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  • #8,361
  • Dec 10, 2009 12:44am Dec 10, 2009 12:44am
More Cowboy Song. You can even dance with it if you know how to.
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  • #8,362
  • Dec 10, 2009 7:57am Dec 10, 2009 7:57am
Quoting strat
Nicola, Thank you so much for this post and your honesty.

If you (not just Nicola, but those reading this), understand the psychology aspect of trading, which I will say again, CONTROLS 90% of your success in trading, then you will understand why I do not want people posting how many pips they have made etc.

I have witnessed it and been told it after the fact, people who post on threads about how many pips they have made, are on a HUGE EGO trip, they are FOOLING THEMSELVES, they NEVER disclose how much they have LOST, which is usually FAR GREATER...
Hello,

After reading these posts I thought that it's time I introduce myself. I have been into forex for about 5 years, live trading for 2 years with no success. Taking into account that I have not yet blow up my first account maybe I'm not doing that bad afterall, after reading some horror stories of others.

Talking about trading psychology I want to share one of my horror stories for maybe it will help me and others.

My trading plan here was to limit Stop loss to 100 pips and catch early EUR/USD reversal after it came back to the trendline after breaking it.

Action: 09/04/11 went short EUR/USD at 1.4735 , S/L at 1.4835.
I quickly found myself in the drawdown. After hoping for a turnaround of this steep move up and not getting, I started looking for reasons how to save my trade, so I found the highs of previous swings and moved my s/l UP to 1.4860 ( 25 pips above my MAX loss ) but this is not all.
At 1.4845 I decided that this move up might be topping so I entered another positions for short with S/L at 1.4860 with profit ? I don't know, had no time to think about it. In conclusion I closed my trades at S/L for a loss of 140 pips when my maximum loss alowable was 100. That is 40% more!

This trade taught me a good lesson about following your plan again. But very recently I just did exact same thing. I have lost control over my psychology again.

Person trading demo account would never try to save his loosing capital so hard as his own earned money, its a different world

Trading the amount you can't afford to loose your doomed to get eaten up by those gremlins and demons. Trading smart 1-5% on every each trade gives you a chance to control one self.

Wanted to show by this post the way psychology takes over control and destroys everything else you had planed for that trade. I don't know how succesfull I was in doing this.

Thank you strat for this wondwerfull place you have created.

I'm now dissapearing again into reading the thread further. I hope to catch up someday.
  • #8,363
  • Dec 10, 2009 8:01am Dec 10, 2009 8:01am
Quoting Blackeagle
More Cowboy Song. You can even dance with it if you know how to.
If the general premise is that USD is oversold and we see USDCHF looking up but we see USDJPY looking down (only for now as Alexandra says). Does this mean we can expect USDJPY to follow at some point or does the BOJ have other plans?

From a charts perspective, looking at CHFJPY and the range game, it appears the play would be the near term bounce back up to the 88.5ish area. If that's the case, is there predictive power here to show that at the very least USDJPY will remain neutral if USDCHF continues up?

Conversely, if we see an unexpected sustained drop in USDJPY below 88.00 would that be an indication that CHFJPY may break from it's current range?
-m
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  • #8,364
  • Dec 10, 2009 11:03am Dec 10, 2009 11:03am
Quoting strat
As far as I am concerned, this is short time frame mentality. Because the short time frame traders are living on the “edge” and don’t know where or how far PRICE is going, they TP at 10 pips or whatever number floats their boat. In long term trading, we have a good idea where and how far PRICE is going and will ride the train as long as it keeps chugging along.
Ok, I'm a little slow but what you said finally hit me upside my head at 11:45 last night. I've been worried about manipulating my SL, BE, and trailing stops to manage my trades, when I should be recognizing PASR to manage my trades.

I have spent so much time over the last few months trying to recognize the best entry points that I haven't paid much attention to learning what PASR is telling me AFTER I am already in the trade. Eureka! You nailed it! I'm not strong enough with PASR to really understand what price is doing after I'm in the trade so I've been trying to overcome my lack of confidence in reading price action by managing my risk with tight stops and quick exits.

Dude, you just saved me weeks of wasted time that I was about to spend doing research on where to place my stops and BE points. Now I plan on spending that time (you guessed it!) studying PASR.

Heigh Ho, Heigh Ho, it's off to work I go! (Seven Dwarfs - 1937)
(Sorry, I don't follow music much so that's the best I could do )

Later guys, I'm gonna go hang out some more on the Path. Ya know, in a warped kind of way, I'm actually starting to like it there!


Special note to new people:
There is a lot to learn about trading currency, but as I am finally learning, the secret to consistent success seems to always come down to just two main things:

1. Understanding price action
2. Controlling all that crap we seem to conjure up between our ears

Learn those two things and everything else will probably take care of itself.


