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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #8,421
  • Edited 3:01pm Dec 12, 2009 2:38pm | Edited 3:01pm
Quoting LarryK
So they aren't a pretty couple.

Any comment on the PASR that I could learn from?

Here are my views on the PA Larry.

Look at the monthly chart as well.

And yes i would place my stop below Fridays candle.
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  • #8,422
  • Dec 12, 2009 3:14pm Dec 12, 2009 3:14pm
Quoting Jideck
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I read your post and thought I shall reply especially with regard to your comment [font=Arial]Many times I get fed up just seeing my posts and long for some interaction -[font=Verdana] I believe that your posts are self explanatory and that any comment after yours would have to be extra special....
Can i second that!!. Strat, thanks for bringing us back to the right track.
  • #8,423
  • Dec 12, 2009 3:32pm Dec 12, 2009 3:32pm
I thought i woke up this morning and was hallucinating. Or was I really?

I see H/S on AUD/USD with an objective of ~.8500

Though I have been short on AUD since the lovely hammer early this month, the pattern seems to have completed recently.

Watch out for the break of neckline at ~.8950, but be careful, BOSS20 is loitering around there as well.


Cheers.
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  • #8,424
  • Dec 12, 2009 5:17pm Dec 12, 2009 5:17pm
LOL!!!
Found this chart on a blog! Bless; as long as people load up their charts like this and ignore the price action is gives us someone to take money from!! How many squiggly lines does one need to justify a trade??
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,425
  • Dec 12, 2009 6:32pm Dec 12, 2009 6:32pm
Quoting mstandifer
Spinner, thank you for your comments....
If I were going to play this short I would have to either take the break of DSRI on the 8th and subsequent retest and fail on Friday or the piercing of the 100. Neither of which is a qualified trade as far as the rules go.

We could beat ourselves up all day on how we "should" be in this trade but the bottom line is exactly what you said yourself. There was no stress free entry here.

The only other alternative is to watch for the next LH at resistance and look for a price reversal bar (SS or BEEB).

Hit the nail on the head here! I will be waiting as well.

So, my irritation is based on the assumption (which may or may not be correct) that Strat's chart is saying short this and I just don't see it based on that chart. Maybe I'm trying to see something that isn't there but if it is, then PLEASE beat me about the head and shoulders with it because I know Strat posts those charts for a reason. I'm just not there yet to be able to tell why.

I think your doing fine. From my perspective Strat was just pointing out that the sellers are now in force BUT were stopped at the boss 20 to close out the week. We need to wait and see who will win the battle here, if the sellers are strong enough to bring us down to 1.44 then i believe we will see a good reaction there. As stated many times before we must wait to see LL and LH made before calling it a possible trend change.
  • #8,426
  • Dec 12, 2009 10:00pm Dec 12, 2009 10:00pm
Hi tradershttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif

Here is another week of AUDUSD trading:

Big Boss - As per last week, inside candle, red candle.

Boss - last week we have rejection of a minor SR, the candle is the opposite that of previous week (a bond hammer), red candle, a major tug of war between buyers and sellers, a pause before possible change of trend - soft signals are appearing there but not anything solid as a close under a 0.8900 - so there is still up trend here.

Worker - Price has tested some ground around 0.9000 and shot up again and currently is stuck on 20MA, the candle is BEOB. Head and Shoulders too. Furthermore, MA's have separated and are moving away from each other, however they are still a bit flat, (they need to point much down). LH and a wedge is forming.

Action:

1. For - trend traders - wait for PA to show a way, similarily as last week, no opportunity. PA need to close above 0.9300 before doing anything.

2. For - against trend traders -enter a trade after a close below 0.9000 towards 0.8800 and then 0.8500

Signs of possible trend change on this pair. I am waiting for PA confirmation on the above entries.

Happy trading http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
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  • #8,427
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:46am Dec 13, 2009 12:46am
Quoting mstandifer
Now I'm confused. For the most part I'm a very literal person and tend to take things at face value. That certainly doesn't mean I can't reason things out, it just means I don't do so well with vagaries.

Strat, I know better than to say you've made a call here in either direction but it seems the implication is short.

