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  • #171,361
  • Dec 12, 2009 7:25am Dec 12, 2009 7:25am
Hello. Do not know where to get it. Anybody know?

Greetings
  • #171,362
  • Edited 7:42am Dec 12, 2009 7:29am | Edited 7:42am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Time is money in terms of what can be LOSS in particular minute, will probably going to be profit

1 hour or 5 hours later.. Money Management is the KEY, period.. I don't need no STOP LOSS.

I'm doing some trades with different setups on Test account and always

run into problem, that I have to SL, never did, since this is TEST, just buy or sell

more and always win. On Real account never use Stop Loss.

Unless some extreme situations like 2008 Market crash, Forex moving in

waves. What comes up must come down. Look last JPY extreme move

couple...
2 years back similiar situation i was in remember, august when everything fell against the dollar..i was in exactly same position u are in now...i was buying a dip...."its a uptrend cable is flying up, US ecomony was on the ropes, oil was out of control"...price fell i kept adding longs in a bear market...in the end i add to it a hedge because the retrace didnt happen..they are plenty of people in yur boat, the market will take the money it can from the people that have the most to lose, thats the logic in forex one needs to remember...zero sum game and 90% need to lose

i learned from that day u need a stop loss....u just havent exerienced that moment yet that is why u believe mental stop is just as good...i will i too was a mental stop person, but what i experienced that day showed me that when price was falling, i was stunned, imbolised, i couldnt react to the moment, like i was in disbelieve...yur on the same very road...just be cautious and make sure yur not in this place where u see what u want to see..

this situation with dollar is very similiar...dont look at the logic because if i learned anything trading and logic dont go hand in hand.

be carefull bro..this bi*ch is about to get ugly


Quoting X.Oden
Isn't it ironic how a couple months ago the doomsayers in the form of news analysts were saying the end of the dollar would be near and that countries would unpeg themselves from it and that it would be replaced, now the dollar is gaining strength and momentum...

Just goes to show you, the news analysts are bullshitters....good ol technicals....
ecomonics 1 on 1


rule one...when something is doomed buy it!!!!!
and we talking about reverse currency of the world here
  • #171,363
  • Dec 12, 2009 8:36am Dec 12, 2009 8:36am
Quoting kingfisher
I agree but retail figures were better then expected in oct and nov as well...no kind of crazy movement like this happened in oct and nov.

The data is attached.
King is more than this indicators, is the problem some countries at Europe are having right now, for example Greece, also sum the Dubai thing, the China and US signs of recovery, and that a lot of big traders are on vacations, a lot of factors right now is affecting this pair more than other pairs. The correlation with S&P500 seems to be broken, a lot of $heets are happening right now,

My recommendations to ppl is to be flat right now, or shorting this pair, but not from where it is right now, wait for a good range to be sure you will profit, use as support the 1.4626 and wait for a resistance confirmation before opening your position, keep an eye open on Monday to see if this dip continues, probably yes or could be a bullish day before the continuation of this dip.

I was reviewing a lot of ppl analysis Fundamentals and technicals, and you will find people thinks this is the end of the dip, others that it will continue, when you find the market so mixed is better to watch the first day of the week and see what it has to offer. I haven't made my own analysis yet will do it tomorrow, but I will watch Monday's sentiment as well and see the Calendar to see what news this week can affect this pair the most.

I wish you a good trading week to all.
  • #171,364
  • Dec 12, 2009 9:16am Dec 12, 2009 9:16am
Quoting Driver55
Here I am

I hope everyone that lost a lot on Friday consider posts like this. I kinda think maybe these posts influence new traders on here, who are looking for guidance. I've read a few long time members here post their long views on Friday, (with no charts etc) and poked fun at everyone who was short.

Remember, it's your account, if you don't see the same call as some, don't trade it!!!
Also consider, do you trade short term? (most on here do) maybe these calls were long term based on daily or monthly charts. (they didn't clarify)

My advice to you (from someone who made the same mistakes until I came into my own) Spend more time in the threads for new traders, learn how to read your own charts etc.
  • #171,365
  • Edited 10:27pm Dec 12, 2009 9:59am | Edited 10:27pm
gatorinla I found one ea that works with lines set , buy line, sell line & for both cases close /trailing stop lines . Not use so far ,just download from one forum & if you find interest can thank author & send pm for the link.shift the lines where desire.
thanks
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 SendCloseOrder.mq4   6 KB | 385 downloads
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #171,366
  • Edited 10:16am Dec 12, 2009 10:04am | Edited 10:16am
In a more detailed view of 64 Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), with the 200 period EMA being the base, the Four Hour Chart (H4) is almost 100 points lower since Dec 10, 2009. More than half of all of the EMAs are below the Four Hour 200 period EMA baseline.