Thanks again, Strat. I'll be skipping down the Path if anyone needs me....
Marto
  • #8,365
  • Dec 10, 2009 3:58pm Dec 10, 2009 3:58pm
http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q270/jauaryboy/1.jpg

question for my analysis of eu.

for this trade we have to wait for signal to trigger it?
my seen is it will be going up
because:
1.the trend is changing because it appeared doji show that it is changing its direction
2.it touches the previous minor support line(yellow) and also the candlestick been rejected by boss 25.
3.from the daily we can see the 25 kissing the 50.but in boss chart the 25 is ontop of 50 meaning of uptrend.

so my analysis is to wait for a pa for a trigger.

is my analysis right with this chart?
if i m wrong, please correct me.comment will be appreciated as i m new and slow in this thread.(reading slowly and try to apply thing that i learn to my chart)
  • #8,366
  • Dec 10, 2009 5:06pm Dec 10, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting kaunasny
Hello,

After reading these posts I thought that it's time I introduce myself....
No matter how good our technical skills, funny mental analysis and forecasting clairvoyance, our demons and gremlins will always make us do the wrong things UNLESS we know how to deal with them.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,367
  • Dec 10, 2009 5:09pm Dec 10, 2009 5:09pm
Quoting TTMarto
Ok, I'm a little slow but what you said finally hit me upside my head at 11:45 last night. I've been worried about manipulating my SL, BE, and trailing stops to manage my trades, when I should be recognizing PASR to manage my trades.

I have spent so much time over the last few months trying to recognize the best entry points that I haven't paid much attention to learning what PASR is telling me AFTER I am already in the trade. Eureka! You nailed it! I'm not strong enough with PASR to really understand what price is doing after I'm in the trade...
Seems to me like you have been reading but NOT UNDERSTANDING. Now what is the punishment for that?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,368
  • Dec 10, 2009 5:19pm Dec 10, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting babypips
http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q270/jauaryboy/1.jpg

question for my analysis of eu.

for this trade we have to wait for signal to trigger it?
my seen is it will be going up
because:
1.the trend is changing because it appeared doji show that it is changing its direction
2.it touches the previous minor support line(yellow) and also the candlestick been rejected by boss 25.
3.from the daily we can see the 25 kissing the 50.but in boss chart the 25 is ontop of 50 meaning of uptrend.

so my analysis is to wait for a pa for a trigger.

is...
for this trade we have to wait for signal to trigger it?

For the lowest risk, safest trade we must always have a PASR to make a trade


my seen is it will be going up
because:
1.the trend is changing because it appeared doji show that it is changing its direction

The trend hasn’t changed – only taken a rest (at this point in time)

2.it touches the previous minor support line(yellow) and also the candlestick been rejected by boss 25.

There is no BOSS 25 – you have been reading but NOT UNDERSTANDING – go back to the beginning of The Path and this time read AND understand.


3.from the daily we can see the 25 kissing the 50.but in boss chart the 25 is ontop of 50 meaning of uptrend.

There is no Worker 25 – see above.

so my analysis is to wait for a pa for a trigger.

Our fundamental teaching is ALWAYS wait for a PASR set up for a trade
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,369
  • Dec 10, 2009 6:38pm Dec 10, 2009 6:38pm
Quoting strat
for this trade we have to wait for signal to trigger it?

For the lowest risk, safest trade we must always have a PASR to make a trade



Our fundamental teaching is ALWAYS wait for a PASR set up for a trade

This is a perfect example for "ALWAYS wait for a PASR set up for a trade".
Blackeagle brought us attention to eurnzd chart SR @ 0700 level and a few of us were watch this and patiently waiting for PASR but no show. PASR has helped us stay out of a losing trade.
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  • #8,370
  • Dec 10, 2009 7:26pm Dec 10, 2009 7:26pm
Quoting patrick25
This is a perfect example for "ALWAYS wait for a PASR set up for a trade".
Blackeagle brought us attention to eurnzd chart SR @ 0700 level and a few of us were watch this and patiently waiting for PASR but no show. PASR has helped us stay out of a losing trade.
Still watching.
  • #8,371
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:23am Dec 11, 2009 1:23am
Just wanted to share that I'm having a blast going over through the past posts of all the contributors here. I'm understanding the concepts and method so much better when I can go over passed analysis of the charts and check now to see how they have worked out. After doing this you gain confidence in the method when you see how PA gets you in the trades that are profitable and keeps you out of those that are not most of the time.