However, I'm going to stick it out here because I'm honestly confused. Everyone is screaming short on the euro and long the dollar and so far those charts agree like you are saying. Here's where I'm just not able to see it......
Hi Mstandifer,

To me the Boss is giving us the warning sign. If you combine the two candles together, that is the heck of a statement there. Here the thing I started to understand that until we can learn to read the boss, we can not trend trading. Here the secret Strat already gave us in some posts, "Some ATM trades turned into trend change". Keep it simple, look at the Boss for guidence, look at worker for opportunity. Well easy to say I am still learning and that is my narrow point of view.
  • #8,428
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:33am Dec 13, 2009 1:33am
Hi All,

This is interesting guys. I would like to open a discussion and learning purpose only. Strat please comments on these. I find that audchf is very similar to eurusd but fast forward in the future please see charts. On weekly charts, Boss gave us warning on 11-15-09 and 11-22-09. On daily chart, we are @ a very interesting level.
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  • #8,429
  • Edited 7:13am Dec 13, 2009 6:32am | Edited 7:13am
Quoting mstandifer
Now I'm confused. For the most part I'm a very literal person and tend to take things at face value. That certainly doesn't mean I can't reason things out, it just means I don't do so well with vagaries.
-m
After going through only 100 pages through the thread I totally share the view with mstandifer. Will these 2 bearish weeks reverse the entire 10 month up trend? I think Dr. Joe still says no shorts yet.

But I see market giving us alot of conflicting signals, as longer period signals say long, shorter term signals are screaming short

Last time 20 crossed 50 on worker we know what happened. Now price was stoped by 20 BOSS. If we look back at 2008/08/02 we can see price also stoping at 20 BOSS before continuing what was the start of a trend.

I say now we should see what price will do at this 20 BOSS level to show us further direction what it wants to do next. One more thing I want to share. In one of these many forex books I have been told that if everyone is saying short, most likely they are wrong and opposite direction move is good choice and I have found this to be true most of the time.

Now I hear everybody scream buy dollar = Time to sell, so I'm looking for price action to go long here.
  • #8,430
  • Dec 13, 2009 6:52am Dec 13, 2009 6:52am
Quoting PipMobile
I thought i woke up this morning and was hallucinating. Or was I really?

.
Indeed....from 11/25 "I would see if the commodity currencies are able to make new levels and trade accordingly."
  • #8,431
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:28am Dec 13, 2009 10:28am
Quoting patrick25
Keep it simple, look at the Boss for guidance, look at Worker for opportunity.

Amen.
  • #8,432
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:59am Dec 13, 2009 10:59am
Sorry if I'm out of order here, I found this threat very interesting and comply with what I want to be in the future as a trader, I will post here after I finish reading all the thread, I'm on page 71, but I found this post by Nicola, that brings like a Deja Vu to whats happening right now with the EUR/USD, same countries mentioned and all.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1057

Hope to be with you after finishing and understanding everything of this thread, think in a couple of weeks or more, but will read all the posts, I know that at the end it would help me a lot.

Regards,

f4p
  • #8,433
  • Dec 13, 2009 11:40am Dec 13, 2009 11:40am
Strat

How does one get onto your 'The Path of Learning'.

In anticipation
Insanefx
  • #8,434
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:10pm Dec 13, 2009 12:10pm
Did some spread analysis this weekend and I may take a few pairs off my watch list, regardless of PA as the spreads with my broker are too wide.

EurNzd is 25 pips, so 50 pip round trip before any profits or added to losses!
GbpCad is 10 pips, so 20 pip round trip
EurCad is 10 pips, 20 pips round trip
GbpAud is 15 pips, 30 pips round trip

Plus, they use the mid price of the spread to close the trade which is a bit naughty I believe as you are then robbed of the spread above/below that mid price I think? Unless I have this bit wrong?
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,435
  • Edited 2:23pm Dec 13, 2009 12:44pm | Edited 2:23pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Did some spread analysis this weekend and I may take a few pairs off my watch list, regardless of PA as the spreads with my broker are too wide.

EurNzd is 25 pips, so 50 pip round trip before any profits or added to losses!
GbpCad is 10 pips, so 20 pip round trip
EurCad is 10 pips, 20 pips round trip
GbpAud is 15 pips, 30 pips round trip

Plus, they use the mid price of the spread to close the trade which is a bit naughty I believe as you are then robbed of the spread above/below that mid price I think? Unless I have this bit wrong?
Do you use IGindex as a broker like myself ? if so their spreads are here http://www.igindex.co.uk/spread-bett...g-spreads.html. It's also interesting to see that their spreads increase around NY close ??

I must admit to creating a "low spread" list on my charting package thus encouraging me to select my analysis from the lower cost pairs, especially since I am still on the path to learning and trading to the first SR, high spreads are therefore a higher percentage cut of the overall profit taken.

