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  • #171,421
  • Edited 7:44am Dec 13, 2009 7:07am | Edited 7:44am
I'd definitely watch AUDUSD/NZDUSD

So far I don't see any drops in those pairs, which tells me

Carry trade still a live. Even same, low interest, Canadian Dollar

doesn't drop much either USDCAD.

I'll watch those 2 pairs (AUDUSD/NZDUSD) in particular. NO drop will confirm

TEMP drop in EURUSD

AS after FOMC (Tuesday 2:15 EST) people will return to biz as usual.

Sell the Dollar to buy high yielding currencies..

And don't forget that LOW dollar is the FEDS best interest.

Inflation, Low interest rates, weak currency, all of those factors

will keep them alive longer under big pile of Debt.

That's the plan.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #171,422
  • Dec 13, 2009 8:14am Dec 13, 2009 8:14am
i was wondering how some of you guys go about hedging your trades?? what correlations do you look for between stock markets, other currencies and commodities? i think this is definitely something that i can use to incorporate into my trading analysis and....

hopefully someone can help me out http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif

cheers
  • #171,423
  • Dec 13, 2009 8:34am Dec 13, 2009 8:34am
I think the easiest correlation to spot is the USD vs the US Stock Market. When the stock market is up the dollar is generally slipping. Meaning stronger stock market = weaker dollar and vice versa.

Also, Canadian Dollar vs USD using the price of OIL. Higher the price of oil means stronger Canadian dollar. That I believe is because Canada is USA 2nd largest OIL partner.

I recommending trading what you see instead of trying to put in a bunch of variables that can make your freeze when you see a reliable technical setup.
  • #171,424
  • Dec 13, 2009 9:26am Dec 13, 2009 9:26am
Upward alternative
Euro / Usd Daily chart
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  • #171,425
  • Edited 10:09am Dec 13, 2009 9:29am | Edited 10:09am
Quoting fxcatty
I think the easiest correlation to spot is the USD vs the US Stock Market. When the stock market is up the dollar is generally slipping. Meaning stronger stock market = weaker dollar and vice versa.

Also, Canadian Dollar vs USD using the price of OIL. Higher the price of oil means stronger Canadian dollar. That I believe is because Canada is USA 2nd largest OIL partner.

I recommending trading what you see instead of trying to put in a bunch of variables that can make your freeze when you see a reliable technical setup.
i will start when oil drops 10 20 (55/65 range then evaluate) or more and looks profitable . just curious... how high did oil get? was it 82? then as eu went up so did market.. but last few days/week oil down usd up and market up...oil is in every fiber of the economy. when these 3 line up together (oil, eu and stock markets in same direction) you can get 1.6 or more.. its not in the stars right now. economys are too soft. moves have to be gradual to avoid market shock.. oil today is still 3 times more then it was 9 years ago. it will take years to calm the water in this ocean. all recessions in the last 40 years were caused by brief spikes in oil mostly less then a year much less.(i said spikes not gradual rise)..we just had an 8 year spike... we have never been here before.. we still got 100pb plus oil in system to be paid for. in this never ending cycle. we send the ones who dont like us much billions of dollars. in return they fund other crazies to fly planes. in return we take more of your cash to protect sand.. in return oil goes up...i hope at least a dim lightbulb goes off in your head. the never ending cycle. let em drink thier oil and eat their sand.. when you add all the true cost is we can make our own cheaper. i wonder what would happen to banks invested there then. if you think im the only one that knews this your wrong. step back have an open mind. follow the money.. the string pullers have you pegged.
happy pippin
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #171,426
  • Dec 13, 2009 9:37am Dec 13, 2009 9:37am
Hmm according to the daily charts the E/U has moved out by quite abit from the trendlines and hmm...cld it be making a premature reversal? I dono..anyone has any valued opinions?
  • #171,427
  • Dec 13, 2009 9:45am Dec 13, 2009 9:45am
Quoting hedayat
Hmm according to the daily charts the E/U has moved out by quite abit from the trendlines and hmm...cld it be making a premature reversal? I dono..anyone has any valued opinions?
i think if you read back the last 15 pages or so you will get a pretty good feel!

bear in mind people's opinions are based on their various timeframes that they are trading, so where one guy says he is long and the other says he is shorting... one might be a lower timeframe trader looking to take another 100 pips whereas the long trader might be willing to risk another 100 pip drop to receive the 500 pip windfall if it heads north again...
  • #171,428
  • Dec 13, 2009 9:50am Dec 13, 2009 9:50am
Quoting gatorinla
i will start when oil drops 10 20 or more.. just curious... how high did oil get? was it 82?
happy pippin
Why would OIL drop? Demand start picking up, when it's turn up

even more next year,

world would be short on OIL about 1 million barrel per day

$70-$80 then over $100 next year. I think you listen too much CNBC.

