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  • #8,461
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:30am Dec 14, 2009 9:30am
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I have been watching this pair for a while but there is not much happening here, it has been going sideways for over a month between 1.0800 and 1.0400 and lately being stuck at 1.0600. Its testing waters to go upwards but so far the diving team is still in control.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
The longer (in time) an instrument goes sideways (consolidation/ranging), the bigger the resultant move - PATIENCE & DISCIPLINE
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,462
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:33am Dec 14, 2009 9:33am
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I read your post and thought I shall reply especially with regard to your comment [font=Arial]Many times I get fed up just seeing my posts and long for some interaction -[font=Verdana] I believe that your posts are self explanatory and that any comment after yours would have to be extra special....
OK and thank you. Don't forget that when I get bored or see inactivity, I might do "double talk" to see how many are understanding.................or not!

Always read what I don't write - (read between the lines)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,463
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:41am Dec 14, 2009 9:41am
Quoting pipfx
The candlestick maker would be wrong as a hanging man only comes after an advance (usually extended) near a peak or strong resistance.

The sewing girls may see Pin and needles, but I see an IB below a support level. As Dr. Joe said its going to keep going down until it stops....
The candlestick maker would be wrong as a hanging man only comes after an advance (usually extended) near a peak or strong resistance.

In my book, a 520 pip move from support to confluence of resistance and Boss 20 is an advance.

A hanging man CAN and DOES appear anywhere in PRICE. You must look at WHAT he is TELLING YOU relative to the other candles around him, the trend (if any), S&R etc.

Remember, a hanging man is a "red flag" warning candle - we need the following candle to confirm ANYTHING the hanging man tells us.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,464
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:47am Dec 14, 2009 9:47am
Quoting pipfx
Both the USD/CHF and the EUR/USD are respecting the worker 20. I don't see any PASR to show an entry, but it does show the power of 20.
Both the USD/CHF and the EUR/USD are respecting the worker 20. I don't see any PASR to show an entry, but it does show the power of 20.

USDCHF & EURUSD BOSS ARE respecting the 20 not the Worker.

Where is the "power" of the 20 relative to S&R, TLs, DSRIs etc?

Are these two respecting anything else?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,465
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:56am Dec 14, 2009 9:56am
Quoting Alexandra
For whatever reason, I have had success over many years "reading into" CHF as a leading technical indicator. Perhaps others have different insights, but to me, it is a bit of a crystal ball, lending perspective to my EURUSD trades. Perhaps it is because there is more movement overall in that market than in EURUSD. Historically, yes, there has been a commodity link, particulalry to the metals (and to oil at times).
For whatever reason, I have had success over many years "reading into" CHF as a leading technical indicator. Perhaps others have different insights, but to me, it is a bit of a crystal ball, lending perspective to my EURUSD trades. Perhaps it is because there is more movement overall in that market than in EURUSD. Historically, yes, there has been a commodity link, particulalry to the metals (and to oil at times).

Very interesting resident funny mentalist! You and Lou are in agreement.

I have always looked to EURUSD as the leader, I guess mainly due to it having the highest volume and liquidity in forex.

I always thought EURUSD moved more than USDCHF but when I tried to prove it to Lou, I couldn't. Beauty in the eye of the beholder and all that, eh what!

So, if we got together on a fundotechnical basis, we should be able to kill this market - right?

Blackeagle - you have another way at looking at currencies pairs - what say you and how can we forge a meaningful direction?

Nicola - what about you and your Hedge Fund Manager - can you provide inspiration?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,466
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:09am Dec 14, 2009 10:09am
I've been watching that pair for some weeks. I like the fact we have had a break of the down trend line on strong momentum and then a fade back into the trendline to test it. Like the others have mentioned I would like to see a close above the last low of the downtrend and the SR at a certain level nearby. I think we could have a trend reversal in the making. Corrective waves usually still have lower lows. We have also has a 20/50 x-over and the expected retrace after that into the smaller rising TL.

One thing I don't like on the monthly chart is the fact the rising TL from Apr 2007 and beyond has been broken and we have only had 1 'push down'; the market often has 2 or 3 main pushes down on a move. The action on the monthly chart looks like it could just be a retrace. I'd expect another push down THEN a LL or HL test of any TL break maybe?

