Indicator Free Trading - Skunny | Page 222 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

How to free indicator resources? indicator called from EA 7 replies

COT trading system with free indicator 297 replies

No Free Lunch but all the Free Coffee you can drink 736 replies

SWAP free, rollover free Broker? 15 replies

Attachments: Indicator Free Trading - Skunny
Exit Attachments

Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,421
  • Dec 11, 2009 7:35am Dec 11, 2009 7:35am
There seems to be 2 trains of thought, and I believe Bobokus said this somewhere. You can fib price swings or you can fib timeframes ie what I have just done re FX Compass. I think it will be easier to test fibbing fixed time frames like daily then watch the hourly reactions than just looking at general price swings. I'll try and do some testing on the daily to hourly idea over the weekend. Also a lot depends on your money management. I, as you know, like at least 2 to 1 risk reward whereas others may be happy with 50/50. With a high probabilty outime 50/50 may be better and keep you in more trades.

Looks like I have just written rules of 2 testing scenarios for myself.

And yes Skong, I know what mean. I'm more scarecrow Wizard of Oz style at the moment.

Good US retail sales numbers lads, looks like Santa's been to Macy's.

Stopped out of position by the way, never trade through a big number. My fault.
Keep smiling
  • #4,422
  • Dec 11, 2009 7:56am Dec 11, 2009 7:56am
Quoting FX Compass
Now try the same setups on EJ GJ and UJ.

Also UC now triggered.

How many completed trades ?

How many Pips ?
Agreed EJ, GJ and UJ. I've even answered a question myself which I was going to ask you about which daily candle to fib.

For me UC (if you mean USD CAD that is) has not set up but is close to it. A close below 1.0477 I believe is the trigger.

MD (as I am now known).
Keep smiling
  • #4,423
  • Dec 11, 2009 10:34am Dec 11, 2009 10:34am
Quoting skong
I suppose if the fib is correctly placed, it should get to 138.2 after a pierce of the 0-100 line. That's what I am trying to figure out as well. The recent postings by ThomKnight have been quite helpful.
Sorry I can't give you a better answer than that.
Let's see what happens during the Tokyo session.

SK
I posted a GBPJPY chart last night (EST). Here is the update this morning. I have not moved the fib. It was pulled from the previous daily candle.

1 - Price penetrated the 100, but did not close above it.

2 - Price retraced to the 50.

3 - Price closed above the 100. We are heading to the 138.2 extension.

(I am not sure just how important points 1 and 2 are. From what FX Compass and a few others are saying, we are putting importance on closing outside of the 0 to 100 range.)

4 - 138.2 extension achieved. Price hit it, but did not close above it.

5 - A swing back down to the 100.

6 - Price closed above the 138.2. Are we heading for the 161.8? Or, did we complete a cycle after closing above 138.2, and now a new fib should be pulled?

I would love to hear some thoughts on cycle completion. Someone had mentioned that when price closes beyond 138.2, a new fib should be pulled from there. Others are saying that a fib should simply be pulled from the previous daily candle, which is what I've been doing. If we always pull from a daily candle, then how important is cycle completion? I was pretty sure that Skunny was walking his fibs from previous fibs. I'm also sure that I will be answering my own questions eventually, but posting charts and talking it out always helps.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_20091211.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #4,424
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:03pm Dec 11, 2009 1:03pm
A little more analysis on GBPJPY price action today. In my previous chart, you will see that point 3 shows price closing beyond the 100 line. I took this to mean that price was going to the 138.2 extension, and it did. If we assume that this 100 to 138.2 price movement represents the completion of a cycle, then maybe we pull a fib between the 100 line and the 138.2 extension of the original daily fib? A quote from ThomKnight post #4310 - "Price moves in the fib ratios of 138." On the chart below, the yellow fib is from the original daily candle. The blue fib was pulled between the 100 and 138.2 of the yellow fib. The problem with this technique is that the scale gets smaller with each fib, but it's a fun exercise because it appears to have explained the price action marked by point 7 on the chart. When price went above the original 138.2 without closing, it retraced to the 61.8 of the blue fib, to the pip. This is fun. Price then went north again and looks like it wanted to hit the 161.8 extension, but did it? Maybe not yet. Maybe eventually.

I wonder where the next cycle is.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy_20091211-2.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #4,425
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:35pm Dec 11, 2009 1:35pm
Quoting srelhed
So the questions that begs to be asked is:

How do you define what a correctly placed fib is?
Plotting the high/Low of a single candle in the Daily or higher timeframes ensures that you have pinpointed significant SR levels for the Fib on lower timeframes.

