0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

i was going to ask grant scull and dt to update the methods in one post so all can see exactly

grant and scull beat me to it well done lads

sull whats your results like lately if you don't mind?

anybody know dt's method?

thanks again lads

Thanks Kiwi,

have added the details..

Grant

Hi Nick,

i actually just have amount above high as 7 (70 as i'm on 5 digits) and add spread as false.

cheers

Grant

I have +120 with an SL of 40 for Dec, so not bad considering it's generally not a great time to trade.

grant,

So today was correct for your entry, do we just wait till 8.30 and if it has not entered we close? even though of the recent up movement?

Morning W,

no trade for me today.

85 ema is in the box, see attached pic....

cheers

Grant

Thanks

I forgot about the box including spread

Ok cool well even though its not your method I might keep it open and see what happens.


Cheers

No trade for me today, as my order is not trigger until 7:45 GMT. Just wanna share my results since mid Sep until 4 Dec (has not been able to trade lately):

Total Trades: 30
TP1 Win: 27
TP2 Win: 16
TP3 Win: 1
Loss: 3


Anyone trade this strategy with other pairs? My back test with other pairs has not been satisfactory though.

Cheers

Soul

Hi,
Can you please clarify which strategy you are using?

thanks

I thought that I would add my two pennies worth. I must admit that whilst I do not condone what DT did I do have to express my thanks to him, Grant, Scull and the others (you know who you are) who are continuously sharing their thinking and spending their time working hard to help others

I have a real problem with the people that visit this thread (often for only a few posts) and they do not want to devote any of their time to research their ideas or share what they are doing all they want to do is take people ideas and go off and use it. I don't think that they realise the amount of time and effort that is expended by some to help others on this thread. I do appreciate that there are some like me that are very grateful of the work done by others. I will share the analysis that took me 6 hours of Saturday to complete.

OK rant over here we go:


I looked at the period from 2nd October to 4th December for GBP USD so in that respect my findings are for a relatively short period. I was comparing

a) Grant's method using the 4.00am - 6.00am GMT box with the 85 EMA and his buffers

b) to the use of the slope indicators using a 4.00am - 6.00am GMT box (as introduced to me by DT but using my settings) 200, 3, 0 and 100, 3, 0 where both have to be pointing in the same direction at the end of the box and you would trade in that direction

both applied to a 15 min chart


I was looking for some correlation between the 2 but the results were quite interesting. Over this period:

Trading days-----------------------------------------------46

Days both methods indicating same direction-----------------20

Days valid direction only on Grant's (slopes conflicting)--------9

Days valid direction only on slopes (MA in box)---------------10

Days no valid direction on either-----------------------------7


I then went about looking for the optimum parameters which would produce the best return whilst not making that return too dependant upon a small number of winners. The result was very close to Grant's setting and are as follows:

Buffer 4 pips excluding spread

Stop 20 pips excluding spread

Move to breakeven after 19 pips excluding spread

Target 77 pips excluding spread

No trade after 08.30am GMT


The results were as follows:

Winners--------------11

(of which 6 came from a valid set up on both systems, 2 came just from Grant's, 3 came just from the slopes)

Breakeven------------11

Losers-----------------4

(of which 2 came from a valid set up on both systems, 2 came just from Grant's, 0 came just from the slopes)


ROI (including my spread which is 2 pips):

37.5 - 4 = RO1 of 33.5

So if for example you are risking 2% of your trading account which would represent $200 of risk for each new position you would have made $6,700 over this 2 month period (after allowing for spread)


Conclusion: If you applied the slopes as well as Grant's and take trades on either or both you end up with more winning trades. I found that during this period a quicker move of your stop to breakeven worked best in converting trades to breakeven which would have been losers otherwise.

EDITED: please note that there have been some minor changes completed at 07.43am GMT after double checking my figures on 17th December

Indy

Good research ,

definately food for thought in the new year

many thanks

Grant

Hi all

having watched price action since Monday i have come to the decision that the markets are just too choppy so i have stopped trading live.

so i wish you all a very happy xmas and a pip filled new year

cheers

Grant

Hello Grant,

The indicator you have given in your post looks different from you present chart.

can you please explain with some chart of indicator visual?
how to determine the aqua box (expire box) what is all about?

thanx
fasi

Hello Grant,

This is my chart with your indicator.

Not sure if anybody is still looking at DubaiTrader's method or not.