We now need the big money orders to come in from the hedge funds and propel it away from the rising TL. Bullish PA would be needed and one could expect a BUOB or BUEB off that TL. Patience is again, key!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,467
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:28am Dec 14, 2009 10:28am
Quoting mstandifer
Now I'm confused....
Now I'm confused. For the most part I'm a very literal person and tend to take things at face value. That certainly doesn't mean I can't reason things out, it just means I don't do so well with vagaries.

Strat, I know better than to say you've made a call here in either direction but it seems the implication is short.

However, I'm going to stick it out here because I'm honestly confused. Everyone is screaming short on the euro and long the dollar and so far those charts agree like you are saying. Here's where I'm just not able to see it...

Marcus, it IS confusing if you take it at face value so good for you for putting your hand up and saying “I’m confused”.

First EURUSD Monthly is UP not down. Sure, this month shows a massive BEEB but the month isn't over so it doesn't count for squat. Also it's sitting smack dab on the 61.8 fib with the 20 above the 50 and showing strong upward momentum.

Right.

Second, the weekly shows almost the same thing. Even though it closed below resistance it stopped cold on the 20 (which is still above the 50 even though it shows slowing momentum) and the 61.8. I see that it also broke DSRI but this just looks wrong to me.

Right BUT is the 20 strong enough to hold it up? Might PRICE not want to re-test 1.4150 again?

but this just looks wrong to me.

Good – this is your intuition developing – your “gut” instinct – keep developing this and LEARN to trust it. IF IN DOUBT, STAY OUT!

Last, on the daily, today's bar closed below the most recent swing low but at minor resistance on my daily. Also the 20 and 50 have just touched which does indicate lower prices are most likely to come. However, Dr. Joe says it isn't going down...yet.

Right – except its resting on minor Worker support NOT resistance. Will the Worker support be strong enough to hold PRICE up or will the BOSS win out?

In all honesty I feel like I'm taking several steps back just by saying all of this but I've gotta know where I'm seeing this wrong. Because according to the rules I've learned thus far (I'm not supposed to be paying attention do DSRI) I don't yet have a valid signal to short. There' no confirming price action at retested resistance and it's against the trend.

Marcus, its normal to feel like this when the technicals CONFUSE us – do not lose confidence in your self. You are definitely NOT going backwards and you are NOT seeing this wrong! Correct, there is NO PASR either way.

I'm saying all of this out in public view rather than in a PM because at the very least the general populous should benefit from the response and I believe in transparency. I'm not a skilled trader but I'm trying hard and I'm just damn confused right now and more than a little irritated that if this is supposed to be a short why I don't see it.

This is the ONLY way to learn and what we need more of – good job, Marcus.

Might it be that I posted that chart and comment to provoke comments?

One thing you didn’t point out was the reduced participation (low liquidity and volume) – this DISTORTS the technical picture – always keep this in mind during such times.

And NO, I do NOT know where PRICE is going – I have a very good idea but I don’t trade on ideas – I trade on PASR.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,468
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:29am Dec 14, 2009 10:29am
NZDUSD BIG BOSS chart. Simply put 0.5, 0.6, 0.7 and 0.8 levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusd.png Size: 26 KB
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,469
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:41am Dec 14, 2009 10:41am
I was told recently by 'city mate' that even volume in equities is meaning less and less these days as the dark pools are taking away more of the trade. The 'off exchange' stuff is gathering momentum as it's giving traders and companies an advantage - the SEC are currently looking into this I believe?

So it shows, that you must always be able to adapt to what the charts are telling you (or what they should be telling you!) The VSA guys are probably being taken to the cleaners with all this as they rely on small bars and volume signals to enter a trade!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,470
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:45am Dec 14, 2009 10:45am
Quoting kiwipom
Again, this is one of my goals for this thread – for students to discuss trading related issues.

Many times I get fed up just seeing my posts and long for some interaction – but NOT from the lurkers and freeloaders – they will ALWAYS get my “Go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning” reply. I detest those who jump in here wanting our opinion of their analysis!

Hi Strat and all,
I apologise that i have not posted since i introduced myself but i am intending to do so more in the new year.
I am still...
I realise that we mainly trade daily with PASR

WHAT? We ONLY trade with PASR!

I would say that the big boss has been in an uptrend (all be it slight) for the best part of the last 12 years.

More sideways than up but yes, a slight upward bias.

