16, 2009 9:01am
Hi Grant,

What is the Name of your Breakout Indicator ?

Thank

Cheer



Quoting grant18265
Morning W,

no trade for me today.

85 ema is in the box, see attached pic....

cheers

Grant
  • #1,983
  • Dec 16, 2009 9:08am Dec 16, 2009 9:08am
Quoting ad2008
Hi Grant,

What is the Name of your Breakout Indicator ?

Thank

Cheer
Grant posted his indicator here...

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1955
  • #1,984
  • Dec 16, 2009 9:12am Dec 16, 2009 9:12am
Quoting flyer415
I would say there are at least two different issues here....
yes i know that about th EU and CU i am just try to make it Substance and it was good in last mounth but now it is crazy it love hit stop loss and you know i was very stupid and but the stop losee more than the target 2 times and some times 3 so it is not good tell me what to do
  • #1,985
  • Dec 16, 2009 9:22am Dec 16, 2009 9:22am
Quoting amido
yes i know that about th EU and CU i am just try to make it Substance and it was good in last mounth but now it is crazy it love hit stop loss and you know i was very stupid and but the stop losee more than the target 2 times and some times 3 so it is not good tell me what to do

If you are trading this live then I would STOP. It is Christmas season..so take the time to regroup. Go back over this thread and start with Grant's technique on GU only. Get consistent and remain consistent. Then add in EU (assuming that there is an appropriate strategy for it).

Also, have a look at IndyFx post where he gives optimized parameters for the setup. Your SL should not be 2 or 3 times the TP (if I understood you correctly).

Oh yeah...STOP.
  • #1,986
  • Edited 9:41am Dec 16, 2009 9:32am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting grant18265
hi fasi,

the indicator is one i found on the Big Dog thread and i have just changed the inputs to my broker time in order to get the 4-6 am box and the colours to something that i like.

so the inputs i have for ODL (+0 Uk time and 5 digits) are from the top:

6
0
8
0
250
750
90
150
true
false
70
50
false
false
then change the colours to suit your own charts


the expire part i dont use as its not needed so i have a 0 as the input..

hope that helps

cheers

Grant
Hey Grant,

can you please tell us your breakout time according to session time.

how much hours before london opening??

Is there any pips limit inside the box for entry?
  • #1,987
  • Dec 16, 2009 9:33am Dec 16, 2009 9:33am
Quoting flyer415
If you are trading this live then I would STOP. It is Christmas season..so take the time to regroup. Go back over this thread and start with Grant's technique on GU only. Get consistent and remain consistent. Then add in EU (assuming that there is an appropriate strategy for it).

Also, have a look at IndyFx post where he gives optimized parameters for the setup. Your SL should not be 2 or 3 times the TP (if I understood you correctly).

Oh yeah...STOP.
lol ok you are right man
  • #1,988
  • Dec 16, 2009 12:44pm Dec 16, 2009 12:44pm
Quoting sp33dr4ge
Grant,

I've been trading off and on for 3 years with little success. I want to thank you for your contribution and what you have given us with the break out method.

I had a quick question. I started trading live on Dec. 10th with this method and go figure, the markets ranging and I started at a bad time.

I did a quick back test from Dec 1st to now and using your method 4-6, and the 85 EMA with no trade if EMA is in box, I can only see one time where +75 is hit, 1 BE and 1 Loss. Yet this conflicts with what you posted earlier this month. Can...

Hi there,

my results on my live account are:

1 NO trade- ema in box
2 No trade - ema in box
3 BE
4 NO trade - never triggered short
7 +75
8 No trade - ema in box
9 BE ( TP missed by 2 pips, very very annoying)
10 No trade - ema in box
11 -15 (triggered long by 1 pip to see it reverse immediately)
14 No trade - ema in box
15 No trade - ema in box
16 No trade - ema in box

so 1 win, 1 loss, 1 BE for +60 pips which if you risk 1% per trade is +4%

hope that helps

Grant
  • #1,989
  • Dec 16, 2009 12:52pm Dec 16, 2009 12:52pm
Quoting Gt3rs
Just subscribing guys.

I have read much of this thread, but there's too much to simply sit back and read it ALL!!

Could anyone be so kind as to summarise which strategy is favoured now and give details on rules for said strategy?

Many thanks!
I appreciate that the methods used here now are a long way from the original posted on the 1st page. To read the whole thread will help you learn the reasons why certain tweaks and mods were made. if i were to put my cash on the say so of someone else i'd want to know the reasons behind the method wouldnt you?

Even then if you had read any of the last 10 pages or so of the thread then you would have seen who most posters are asking questions of...

read that persons posts and you will find what you look for...

cheers

Grant
  • #1,990
  • Dec 16, 2009 12:58pm Dec 16, 2009 12:58pm
Quoting Pip26
Hey Grant,

can you please tell us your breakout time according to session time.

how much hours before london opening??

Is there any pips limit inside the box for entry?
i trade the 4-6 am UK time box.

if the box is over 120 pips i make a judgement call as to whether to trade or not... Usually with that size of box the ema is in the box anyway so no trade...

cheers

Grant
  • #1,991
  • Dec 16, 2009 1:47pm Dec 16, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting grant18265
I appreciate that the methods used here now are a long way from the original posted on the 1st page. To read the whole thread will help you learn the reasons why certain tweaks and mods were made. if i were to put my cash on the say so of someone else i'd want to know the reasons behind the method wouldnt you?

