Fair Chance - Slim Chance

Dear FX-Trader-Community!
-Life Trading-
(1 pip = 10.-$)


Little or no chance of success might be in favor of 95% of all traders.
So it seems a difference as opposed to a more elaborate design which could dole out more dips.
Do more qualified probability theories deliver the fact of this difference?

What seems to be some facts of a successfull trade? Do executing these trades as bold as brass?

Everyone who could give an/some argument/s for a reasonable probability of success with his trading style (concept) or expectation are invited to give a comment or a trading tip.

You could attend this trading mass if you like it - if not keep moving!

Disclaimer:
Any trade or analysis related comments made in this thread by myself or any other person should not be interpreted as anything other than a point of view by the respective poster. Trading rules may be subject to interpretation. It is your responsibility as a trader to decide what information to use and what to disregard and you do so at your own risk. Use the ideas and/or modify them to suit your trading style. I recommend testing your trading system on demo account before investing real money.

Planned risk levels may be increased dramatically under extreme market conditions.

Kindest regards

FXcube


Anmerkung
Wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretisch geht es in diesem thread um die Modellierung eines Kurs-Charts durch einen Wahrscheinlichkeitsraum. Die Menge der möglichen Ergebnisse wären beispielsweise die Summe aller Kerzen (candlesticks) in einem definierten Beobachtungszeitraum. Hierbei wird jedoch von der Annahme ausgegangen, dass nicht alle Teilmengen der Menge der möglichen Ergebnisse ihren Wahrscheinlichkeiten proportional zu ihrem Anteil an der Gesamtfläche zugeordnet werden darf, was in der Praxis des täglichen Handelns eine unterschiedliche Risiko- und Investmentbereitschaft impliziert (zur Folge hat).

Life-Trading
Das wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretische Konzept wird im Life-Trading (1 pip = 10.-$) umgesetzt und vereinzelt detailliert veranschaulicht und je nach Zeitaufwand, Lust und Laune des Threadstarters hier und da explizit erläutert.
Möglicherweise könnte hieraus eines Tages ein Skript über "wahrscheinlichkeitstheoretisch basiertes Devisentrading" entstehen "und deren Implikationen und Abwandlungen auf das reale Forexhandeln".

Mit besten Wünschen

FXcube

_____
Label:
LOM = Loss Order Management, MTFA = Multiple Time Frame Analysis, PO = Pending Order, SL = Stop Loss, TP = Take Profit, TS = Trailing Stop

joint probability - the probability of two events occurring together.

likelihood, likeliness - the probability of a specified outcome.

conditional probability, contingent probability - the probability that an event will occur given that one or more other events have occurred.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/probability


Thesaurus Legend: Synonyms Related Words Antonyms
Noun
1.
probability - a measure of how likely it is that some event will occur; a number expressing the ratio of favorable cases to the whole number of cases possible; "the probability that an unbiased coin will fall with the head up is 0.5"chance
quantity, measure, amount - how much there is or how many there are of something that you can quantify
conditional probability, contingent probability - the probability that an event will occur given that one or more other events have occurred
cross section - (physics) the probability that a particular interaction (as capture or ionization) will take place between particles; measured in barns
exceedance - (geology) the probability that an earthquake will generate a level of ground motion that exceeds a specified reference level during a given exposure time; "the concept of exceedance can be applied to any type of environmental risk modeling"
fair chance, sporting chance - a reasonable probability of success
fat chance, slim chance - little or no chance of success
joint probability - the probability of two events occurring together
risk of exposure, risk - the probability of being exposed to an infectious agent
risk of infection, risk - the probability of becoming infected given that exposure to an infectious agent has occurred

2.
probability - the quality of being probable; a probable event or the most probable event; "for a while mutiny seemed a probability"; "going by past experience there was a high probability that the visitors were lost"quality - an essential and distinguishing attribute of something or someone; "the quality of mercy is not strained"--Shakespeare
likelihood, likeliness - the probability of a specified outcome
improbability, improbableness - the quality of being improbable; "impossibility should never be confused with improbability"; "the improbability of such rare coincidences"

http://tradersoos.nl/page7/files/Hig...%20Trading.pdf

High Probability ETF Trading
7 Professional Strategies to improve your ETF Trading

