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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #14,101
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:46am Dec 14, 2009 9:46am
Quoting Yngwie
Sold 88.50 SL 88.85 TP 87.81
Looks to me like movement is slowing on the h4 around 88.48 area...i would have to see a break of there with demand to take a short anywhere close to 88.50...i think we could see a pullback to 88.86 before moving down anymore...
  • #14,102
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:58am Dec 14, 2009 9:58am
Quoting Kas1
Looks to me like movement is slowing on the h4 around 88.48 area...i would have to see a break of there with demand to take a short anywhere close to 88.50...i think we could see a pullback to 88.86 before moving down anymore...
why do u think that it will move up to 88.86 before running down ..?

has it got anything to do with the MACD and the histogram ..?

  • #14,103
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:07am Dec 14, 2009 10:07am
Quoting TheArcher
why do u think that it will move up to 88.86 before running down ..?

has it got anything to do with the MACD and the histogram ..?


i am looking at 1hr chart
  • #14,104
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:10am Dec 14, 2009 10:10am
Quoting Yngwie
Sold 88.50 SL 88.85 TP 87.81
same
sell 88.48 SL 88.81
  • #14,105
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:29am Dec 14, 2009 10:29am
http://i48.tinypic.com/2e3oe8o.jpg
  • #14,106
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:30am Dec 14, 2009 11:30am
Quoting TheArcher
why do u think that it will move up to 88.86 before running down ..?

has it got anything to do with the MACD and the histogram ..?

I don't see any increase in volume and range for it to continue through 88.48 at the moment from the 4hr chart...it retraced a bit now...was able to pick up on the short i missed earlier...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #14,107
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:36am Dec 14, 2009 11:36am
I use macd in my system this way -
true signal is coming when the wave is more then 0.2 (can be very close to 0.2). In your picture you have the wave like this, wich shows to go down. another up (real up - more than 80-100) will be detectected by next wave. This how I use macd in usdjpy.

have a good pips!
  • #14,108
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:45am Dec 14, 2009 11:45am
Quoting garagman
I use macd in my system this way -
true signal is coming when the wave is more then 0.2 (can be very close to 0.2). In your picture you have the wave like this, wich shows to go down. another up (real up - more than 80-100) will be detectected by next wave. This how I use macd in usdjpy.

have a good pips!
not totally sure what you mean...but if it works for you then stick with it man...
  • #14,109
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:52am Dec 14, 2009 11:52am
Quoting Kas1
not totally sure what you mean...
what exactly?
  • #14,110
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:58am Dec 14, 2009 11:58am
Quoting garagman
what exactly?
true signal at .2? i don't understand, i dont think macd has a fixed scale...yeh well whatever
  • #14,111
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:46pm Dec 14, 2009 12:46pm
My hourly MACD says it wants to turn up a bit - could change in the next 15 minutes but it might give a good swing up before it heads back down again... not sure? I'll just watch and study how it shifts for the moment. Missed a damn good trade earlier this morning in the AUDUSD but ah well! Always another opportunity!
|/ Dream as if you'll live forever... Live as if you'll die today. \|
  • #14,112
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:07pm Dec 14, 2009 1:07pm
Quoting Katreya
My hourly MACD says it wants to turn up a bit - could change in the next 15 minutes but it might give a good swing up before it heads back down again... not sure? I'll just watch and study how it shifts for the moment. Missed a damn good trade earlier this morning in the AUDUSD but ah well! Always another opportunity!
looking like it is shifting to go up on the 4hr for me too...no volume to climb though, i think its just ppl dumping...hanging on to my short...i missed the long ride on au us...always another trade is just around the corner.
  • #14,113
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:35pm Dec 14, 2009 1:35pm
Of course! Every movement is another opportunity! =D
I'm eying up the UsdJpy at the moment a bit now. Could do a little fakey to the 88.81 level before it bounces back down for another bit of smooth sailing, at least for a good enough amount of pips for me. Time to analyze!
|/ Dream as if you'll live forever... Live as if you'll die today. \|
  • #14,114
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:38pm Dec 14, 2009 1:38pm
Strange thing about it though lately, it's not obeying fibs like it has been for the past many weeks. A bit odd - it's totally ignoring them, though it did obey a few LONG fibs I drew, it's still not quite sticking to them. Not even the generic percent levels whatsoever... I wonder if it might do a long turnaround before it heads down again? A lot of people are saying that it doesn't really have the economy to back its sudden (built up) strength. Hard to say, it is an expanding country even if it is in debt quite a bit. Nothing like ol' Dubai at the moment though!
|/ Dream as if you'll live forever... Live as if you'll die today. \|
  • #14,115
  • Dec 14, 2009 2:46pm Dec 14, 2009 2:46pm
Quoting Katreya
Strange thing about it though lately, it's not obeying fibs like it has been for the past many weeks. A bit odd - it's totally ignoring them, though it did obey a few LONG fibs I drew, it's still not quite sticking to them. Not even the generic percent levels whatsoever... I wonder if it might do a long turnaround before it heads down again? A lot of people are saying that it doesn't really have the economy to back its sudden (built up) strength. Hard to say, it is an expanding country even if it is in debt quite a bit. Nothing like ol' Dubai at...
i think the longer term you draw your pivots, the more the levels will be respected...I like to use equal weekly pivots...if time is divided equally then why not price as well? I do not focus on news or other calls...the charts will tell me overall what is going on if interpreted properly...right now uj is saying to me that it does not feel like moving up...it does look like some of the other jp pairs want to turn upwards though...who knows if we will see correlation...still making my way through the learning curve...
  • #14,116
  • Dec 14, 2009 5:32pm Dec 14, 2009 5:32pm
USD is on its last legs vs the JPY, Japanese exporters are about to get crushed.
  • #14,117
  • Dec 14, 2009 6:13pm Dec 14, 2009 6:13pm
Looks like USD/JPY is headed up right now.
  • #14,118
  • Dec 14, 2009 6:17pm Dec 14, 2009 6:17pm
Quoting Leche Mocha
Looks like USD/JPY is headed up right now.
...low volume and tight spread on 4hr still, i don't think this climb will last long...i see resistance around 88.86...
  • #14,119
  • Dec 14, 2009 6:47pm Dec 14, 2009 6:47pm
I'm still long UJ, been holding since last night. I personally see too many reasons not to be long...strong support, strong fundamentals, weak yen, etc. No one knows for sure, but I like the long side! Happy trading!
  • #14,120
  • Dec 14, 2009 7:40pm Dec 14, 2009 7:40pm
Quoting Kas1
true signal at .2? i don't understand, i dont think macd has a fixed scale...yeh well whatever
ofcourse it's not. It's my experience. Look at history 1h tf and lower and you will see. For confirmation of new movement it is not enoght, but this is one of the signal and it can be filter for other signals.
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