Those clowns where saying: "I wouldn't touch gold with the 10 feet pool stick",

when Gold was near $800/oz, and also bragging about $20/b OIL, when it

almost double in price. OIL -my 6-7 month price target over $100/b.

We'll see who is right by July 4 next year.
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #171,429
  • Edited 10:10am Dec 13, 2009 9:59am | Edited 10:10am
Quoting jp09
i was wondering how some of you guys go about hedging your trades?? what correlations do you look for between stock markets, other currencies and commodities? i think this is definitely something that i can use to incorporate into my trading analysis and....
hopefully someone can help me out http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif
cheers
I have very useful link for you http://www.mataf.net/en/tools/correlation-table

I used to trade correlated pairs. Check 1H and Daily also, make sure

both TF's are correlated. I'm also looking into it right now

I just checked and closest correlated pair for EURUSD is AUDUSD

on 70 check points:

1H correlation: 91.7
Daily correlation: 84.8

Cannot do better than that

If EU continues to drop I'd SELL AUDUSD to offset paper loses.

Ohh 1 more Sorry Looks like USDCHF even better

1H correlation is - 99.7
Daily correlation -98.7

So you can also BUY USDCHF to hedge falling EURUSD
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #171,430
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:02am Dec 13, 2009 10:02am
Quoting SkyzerFX
I'd definitely watch AUDUSD/NZDUSD

So far I don't see any drops in those pairs, which tells me

Carry trade still a live. Even same, low interest, Canadian Dollar

doesn't drop much either USDCAD.

I'll watch those 2 pairs (AUDUSD/NZDUSD) in particular. NO drop will confirm

TEMP drop in EURUSD

AS after FOMC (Tuesday 2:15 EST) people will return to biz as usual.

Sell the Dollar to buy high yielding currencies..

And don't forget that LOW dollar is the FEDS best interest.

Inflation, Low interest rates, weak currency, all of those factors...
i do watch them they said this was comming 6 weeks ago..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #171,431
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:31am Dec 13, 2009 10:31am
Quoting hedayat
Hmm according to the daily charts the E/U has moved out by quite abit from the trendlines and hmm...cld it be making a premature reversal? I dono..anyone has any valued opinions?
I think we should be headed bullish from here , news pushed the pricee down but it cant hold it down
  • #171,432
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:32am Dec 13, 2009 10:32am
Quoting DavidValera
lmao i see the bears fighting for there lifes tonight .. my target is 4840 myself
good luck
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #171,433
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:34am Dec 13, 2009 10:34am
Quoting gatorinla
good luck
lmaooo thats of course if the news was bad .. i madee myself a quite large amount of money friday
  • #171,434
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:36am Dec 13, 2009 10:36am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Why would OIL drop? Demand start picking up, when it's turn up

even more next year,

world would be short on OIL about 1 million barrel per day

$70-$80 then over $100 next year. I think you listen too much CNBC.

Those clowns where saying: "I wouldn't touch gold with the 10 feet pool stick",

when Gold was near $800/oz, and also bragging about $20/b OIL, when it

almost double in price. OIL -my 6-7 month price target over $100/b.

We'll see who is right by July 4 next year.
why did it drop from 147? why did it drop from 82? if im wrong my sl will get hit if not i will bail before. i certainly will not hedge because i was wrong.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #171,435
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:39am Dec 13, 2009 10:39am
Quoting DavidValera
lmaooo thats of course if the news was bad .. i madee myself a quite large amount of money friday
yes but the comment may have made someone blindly follow you..i was pointing out they should take it with a grain of salt..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #171,436
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:42am Dec 13, 2009 10:42am
Quoting gatorinla
yes but the comment may have made someone blindly follow you..i was pointing out they should take it with a grain of salt..
ohhh.. yeah veryy truee , we all use diffrent timeframes i meant in the longterm view but they might see it as a short term idea gotchaa boss
  • #171,437
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:45am Dec 13, 2009 10:45am
EUR/USD will plunge further!
  • #171,438
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:46am Dec 13, 2009 10:46am
Quoting DavidValera
ohhh.. yeah veryy truee , we all use diffrent timeframes i meant in the longterm view but they might see it as a short term idea gotchaa boss
got a chart or something to convince me your right about long term view?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #171,439
  • Dec 13, 2009 10:49am Dec 13, 2009 10:49am
Quoting gatorinla
got a chart or something to convince me your right about long term view?
lol not really its just my personally opinion , i believe the usd is fundamentally weak atm
  • #171,440
  • Dec 13, 2009 11:01am Dec 13, 2009 11:01am
Quoting DavidValera
lol not really its just my personally opinion , i believe the usd is fundamentally weak atm
i have read and heard that in a few places..it gets a lot of press. when hearding its always best to have a lead animal. like an old cow trained to lead the other cattle in the stock yard for slaughter. but at the end the lead cow is let live to do job over and over. on cattle drives some of these lead animals were so valuble. that some rode back to texas ect. in a wagon. even the nazis used the lead cattle model at camps..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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