The Boss was in an uptrend until approx a year ago but then changed into a down trend.
The worker is stuck in a down trend with the 20 and 50 now merging together with price below approaching 1.5950ish which is the lower low of the current down trend.

Correct – they are only obeying orders!

I can’t help but think that the 1.58 area is crucial for the future direction of this pair, given the S/R and what will be a confirmed trend line (3rd touch) or a change of the long term trend if the price breaks the resistance? giving a potential lower low

No need to “think”, the chart is SHOUTING at you!

When i think of the possible trades this may provide i currently start to think of what could trigger such a move.

WHY? Are you a funny metalist? Do you want more stress in your life?

PRICE will move one way or another WHEN the big boys want it to move. When that happens, you will SEE it on your charts. We always follow the big boys. Just wait with PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE for PASR in the direction of the big boys.

Hope this makes sense to someone at some level and i am not totally of my rocker...

Not a bad club to be in – I’ve been in it for years according to my BOSS and friends!

EURAUD is not one of my favourite pairs so maybe Blackeagle can shed more light on this
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,471
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:50am Dec 14, 2009 10:50am
Quoting Blackeagle
If the general premise is that USD is oversold and we see USDCHF looking up but we see USDJPY looking down If this is the case, then CHFJPY will break the range downward.

Does this mean we can expect USDJPY to follow at some point or does the BOJ have other plans? If this is the case, range may continue which would be a tradable range similar to EJ.

And good thinking that it always gives a trader an edge to check main currencies before trading crosses. And for CHFJPY case, I believe USDJPY will be the decider since it is not following...
If the general premise is that USD is oversold and we see USDCHF looking up but we see USDJPY looking down If this is the case, then CHFJPY will break the range downward.

Does this mean we can expect USDJPY to follow at some point or does the BOJ have other plans? If this is the case, range may continue which would be a tradable range similar to EJ.

And good thinking that it always gives a trader an edge to check main currencies before trading crosses. And for CHFJPY case, I believe USDJPY will be the decider since it is not following the herd.

Words of Wisdom - ignore at your peril!

Thanks Blackeagle.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,472
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:59am Dec 14, 2009 10:59am
Quoting LarryK
Here is my chart as at end of trading on friday.

As you can see I have decided that the PA justified a trade, an IB in thursday which triggered on friday and moved up very nicely and was in a nice little profit of 58 pips at one time. It ended the day badly and I really don't like the look of that candle now. Would it be advisable to exit on the basis of that candle and cut my losses or is there still hope for the trade.

I felt that the PA was close enough to my SR to justify considering the trade and placed my SL well under the bottom SR (although...
As you can see I have decided that the PA justified a trade, an IB in Thursday

That is NOT PASR trading as taught on this thread!

IB trading is an advanced strategy later in The Path when you have mastered BASIC PASR!

Would it be advisable to exit on the basis of that candle and cut my losses or is there still hope for the trade.

Anytime you have doubts like these – CLOSE THE TRADE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If you don’t, the demons and gremlins, little men in your head and the man in the mirror will eat you for lunch, supper and breakfast! This will send you BACKWARDS on The Path.

Larry, like I have told so many others, STICK TO BASIC PASR. Build up your confidence in this FIRST.

STOP “LOOKING” for trades – only trade when you “SEE” PASR

Are you sure you UNDERSTAND PASR?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,473
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:09am Dec 14, 2009 11:09am
Quoting Spinner


but I'm trying hard and I'm just damn confused right now and more than a little irritated that if this is supposed to be a short why I don't see it.
-m

but I'm trying hard and I'm just damn confused right now and more than a little irritated that if this is supposed to be a short why I don't see it.
-m

As you want some discussion, let's try

Maybe this irritation is at not have taken the...
Maybe this irritation is at not have taken the shooting star on the 3rd Dec + the long candle next day as a sell signal. Well, to me they were not, as we were still in an uptrend, but certainly a cause for irritation seeing what happened next.

20/20 hindsight will always “do yer ‘ead in” so don’t do it!

That Shooting Star at resistance was the signal for longs to take profit or pull up their SL to protect profit – it was NOT a signal to go short.

Now, I don't think there was a call for short now either, not at this point after this sell off.

It was a good counter trend trade but NOT for students of this thread. Counter trend trades are ALWAYS very risky and we only want low risk, safe trades on here.