I went back over his November trades with the spreadsheet he supplied and with minor tweaks the pip count went from 270 to 581. I also ended up with only 1 loser versus his 3; however, i did have 3 BE trades. I went to BE at +25 pips.

The losers are filtered out by not just the colour of the Slope direction lines but by the alignment of the lines..i.e. is the 50 on top of the 25 for a Short trade and vice versa for a Long trade. On the 16,17 and 30 Nov they were either not aligned or just trying to align. My BE trades were not aligned either and therefore were poor trades that should have not been entered or a quick 25 pip TP should have been employed.

I realize that this is a terribly short sample size but it was the only data that i had at the time. For those of you who have done some backtesting here, if you have a spreadsheet populated with the trades then a copy would be appreciated as then I could just add on the Slope direction alignment portion.

The final portion of getting additional pips is the obvious result of actually using PA to determine when to get out. Again, the Slope direction lines also tells you the strength of the breakout based on their alignment and direction.

I assume that DT used a 30 pip TP for backtesting purposes and not necessarily in real life but I do not know that for sure.

I realize that a lot of you are using an EA or attempting to use an EA for this strategy and that would not work here. I am a pure manual trader and I am fine with babysitting a trade once it is open.


EDIT: I just saw IndyFx's post 1970 above. In the spreadsheet from DT he was using a 5:00 to 7:00 GMT box whereas IndyFX used the 4:00 to 6:00 box in his post above. Just so there is no confusion on my numbers here I used the trades from DT's spreadsheet which he attached in an earlier post.

hi fasi,

the indicator is one i found on the Big Dog thread and i have just changed the inputs to my broker time in order to get the 4-6 am box and the colours to something that i like.

so the inputs i have for ODL (+0 Uk time and 5 digits) are from the top:

6
0
8
0
250
750
90
150
true
false
70
50
false
false
then change the colours to suit your own charts


the expire part i dont use as its not needed so i have a 0 as the input..

hope that helps

cheers

Grant

So I just re-did the different analysis on DubaiTraders trades for November using the 4-6 box as IndyFx did in his earlier post.

This turned out even better then DT's 5-7 box with my minor mods.

In the 4-6 box taking only DT's November trades with proper slope colour and slope alignment we now have only 14 trades instead of 15 trades. The trade on 30 Nov was nullified. We have 2 BE trades (move to BE after 25) and 0 losing trades.

We also have a total pip count of 957 vs DT's 270 and vs my 5-7 box 581.

I used the same exits and the same exit concepts for both the 4-6 and the 5-7 box. The primary difference is the fact that using grant's box timeline of 4-6 gets us in earlier for the big runs when they occur.

Again, i am using PA fo my exits so your results will differ and I have no doubt they would differ live vs a backtest. However, a significant lift in the results between the two box times should be true in live mode as well; just maybe not to this extent.

Hello everybody i have a problem with this is strategy i am working with 4 pairs (ُEUR.USD/USD.CHF/GBP.USD/USD.JPY) and put my orders in the high and low and target is 30 pips only and the stop in buy one is the low and in the sell one is high and it is stall hit stop loss in some Lucky's weeks i earn 120 pips daily but now i can not get 60 pips what am i doing guys ?

Grant,

I've been trading off and on for 3 years with little success. I want to thank you for your contribution and what you have given us with the break out method.

I had a quick question. I started trading live on Dec. 10th with this method and go figure, the markets ranging and I started at a bad time.

I did a quick back test from Dec 1st to now and using your method 4-6, and the 85 EMA with no trade if EMA is in box, I can only see one time where +75 is hit, 1 BE and 1 Loss. Yet this conflicts with what you posted earlier this month. Can you please confirm?

Is this right?

Dec. 1 -25
Dec. 2 Orders cancel past 8:30GMT (No Trade)
Dec. 3 No Trade
Dec. 4 No Trade
Dec. 7 +75
Dec. 8 No Trade
Dec. 9 BE
Dec. 10 No Trade
Dec. 11 Orders cancel past 8:30GMT
Dec. 14 Mark moves too much in the 4-6 box prior to executing a trade (No Trade)
Dec. 15 No Trade
Dec. 16 No Trade


Net Pips = 50

The only day I see where you would of traded and hit +75 is on Dec. 7th. Is this right?

Your help is appreciated.

Just subscribing guys.

I have read much of this thread, but there's too much to simply sit back and read it ALL!!

Could anyone be so kind as to summarise which strategy is favoured now and give details on rules for said strategy?

Many thanks!