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/probability

prob·a·bil·i·ty (prhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/obreve.gifbhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/lprime.gifhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/schwa.gif-bhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/ibreve.giflhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/prime.gifhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/ibreve.gif-thttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/emacr.gif)
n. pl. prob·a·bil·i·ties 1. The quality or condition of being probable; likelihood.
2. A probable situation, condition, or event: Her election is a clear probability.
3.
a. The likelihood that a given event will occur: little probability of rain tonight.
b. Statistics A number expressing the likelihood that a specific event will occur, expressed as the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the number of possible occurrences.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/probability

probability [ˌprɒbəˈbɪlɪtɪ]
n pl -ties
1. the condition of being probable
2. an event or other thing that is probable
3. (Mathematics & Measurements / Statistics) Statistics a measure or estimate of the degree of confidence one may have in the occurrence of an event, measured on a scale from zero (impossibility) to one (certainty). It may be defined as the proportion of favourable outcomes to the total number of possibilities if these are indifferent (mathematical probability), or the proportion observed in a sample (empirical probability), or the limit of this as the sample size tends to infinity (relative frequency), or by more subjective criteria (subjective probability)

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/probability

prob•a•bil•i•ty (ˌprɒb əˈbɪl ɪ ti)

n., pl. -ties.
1. the quality or fact of being probable.
2. a probable event, circumstance, etc.
3. Statistics. a. the relative possibility that an event will occur, as expressed by the ratio of the number of actual occurrences to the total number of possible occurrences.
b. the relative frequency with which an event occurs or is likely to occur.
Idioms: in all probability, very probably; quite likely.

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/probability

probability (prhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/obreve.gifbhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/lprime.gifhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/schwa.gif-bhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/ibreve.giflhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/prime.gifhttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/ibreve.gif-thttp://img.tfd.com/hm/GIF/emacr.gif)
A number expressing the likelihood of the occurrence of a given event, especially a fraction expressing how many times the event will happen in a given number of tests or experiments. For example, when rolling a six-sided die, the probability of rolling a particular side is 1 in 6, or 1/6 .

Has someone "the Midas touch", when producing with a 10'000.-$ Account 1'280'000.-$ after 7 years?

http://www.math.uiuc.edu/~r-ash/BPT.html
Basic Probability Theory
This text does not require measure theory, but underying measure-theoretic ideas are sketched.

Click below to read/download the entire book in one pdf file.
PDF files can be viewed with the free program Adobe Acrobat Reader.

1. Basic Probability Theory (78 MB)

Click below to read/download individual chapters.
Front Matter
Chapter 1 Basic Concepts
Chapter 2 Random Variables
Chapter 3 Expectation
Chapter 4 Conditional Probability and Expectation
Chapter 5 Characteristic Functions
Chapter 6 Infinite Sequences of Random Variables
Chapter 7 Markov Chains
Chapter 8 Introduction to Statistics
Tables and Bibliography
Solutions to Selected Problems
Index
Solutions to Problems Not Solved in the Text

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/

1. Home
2. Content
3. About
4. Press

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/im...es/galileo.png

The evolution of probability theory
In the seventeenth century Galileo wrote down some ideas about dice games. This led to discussions and papers which formed the earlier parts of probability theory. There were and have been a variety of contributors to probability theory since then but it is still a fairly poorly understood area of mathematics. Read the Full Story

Here are some of the popular Probability theory articles:http://www.probabilitytheory.info/images/blank.png Independent or mutually exclusive event?
You have to decide whether an event is mutually exclusive or independant.
Learn More

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/images/blank.png Converse (complementary) probabilities
Often when you work out the probability of an event, you sometimes do not need to work out the probability of an event occurring, in fact you need the opposite, the probability that the event will not occur.
Learn More

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/images/blank.png Periodic events
So far we have discussed probabilities in terms of outcomes either occurring or not occurring, but sometimes the gambler will wish to know the probability of an outcome occurring within a given time or during a given sequence of events.
Learn More

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/images/blank.png The law of large numbers / "The law of averages"
The theory of probability becomes of enhanced value to gamblers when it is used with the law of large numbers
Learn More

http://www.probabilitytheory.info/images/blank.png Monkeys typing the works of Shakespeare
It is frequently stated in books and articles on probability that if a succession of monkeys were set before a typewriter...
Learn More

View More Articles

http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/...Philosophy.htm

Chapter 13
Probability: Philosophy and Mathematical Background
Probability is the study of randomness. It has a mathematical aspect and a philosophical aspect. The mathematical aspect is described in Chapter 17, Probability: Axioms and Fundaments. The philosophical aspect, described in this chapter, connects the mathematical theory with the world—it says what "probability" means when we make statements like "the probability that a fair coin lands heads is 50%."

