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  • #171,441
  • Edited 11:24am Dec 13, 2009 11:09am | Edited 11:24am
Well, if you thought last weeks news was bad, this weeks numbers will have a greater effect on potentially weakening the euro and strenghtening the dollar.

Monday
Industrial Production EU, France and Germany already reported, rest of EU due
We are also seeing the quarterly change in unemployment generall expected to worsen, weakening the euro

Big Tuesday
We have the UK RPI, CPI and core CPI due. Germany sentiment, lets see if it can stay above 50, this accounts for almost 40% of EU output. Any number under 51 will hurt the euro. And then the US PPI and the core PPI due, PPI is expected to come in at 1.0, better then forecasted, strengtening the dollar. The US industrial production is expected to come in at 0.6, better then forecasted; strenghtening the dollar again. Then the French CPI, second biggest economy in EU forecasted at 0.2 so there will be no reason for a rate hike any time soon. It may come in at 0.1 weakening the euro even further.

So a quiet Monday followed by a big Tuesday and then FOMC and Core CPI on Wednesday, to come in on forecast. The early part of next week looks like a strenghtening of the dollar and a weakening of the euro.

Then we have all the flash PMI's due and finally the Current Account on Friday, again expected to worsen.

I am glad I am a techie, getting my head around the news is making my head spin. It is important to figure out though what the general consensus of direction is based on the numbers. This will all be reflected in the charts, just don't join the spike in the wrong direction, like some of you did on Friday.....


The biggest question is does all this bad news in Europe for three weeks on the trot amount to a trend change? let's see where we close on Friday, it is not looking good for the euro....

My long term outlook is still bullish, I want to see 3-4 weeks closing consistently lower before I agree on bearish outlook.
  • #171,442
  • Dec 13, 2009 11:55am Dec 13, 2009 11:55am
Another thing that you have to take into consideration is that for the better part of a year the dollar has been artificially kept low. This has been working good up, until now.

The problem now is that the actual economies these countries are catching up. With the US interest rates already at the bottom, it simply won't be that easy to make the dollar look as weak as it has been.
  • #171,443
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:01pm Dec 13, 2009 12:01pm
Quoting tenaciousj
Another thing that you have to take into consideration is that for the better part of a year the dollar has been artificially kept low. This has been working good up, until now.

The problem now is that the actual economies these countries are catching up. With the US interest rates already at the bottom, it simply won't be that easy to make the dollar look as weak as it has been.
Look at your charts again. The dollar has actually strengthened up this past year.Remember, we wer just at 1.6 not too long ago. So this is actually a little stronger than 2 years ago.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #171,444
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:05pm Dec 13, 2009 12:05pm
A question on MA's

I was taught only 20ema and 50sma
which I use on my charts for all timeframes.
I look for crosses and 50sma for trend etc.

What baffles me is I notice others using all sorts
of different MA's 14 , 21, 100, 200, 62, etc..

Am I neglecting something here.
rat
  • #171,445
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:05pm Dec 13, 2009 12:05pm
Quoting tenaciousj
Another thing that you have to take into consideration is that for the better part of a year the dollar has been artificially kept low. This has been working good up, until now.

The problem now is that the actual economies these countries are catching up. With the US interest rates already at the bottom, it simply won't be that easy to make the dollar look as weak as it has been.
The dollar was not kept arificially low, high supplies and a low yield will reduce the price of any asset. The flooding of the market by the US government, coupled with lower interest rates in the US and the switch of investors to non US investment, gold etc. drove the dollar down.
  • #171,446
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:09pm Dec 13, 2009 12:09pm
Quoting tonyo524
Look at your charts again. The dollar has actually strengthened up this past year.Remember, we wer just at 1.6 not too long ago. So this is actually a little stronger than 2 years ago.
Agree we had 5981 in April 08
  • #171,447
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:09pm Dec 13, 2009 12:09pm
Quoting cloggie
The flooding of the market by the US government, coupled with lower interest rates in the US and the switch of investors to non US investment, gold etc. drove the dollar down.
Is the flooding of the market by the FED and low interest rates set by the FED not an attempt to keep it low? I think we are agreeing.
  • #171,448
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:13pm Dec 13, 2009 12:13pm
Quoting tenaciousj
Is the flooding of the market by the FED and low interest rates set by the FED not an attempt to keep it low? I think we are agreeing.
No, you have the macro economic principles the wrong way around, it was not an attempt rather a result.
  • #171,449
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:27pm Dec 13, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting cloggie
No, you have the macro economic principles the wrong way around, it was not an attempt rather a result.
So it is a result of their actions. Whether or not this was their intentions is a different discussion.

The highs versus the dollar in April will also coincide with the low point in the general presented state of the US economy.