Is the bull market for the Euro over? It depends on your point of view. The Daily Charts (D1) display the same Price Action over a longer time frame, dating back to December 2008, and further to December 2007. The current deep retracement is to the 118th Daily Exponential Moving Average.

There are past instances where the price has retraced this deep and bounced back. Our 14 period Daily "Average True Range" (ATR), from High to Low, is currently at 135 points. For traders, the question is "Which way?"
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd four hour since october 2009.gif Size: 53 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd daily since december 2008.gif Size: 39 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd daily since december 2007.gif Size: 78 KB
  • #171,367
  • Dec 12, 2009 10:21am Dec 12, 2009 10:21am
i think like a lot of people on here i have learnt a lot from the last week. i stood aside for most of the news and scalped about 30 pips in the end, nothing in comparison to the profits i could have made if i had risked it, but i think a lot of people (me included) did expect it to go up not down...

i was wondering how some of you guys go about hedging your trades?? what correlations do you look for between stock markets, other currencies and commodities? i think this is definitely something that i can use to incorporate into my trading analysis and....

hopefully someone can help me out

cheers
  • #171,368
  • Dec 12, 2009 10:22am Dec 12, 2009 10:22am
Quoting nAVIN2007
2 years back similiar situation i was in remember,...

Hmm, who told you that I'm trading based on nothing??? I'll show you that

Price extreme jumps always return to the medium in my case 200 MA on 4H TF

Here is the wild jump in March on EURUSD.. This is like worse case scenario.. I don't expect anything like this because we in the much more calm waters right now.. Yes I'm buying with very small

mini lots (0.20,0.30,0.40 and so on). According to my theory, EURUSD can

drop another 200 pips at most and will run to the surface of 200 MA

Place 200 MA on your chart on 4H and create Levels 200,400,-200,-400

and tell me what you see.. So, yes I will try to close it in profit or decide to dump it as

I'm up on EURJPY and CHFJPY and currently because of EU in total I'm down about $160


Sorry, on the PIC there you should read SELL instead of Buy.





Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-march-jump.jpg Size: 127 KB
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  • #171,369
  • Dec 12, 2009 10:34am Dec 12, 2009 10:34am
Quoting surya2k
Worst trading day in my life. Since it fallen from 1.508 I was holding 2 positions and then was keep buying at 1.48 level, then 1.477 level but all my hope wiped out today after it fall below 1.460 level, which is extremely dangerious to hold long positions. And, finally closed all my long positions with 8000$ loss and it wiped out all my profits which I had earned in last 45 days.

Now, I am not sure where it is heading towards.
Sorry to hear this, is demo or real?
  • #171,370
  • Dec 12, 2009 10:37am Dec 12, 2009 10:37am
Quoting SkyzerFX
Hmm, who told you that I'm trading based on nothing??? I'll show you that

[left]Price extreme jumps always return to the medium...
where did i mention yur trading based on nothing..i simply warming u to objective and dont get carried away in a belief that this must go up....it might go up...who the hell knows

the question is what are u willing to risk to see if yur right!!

what i see is this: in my chart..very simply, we are in the middle of a channel falling..not the place to be going long in my view as PA simply doesnt support it...but what do i know

nice to see yur in profit overall
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade2.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #171,371
  • Dec 12, 2009 10:49am Dec 12, 2009 10:49am
Quoting nAVIN2007
the question is what are u willing to risk to see if yur right!!
My real concern is the end of the YEAR Big boys are improving

their books and taking off the table most questionable and risky

trades. Euro could drop further. I'm willing to see till Tuesday

after FOMC meeting. Cause even few "wrong" words from FEDS can

spike up huge rally out of nowhere.. Sure it's uncomfortable here at

1.46, I'd feel much safer over 1.47.. Good luck to you too

We'll see how it goes..
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  • #171,372
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:04am Dec 12, 2009 11:04am
Quoting kimd
I hope everyone that lost a lot on Friday consider posts like this. I kinda think maybe these posts influence new traders on here, who are looking for guidance. I've read a few long time members here post their long views on Friday, (with no charts etc) and poked fun at everyone who was short.

Remember, it's your account, if you don't see the same call as some, don't trade it!!!
Also consider, do you trade short term? (most on here do) maybe these calls were long term based on daily or monthly charts. (they didn't clarify)

My advice to you...
Yes, most (not all) long time members here at FF swing trade with daily or weekly charts, using 4hr and 1hr to fine tune for order entry. Yes, many swing traders are long. If you are a swing trader, this is a gift horse buying opportunity with a huge positive risk-to-reward ratio. It may well do you some good to consider why most of the older traders trade higher timeframes and why most newer traders spend all their time trying to guess what the next 50 or 100 pips will bring. You seem to disagree with Driver55's comment that he was still long. Well, so am I. But I am not trying to convince anyone that I am right. I may well be wrong. But what I do try to present is a solid trading plan with sound MM based on Daily/Weekly charts. I present this to try to help newer traders learn to swing trade. I do this to help others as I was helped. I wish you all the best in your trades.......

