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  • #171,301
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:11pm Dec 11, 2009 3:11pm
Quote
Actually it's easy to figure out why EURUSD has been flying down

lately.

#1 Some positive US data, which usually hurts dollar now was actually

supportive because of the FED FOMC announcement around the corner

and Lunatics are betting on more chances that "Helicopter

Ben" will Rise rates on his own credit card. Ain't happening guys http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s...m/big_grin.gif

I don't have to wait for Tuesday, I know there is 100% no change in rates...

They need to create JOBS!!!! 10% Unemployment are you kidding...

I agree. Sound reasoning.

Do you think this abnormal price movement is also because of december low volumes?
  • #171,302
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:15pm Dec 11, 2009 3:15pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Actually it's easy to figure out why EURUSD has been flying down

lately.

#1 Some positive US data, which usually hurts dollar now was actually

supportive because of the FED FOMC announcement around the corner

and Lunatics are betting on more chances that "Helicopter

Ben" will Rise rates on his own credit card. Ain't happening guys

I don't have to wait for Tuesday, I know there is 100% no change in rates...

They need to create JOBS!!!! 10% Unemployment are you kidding me?
you listen to to much news. forex markets were created out the need to exchange currency.. the biggest mover of market is supply and demand. when i buy a beamer the usd has to be converted to euro creating a euro demand.. without a job i buy less beamers. thus decrease euro demand. this is the way the gorrilla in forex works. the little crap we and banks do here is create a false demand through speculation. well it works fine until gold drops and oil drops.. then these guys long have to get out. so they need to covert much of this into usd to do so. creating demand for usd...once there is a crack it may snowball.. as the stronger usd gets the more that leave their gold trade ect. = usd demand= stronger dollar.. if oil drops more this will continue as people get out. the same thing happens to people on the wrong side of a currency pair. when eu long gets out they buy usd and sell euro..more snowball.... this happens when to many people are long just like a ponzi scheme. with everyone long their are no new buyers to push it higher. then it falls.. rinse repeat.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #171,303
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:15pm Dec 11, 2009 3:15pm
I'm all for selling EU down to 1.25 again, I just am wondering if it will go back up to 1.49 before it falls...
  • #171,304
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:16pm Dec 11, 2009 3:16pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=170904

Hit.
  • #171,305
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:17pm Dec 11, 2009 3:17pm
Quoting Clouds
I'm all for selling EU down to 1.25 again, I just am wondering if it will go back up to 1.49 before it falls...

All any of us can do is make a somewhat educated F*&#@n guess and protect our capital.
  • #171,306
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:22pm Dec 11, 2009 3:22pm
Quoting GulfCoastPip
All any of us can do is make a somewhat educated F*&#@n guess and protect our capital.

i hear that..its all guess work...all i see is big player gunning stops and technicals are out of the window...making it guess work
  • #171,307
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:25pm Dec 11, 2009 3:25pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
IBFX trading closed 1.4628..

We can smoke now

"If you see price moving south, SHORT
If you see price moving north, BUY"

X. Oden I agree, that's the best case scenario, I'm trading too but on TEST account so far..

Many pips to you.
please don't forget to pass it to me this time !!!!!!!!
hang on to your bread......unless you want toast
  • #171,308
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:30pm Dec 11, 2009 3:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
you listen to to much news. forex markets were created out the need to exchange currency.. the biggest mover of market is supply and demand. when i buy a beamer the usd has to be converted to euro creating a euro demand.. without a job i buy less beamers....
. This should be a sticky.
Too many people think they are one of the big dogs & waste their time trying to rationalize those figures etc. 500 pips downmove & some are still trying justify being in the wrong trade. That is delusional.
Let's hope the newer traders do not try to go down that dark road.
Thank You
  • #171,309
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:46pm Dec 11, 2009 3:46pm
Quoting wormboy
. This should be a sticky.
Too many people think they are one of the big dogs & waste their time trying to rationalize those figures etc. 500 pips downmove & some are still trying justify being in the wrong trade. That is delusional.
Let's hope the newer traders do not try to go down that dark road.
You know the same could be said on the flip side. 1900 pips upmove and some are still trying to justify being in the wrong trade.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #171,310
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:55pm Dec 11, 2009 3:55pm
Interesting 320 MA I draw on Daily chart..

Look top RED last 2008 drop see how that line is touch 320 PINK MA

and then broke down. And now if this is same case we have closest support

at about 1.4487-95 (white line), but that 320 MA is at about 1.4243 that's where it could drop

at least based on that and still be uptrend...

