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  • #8,401
  • Dec 11, 2009 6:22pm Dec 11, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting Alexandra
Yes, the long term charts are controlling my entries now. The last 2 Fridays have been fortuitous to the value players. But overall, it's been a series of nice bursts followed by disappointment. The technical trade, though, seems to be ready to shift. It is quite a struggle though, which adds some concern at these levels. Fortunately those well positioned can afford to watch with profitable stops., as the U-Boats have stayed away and allowed the flagship some freedom.

I agree with USDCAD - it's a good fundamantal comment, along with AUD. USDCHF...
Hi Alexandrahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Would not EURUSD be the one who shows the way and not USDCHF, or this pair is something that is also considered when considering commodity currency.

Regardshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #8,402
  • Dec 11, 2009 6:55pm Dec 11, 2009 6:55pm
Quoting strat
Glasshopper, he say usdjpy chart velly confusling.

Confuscious he say, don't be daft lad it's all in the charts.

Candlestick maker say I have made a hanging man for you.


Muppets and Pupetts and the girls taking sewing and needlework classes see their stuff.

Alexandra, she still filling her wellies after her cup runneth over

Me, I see an IB in the face of ..................................
The candlestick maker would be wrong as a hanging man only comes after an advance (usually extended) near a peak or strong resistance.

The sewing girls may see Pin and needles, but I see an IB below a support level. As Dr. Joe said its going to keep going down until it stops....
  • #8,403
  • Dec 11, 2009 6:59pm Dec 11, 2009 6:59pm
Quoting strat
Well she certainly agrees with her Alter - Ego!
Both the USD/CHF and the EUR/USD are respecting the worker 20. I don't see any PASR to show an entry, but it does show the power of 20.
  • #8,404
  • Dec 11, 2009 7:19pm Dec 11, 2009 7:19pm
Quoting Jideck
Hi Alexandrahttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Would not EURUSD be the one who shows the way and not USDCHF, or this pair is something that is also considered when considering commodity currency.

Regardshttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
For whatever reason, I have had success over many years "reading into" CHF as a leading technical indicator. Perhaps others have different insights, but to me, it is a bit of a crystal ball, lending perspective to my EURUSD trades. Perhaps it is because there is more movement overall in that market than in EURUSD. Historically, yes, there has been a commodity link, particulalry to the metals (and to oil at times).
  • #8,405
  • Dec 11, 2009 7:25pm Dec 11, 2009 7:25pm
Quoting pipfx
Both the USD/CHF and the EUR/USD are respecting the worker 20. I don't see any PASR to show an entry, but it does show the power of 20.
One could say that the weekly 20 is controlling USDCHF of late; however, I am more inclined to say that it marks confluence with major S/R levels, as does today's close. Notably, though, that R level was not quickly rejected, setting up a relatively easy mark for the nimble trader next week.
  • #8,406
  • Dec 11, 2009 7:30pm Dec 11, 2009 7:30pm
USDJPY close 12/14/08 89.10
USDJPY close 12/11/09 89.05

Hooray for the shorts!
  • #8,407
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:17pm Dec 11, 2009 9:17pm
Quoting strat
Now that is one STRONG statement Mr. Euro!

If you don't know what the statement is, go the the beginning of The Path of Learning.
Now I'm confused. For the most part I'm a very literal person and tend to take things at face value. That certainly doesn't mean I can't reason things out, it just means I don't do so well with vagaries.

Strat, I know better than to say you've made a call here in either direction but it seems the implication is short.

However, I'm going to stick it out here because I'm honestly confused. Everyone is screaming short on the euro and long the dollar and so far those charts agree like you are saying. Here's where I'm just not able to see it...

First EURUSD Monthly is UP not down. Sure, this month shows a massive BEEB but the month isn't over so it doesn't count for squat. Also it's sitting smack dab on the 61.8 fib with the 20 above the 50 and showing strong upward momentum.

Second, the weekly shows almost the same thing. Even though it closed below resistance it stopped cold on the 20 (which is still above the 50 even though it shows slowing momentum) and the 61.8. I see that it also broke DSRI but this just looks wrong to me.

Last, on the daily, today's bar closed below the most recent swing low but at minor resistance on my daily. Also the 20 and 50 have just touched which does indicate lower prices are most likely to come. However, Dr. Joe says it isn't going down...yet.

In all honesty I feel like I'm taking several steps back just by saying all of this but I've gotta know where I'm seeing this wrong. Because according to the rules I've learned thus far (I'm not supposed to be paying attention do DSRI) I don't yet have a valid signal to short. There' no confirming price action at retested resistance and it's against the trend.

In truth, the only thing I see telling me to short is 2 bearish candles in a row on the weekly breaking DSRI and a daily BEEB that isn't at support.

I'm saying all of this out in public view rather than in a PM because at the very least the general populous should benefit from the response and I believe in transparency. I'm not a skilled trader but I'm trying hard and I'm just damn confused right now and more than a little irritated that if this is supposed to be a short why I don't see it.
-m
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  • #8,408
  • Edited 10:24pm Dec 11, 2009 9:40pm | Edited 10:24pm
Again, this is one of my goals for this thread – for students to discuss trading related issues.