Maybe to look at a place to join it down (a lower high), or look for a place for a bounce up between here and the 1.4450 area (minor).

For now I favour the second option even if it's just and ATM bounce or take half, place SL in B/E (up to that lower high?).

Why guess at what to do? Let the big boys and PASR show you the way.


Good discussion though, thanks.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,474
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:27am Dec 14, 2009 11:27am
Quoting Spinner
Now I'll post something so others can give opinions

Monthly: Cable is in a coil, in exactly the same place it was ranging from Jan 96 till Dec 2002, then again Jan 2002 till September 2003.

Weekly: has pierced the lows of the last eight weeks after two weeks of indecision.

Daily: has closed under a four touch trend line (so what?). And playing around a very minor sup ( also 23.6 fibo of the last rally from the...
First, my fine feathered friend, drawing your TLs or whatever they are like that will get you into serious financial trouble if you trade off them.

Now I'll post something so others can give opinions

Monthly: Cable is in a coil, in exactly the same place it was ranging from Jan 96 till Dec 2002, then again Jan 2002 till September 2003.

Not anything like a coil on my data. In a triangle yes, but not a coil.

Weekly: has pierced the lows of the last eight weeks after two weeks of indecision.

Take another look at how and why you have dawn your SR levels. The BOSS is still respecting well established support.

Daily: has closed under a four touch trend line (so what?).

That TL has as much value as a clockwork orange!

And playing around a very minor sup ( also 23.6 fibo of the last rally from the 25th Jan to 2nd of Aug 09).

But its still stuck in a range!

What I find interesting is that we have had two inside bars daily and notice (for pattern traders), it's closed on the neckline of a SHS.

Too wild an imagination for me! I just see a 4th test of support by the Worker and another test by the BOSS on an important support.

So, if it breaks down, maybe go to the next sup (1.5780) Which has been defining the low of the ranges in several occasions and close to the 38.2 fibo of the same rally. Also target of the SHS.

Yes, IF it breaks down – but WAIT for PRICE to show us that it HAS broken down – don’t guess.

Maybe a short under the bottom of Wednesday's low?

Is that PASR that is being taught on here? Stick to BASIC PASR and you will not get into trouble.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,475
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:36am Dec 14, 2009 11:36am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Here are my views on the PA Larry.

Look at the monthly chart as well.

And yes i would place my stop below Fridays candle.
The real clue was that PRICE did not make it to the range high (91.50) from the Hammer on Nov 26 and the size of that Hammer.

This tells us the sellers are still controlling the leg from October 26.

DON’T FIGHT THE TREND!

Despite what others may tell you, trends are everywhere – they come in all shapes and sizes.

A trend may be only 3 days or 3 years – its not really what the trend is BUT what we do with the knowledge of a trend.

Remember, there ARE trends WITHIN ranges
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,476
  • Dec 14, 2009 11:40am Dec 14, 2009 11:40am
Quoting PipMobile
I thought i woke up this morning and was hallucinating. Or was I really?

I see H/S on AUD/USD with an objective of ~.8500

Though I have been short on AUD since the lovely hammer early this month, the pattern seems to have completed recently.

Watch out for the break of neckline at ~.8950, but be careful, BOSS20 is loitering around there as well.


Cheers.
I thought i woke up this morning and was hallucinating. Or was I really?

I see H/S on AUD/USD with an objective of ~.8500

Though I have been short on AUD since the lovely hammer early this month, the pattern seems to have completed recently.

Watch out for the break of neckline at ~.8950, but be careful, BOSS20 is loitering around there as well.

Stay off the acid and read and UNDERSTAND The Path of Learning – but there again we need a Market!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,477
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:10pm Dec 14, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting strat
First, my fine feathered friend, drawing your TLs or whatever they are like that will get you into serious financial trouble if you trade off them....

Thanks for comments. Very glad indeed to get the feedback.

Sad about the trendline I was quite happy with it Yet welcome.

Maybe this trend line is better?

As for the S/R point I only really see 1.6712 and 1.5780 as meaningful the one in the middle (1.6164) maybe shud be a minor one at 1.6113.

Of course I will wait for PASR before entering.

Thanks again

Spinner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP usd 22009-12-14_18-08.jpg Size: 139 KB
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,478
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:21pm Dec 14, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting strat
So, if we got together on a fundotechnical basis, we should be able to kill this market - right?