As Skunny stated plot the Fib to one candles High Low and then come down in time frame to observe SR levels that will follow.
  • #4,426
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:41pm Dec 11, 2009 1:41pm
Quoting Misterdaz
There seems to be 2 trains of thought, and I believe Bobokus said this somewhere. You can fib price swings or you can fib timeframes ie what I have just done re FX Compass. I think it will be easier to test fibbing fixed time frames like daily then watch the hourly reactions than just looking at general price swings. I'll try and do some testing on the daily to hourly idea over the weekend. Also a lot depends on your money management. I, as you know, like at least 2 to 1 risk reward whereas others may be happy with 50/50. With a high probabilty...

Misterdaz, a 12 stop loss when the pair had a 17 ATR is as good as asking to be knocked out of the trade.

If you notice in the earlier post I posted for Eu, the Reverse trade would have been triggered when the pair reversed and it Yielded 22 pips after your 16 Pip loss therefore you are still plus 6 pips.

Then you have the short trade triggered at the other end which yielded 30 pips profit.

As Skunny said, one can enter the market and never leave.

This is how I trade some days on 1 Pair only.
  • #4,427
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:45pm Dec 11, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Agreed EJ, GJ and UJ. I've even answered a question myself which I was going to ask you about which daily candle to fib.

For me UC (if you mean USD CAD that is) has not set up but is close to it. A close below 1.0477 I believe is the trigger.

MD (as I am now known).
Apologies Misterdaz - UC is for Loonie USDCHF.

As it turns out I was stopped out of first trade for -15 pips,
then took gains on reverse trade for +17 and +25 respectively.
  • #4,428
  • Edited 2:34pm Dec 11, 2009 2:03pm | Edited 2:34pm
Quoting underdog
I posted a GBPJPY chart last night (EST). Here is the update this morning. I have not moved the fib. It was pulled from the previous daily candle.

1 - Price penetrated the 100, but did not close above it.

2 - Price retraced to the 50.

3 - Price closed above the 100. We are heading to the 138.2 extension.

(I am not sure just how important points 1 and 2 are. From what FX Compass and a few others are saying, we are putting importance on closing outside of the...

Hi Underdog,

I never wait for the candle to close above or below any Fib lines to trigger a trade. Why ?

Because like most that trade Support resistance if the line is breached (broken by price) then that is your entry. Higher highs and Higher Lows or Lower Highs and Lower Lows.

Sure this may result in some false signals, but what makes me feel comfortable is the reverse trade I take when this happens as with EURUSD and USDCHF a few hours ago. See my previous post for triggers and exits for reversals.

It always covers the stop loss.

What happens after the completed trade....

I wait for the price to come back into the Fib range or the day to complete and start again fresh. Why ?

Because my next points of reference will be the single candle that is just completeing.

It doesn't bother me though as most pairs have yielded completed trades (whether extension or reversal) each day for at least 40- 50 pips.

Would you not be happy with 300 - 400 pips a day, and then wait for the candles to complete at GMT 00 for the next setup ?
  • #4,429
  • Edited 2:58pm Dec 11, 2009 2:09pm | Edited 2:58pm
One thing to be wary of though is a ranging pair that whipsaws between the 0/100 trigger and the 23.6/78.6 Fib.

It happens very rarely, but it can happen.
Usually lower volumes are the cause.

It eventually brakes the range as we know, and a target gets hit.
  • #4,430
  • Edited 5:28pm Dec 11, 2009 5:03pm | Edited 5:28pm
Quoting FX Compass
Misterdaz, a 12 stop loss when the pair had a 17 ATR is as good as asking to be knocked out of the trade.

If you notice in the earlier post I posted for Eu, the Reverse trade would have been triggered when the pair reversed and it Yielded 22 pips after your 16 Pip loss therefore you are still plus 6 pips.

Then you have the short trade triggered at the other end which yielded 30 pips profit.

As Skunny said, one can enter the market and never leave.

This is how I trade some days on 1 Pair only.
First of all thanks for taking up the mantel and trying to guide those of us here that are still intrigued with this thread.

"Misterdaz, a 12 stop loss when the pair had a 17 ATR is as good as asking to be knocked out of the trade."

Yes I fully agree and stated that I wouldn't have traded this live. It was just the first setup that I spotted and just wanted to see how it would pan out really (like a kid at Christmas). It was bad timing on my part as I did it not long before US Retail Sales which were pretty good and was the perfect catalyst for the market to buy USD which they did do in spades.

"If you notice in the earlier post I posted for Eu, the Reverse trade would have been triggered when the pair reversed and it Yielded 22 pips after your 16 Pip loss therefore you are still plus 6 pips."

To be fair I need to go back and re-read this post, I have overlooked it. I do find it hard, psychologically, to stop and reverse my position, it's just something I need to unlearn. I suppose I've done it once or twice before but always ended up getting shafted in both directions! It kinda scars you.