Also, if you are with IG have you had any UK company based spread trading experience using PASR. I had a look through the FTSE 100 shares last week and found 3 stocks that were performing beautiful retracements back to major trendlines ( see Kingfisher Plc and Xstrata Plc - charts not posted so as not to distract this thread )
  • #8,436
  • Dec 13, 2009 2:58pm Dec 13, 2009 2:58pm
Quoting cliftonarms
Do you use IGindex as a broker like myself ? if so their spreads are here http://www.igindex.co.uk/spread-bett...g-spreads.html. It's also interesting to see that their spreads increase around NY close ??

I must admit to creating a "low spread" list on my charting package thus encouraging me to select my analysis from the lower cost pairs, especially since I am still on the path to learning and trading to the first SR, high spreads are therefore a higher percentage cut of the overall profit taken.

Also, if you are...
Hi Clifton!,
Yes, IG for me; I have tried many brokers and I found the worst to be CMC; bad fills and hugely slipped entries and exits. IG have been around for 30yrs and I know a few seasoned guys using them. I use sharescope and there are many ways of doing exactly the same stuff on UK shares. I tend to use only the weekly charts as they are very reliable for stocks. As an example have a look at Faroe Petro' (FPM) this evening.

On that chart we have a great entry short. A lower high after a Shooting Star a few weeks ago, in the shape of a BEOB. Tesco has a BEOB at the top of a range, with Vodafone showing a nice double top with IB/Hanging Man. ishares Global Clean energy ETf shows a nice shooter off a test from underside of a broken TL. So, just a quick look at the charts shows a few opportunities for the same PA leading the way.
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,437
  • Edited 4:14pm Dec 13, 2009 4:02pm | Edited 4:14pm
Quoting Grimweasel
Hi Clifton!,
Yes, IG for me; I have tried many brokers and I found the worst to be CMC; bad fills and hugely slipped entries and exits. IG have been around for 30yrs and I know a few seasoned guys using them. I use sharescope and there are many ways of doing exactly the same stuff on UK shares. I tend to use only the weekly charts as they are very reliable for stocks. As an example have a look at Faroe Petro' (FPM) this evening.

On that chart we have a great entry short. A lower high after a Shooting Star a few weeks ago, in the shape of a BEOB....

Wow...

There was me tentatively casting my PASR fishing line into UK shares and you already have the trawler nets in place... Thanks for the advice to use weekly as the worker.

For me it makes sense to look to the stocks when FOREX is troubled, as it avoids the evil temptation to "hunt" for less than perfect price action entries.

Cheers Grim

PS. Sharescope - Is it worth the money ?? ( silly question if you are using it )
  • #8,438
  • Dec 13, 2009 4:07pm Dec 13, 2009 4:07pm
Quoting cliftonarms
...( see Kingfisher Plc and Xstrata Plc - charts not posted so as not to distract this thread )
Hi cliftonarms, please do past charts! I would love to see PASR applied to other instruments not forex only and I dont think I'm alone . So if you want please post.

Have a great week ahead everyone!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,439
  • Dec 13, 2009 4:19pm Dec 13, 2009 4:19pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi All,

This is interesting guys. I would like to open a discussion and learning purpose only. Strat please comments on these. I find that audchf is very similar to eurusd but fast forward in the future please see charts. On weekly charts, Boss gave us warning on 11-15-09 and 11-22-09. On daily chart, we are @ a very interesting level.
Hi Patrick,

In November, the Big-Boss wanted to change direction and go South but she wasn't too convincing. She didn't convinced the Boss and Worker, at least not yet. But there is still time to convince them

Maybe the Worker can convince the Boss to convince the Big-Boss that is not yet the time to head South.

Price is at a resistance level. Lets see how the candle from Monday looks like. A new high above that resistance will confirm that the bullish trend hasn't stopped. There is no PASR on the Worker. At least I dont see any.
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  • #8,440
  • Dec 13, 2009 7:23pm Dec 13, 2009 7:23pm
[quote=mstandifer;3301186]Now I'm confused. For the most part I'm a very literal person and tend to take things at face value. That certainly doesn't mean I can't reason things out, it just means I don't do so well with vagaries.

I think Strats answer to Soso NZDUSD post #8386 is very relevant to the EurUsd chart you posted as he seems to imply that we should expect some correction after the strong impulsive move from Mar 09 but since we are not trying to pick market tops or bottoms I agree with you that we might have to sit aside until the direction is clear. I seem to recall Strat saying market might be a bit thin in Dec due some of the big boys taking early holidays and leaving the apprentices to trade. If this is the case how much should we discount current price action as not been reflective of a truly liquid market. I guess new traders like myself should stay out until next year.
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