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0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

  • #1,921
  • Dec 13, 2009 6:34am Dec 13, 2009 6:34am
Quoting JarodM
hello everyone....I was reading through the thread and I must say I like what I see. Very simple to use. I do have one question after reading through all the threads. Does anyone have any opinions on ufgators post because it does make sense to me about trading with less that 2:1 risk vs reward. I was doing some research and it does seem that the professionals are around 50 to 60% right. When I did the math I came up with the following:

Entry with 2 orders
SL of average of 50 pips since it is different on each trade.

2 orders means I am risking...
Hi Jarrod,

my version of this method has a risk/reward of 1:5, ie risk 1, win 5

Sept, 12 trades, 6 wins, 5 losses, 1 BE, +25%
Oct, 12 trades, 3 wins, 8 losses, 1 BE, +7%
Nov, 9 trades, 5 wins, 3 losses, 1 BE, +22%
Dec (to date), 3 trades, 1 win, 1 loss, 1 BE, +4%.

All the above are my actual live account results...

hope that helps..

Grant
  • #1,922
  • Dec 13, 2009 8:59am Dec 13, 2009 8:59am
hi,
i not so clear about 2-5 gtm, at 5 gtm, is it means after 5:01 then we place order or it include 5:00 am which means we place order at 6:01 ??
base on using 1hr chart.
  • #1,923
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:51pm Dec 13, 2009 12:51pm
i had do a manual backtest from April to Nov with set up listed below,
SL=40 and TP=30, not include speard (one order only and 1 trade per day), close all pending order after 9:01 if order not trigger.
7 pips buffer for long and short and no trial stop included.
with rule EMA90, follow the direction and when EMA inside box take either way.
from 2-5 gtm include 5:00, start send order at 6:01
not include the RSI anti trend direction trade.
win- loss total
April win 11 loss 3 330 - 120 210
May win 9 loss 5 270 - 200 70
Jun win 9 loss 0 270 - 0 270
Jul& win 19 loss 8 570 - 320 250
Aug
Sept win 11 loss 5 330 - 200 130
Oct win 7 loss 4 210 - 160 50
Nov win 9 loss 4 270 - 160 110

over all is win 75 : loss 29 = win 4 : 1.2 loss

if using trail stop, the result will be different, and i think when the order have 10-15 pips in hand if move the SL closer, it also can reduce the loss. for the 29 loss, around 8-14 trade.

and i also check that is using the RSI anti trend entry, it give 21 win and 10 loss.

Hi grant18265, can you share you setup entry? i search the previous post but cant find it, can you repost it? thanks
  • #1,924
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:38pm Dec 13, 2009 1:38pm
Quoting wawarulez
Hey Greg,

was wondering what time for your box do you use?

Thanks

Hi,

Alpari time: "place order at" : 7 H 15 min
"use previous x 15 min bars": 10
  • #1,925
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:55pm Dec 13, 2009 1:55pm
Grant,

Would you mind posting the EA you used here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1422

I want to do some testing

Thanks!
Bali

Quoting grant18265
Hi Jarrod,

my version of this method has a risk/reward of 1:5, ie risk 1, win 5

Sept, 12 trades, 6 wins, 5 losses, 1 BE, +25%
Oct, 12 trades, 3 wins, 8 losses, 1 BE, +7%
Nov, 9 trades, 5 wins, 3 losses, 1 BE, +22%
Dec (to date), 3 trades, 1 win, 1 loss, 1 BE, +4%.

All the above are my actual live account results...

hope that helps..

Grant
  • #1,926
  • Dec 13, 2009 2:12pm Dec 13, 2009 2:12pm
Quoting bali2002
Grant,

Would you mind posting the EA you used here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=1422

I want to do some testing

Thanks!
Bali

hi Bali,

if you take a look over at the Big Dog thread, the latest version by RBI is there.

i trade this method manually and only used an older version of the EA for backtesting. i have since deleted this version, apologies, but like i said you can find the latest version at the Big Dog thread..


cheers

Grant
  • #1,927
  • Dec 13, 2009 4:32pm Dec 13, 2009 4:32pm
Quoting bali2002
My best setup:

[size=1][b]TP1=300; TP2=600; TP3=1000; TP3_control=true; expiration_hours=11; place_order_at_hour=8; place_order_at_minute=15; use_previous_x_15_min_bars=13; buffer_for_entry=0; turn_on_spread=false; buffer_for_SL=0; max_range_SL=5000; SL_factor=1; Lots_control=false; unitlot=400; Lots=1; Lots_TP2=1; Lots_TP3=1; close_order=true; order_close_at_hour=21; order_close_at_minute=0; move_new_SL_when_TP1_BE=true; var_from_entry=0; var_from_TP1=0; str1="-=MA setting=-"; MA_idicator=false; MA_TF=15; MA_period=90; OCO=false; magic_num=3144569;...
Hi,
I've quickly glanced through the charts using this setting and it seems quite good. Have You back tested it over a number of years? Also I notice that when conditions aren't right you tend to get consecutive losses within 1 or 2 weeks then it goes right again. So probably have to view this strategy on a monthly basis rather than weekly.

thanks
  • #1,928
  • Dec 13, 2009 4:39pm Dec 13, 2009 4:39pm
I've only checked it over 2009.

Quoting nevic
Hi,
I've quickly glanced through the charts using this setting and it seems quite good. Have You back tested it over a number of years? Also I notice that when conditions aren't right you tend to get consecutive losses within 1 or 2 weeks then it goes right again. So probably have to view this strategy on a monthly basis rather than weekly.

thanks
  • #1,929
  • Dec 13, 2009 11:49pm Dec 13, 2009 11:49pm
Quoting gregart
Hi,

Alpari time: "place order at" : 7 H 15 min
sorry to be annoying but can any1 tell me if alpari is GMT or something else?

Thanks
  • #1,930
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:27am Dec 14, 2009 1:27am
Quoting wawarulez
sorry to be annoying but can any1 tell me if alpari is GMT or something else?

Thanks
Alpari is GMT+1 I think.
  • #1,931
  • Dec 14, 2009 1:39am Dec 14, 2009 1:39am
Today is one of those days where I am not comfortable to trade London open with this huge spike up + down.

Good luck to you all. See you tomorrow.

  • #1,932
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:41am Dec 14, 2009 9:41am
What a dull Monday.

Looks like the silly season is starting early.

Tomorrow is my last trading day for this year.

I will them take a well deserved 3 week break till next year.

  • #1,933
  • Dec 14, 2009 6:18pm Dec 14, 2009 6:18pm
some post are missing
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #1,934
  • Dec 14, 2009 9:42pm Dec 14, 2009 9:42pm
how do you get the to do backtests my ibfx charts keep jumping back to present time
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #1,935
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:00pm Dec 14, 2009 10:00pm
Quoting maq
how do you get the to do backtests my ibfx charts keep jumping back to present time
Disable the "Auto Scroll" function, will prevent the chart keep jumping back to present time.
  • #1,936
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:31pm Dec 14, 2009 10:31pm
thanks mate sorted

Quoting maxximuz
Disable the "Auto Scroll" function, will prevent the chart keep jumping back to present time.
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #1,937
  • Dec 14, 2009 10:39pm Dec 14, 2009 10:39pm
grant

your version is 3-5 gmt is that kick off at 5.01?
also you use 90ema is that on m15 chart?

thanks

Quoting grant18265
Hi Jarrod,

my version of this method has a risk/reward of 1:5, ie risk 1, win 5

Sept, 12 trades, 6 wins, 5 losses, 1 BE, +25%
Oct, 12 trades, 3 wins, 8 losses, 1 BE, +7%
Nov, 9 trades, 5 wins, 3 losses, 1 BE, +22%
Dec (to date), 3 trades, 1 win, 1 loss, 1 BE, +4%.

All the above are my actual live account results...

hope that helps..

Grant
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #1,938
  • Dec 15, 2009 12:07am Dec 15, 2009 12:07am
Quoting maq
grant

your version is 3-5 gmt is that kick off at 5.01?
also you use 90ema is that on m15 chart?

thanks
maq,

i use 4-6 am (04.01 - 0559) UK time year round and 85 ema on a 15 min chart

cheers

Grant
  • #1,939
  • Dec 15, 2009 12:11am Dec 15, 2009 12:11am
so no trade today as ema going through the box

Quoting grant18265
maq,

i use 4-6 am (04.01 - 0559) UK time year round and 85 ema on a 15 min chart

cheers

Grant
"The person who knows that enough is enough, will always have enough". .
  • #1,940
  • Dec 15, 2009 12:54am Dec 15, 2009 12:54am
Quoting maq
so no trade today as ema going through the box
correct, no trade for me today..

Grant
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