Even then if you had read any of the last 10 pages or so of the thread then you would have seen who most posters are asking questions of...

read that persons posts and you will find what you look for...

cheers

Grant
To help some of you with what Grant is suggesting here are the posts of Grant, IndyFx, fed and DubaiTrader.
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip 4to7breakout Thread FF.zip   162 KB | 729 downloads
  • #1,992
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:08pm Dec 16, 2009 2:08pm
Quoting Indyfx
I thought that I would add my two pennies worth. I must admit that whilst I do not condone what DT did I do have to express my thanks to him, Grant, Scull and the others (you know who you are) who are continuously sharing their thinking and spending their time working hard to help others

I have a real problem with the people that visit this thread (often for only a few posts) and they do not want to devote any of their time to research their ideas or share what they are doing all they want to do is take people ideas and go off...
Hi Indy - Thanks for your post. When you say you don't condone what DT did, what was that? Sorry if i have missed something.

Thanks for your input - good work.
Trade the price action, not the cash!!!
  • #1,993
  • Dec 16, 2009 4:30pm Dec 16, 2009 4:30pm
Quoting grant18265
attached is indy i use for breakout box

cheers

Grant
------------------
Thank you

Cheers
  • #1,994
  • Edited Dec 17, 2009 1:45am Dec 16, 2009 4:41pm | Edited Dec 17, 2009 1:45am
Dear All,

Please note that I have made a couple of minor changes to my post # 1970 having gone through the figures again. The move to breakeven changes to 19 pips from 14 and there were 4 losers and not the 3 mentioned before. Still a respectable + 33.5 R over 2 months. I have also changed the cut off time for trade entry to match Grant's at 08.30am GMT
  • #1,995
  • Dec 16, 2009 7:06pm Dec 16, 2009 7:06pm
Quoting nevic
Hi,
Can you please clarify which strategy you are using?

thanks
Nevic,

Pls refer to post #1881 for my variation. Another rule I missed out is that I'll normally avoid the trade if the box is unusually large.


Hope it helps.

Soul
  • #1,996
  • Dec 16, 2009 7:17pm Dec 16, 2009 7:17pm
Quoting Indyfx
I thought that I would add my two pennies worth. I must admit that whilst I do not condone what DT did I do have to express my thanks to him, Grant, Scull and the others (you know who you are) who are continuously sharing their thinking and spending their time working hard to help others
Wow Indy there's a lot of information to be digested there. Thank you for your excellent work here.

Soul
  • #1,997
  • Dec 16, 2009 7:49pm Dec 16, 2009 7:49pm
grant

how long have you been trading this way?

Quoting grant18265
Hi there,

my results on my live account are:

1 NO trade- ema in box
2 No trade - ema in box
3 BE
4 NO trade - never triggered short
7 +75
8 No trade - ema in box
9 BE ( TP missed by 2 pips, very very annoying)
10 No trade - ema in box
11 -15 (triggered long by 1 pip to see it reverse immediately)
14 No trade - ema in box
15 No trade - ema in box
16 No trade - ema in box

so 1 win, 1 loss, 1 BE for +60 pips which if you risk 1% per trade is +4%

hope that helps

Grant
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #1,998
  • Dec 16, 2009 9:56pm Dec 16, 2009 9:56pm
flyer can you explain dt's can version fully in one post along with a chart please

thanks

Quoting flyer415
Not sure if anybody is still looking at DubaiTrader's method or not.

I went back over his November trades with the spreadsheet he supplied and with minor tweaks the pip count went from 270 to 581. I also ended up with only 1 loser versus his 3; however, i did have 3 BE trades. I went to BE at +25 pips.

The losers are filtered out by not just the colour of the Slope direction lines but by the alignment of the lines..i.e. is the 50 on top of the 25 for a Short trade and vice versa for a Long trade. On the 16,17 and 30 Nov they were either not...
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #1,999
  • Dec 16, 2009 11:26pm Dec 16, 2009 11:26pm
grant

i may be missing something as sep was a bad month for fed's breakout same time as your i backtested sep

i got 3* wins 4* lose 3*be

am using 85 ema although it shows as 85ma i have put in exponential in the box
here are my findings
1/9 n t
2 n t
3 75
4 -15
5 nt
7 nt
8 nt
9 -15
10 nt
11 nt
14 -15
15 -15
16 nt
17 be
18 be hit 60
21 be
22 75 ema skimmed box
23 24 25 28 29 nt
30 75

Quoting grant18265
Hi Jarrod,

my version of this method has a risk/reward of 1:5, ie risk 1, win 5

Sept, 12 trades, 6 wins, 5 losses, 1 BE, +25%
Oct, 12 trades, 3 wins, 8 losses, 1 BE, +7%
Nov, 9 trades, 5 wins, 3 losses, 1 BE, +22%
Dec (to date), 3 trades, 1 win, 1 loss, 1 BE, +4%.

All the above are my actual live account results...

hope that helps..

Grant
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #2,000
  • Dec 17, 2009 2:05am Dec 17, 2009 2:05am
Quoting maq
grant

i may be missing something as sep was a bad month for fed's breakout same time as your i backtested sep

i got 3* wins 4* lose 3*be

am using 85 ema although it shows as 85ma i have put in exponential in the box
here are my findings
1/9 n t
2 n t
3 75
4 -15
5 nt
7 nt
8 nt
9 -15
10 nt
11 nt
14 -15
15 -15
16 nt
17 be
18 be hit 60
21 be
22 75 ema skimmed box
23 24 25 28 29 nt
30 75
HI Maq,

have had a look back at myt results from my live account and apologies i got the figures wrong, i have no idea how i have got it wrong considering i only had to count and type the answer but i did, again apologies,

so Sept now reads...

10 trades, 4 wins, 3 losses, 3 BE, +17%...

i checked the Oct, Nov and Dec figures and i have at least got those correct...

again apologies for misleading people on here..

cheers

Grant
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