Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1391 | Forex Factory

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #27,801
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:10pm Dec 15, 2009 3:10pm
Quoting KENNETH lEE
Another view

Thanks Ken. The reason I hadn't taken that trade is that the PA seemed to have been ignoring the 1hr 62 as it had been stomping all over it the last few days? Also I was nervous to take the inverted hammer as the 1hr and 4hr looked so bullish. Easy to see now after the fact I guess. Just finished reading your pdf as well. Great work. I guess I better read it a second time haha.

Cheers
Cap
  • #27,802
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:24pm Dec 15, 2009 3:24pm
Quoting The Captain
Thanks Ken. The reason I hadn't taken that trade is that the PA seemed to have been ignoring the 1hr 62 as it had been stomping all over it the last few days? Also I was nervous to take the inverted hammer as the 1hr and 4hr looked so bullish. Easy to see now after the fact I guess. Just finished reading your pdf as well. Great work. I guess I better read it a second time haha.

Cheers

We don't you use fibs here but the 35/50 and the 62 ema 1 Hr trades are retracemnet trades the 62 was between the 50 and 61 fib level. Just a quick glance to see if price has pulled back about half way is all we need to try a trade of it. same with the 35/50 but it was abit shallow. But a 50 ema retest is confirmation of a break of that line and your stop should be tight or you should have closed the trade when price failed to cross back over the 50 ema. Not a falure just not time yet. You can see on the next leg when price closed on the 50 ema it bounced before crossing then retested on the break going north. The ability to notice this things and respond to them is what is neede to do well. No reason to just give away pips. Close and look for the right trades. I agree with you about the higher time frames . But some times they don't workout. And a 4 hr candle is just 16 15 min candles so any change in that 4 Hr bias has to start on the 15 min. Don't feel bad I got caught on that shooting star on the e/j earlier Didn't notice the hammer on the 4hr. Conflicting but the 4 Hr won LOL..
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #27,803
  • Dec 15, 2009 3:49pm Dec 15, 2009 3:49pm
Quoting KENNETH lEE
We don't you use fibs here but the 35/50 and the 62 ema 1 Hr trades are retracemnet trades the 62 was between the 50 and 61 fib level. Just a quick glance to see if price has pulled back about half way is all we need to try a trade of it. same with the 35/50 but it was abit shallow. But a 50 ema retest is confirmation of a break of that line and your stop should be tight or you should have closed the trade when price failed to cross back over the 50 ema. Not a falure just not time yet. You can see on the next leg when price closed on the 50 ema...
Thanks again! Wasn't even looking at the mistress today as I was ready to backhand the Mrs. and leave her forever! I think I need to start using a more strategic stop loss, based off MA's. Hopefully I can catch her when she breaks out of this range. Peace to all.
Cap
  • #27,804
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:01pm Dec 15, 2009 4:01pm
Have been trading the Asian close London open now that I'm down in NZ
Last year was in Europe so concentrated on the US time frames

What I have noticed is the moves are a lot more dynamic through the London time It shows up on the wicks of the candles
US seems to be a lot more directional and slightly slower moving

To get in and out of trades during the London session you have to have a pretty quick trigger finger as the moves seem to jump in 10 twenty pip blocks especially around news time

If you are away from your screen for a few minutes you can easily miss the bounces off the MAs hence you have to be quick at planning those trades

As a rule I would prefer to trade the US time but its hard to stay alert at 4am
Another thing that seems very constant is there is generally a change of direction or a big move close to the London close
I would assume that the UK traders shutting down for the day
  • #27,805
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:07pm Dec 15, 2009 4:07pm
Quoting The Captain
Thanks again! Wasn't even looking at the mistress today as I was ready to backhand the Mrs. and leave her forever! I think I need to start using a more strategic stop loss, based off MA's. Hopefully I can catch her when she breaks out of this range. Peace to all.