Theories of Probability



Random events
What does random mean? In ordinary speech, we use random to denote things that are unpredictable or not deliberate. For instance, we might speak of "a random person off the street," or quip that "Philip said the most random thing in lecture today!" In this course, we distinguish between random and haphazard. Events that are random are not perfectly predictable, but they have long-term regularities that we can describe and quantify using probability. In contrast, haphazard events do not necessarily have long-term regularities. Moreover, we limit the term probability to events for which we can specify all possible outcomes.
How a fair coin lands when it is tossed vigorously is a canonical example of a random event. One cannot predict perfectly whether the coin will land heads or tails; [+]

however, in repeated tosses, the fraction of times the coin lands heads will tend to settle down to a limit of 50%. The outcome of an individual toss is not perfectly predictable, but the long-run average behavior is predictable. Thus it is reasonable to consider the outcome of tossing a fair coin to be random.
What does it mean to say that a fair coin toss has a 50% chance of landing heads? There are several standard answers, called Theories of Probability.
Theories of Probability assign meaning to statements like "the probability that A occurs is p%." Theories of probability connect the mathematics of probability to the real world. As you might expect, bridging mathematics to reality is not so easy—the philosophical problems are deep, and it is hard to be consistent without being circular. We shall examine three theories of probability. The one I find most satisfactory is the Frequency Theory, although the others have their places too. In all three theories, probability is on a scale of 0% to 100%. "Probability" and "chance" are synonymous.

Equally Likely Outcomes



This theory of probability is the oldest. It originated in the study of games of chance, such as dice games and card games. In the Theory of Equally Likely Outcomes, probability assignments depend on the assertion that no particular outcome is preferred over any other by Nature; generally, arguments that Nature should show no preference among the outcomes appeal to the symmetry of the system studied (such as a "fair" coin or die).
If a given experiment or trial has n possible outcomes among which—it is assumed—Nature should show no preference, this theory defines them to be equally likely. The probability of each outcome is then 100%/n.
Applying this theory of probability involves arguing that no particular outcome should occur in preference to another, typically by appeal to physical symmetries or other considerations—e.g., that there is no reason one marble would be predisposed to turn up rather than another in drawing a marble from a well-stirred bowl of marbles. [+]
For example, if a coin is balanced well, there is no reason for it to land heads in preference to tails when it is tossed vigorously, so according to the Theory of Equally Likely Outcomes, the probability that the coin lands heads is equal to the probability that the coin lands tails, and both are 100%/2 = 50%. (This ignores the nearly impossible outcomes that the coin does not land at all or lands balanced on its edge.) Similarly, if a die is fair (properly balanced) the chance that when it is rolled vigorously it lands with the side with one spot on top (the chance that the die shows one spot) is the same as the chance that it shows two spots or three spots or four spots or five spots or six spots: 100%/6, about 16.7%.
If an event consists of more than one possible outcome, the chance of the event is the number of ways it can occur, divided by the total number of things that could occur. For example, the chance that a die lands showing an even number of spots is the number of ways it could land showing an even number of spots (3, namely, landing showing 2, 4, or 6 spots), divided by the total number of things that could occur (6, namely, landing showing 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 spots). Since the total number of possible outcomes is n, the maximum possible probability of any event is 100%×n/n = 100%. Thus, in the Theory of Equally Likely Outcomes, probabilities are between 0% and 100%, as claimed.

Frequency Theory



In the Frequency Theory of Probability, probability is the limit of the relative frequency with which an event occurs in repeated trials.[+]
Relative frequencies are always between 0% (the event essentially never happens) and 100% (the event essentially always happens), so in this theory as well, probabilities are between 0% and 100%. According to the Frequency Theory of Probability, what it means to say that "the probability that A occurs is p%" is that if you repeat the experiment over and over again, independently and under essentially identical conditions, the percentage of the time that A occurs will converge to p. For example, under the Frequency Theory, to say that the chance that a coin lands heads is 50% means that if you toss the coin over and over again, independently, the ratio of the number of times the coin lands heads to the total number of tosses approaches a limiting value of 50% as the number of tosses grows. Because the ratio of heads to tosses is always between 0% and 100%, when the probability exists it must be between 0% and 100%.

