EURUSD

Generally rule of thumb is the longer the market paces and the tighter the range, the more explosive the breakout. Add to that the thin volume due to December, and it's the Wild West.....

Wild wild west! Alright! Sign me up for this breakout thing, I'm ready to go!

LOL! Just remember there are no sure things, and to do your own analysis!

Hey guys, I've just been reading mostly today and sitting with my longs on in the low 1.4600 area.

On longer time-frames, I definitely see the potential for a short bias. But I have a hard time seeing it happen right away. Looking at the weekly, I feel like we're going to pop back up to at least 1.4950 area and maybe even put in a bull trap with a double top around 1.5100 area. That being said, I'm playing the trap with longs and ideally looking to get short up there.

We all know FOMC is Wednesday and we all know the Fed isn't going to hike rates. They've been very clear about it and it's pretty evident there are no plans to do it any time soon. Lots of people like to sound intelligent and say that news like that is priced in. Well, maybe it is and maybe it's not, but I'm experienced enough to know that there's always a reaction. With this severe range and the fact that the Fed won't raise rates... well it makes me wonder if this will be the fuel to the bull trap fire and our chance to ride it up and sell it right back down.

For reference, check out the weekly price action just before the massive drop in July. I'd love to see us hang around there near the most recent highs, do some awesome scalping while financing a large position and then just push her off the cliff. Big drops like this take a long time to form and we've been in an uptrend for quite awhile. Those generally don't just turn on a dime.

Is anyone else thinking the same thing? Would love to hear more thoughts on this or thoughts on why I'm wrong.

The scenario you describe is plausible, but I don't think its gonna happen, not near-term. I am expecting a continuing show of both risk and euro aversion thru the holidays. That said, I don't think there will be enough of either of those to facilitate much of a slide in E/U.

In short, more ranging PA, probably somewhere between .4500 & .4750, with a healthy dose of low-liquidity volatility, which I can eat all day with a spoon.

Hi folks!

Hi Jay

Merry Ho Ho, JW!

I agree, I see a major move (drop) playing out sometime mid to end of January. Perhaps later, but I would be extremely surprised to see it happen earlier.

Ahhh... I can feel the christmas spirit.

i'm also feel chrismast spirit........ pips pips pips.....

does anyone trade based on ma? if so the dailys and weeklys are quite interesting. using 8 21 34 55 89 ema...worth a peek..

I found that if you use bright colors they are more interesting!

yep when the 21 crosses the 34 and even better 55 ect.. on daily there is some nice runs...weeky shows sitting on the 34 although we have been 100 pips below it..and holding below atm... its around 460x

This is setting up for a major move... the likes of which the world has never seen before (cue suspenseful music).

dun, dun, duuuuuuun.

okay let's play a game to make this more fun... if this imminent breakout was to be named a movie, what should its title be?

Mine= "Terminator V: The Return of the US Dollar"

This is my theme song for the USD..its been through some tough times but it never gives up lol....appropriate

the ode to billyjoe and bobbysue.