I think the other point to make here is for other posters who have joined us and are getting confused on slightlty different ideas banding around. Of late this thread has re-ignited, I hoped it would and so did a few others I think (TraderX). Thanks To you FX Compass and also ThomKnight we now have further incite into fibs and how Skunny tried to teach their uses, we just need to do a bit more practice. What has happened is you both have come up with slighty different styles, ThomKnight has gone more for fibbing price swings and yours daily fibs. Underdog, forgive me for saying this but it has given you conflicting messages, yes? Don't worry I think we are all a bit confused here but I for one can now see a very bright light at the end of the tunnel.

FX Compass and ThomKnights methods are perfect examples of taking Skunny's ideas and applying them in different ways. Skunny didn't teach a system, he just tossed the ball in and we are still running with it.

I do like FX Compass's method and that for me is a good start so I will focus and test that theory and hopefully learn to trade something similar. I'm sure there is more than just trading a break of a daily high or low, there's all those pips inbetween, FX Compass has already touched on reversing your position so there's somthing to be considering.

Out of interest, did anyone buy USD after Retail sales and catch that move?

Darren.
Keep smiling
  • #4,431
  • Dec 11, 2009 5:26pm Dec 11, 2009 5:26pm
Re completed fibs. As Fx compass has pointed out, it doesn't really matter for his style, god it's like Kung-Fu with all these different styles.

As for fibs completing and being walked (more ThomKnight, Skuny etc), I think you would pull your fib to the new ext and move the other end to the 38.2 or 61.8 point depending on which way price is heading, that's my take on it anyway.

Skong where are you? Are you getting this stuff? Is it starting to make sense? I suppose we all have to sleep at some point.

Goodnight.
Keep smiling
  • #4,432
  • Dec 11, 2009 5:42pm Dec 11, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Re completed fibs. As Fx compass has pointed out, it doesn't really matter for his style, god it's like Kung-Fu with all these different styles.

As for fibs completing and being walked (more ThomKnight, Skuny etc), I think you would pull your fib to the new ext and move the other end to the 38.2 or 61.8 point depending on which way price is heading, that's my take on it anyway.

Skong where are you? Are you getting this stuff? Is it starting to make sense? I suppose we all have to sleep at some point.

Goodnight.
Hey MD,
Still here. A lot of new info to digest. Glad that FxCompass is putting forth his spin on things. I understand more of Thomknight's interpretation after rereading some of skunny's stuff.
It's early morning & sunny Down Under. I will definitely post more next week.

Have a goodnight. No doubt fibs will visiting you in your dreams. Ha!

Cheers
  • #4,433
  • Dec 11, 2009 7:21pm Dec 11, 2009 7:21pm
im gonna try to post my first chart...i dont follow the euro but wanted to see what happened today...heres what i came up...btw i walked this fib to this point on the H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.gif Size: 34 KB
  • #4,434
  • Dec 11, 2009 8:03pm Dec 11, 2009 8:03pm
here was the clue that the euro was gonna fall (IMO) as told by this 15M fib......notice the break, retracement and completion to the pip at the 138.2
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro 15m.gif Size: 37 KB
  • #4,435
  • Dec 11, 2009 8:11pm Dec 11, 2009 8:11pm
Quoting Trader_X
im gonna try to post my first chart...i dont follow the euro but wanted to see what happened today...heres what i came up...btw i walked this fib to this point on the H1

Nicely pulled. The question for you is this: How do you make money from this knowledge? Since , for me, this fib was not tradeable. For you? Perhaps.

For posterity here is my chart of the same area and a logical (which is important) walkthrough.

if I was looking for a short move. I would have started from the base. and pulled back looking for respect. Mechnically there are two points of earlier contention before the 100 resting spot in this chart. I would have (for fibbing this way) started on the most recent and wait for it to set up.

Once the peak( that hit the 50 on this chart turned and activated "a" short, I would have seen nothing i liked on the first spot.. upon moving back one.. still nothing capturing my fancy, but behold on the pull back to the spot on this chart what we see! It is a capitally respected chart. The fib is on. The target is good.

We see respect in the past and now it sprang off of the 0 into the 50 and the broke short. I am comfortable saying this target is 100% factoring drawdown from the 100 or perhaps the 50 (not advisable). You will see charts interlock often.

At this point still using a swing fib, Iwould have further boxed in price. Pull back from the 50 I get this range activated as well. I am double short and I have cut my drawdown down to the 50... but one cannot assume it will go to the black target from the red fib. You trade the fib you are in, as pips are a fools errand and risk reward is a non issue.