The Subjective Theory



In the Subjective Theory of Probability, probability measures the speaker's "degree of belief" that the event will occur, on a scale of 0% (complete disbelief that the event will happen) to 100% (certainty that the event will happen). According to the Subjective Theory, what it means for me to say that "the probability that A occurs is 2/3" is that I believe that A will happen twice as strongly as I believe that A will not happen. The Subjective Theory is particularly useful in assigning meaning to the probability of events that in principle can occur only once. For example, how might one assign meaning to a statement like "there is a 25% chance of an earthquake on the San Andreas fault with magnitude 8 or larger before 2050?" (See Freedman and Stark, 2003, for more discussion of theories of probability and their application to earthquakes.) It is very hard to use either the Theory of Equally Likely Outcomes or the Frequency Theory to make sense of the assertion. Can you think of other examples?
These three theories of probability assign different meanings to the statement "the chance that A occurs is p%." Each theory has situations in which it is most natural, and each theory has shortcomings. This book uses the Frequency Theory primarily.
Shortcomings of the Theories
While each of the theories has attractive elements, all have shortcomings as well. The shortcomings involve hidden assumptions, limited domains of applicability, and changes of subject.[+]
The Theory of Equally Likely Outcomes
Even when there are only a few possible outcomes, it is not always clear whether they should be deemed equally likely. For example, consider tossing two coins at the same time. The possible outcomes could be {two heads, not two heads} or {two heads, one head and one tail, two tails} or {two heads, head on coin 1 and tail on coin 2, tail on coin 1 and head on coin 2, two tails}.
The last of these assigns the same probabilities the Frequency Theory does. For instance, if the equally likely outcomes are taken to be {two heads, head on coin 1 and tail on coin 2, tail on coin 1 and head on coin 2, two tails}, both the Theory of Equally Likely Outcomes and the Frequency Theory would say that the chance of two heads is 25%. If one is using probability to bet on games of chance, long-term relative frequencies—which the Frequency Theory contemplates—are perhaps the most important consideration, because they determine how much one wins or loses in the long run. It seems rather artificial to introduce a distinction between two otherwise identical coins in order to make the probabilities calculated using the Theory of Equally Likely Outcomes agree with the probabilities calculated using the Frequency Theory. Perhaps a more serious limitation of the Theory of Equally Likely Outcomes is that many situations do not have natural symmetries to exploit to decide which outcomes are equally likely. For example, what is the chance that a thumbtack lands with its point up when it is tossed vigorously? What is the chance that a die that has been "loaded" (modified to be unbalanced) lands showing one spot? Neither of these problems has a natural symmetry from which to argue that the outcomes are equally likely. Moreover, in many situations there are an infinite number of possible outcomes; dividing 100% by infinity yields zero.
The Frequency Theory
The Frequency Theory requires an assumption about how the world works: The relative frequency with which an event occurs in repeated trials is assumed to converge to a limit. What is a limit? In the case of coin tossing, the theory says that for any positive number a, no matter how small, there is some number M, which can depend on a, such that
| (#heads in n tosses)/n − 50% | < a
whenever the number of tosses n > M. Not all sequences of heads and tails satisfy this assumption. For example, suppose the first toss gives a head. The relative frequency of heads is then 100%. Suppose the next 3 tosses give tails. The relative frequency of heads is then 25%. Suppose the next 100 tosses give heads. The relative frequency of heads is then over 97%. Suppose the next 5000 tosses give tails. The relative frequency of heads is then about 20%. If we continue in this way, with ever longer runs of heads and of tails, the relative frequency of heads never approaches a limit.
The Empirical Law of Averages says this never happens: The world works in such a way that the relative frequency with which a random event occurs in repeated trials always settles down to a limit. This "law" is an assumption about how the world works. It is not a mathematical fact, and it is not an observation because no one can continue tossing coins forever to see whether the relative frequency of heads starts to vary again after, say, 100,000,000,000,000 tosses. The Empirical Law of Averages is essential to the Frequency Theory.
The second limitation of the Frequency Theory is that many events to which we might like to assign probabilities are not the outcomes of repeatable experiments. For example, what is the probability that the universe will end in a "big crunch?" What is the probability that my 2015 tax return will be audited? What is the probability that in 2020 more online textbooks than paper textbooks will be sold? What is the probability that the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaches 20,000 before the year 2020? Can you think of other examples?
The Subjective Theory
The principal shortcoming of the Subjective Theory is that colloquially we think of probability as being a property of an event in the external (objective) world, not merely a reflection of our state of mind. When I say "this thumbtack has probability 66% of landing point up when I toss it," you probably think I am talking about the tack, not about my state of mind with respect to the tack: this theory changes the subject. Similarly, under the Subjective Theory, you and I can disagree about the probability of an event and both be correct, which seems unsatisfactory in many scientific settings.
There are a variety of technical difficulties in the Subjective Theory regarding how to measure the probability of an event. One possible resolution is to study the bets you are willing to take. Would you be indifferent between a bet that a coin lands heads and a bet with the same stakes that it lands tails? If so, some theorists would conclude that your subjective probability that the coin lands heads is 50%. Some factors can complicate this approach. For example, even though you know that buying a lottery ticket is almost certainly throwing your money away, you might buy a ticket anyway, reasoning that you would not particularly miss the $1 cost of the ticket, while you would definitely notice winning $20,000,000. In this scenario, the probability of winning is less of an issue than the possibility of winning.
Here is another example: I will bet you $1,000,000 against $500 that there will not be a nuclear bomb dropped on Berkeley, California, by the year 2020. Even if I am confident that a nuclear bomb will be dropped, if it is dropped, I won't have to pay off the lost bet (I live in Berkeley), but if it is not dropped, I could use the $500 you would owe me.
Another problem with the Subjective Theory has to do with scientific method. Some philosophers of science maintain that unless an hypothesis can, in principle, be shown to be false, it is not scientific. An hypothesis that in principle can be disproved is called falsifiable. In the Frequency Theory, one can collect evidence against the statement that "the probability that A occurs is p%" by repeating an experiment over and over and looking at the fraction of times the event A occurs. In the Subjective Theory, evidence against the hypothesis that "the probability that A occurs is p%" is found by psychological testing to see whether the individual making the statement is telling the truth and is internally consistent in his assignments of probability. Running the real-world experiment over would not be relevant.