Blackeagle - you have another way at looking at currencies pairs - what say you and how can we forge a meaningful direction?

Nicola - what about you and your Hedge Fund Manager - can you provide inspiration?
Indeed, that is how I was trained.

The EUR CHF argument is interesting. To me EURUSD is the most technical pair on the board; however, I do find the various S/R levels tested more frequently through CHF. That was the case earlier in the year for me, but as you say it is an individualized approach. I bet if one does the math, the pip range per day is still higher for CHF. It was in the past.
  • #8,479
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:24pm Dec 14, 2009 12:24pm
Quoting Grimweasel
LOL!!!
Found this chart on a blog! Bless; as long as people load up their charts like this and ignore the price action is gives us someone to take money from!! How many squiggly lines does one need to justify a trade??
We have all been there, Danny boy – especially me – I was trapped in Indicator Land for years!

Its JC time so let’s have some fun with this!

Based on RSI and Slow Stoch and CCI, there may be a day or two left before the turn

Wow, this guy is in really bad shape – he needs 2 RSIs (RSI 5 and RSI 14) to foretell the future!

Since both RSIs are LAGGING behind PRICE at least 5 and 14 days, how can he tell there may be a day or two left before the turn?

Wait a minute, there is NO mention of PRICE!

Oh right, PRICE follows the indicators – I forgot about that.

There is no divergence in RSI and plenty of room to get to the trendline for the next leg up

Where is this magic rule in trading? PRICE does not KNOW or even CARE about divergence – it will do what PRICE wants to do regardless of what a stupid indicator says.

MACD histogram has not turned yet, when it does buying oil may be a good place

The Law of Probabilities say you have a 50/50 chance of being right.

Oh yes, so does a coin toss!

Why draw a TL on a meaningless indicator when you can draw a very meaningful TL on PRICE!

Oooooh look! The slow stoch is down at 5.06 and waiting to cross.

How many false starts have you given before you useless piece of SHIT!

Oooooh look! The CCI is down at -216.77!

How many times has it been down there before? How do we know which one to believe?

Oooooh look! The Trix is crossing below zero and………………….

So what, it is 15 days LAGGING behind PRICE.

Just because this guy has drawn in the boundaries of these indicators does NOT mean that they have to/will turn around. They can stay TRAPPED below these levels FOR AS LONG AS PRICE KEEPS EITHER AT THIS LEVEL OR STARTS GOING DOWN MORE.

12/10 – So is the blue channel support or the pink TL the stopping point?

If you didn’t draw so many damned lines, you would be able to SEE!

The retracement is complete, the lower BB is blown out and so is RSI 5.

Based on what? PRICE can continue below BBs for a long time when they get in a strong trend.

The faster you push indicators (RSI 5), the more they tell you what YOU want to believe. You can “ modify” any indicator to show what you want it to show

Maybe a pop back to the 45 ma is in order soon near 77.39

Most definitely – but WHEN and WHERE from?

Believing indicators foretell PRICE is bad enough but this guy has his head up his ass!

He has 6 LAGGING indicators following way behind PRICE.

4 of these indicators, RSI (twice), Stochastic and CCI are Momentum indicators and use the SAME DATA to produce the SAME, USELESS wiggly squiggly line!

I bet this guy even thinks he has confluence of indicators! Poor sod!

The other 2, MACD and Trix are trend indicators again using the SAME DATA to produce the SAME MEANINGLESS result.

Not once does this guy mention PRICE!

I wonder if he even realizes he is trading PRICE?

From what I see, he is trading indicators.

I am so glad and thankful I ESCAPED from indicator land. THANK YOU!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,480
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:39pm Dec 14, 2009 12:39pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
[color=blue]If I were going to play this short I would have to either take the break of DSRI on the 8th and subsequent retest and fail on Friday or the piercing of the 100....
I think your doing fine. From my perspective Strat was just pointing out that the sellers are now in force BUT were stopped at the boss 20 to close out the week. We need to wait and see who will win the battle here, if the sellers are strong enough to bring us down to 1.44 then i believe we will see a good reaction there. As stated many times before we must wait to see LL and LH made before calling it a possible trend change.

No, I didn't do it for that Craig but everything else is good especially the encouragement for Marcus.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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