Anyone skipping or just going through this thread I suggest to you strongly to go back and go in detail as the benefit of doing so will be great.
  • #8,372
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:28am Dec 11, 2009 3:28am
Quoting patrick25
This is a perfect example for "ALWAYS wait for a PASR set up for a trade".
Quoting patrick25
Blackeagle brought us attention to eurnzd chart SR @ 0700 level and a few of us were watch this and patiently waiting for PASR but no show. PASR has helped us stay out of a losing trade.
I’m liking the EURNZD chart currently - I have a .pdf file on Stops management and the chart looks exactly the same as the eurusd chart that this ‘Dr Barry’ bloke was using to explain 4 different stop strategies that his students use (he's a 37yr trader and trading mentor who coaches active CFA traders etc).

It's a good way of showing how the floor traders clear out all the stops above and below the market catching early bulls and perma bears. I like the fact we have had a significant down TL break with strong upward momentum. The bears then came back into the market and faded that move back with the underlying trend to a higher low - then early bulls stepped in and bought again driving price up to a higher high; at this point people are staring to use limit buy orders at the breakout high of the last up swing with tight stops. These were 'run' by the 'floor' traders and gave way (on their tighter stops being hit) in that area of consolidation then the break from that area back to the up trend line. This is where the next batch of limit-buy orders will be waiting and to clear the market out we could expect a stop-run here that could produce a hammer or BUOB.

He argues that if you know where the stops/limits are hiding then you can hide your stop behind these as they offer an extra layer of protection; most seasoned traders know that these stops and limit orders are placed 1-20 pips behind swing-points, so he argues that often, you increase you risk at these points by having a tight stop at these levels. How many times have you cursed your broker having your stop hit by 1 or 2 pips only for the market to reverse back in the original direction of your initial entry?? By using these 'known' areas of stops/limit you use them to protect your trade.

For well-seasoned traders he recommends a strategy where popular PA set ups are 'faded' for lower risk! As we know where most stop-entry orders are above hammers and below shooting stars (as most retail guys will take them regardless of where they are in the charts) you could limit your risk by placing a fade order at those levels with much tighter stops, say 20 pips on a daily chart. This happened in that gold trade that I took this week. Look how that 'hammer' was taken out first by activating all the buy orders above it's high only to reverse and take out the lows where all the buyers' stoploss orders were at the bottom of the hammer. This then added fuel to the short. A classic 'rinse' job by the pros!

I wouldn’t recommend this strategy to anyone as it’s higher risk and pros are doing it with other people’s money; just that you should always think’ what does the other side of this transaction want to do and what is he expecting the ‘crowd’ to do?’ Always know the strengths of your enemy!

See attached chart. I also note that many systems use the 20/50 MA crossover as a buy signal. How often do you see a strong move after a cross that is followed by strong fade? I'm convinced that Pros sell the first move after a crossover knowing many 'retail' systems use that as an entry signal!! They then come into the market and 'fade' that crossover as they know the stoploss orders on those systems will be too tight for normal market 'noise'. Look back at the charts and you'll see it happening on many occasions (another benefit of F12'ing your way thru charts!!!)
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Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,373
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:56am Dec 11, 2009 3:56am
I too thouught that EURNZD could have turned its trend to up. I was looking to go long but as patrick25 said there was no good PASR and just watched the price break down again.

Looking at the bigger picture, BOSS chart, it seems to me that price hit a pretty strong resistance at 2.11 through a simple ABC pattern (a double trap pattern) and price got back on its down trend.

So, since down trend is still valid I will not look for long entries. But neither short entries because we have strong support at 2.00. Will stay on sidelines again until things get clear.

Cheers!
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,374
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:06am Dec 11, 2009 9:06am
Quoting patrick25
This is a perfect example for "ALWAYS wait for a PASR set up for a trade".
Blackeagle brought us attention to eurnzd chart SR @ 0700 level and a few of us were watch this and patiently waiting for PASR but no show. PASR has helped us stay out of a losing trade.
Good lad, Patrick.

Thanks for bringing this to our attention.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,375
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:11am Dec 11, 2009 9:11am
Quoting kaunasny
Just wanted to share that I'm having a blast going over through the past posts of all the contributors here....
Just wanted to share that I'm having a blast going over through the past posts of all the contributors here. I'm understanding the concepts and method so much better when I can go over passed analysis of the charts and check now to see how they have worked out. After doing this you gain confidence in the method when you see how PA gets you in the trades that are profitable and keeps you out of those that are not most of the time.

Anyone skipping or just going through this thread I suggest to you strongly to go back and go in detail as the benefit of doing so will be great.

Thank you, kaunasny.

I know you are all fed up with seeing this from me but there is no other way to put it:

Read and UNDERSTAND each and every post.


Reading without understanding is an absolute waste of everyone's time
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,376
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:30am Dec 11, 2009 9:30am
Quoting Grimweasel
I’m liking the EURNZD chart currently - I have a .pdf file on Stops management and the chart looks exactly the same as the eurusd chart that this ‘Dr Barry’ bloke was using to explain 4 different stop strategies that his students use (he's a 37yr trader and trading mentor who coaches active CFA traders etc).