Regards
  • #171,373
  • Edited 11:16am Dec 12, 2009 11:06am | Edited 11:16am
Quote
Hmm, who told you that I'm trading based on nothing??? I'll show you that


[left]Price extreme jumps always return to the medium in my case 200 MA on 4H TF

Here is the wild jump in March on EURUSD.. This is like worse case scenario.. I don't expect anything like this because we in the much more calm waters right now.. Yes I'm buying with very small

mini lots (0.20,0.30,0.40 and so on). According to my theory, EURUSD can

drop another 200 pips at most and will run to the surface of 200 MA

Place 200 MA on your chart on 4H and create Levels...

Your views and my views are similar.

This is what happened from dec 15 2008- dec 19 2008 when FED annouced that it will be printing dollars:

12/15/2008 1.33870

12/16/2008 1.35020

12/17/2008 1.37220

12/18/2008 1.4139012

12/19/2008 1.44390

1100 pips movement in one direction in 5 days !!!

Now cooling off:

12/20/2008 1.41210

12/21/2008 1.39170

12/22/2008 1.39180

12/23/20081.39830

12/24/2008 1.39760

12/25/2008 1.39730

12/26/2008 1.40160

12/27/2008 1.40520

12/28/2008 1.40370

12/29/2008 1.40370

12/30/2008 1.4190

12/31/2008 1.40970


This is what happened in jan 2009 when trading volumes started to increase. It is back to senses.

01/02/2009 1.39780

01/03/2009 1.39250

01/04/2009 1.39250

01/05/2009 1.39230

01/06/2009 1.37560

01/07/2009 1.34970

01/08/2009 1.35790

01/09/2009 1.36420

01/10/2009 1.36230

01/11/2009 1.3480

01/12/2009 1.3480

01/13/2009 1.34010

01/14/2009 1.32770

01/15/2009 1.32130

01/16/2009 1.31530

01/17/2009 1.32310

01/18/2009 1.32730

01/19/2009 1.3280

01/20/2009 1.32620

01/21/2009 1.2980

01/22/2009 1.29180

My point is if $ bears are stuck in their position at 1.48/1.49/1.50/1.51 levels, wait for a retracement and then decide whether you want to exit at break even or a new action plan.

I do believe we will see 1.44 by tuesday as the positive data is leading US $ bullishness.

But i expect US $ bearishness after FOMC meeting.
  • #171,374
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:27am Dec 12, 2009 11:27am
Quoting SkyzerFX
My real concern is the end of the YEAR Big boys are improving

their books and taking off the table most questionable and risky

trades. Euro could drop further. I'm willing to see till Tuesday

after FOMC meeting. Cause even few "wrong" words from FEDS can

spike up huge rally out of nowhere.. Sure it's uncomfortable here at

1.46, I'd feel much safer over 1.47.. Good luck to you too

We'll see how it goes..
yup i agree...hope it works out for u
  • #171,375
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:34am Dec 12, 2009 11:34am
Euro and Usdx Daily chart.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdx1d.png Size: 14 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euru1d.png Size: 12 KB
  • #171,376
  • Dec 12, 2009 12:37pm Dec 12, 2009 12:37pm
could someone tell me where to get the usdx chart on mt4?
i cant see it :
  • #171,377
  • Dec 12, 2009 12:45pm Dec 12, 2009 12:45pm
Given the steep angle of the recent downward move, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see it significantly retrace. I haven't seen the EMAs roll over on the 4H like this since April.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chart1.jpg Size: 123 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chart2.jpg Size: 130 KB
  • #171,378
  • Dec 12, 2009 1:24pm Dec 12, 2009 1:24pm
well i think it's obvious we'll see a retrace.()
the question is...
how big?

and the other question is,i'm a noob so please bear with me:will 1.47100 become a resistance for the retrace?
or will it go as far as 1.4925?
if the price get above 1.4925 could that still be considered a retrace or would this week's drop become a dip?well i think the real level for that would be near 1.511xx but if the price goes above 1.49 could that mean a sideway trend?

i'm really confused.
not that it is a bad thing though ....as long as i'm not in it all this uncertainty is funny!
  • #171,379
  • Dec 12, 2009 1:38pm Dec 12, 2009 1:38pm
could someone tell me where to get the usdx chart on mt4?
i cant see it : Dec 12, 2009 22:34 (2 hr 1 min ago) "could someone tell me where to get the usdx chart on mt4?
i cant see it : "



_DXYhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
  • #171,380
  • Dec 12, 2009 1:39pm Dec 12, 2009 1:39pm
Quoting kiadanai
could someone tell me where to get the usdx chart on mt4? i cant see it :
Yeah, I'm curious too.. +1
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