BTW, I'm not trying to be argumentative. It just seems like we're are saying the same thing, so I'm a bit confused.
  • #171,450
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:34pm Dec 13, 2009 12:34pm
The latest gossip is that Nakheel is going to default on their sukuk tomorrow, adding futher exposure to EU banks. Their next biggest sukuk is due in Jan.
  • #171,451
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:41pm Dec 13, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
I have very useful link for you http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/correlation-table

I used to trade correlated pairs. Check 1H and Daily also, make sure

both TF's are correlated. I'm also looking into it right now

I just checked and closest correlated pair for EURUSD is AUDUSD

on 70 check points:

1H correlation:...
thanks very much
  • #171,452
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:50pm Dec 13, 2009 12:50pm
Quoting cloggie
Agree we had 5981 in April 08
It's going lower than that, next year.

The only question between those currencies is: "Who's going to DEFAULT first?"

My bet is: JAPAN. "Safe heaven currency" What a joke, approaching 200% DEBT to GDP ratio,

those guys would never rise rates until they DEFAULT.

If you think that reckless worldwide DEBT growth, could continue too long,

think again. They all have to reset their balances sooner or later, cause it's a Pyramid schema

and output is already known. By keeping interest low and inflating, - they can survive little bit longer.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #171,453
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:50pm Dec 13, 2009 12:50pm
Quoting tenaciousj
So it is a result of their actions. Whether or not this was their intentions is a different discussion.

The highs versus the dollar in April will also coincide with the low point in the general presented state of the US economy.

BTW, I'm not trying to be argumentative. It just seems like we're are saying the same thing, so I'm a bit confused.
A lot of people just getting into forex have seen the last years movements as the dollar being week, and the last couple of weeks seemed to be a strengthening. The facts are, the dollar has been week for the last 8 years. Way before the market turmoil. 13 years ago, the dollar was strong. This little bit of positive dollar movement is just a drop in the bucket. Look at your monthly chart, see where the dollar has been in 10 years time, then see for yourself the difference between weak and strong!

Oh and one more thing. Until we start raising interest rates, the dollar will remain week. strong would be 900, Not 1.4400
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #171,454
  • Dec 13, 2009 12:59pm Dec 13, 2009 12:59pm
Quoting tonyo524
A lot of people just getting into forex have seen the last years movements as the dollar being week, and the last couple of weeks seemed to be a strengthening. The facts are, the dollar has been week for the last 8 years. Way before the market turmoil. 13 years ago, the dollar was strong. This little bit of positive dollar movement is just a drop in the bucket. Look at your monthly chart, see where the dollar has been in 10 years time, then see for yourself the difference between weak and strong!

Oh and one more thing. Until we start raising interest...
go to a bigger tf and look who was in the big house since gold standard removed and when usd is at its strongest.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #171,455
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:01pm Dec 13, 2009 1:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
go to a bigger tf and look who was in the big house since gold standard removed and when usd is at its strongest.
But I didn't want to raise that topic and turn this into an Obama bashing thread!
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #171,456
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:02pm Dec 13, 2009 1:02pm
Namaste

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  • #171,457
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:04pm Dec 13, 2009 1:04pm
Quoting tonyo524
But I didn't want to raise that topic and turn this into an Obama bashing thread!
thats the myth... when a demo is in office usd has been the strongest. check out late 2007 when dow was 14k.. where was the usd then? use the usdx..fact not opinion..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #171,458
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:04pm Dec 13, 2009 1:04pm
Well I think I see where some of the confusion is. I am speaking of more recent events. But I do see what you are saying long term perspective.

Sorry I should have elaborated more.
  • #171,459
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:05pm Dec 13, 2009 1:05pm
Quoting rattyo
A question on MA's

I was taught only 20ema and 50sma
which I use on my charts for all timeframes.
I look for crosses and 50sma for trend etc.

What baffles me is I notice others using all sorts
of different MA's 14 , 21, 100, 200, 62, etc..

Am I neglecting something here.
Nope. It is a way of seeing the things. I am using the 200 ema. It works for me. I also noticed on some systems that sometimes 62 ma can be a strong dinamic resistance. It depends on how you are trading and your system. Do not worry that you are not using what ema the others are using. At the end end of the day if you make positive pips this is what matters.
If you're not part of the solution then you're part of the problem.
  • #171,460
  • Dec 13, 2009 1:06pm Dec 13, 2009 1:06pm
Quoting tenaciousj
Well I think I see where some of the confusion is. I am speaking of more recent events. But I do see what you are saying long term perspective.

Sorry I should have elaborated more.

Welcome to our little thread we like to confuse the bejezuz out of you especially on the weekends as we have nothing better to do until the markets open then to pull every post apart.
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