Not to beat a dead Horse, But the 5:00 trade is a short only a 1:00 is the same for a long but only in a uptrend. Unless I have taken a long from a s/r area I tend to wait to change my bias only when the price changes to the otherside of the major ma's. So I look for shorts below and longs above except for our signals and 35/50 and 62 ema trades.
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #27,806
  • Dec 15, 2009 4:15pm Dec 15, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting frenz
Have been trading the Asian close London open now that I'm down in NZ
Last year was in Europe so concentrated on the US time frames

What I have noticed is the moves are a lot more dynamic through the London time...

if you're looking for 10+ pips then yes, don't leave your screen. I too look for 10-20 at a time. I get my trade then don't even look a the screen for a while. I let the market figure itself out again and look for another entry.

and yes, typically the PA while change a bit due to markets closing. If you're diligent it's often a great way to grab 20-30 pips but you had better have your SL planned out cuz it occasionally bites hard the other direction.
  • #27,807
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:46pm Dec 15, 2009 6:46pm
Would I be right in assuming a lot of the PA takes place around the following numbers i.e 16218- 36 62 84 It seems to blow past the round numbers and regularly stops and consolidates in these places
  • #27,808
  • Dec 15, 2009 6:58pm Dec 15, 2009 6:58pm
If you are trading in the extreme zones is it a good idea to place limit orders
with a set and forget option or are you watching the screen for the perfect entry

I find some times if the market is moving fast the order doesn't get filled at the price you hit the button on

Maybe there is a time lag or something
  • #27,809
  • Dec 15, 2009 10:15pm Dec 15, 2009 10:15pm
Quoting frenz
Would I be right in assuming a lot of the PA takes place around the following numbers i.e 16218- 36 62 84 It seems to blow past the round numbers and regularly stops and consolidates in these places

actually it's funny you bring that because those are some of my favorite trades. as we approach a "00" (1.6300) from below I look for an entry around the 80's and exits close to the 20's and then short again back to the 90's.

this is outside of news of course. When this happens during a major news event, don't count on it.
  • #27,810
  • Dec 16, 2009 1:34am Dec 16, 2009 1:34am
Yes A good rate of success on the eu with that strategy

Tonight guilty of moving stop loss to quickly but in the money at the moment

seems to be a bit of a hurdle at 16240

Ken somewhere you mentioned you didn't like trading to close to the mas when they are bunched together
Is it because if you get it wrong the bounce takes out your stop too quickly
  • #27,811
  • Dec 16, 2009 1:45am Dec 16, 2009 1:45am
So much for the 62 ma bounce more like a 62 see saw

Has to pick a direction sooner or later heads it goes up tails down
  • #27,812
  • Dec 16, 2009 1:50am Dec 16, 2009 1:50am
a lot of news due soon
" When the ship starts to sink, don't just pray. JUMP "
  • #27,813
  • Dec 16, 2009 1:56am Dec 16, 2009 1:56am
Quoting frenz
So much for the 62 ma bounce more like a 62 see saw

Has to pick a direction sooner or later heads it goes up tails down
Riding the see saw isn't all bad!
  • #27,814
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:16am Dec 16, 2009 2:16am
Its a bit like a race horse in the gate waiting for the starting gun

a few false starts but maybe shes away
  • #27,815
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:25am Dec 16, 2009 2:25am
That was a nice 145 pip see saw ride.
  • #27,816
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:33am Dec 16, 2009 2:33am
Add another 20 pips. My legs are getting tired on this see saw.
  • #27,817
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:39am Dec 16, 2009 2:39am
Interesting chart patterns

sat through the asian session in eager anticipation of something good
missed the first big move with a nice signal had to pick up daughter

then bagged some and lost some

when was the last time you saw chart patterns like this at the open no news to move it i suppose a breakout has to be on the horizon
ca la vie
  • #27,818
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:42am Dec 16, 2009 2:42am
Quoting PippiNole
Riding the see saw isn't all bad!
I make a majority of my trades on that see saw. 10-20 at a time.
I've cleared 120 pips tonight alone.. WOOT WOOT!
  • #27,819
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:46am Dec 16, 2009 2:46am
Quoting dakrusha
I make a majority of my trades on that see saw. 10-20 at a time.
I've cleared 120 pips tonight alone.. WOOT WOOT!
So that was you on the other end of the see saw!

Nice trading!
  • #27,820
  • Dec 16, 2009 2:47am Dec 16, 2009 2:47am
145 pips must have a saw trigger finger
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