Many times I get fed up just seeing my posts and long for some interaction – but NOT from the lurkers and freeloaders – they will ALWAYS get my “Go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning” reply. I detest those who jump in here wanting our opinion of their analysis!

Hi Strat and all,
I apologise that i have not posted since i introduced myself but i am intending to do so more in the new year.
I am still here reading and learning, but was stimulated by this post to hopefully interact and provide a topic of discussion.
I realise that we mainly trade daily with PASR but would like to share the monthly EUR AUD chart as i find this particularly interesting at this point.
I would say that the big boss has been in an uptrend (all be it slight) for the best part of the last 12 years.
The Boss was in an uptrend until approx a year ago but then changed into a down trend.
The worker is stuck in a down trend with the 20 and 50 now merging together with price below approaching 1.5950ish which is the lower low of the current down trend.

I cant help but think that the 1.58 area is crucial for the future direction of this pair, given the S/R and what will be a confirmed trend line (3rd touch) or a change of the long term trend if the price breaks the resistance? giving a potential lower low

I hope this provides discussion and hopefully some opportunities to all on this thread.
Please take with a pinch of salt as i am learning but this is currently what i am attracted to and would look for PASR on the daily to enter.

When i think of the possible trades this may provide i currently start to think of what could trigger such a move.
For instance for price to bounce and climb i think a large episode of risk aversion could trigger such a move meaning the commodity currencies would suffer far more than the EUR. Vice versa Risk appitite giving the opposite effect.

Sumed up the DOW & S&P500 tanks price rises
The DOW & S&P500 continues its upward climb price continues to fall.

Am i right to try and think such a way or am i totally off my head. Again this is currently where i am on my journey.

Hope this makes sense to someone at some level and i am not totally of my rocker...

Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to all from New Zealand.
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PASR student.
  • #8,409
  • Dec 11, 2009 10:10pm Dec 11, 2009 10:10pm
Quoting mstandifer
If the general premise is that USD is oversold and we see USDCHF looking up but we see USDJPY looking down (only for now as Alexandra says)....
If the general premise is that USD is oversold and we see USDCHF looking up but we see USDJPY looking down If this is the case, then CHFJPY will break the range downward.

Does this mean we can expect USDJPY to follow at some point or does the BOJ have other plans? If this is the case, range may continue which would be a tradable range similar to EJ.

And good thinking that it always gives a trader an edge to check main currencies before trading crosses. And for CHFJPY case, I believe USDJPY will be the decider since it is not following the herd.
  • #8,410
  • Dec 11, 2009 11:24pm Dec 11, 2009 11:24pm
Quoting strat
Marto, I copied you on another PM reply to a student in a similar position but was told you do not allow PMs!

What is the point of being on FF if you don't use all it's resources, particularly PMs?

How am I supposed to give you a PRIVATE bollocking without using PMs?

Or do you prefer PUBLIC bollockings?

Joking aside, open up your PMs so that other students can "talk" to you!
Ha! Sorry bout that. Didn't even know I had PM's blocked. I will remedy that immediately and then I must go look up bollockings in the dictionary. LOL, although I'm guessing I already have a pretty good idea what it means!
  • #8,411
  • Dec 12, 2009 12:15am Dec 12, 2009 12:15am
I must go look up bollocking in the dictionary.





Definitions of Bollocking on the Web:

  1. "Bollocks" is a word of Anglo-Saxon origin, meaning "testicles". The word is often used figuratively in British English, as a noun to mean "nonsense", an expletive following a minor accident or misfortune, or an adjective to mean "poor quality" or "useless". ...
  2. (taboo slang) A severe reprimand
  3. bollocked - describes the period during which a painful sensation is experienced by virtue of the testicles being violently assaulted eg by a football

Whoa, damn! Was a little more severe than I thought!!!!
Marto....

  • #8,412
  • Dec 12, 2009 1:26am Dec 12, 2009 1:26am
Here is my chart as at end of trading on friday.

As you can see I have decided that the PA justified a trade, an IB in thursday which triggered on friday and moved up very nicely and was in a nice little profit of 58 pips at one time. It ended the day badly and I really don't like the look of that candle now. Would it be advisable to exit on the basis of that candle and cut my losses or is there still hope for the trade.

I felt that the PA was close enough to my SR to justify considering the trade and placed my SL well under the bottom SR (although this pair has produced some long tails and tops as a matter of course and the SL may not have been enough). The target was that previous high which I would have been more than happy to take profit at or at least lock in some profit with an adjusted SL. I was simply trying to take advantage of the range that this pair has been trading within after seeing that nice IB.

My risk is only .25% of my a/c, but I have never traded a demo, always live with usually very small lots as low as 5c/pip. So I am totally happy to see this plan through, only concern is whether having seen the subsequent PA is that a signal that the IB is a loser anyway.