[font=Arial]It's a good way of showing how the floor traders clear out all the stops above and below the market catching early bulls and perma bears. I like the fact we have had a significant down TL break with strong upward...
I also note that many systems use the 20/50 MA crossover as a buy signal.

Glad to see you have benefited from using F12 and studying the candles.

Very true, Danny boy but these are mainly private traders, smaller institutions and banks where currency trading is not their primary income vehicle.

There are many reasons why you see a “false start” after a 20/50 crossover and also an unconfirmed bottom.

Without going into all the reasons, the main reason is that the big boys, notably the “drivers” (Hedge Funds) are still closing out their short positions and are not on board with “long” positions yet.

If you study the charts closer, you can almost see where and when these guys take up their long positions. Certainly, if volume meant anything in forex, there would be a huge footprint left behind. If you had the time and inclination, you could see this on the individual currency’s future chart.

Just to make it clear for students on The Path, we do NOT use MA cross overs in any way, shape or form for initiating our trades. They are valuable tools in our tool box used for many things but NOT for triggering our trades.

At this level of our learning, we ONLY trade PASR opportunities.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #8,377
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:47am Dec 11, 2009 9:47am
Quoting soso
I too thouught that EURNZD could have turned its trend to up. I was looking to go long but as patrick25 said there was no good PASR and just watched the price break down again.

Looking at the bigger picture, BOSS chart, it seems to me that price hit a pretty strong resistance at 2.11 through a simple ABC pattern (a double trap pattern) and price got back on its down trend.

So, since down trend is still valid I will not look for long entries. But neither short entries because we have strong support at 2.00. Will stay on sidelines again until...
This really goes to show that two sets of eyes can have completely differing opinions when looking at the same chart.

As I described in my summary of this pair ( http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=8335 ) I see the last two months of price action as a possible resumption of the longterm ( Since July 2007 ) trend, with an agreed strong resistance at the 21 level. Looking at the monthly first in my analysis brought me to this concusion.

This confirms the guidance given on this thread that we must wait for PASR as the ultimate confirmation.
  • #8,378
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:50am Dec 11, 2009 9:50am
Quoting strat
I also note that many systems use the 20/50 MA crossover as a buy signal....
LOL - Yes been reading again but nothing to do with entry/methods etc - just trying to find a money management style that I know I can believe in and trust myself to obey; all stress free of course!
Trade less and become more profitable!
  • #8,379
  • Dec 11, 2009 10:18am Dec 11, 2009 10:18am
Quoting cliftonarms
This really goes to show that two sets of eyes can have completely differing opinions when looking at the same chart.
...
Very true cliftonarms.

And since you brought this up I'd like to ask other PASR method followers if they feel the same. The truth is that it is a very discretionary method and sometimes I feel the need of a little "mechanization" regarding the market structure or the direction in which to trade.
Sometimes I think the trend has turned, like in EURNZD case, made a first set of HL & HH but many times (most?) it isnt enough to fully break a strong & existing trend.

So to keep me out of potential fake new trends I've decided to look for trades only in the direction of Weekly 20 EMA, if you look over weekly charts you'll see that many strong up trends are sustained by the 20 EMA. Viceversa for down trends. It isnt anything magical about 20 EMA, besides being used in this thread and being a common MA.

For me, I believe is a good thing to have a simple mechanical filter to rule over my market structure, at least this is my conclusion up until this point. It speeds up the analysis (by removing the other side bias if any) and completely wipes out thoughts like "It is possible to turn over here, better keep an eye on this pair". Do you find yourself waiting with more interest for trend reversals rather than trend continuations? If yes then you're like me and I dont think this is a good thing. How do you deal with it?

Strat hope is ok to bring this up, I know that your against mechanical rules but I think that for some people (like me!) a few simple rules could turn things around until real experience is gained.

Cheers!
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #8,380
  • Dec 11, 2009 10:20am Dec 11, 2009 10:20am
Quoting TTMarto
Ok, I'm a little slow but what you said finally hit me upside my head at 11:45 last night. I've been worried about manipulating my SL, BE, and trailing stops to manage my trades, when I should be recognizing PASR to manage my trades.

I have spent so much time over the last few months trying to recognize the best entry points that I haven't paid much attention to learning what PASR is telling me AFTER I am already in the trade. Eureka! You nailed it! I'm not strong enough with PASR to really understand what price is doing after I'm in the trade...
Marto, I copied you on another PM reply to a student in a similar position but was told you do not allow PMs!

What is the point of being on FF if you don't use all it's resources, particularly PMs?

How am I supposed to give you a PRIVATE bollocking without using PMs?

Or do you prefer PUBLIC bollockings?

Joking aside, open up your PMs so that other students can "talk" to you!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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