50% chance of making money?

Well price will either go up or down..so can we say probability of making money is 50%?

I have come to a conclusion- It is very difficult to make a living out of trading but making money (few pips) out of trading is relatively easier then making a living.

So for living, we need a full time stable job with good career prospect and side by side one can make (or try to make) few pips trading 4 H or 1 day charts.

No the probability is not 50:50.

Trading for a living isn't hard. You only need two things.
Either 1. Low standard of living or 2. Enough Capital.
and in both cases 3. consistency.

As Tjpld said, no it's not 50%. It would be 50% if price moved randomly and we had no operating expenses, but it's not random and we do have operating expenses. In the real world, it could be 40%, it could be 60%, and it may very depending on distance. If you're asking this thinking that you can just use a risk-to-reward ratio of greater than 1:1 and profit, it won't work.


Pips aren't relevant. Yes, making money is going to be easier than making a living, because making money just requires a positive result, while making a living requires a significant positive result. It may or may not be difficult - it will depend who you ask. Most people aren't able to make a living though, so from that perspective it seems difficult.


We don't (there's no room for generalising here), but an individual might. But then that individual may be good enough to make a living, or lack the skill to make any money at all.