Comments appreciated

Larry
  • #8,413
  • Dec 12, 2009 1:53am Dec 12, 2009 1:53am
I hope my chart attaches this time
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  • #8,414
  • Edited 3:31am Dec 12, 2009 3:00am | Edited 3:31am
Quoting mstandifer
Now I'm confused. For the most part I'm a very literal person and tend to take things at face value. That certainly doesn't mean I can't reason things out, it just means I don't do so well with vagaries.
...
Hey mstandifier,

I read it as you read it, although is the second consecutive very bearish Week I am not looking for shorts yet. I want to see either a Monthly very bearish bar (and as you said the month is far from over yet) or a clear break of the very important 1.44 level.

P.S. I'd rather look for longs out of 1.44.
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,415
  • Dec 12, 2009 6:07am Dec 12, 2009 6:07am
Quote
"where is Roy, our Welsh Ph.D. in Smoke & Mirrors wizard from down under?"
Unquote.

Hey Buddy, still here,

To be honest, I'm bored shi... out of my stress free mind. This daily/weekly trading is sooooo slow my charts have cobwebs on them. I have'nt had an adrenalin rush in six months!

Holding my NZ trade in the bottom draw, together with a new short on Euro/Usd.

Reading and learning all the time from yourself and your team. This is without a doubt the best thread that I've ever had the privilege of reading.

Roy
Polishing my crystal ball
  • #8,416
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:14am Dec 12, 2009 11:14am
Quoting LarryK
I hope my chart attaches this time
What a bloody awful pair to trade Larry! That just screams chop-chop to me and I would not even trade this pair as trend trader on current showing! There are easier charts to trade imo. Then again, if you have an 'edge' on this pair because many others leave it alone, then I take my hat off to you sire!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,417
  • Dec 12, 2009 12:42pm Dec 12, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting mstandifer
Now I'm confused....
but I'm trying hard and I'm just damn confused right now and more than a little irritated that if this is supposed to be a short why I don't see it.
-m

but I'm trying hard and I'm just damn confused right now and more than a little irritated that if this is supposed to be a short why I don't see it.
-m

As you want some discussion, let's try

Maybe this irritation is at not have taken the shooting star on the 3rd Dec + the long candle next day as a sell signal. Well, to me they were not, as we were still in an uptrend, but certainly a cause for irritation seeing what happened next.

Now, I don't think there was a call for short now either, not at this point after this sell off.

Maybe to look at a place to join it down (a lower high), or look for a place for a bounce up between here and the 1.4450 area (minor).

For now I favour the second option even if it's just and ATM bounce or take half, place SL in B/E (up to that lower high?).

My 2 pence

Spinner
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,418
  • Dec 12, 2009 1:18pm Dec 12, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting Spinner

Maybe this irritation is at not have taken the shooting star on the 3rd Dec + the long candle next day as a sell signal. Well, to me they were not, as we were still in an uptrend, but certainly a cause for irritation seeing what happened next.
Spinner, thank you for your comments. Unfortunately, at least for the purpose of this conversation, I wasn't irritated for not taking the shooting star on the 3rd because I didn't count it as a shooting star. A J16 pin bar for sure but we aren't trading those here. It didn't occur at the top of the trend although it did occur close. The next day's bearish bar didn't break DSRI no matter how you slice it unless you use Nov. 2nd (which I didn't) nor was it a trend reversal candle as we view them here.

If I were going to play this short I would have to either take the break of DSRI on the 8th and subsequent retest and fail on Friday or the piercing of the 100. Neither of which is a qualified trade as far as the rules go.

The only other alternative is to watch for the next LH at resistance and look for a price reversal bar (SS or BEEB).

So, my irritation is based on the assumption (which may or may not be correct) that Strat's chart is saying short this and I just don't see it based on that chart. Maybe I'm trying to see something that isn't there but if it is, then PLEASE beat me about the head and shoulders with it because I know Strat posts those charts for a reason. I'm just not there yet to be able to tell why.
-m
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  • #8,419
  • Dec 12, 2009 1:18pm Dec 12, 2009 1:18pm
Now I'll post something so others can give opinions

Monthly: Cable is in a coil, in exactly the same place it was ranging from Jan 96 till Dec 2002, then again Jan 2002 till September 2003.

Weekly: has pierced the lows of the last eight weeks after two weeks of indecision.

Daily: has closed under a four touch trend line (so what?). And playing around a very minor sup ( also 23.6 fibo of the last rally from the 25th Jan to 2nd of Aug 09).

What I find interesting is that we have had two inside bars daily and notice (for pattern traders), it's closed on the neckline of a SHS.

So, if it breaks down, maybe go to the next sup (1.5780) Which has been defining the low of the ranges in several occasions and close to the 38.2 fibo of the same rally. Also target of the SHS.

Maybe a short under the bottom of Wednesday's low?

Another two pence

Spinner
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #8,420
  • Dec 12, 2009 2:03pm Dec 12, 2009 2:03pm
Quoting Grimweasel
What a bloody awful pair to trade Larry! That just screams chop-chop to me and I would not even trade this pair as trend trader on current showing! There are easier charts to trade imo. Then again, if you have an 'edge' on this pair because many others leave it alone, then I take my hat off to you sire!
So they aren't a pretty couple.

Any comment on the PASR that I could learn from?
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