Check:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-320ma.jpg Size: 190 KB
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #171,311
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:55pm Dec 11, 2009 3:55pm
i really cant understand all this blabbering about the future :
sure it might be useful to know what might happen next year,and in this regard i second what gator said-->we'll prolly go down,but i think that in the end we'll just have to adapt.
btw this week has been awesome for me.monday i lost 40% of my account on the worst trade i ever made (long on friday xD) but then i gained it all back and this evening i broke even!

so in the end:my very first week of forex was awesome.i learned what true fear is as first thing.then came relief.

thanks you all for the invaluable teachings!
  • #171,312
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:57pm Dec 11, 2009 3:57pm
what do you guys think about ''American Dream 2: Default, Then Rent solution '' in long term ?
  • #171,313
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:58pm Dec 11, 2009 3:58pm
Scroll to the left, see how Daily trend is going right alone that MA??

Interesting:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu-320ma-to-left.jpg Size: 185 KB
Viewer Discretion Advised: Shall we shag now or should we shag later? :-)
  • #171,314
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:01pm Dec 11, 2009 4:01pm
Quoting SkyzerFX
Interesting 320 MA I draw on Daily chart..

Look top RED last 2008 drop see how that line is touch 320 PINK MA

and then broke down. And now if this is same case we have closest support

at about 1.4487-95 (white line), but that 320 MA is at about 1.4243 that's where it could drop

at least based on that and still be uptrend...

Check:
depends on tf.. if you use july 2008 its a down trend atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #171,315
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:05pm Dec 11, 2009 4:05pm
stopped out 4688 lost 5k. bears you win.
Quoting surya2k
Worst trading day in my life. Since it fallen from 1.508 I was holding 2 positions and then was keep buying at 1.48 level, then 1.477 level but all my hope wiped out today after it fall below 1.460 level, which is extremely dangerious to hold long positions. And, finally closed all my long positions with 8000$ loss and it wiped out all my profits which I had earned in last 45 days.

Now, I am not sure where it is heading towards.
  • #171,316
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:12pm Dec 11, 2009 4:12pm
I just know this. If next weeks friday weekly bar closes below 4625, I will concede that we may be in a trend reversal, (which fundamentally I don't see hapening until mid next year). And close all of my longs that i've been holding since April and so on, and have a nice Christmas holiday.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #171,317
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:15pm Dec 11, 2009 4:15pm
Quoting tonyo524
You know the same could be said on the flip side. 1900 pips upmove and some are still trying to justify being in the wrong trade.
Yes absolutely. Those who did that were either trading with peanuts or demo account. No sane trader will do that. Chances are those who try to sound smart by justifying bad trades when large moves are happening are not trading serious amount of money, because if they are, they won't be on a public forum yapping away while their money fly out the window.
Bottom line is don't try to be a hero. Holding 500 to 1000 pips drawdown is plain stupid.

Hope I didn't ruffled any feathers lol. I felt I need to voice this out as I'm sure there are new traders were reading on the matter & it needs to be set straight.

Have a good weekend
Thank You
  • #171,318
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:16pm Dec 11, 2009 4:16pm
It happened, I woke up this morning to a huge spike down off some really stupid USD numbers... OF COURSE RETAIL SALES ARE BETTER, ITS F'ING XMAS. Still doesnt justify the 100+ pip fall. The thing thats going to piss me off is when it jumps back up to 15000 by the end of next week.

Anyway, I got a margin call. My own stupid fault, but there it is. -$23,000 for the year. Now its time to step back, evaluate my mistakes, learn from them and try again.
  • #171,319
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:18pm Dec 11, 2009 4:18pm
Quoting surya2k
Worst trading day in my life. Since it fallen from 1.508 I was holding 2 positions and then was keep buying at 1.48 level, then 1.477 level but all my hope wiped out today after it fall below 1.460 level, which is extremely dangerious to hold long positions. And, finally closed all my long positions with 8000$ loss and it wiped out all my profits which I had earned in last 45 days.

Now, I am not sure where it is heading towards.
I completely understand where your comming from. I did something of the same, averaged down all the way to 14733, woke up this morning to a margin call, loosing the 72% profit I had made in the last 3 months and 90% of my original deposit.
  • #171,320
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:23pm Dec 11, 2009 4:23pm
Quoting wormboy
Yes absolutely. Those who did that were either trading with peanuts or demo account. No sane trader will do that. Chances are those who try to sound smart by justifying bad trades when large moves are happening are not trading serious amount of money, because if they are, they won't be on a public forum yapping away while their money fly out the window.
Bottom line is don't try to be a hero. Holding 500 to 1000 pips drawdown is plain stupid.

Hope I didn't ruffled any feathers lol. I felt I need to voice this out as I'm sure there are new traders...
Furthermore. Big money traders (Not my self of course, I've only got about 15 mini lots long at different levels open currently) but big money traders trade on monthly levels. Hedging their bets with other venues. etc commodities.

No feathers ruffled here newbie!http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon6.gif
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
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