http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/~stark/...hilosophy.htm#

Example 13-1: Probability of winning the Lotto Jackpot.
(Reminder: Examples and exercises may vary when the page is reloaded; the video shows only one version.)



In Lotto, you pick six numbers between 1 and 53; 6 numbers are drawn "at random" in such a way that every set of 6 distinct numbers between 1 and 53 is equally likely. To win the jackpot, all 6 of the numbers drawn must match the numbers you picked. The total number of combinations of 53 numbers taken 6 at a time is \({}_{53}C_6 = 22,957,480\). Only one of those combinations matches your exactly, so the chance of winning the jackpot is \(1/(22,957,480) = 0.0000044\%\).
There is a payoff of $5 if you match 3 of the 6 numbers. To match 3, the draw has to result in 3 of your 6 numbers, and in 3 of the 47 numbers you did not pick. You can think of this as a sequence of two experiments: drawing 3 numbers from among your 6 (which can result in \({}_6C_3 = 20\) possible outcomes), and drawing 3 numbers from the 47 remaining numbers that are not among your six (which can result in \({}_{47}C_3 = 16,215\) possible outcomes). Because the number of possibilities in the second experiment does not depend on what happened in the first, we can apply the fundamental rule of counting to conclude that the total number of ways of drawing 3 of the 6 numbers you picked, and 3 of the 47 you did not pick, is 6C3×47C3. The chance that the numbers drawn will match exactly 3 of your 6 numbers is therefore
6C3×47C3/53C6 = 20×16,215/22,957,480 = 1.41%.

It's a Human DNA Problem..............

Well Alien just learned something new about humans and trading tonight !

Tonight was my 10,000 human abduction, and 5th year of trading forex markets for Alien.

I have found out why 95% of all humans lose trading forex.

When a human's life is in disarray and confusion, like 1000's of years ago when humans did not understand,
volcano's, earth quakes, thunder and lighting and such.

They came up with all these gods to pray to, to help them make sense of the world they lived in. ( I am not saying there may not be a God).

I have found out that when humans get frustrated or confused, as in trading the Forex Markets, They simply start seeing things that are not there, and make things up to trade, just to help calm the human mind down, before a meltdown happens to themselves...............

So it is very difficult to trade the forex markets when the human mind wants to see something that is not there, because it can not make sense of the markets at that time.

Please don't over trade and sit on your hands for 20 minutes, and think about what you are about to do for those 20 minutes without making a trade.

To not be able to change a human mind is a terrible thing..............Alien........... ...

AUDCHF, Weekly, 2013 December 01
Likelihood Areas Version A

Beispiel
Wie gross ist die absolute Häufigkeit und die relative Häufigkeit, dass die Balken (Wochenchart) innerhalb der Wahrscheinlichkeitsfelder (Probability Zone 1-3) in dem Zeitraum 2014-2016 auftreten werden?

AUDCHF, Weekly, 2013 December 01
Likelihood Areas Version B

Beispiel
Wie wahrscheinlich kann es zu einem Ausbruch in eine andere Wahrscheinlichkeitszone kommen, wenn der Marktpreis innerhalb der Zone 1 sich bewegen würde.
Kämen hier jedem Ereignis die gleichen Wahrscheinlichkeiten zu? Wären wirlklich alle Ergebnisse gleich wahrscheinlich?
see also #21

In einem Bernoulli-Schema nennt man eine Folge von gleichen Ausgängen (Erfolgen oder Misserfolgen) einen Run.

That's one way from keeping me from reading this thread.............................