Price waffles around rising etc.. There is respect on the red fib but the area is a flipping mess. I would have tracked the up slope and entered on a break of the trend line since it was already active, or the price coming so close to the 100 may have been jolly good fun to enter to juice up your profit by not needing to factor for much drawdown.

This all assumes a NON prenews fib. You do not trade those. Your smaller fibs will break. Why risk anything?

I may have entered both on the pierce and reloaded on the red fib. Once it took red target, I would watch price and in this case let it run to black if it paused or turned I would exit all positions as it could retrace, from this information, all the way back into blacks upper regions , before taking black's target.

This is one way to trade this information. You may also just take short scalps as they set up since you know the trend is short. If you lose the idea of needing as many pips as possible and embrace the concept that a small simple 5 pip trade that you are 100% about and will be done fast( life is for living not being shackled to an LCD)..you will start to get it mates. If you are underfunded to what you wish to be earning just have patience.

This is just my pitch on the area and had I been daffy enough to be trading a Friday ( Don't like getting potentially stuck over the break in a trade) would have had no issues in setting up real time. EU is one very good starting point for anyone.

TK

For clarity, the black fib is a quality trading fib and the red fib is a range fib that since it retraced past the 61.8 was more to trap prices but was based of of the frame work of a rock solid fib and that makes sense regardless of respect since respect and range fibbing can coexist if you are set up properly. I never solely trade range fibs since there is too much tracking and walking and watching for me. The respect on a fib is my short cut.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eutrade.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #4,436
  • Dec 11, 2009 8:33pm Dec 11, 2009 8:33pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Attachment

Here's another nice chart. It will be cloudy in Scotland today, with a chance of rain over London and central England (no change there then).

Attachment
G'Day!

Lets see why this was wrong mate! First for swing fibbing, per Skunny, sans respect we pull back and down for short up and back for long. this was set up to look for a short, but you took it long.

Non withstanding that first chart would have been the logical first swing fib move. Took profit. Done trading. Second chart is how I would have tweaked it since it look a right beauty and utilized the 61.8. Price never made it to the second swing spot.

Third chart is where we get into the bangers and mash of the situation. our swing fib would have been the black line. You would have failed. If you had been track price like you need to do when purely swing fibbing you would have not done this I suspect. I do not like to track price that much. Hence this is the logial trade I see here.

From the base to the 61.8 and respect in the past a trigger at teal and re respect at the 50 giving us another entry on the up break of that candle. Pure poetry. This is a great example for my preference to respect based fibbing as opposed to range fibbing. It is easier and the fib tells you not a string of walking the fib around. Either or though I suppose, but when the fib gets respected I know it is on without a doubt and don't wring my hands as to if I missed something.

TK
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: stepone.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: steptwo.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: stepthree.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #4,437
  • Dec 11, 2009 9:19pm Dec 11, 2009 9:19pm
3 trades one fit to price(sr) the other two sloppy range fibs. The third fib could have been taken from the 50 respect candle upbreak knowing about the first range fib beforehand. The first fib is what I traded by exploiting the 61.8 trend property of fibs and taken on the break of the signal line. Right to target.

GLGT have a smashing weekend gents!


TK
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gyfirst.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gyslop1.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gyslop2.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #4,438
  • Dec 12, 2009 6:44am Dec 12, 2009 6:44am
Quoting ThomKnight
G'Day!

Lets see why this was wrong mate! First for swing fibbing, per Skunny, sans respect we pull back and down for short up and back for long. this was set up to look for a short, but you took it long.

Non withstanding that first chart would have been the logical first swing fib move. Took profit. Done trading. Second chart is how I would have tweaked it since it look a right beauty and utilized the 61.8. Price never made it to the second swing spot.

Third chart is where we get into the bangers and mash of the situation. our swing fib...
Ahhhhhhh!

Attached Image


Keep smiling
  • #4,439
  • Dec 12, 2009 10:08am Dec 12, 2009 10:08am
Quoting Misterdaz
Ahhhhhhh!

Attachment

A side splitter! We haven't even begun! There are fib fans, ellipsed arcs and Gann lines left! Chuckle!


Sorry to pickle your noodle with my charts, mate!

TK
  • #4,440
  • Dec 12, 2009 11:40am Dec 12, 2009 11:40am
Quoting ThomKnight
3 trades one fit to price(sr) the other two sloppy range fibs. The third fib could have been taken from the 50 respect candle upbreak knowing about the first range fib beforehand. The first fib is what I traded by exploiting the 61.8 trend property of fibs and taken on the break of the signal line. Right to target.

GLGT have a smashing weekend gents!


TK
I have notice that too but in the last EUR move before it slided down. I wans´t sure if it could work like it does. I´ll be posting some charts when I got to my own cpu.

Thanx for the input man.

Have a nice weekend yourself.Enjoy it.
1 trader viewing now