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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,401
  • Dec 11, 2009 2:13am Dec 11, 2009 2:13am
Quoting skong
Added 1 more fib

Your thoughts MD ?
Hey there skong,

Good to see your analysis , but are you taking any trades?
I'm battling away on the G/U 15 min chart and its a great learning curve,
even if you lose a little, but on a mini account is no big deal...at least you
get a feel for the market...just my thoughts...

Cheers

HR
  • #4,402
  • Dec 11, 2009 3:05am Dec 11, 2009 3:05am
Quoting highroller
Hey there skong,

Good to see your analysis , but are you taking any trades?
I'm battling away on the G/U 15 min chart and its a great learning curve,
even if you lose a little, but on a mini account is no big deal...at least you
get a feel for the market...just my thoughts...

Cheers

HR
Hello Highroller. I think there are pros and cons to diving straight in and taking trades, I know Skunny told everybody to go and practice centuries of data on vhands before going live. On the other hand live trading will focus your mimd very quickly and empty your bank account at the same rate if you are not careful! Remember this old adage "Plan your trade and trade your plan!" Good luck anyway Highroller, if you do well I'll have a bottle of Glenfiddich for Christmas and Skong would like tickets to see Mark King.

Skong. All the fibs you have drawn agree within my thinking of how to fit them to current price. Your Blue fib would act as a larger fib I suppose and your Green a smaller one for gauging current price action. The red one, although correctly drawn from my perspective, we do not need yet as the green has not yet completed.

I was thinking about your comments earlier re diving straight in and drawing a fib on a chart. You are right Skunny did say you need to back up a ways and work your way forward. I think we need to find an earlier valid fib ie one where you pull it from an actual swing high to low and a 61.8% fits perfectly, do you see what I mean. I don't mean make a 61.8% fit like we have here. If you look at the fibs we have both drawn, we don't fit them perfectly to any swing highs we just make sure price clips our 61.8%.

I think if we can find this earlier more valid fib if you will, then we can move forward from where price has hit the 138's.

Dunkan, thomKnight, DxTrade, FX Compass, anyone? Am I on the right track or is it back to the drawing board?
Keep smiling
  • #4,403
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:17am Dec 11, 2009 4:17am
Quoting Misterdaz
Hello Highroller. I think there are pros and cons to diving straight in and taking trades, I know Skunny told everybody to go and practice centuries of data on vhands before going live. On the other hand live trading will focus your mimd very quickly and empty your bank account at the same rate if you are not careful! Remember this old adage "Plan your trade and trade your plan!" Good luck anyway Highroller, if you do well I'll have a bottle of Glenfiddich for Christmas and Skong would like tickets to see Mark King.

Skong. All the fibs you...
You are 100% correct there MD, but ya gotta get your hands dirty & feel the pain & exhileration of winning & losing...but practice is the best medicine....but sooner or later ya gotta pull the trigger...dont be shy!

Cheers

HR
  • #4,404
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:24am Dec 11, 2009 4:24am
Quoting highroller
You are 100% correct there MD, but ya gotta get your hands dirty & feel the pain & exhileration of winning & losing...but practice is the best medicine....but sooner or later ya gotta pull the trigger...dont be shy!

Cheers

HR
Oh I'm not shy, just careful and maybe a bit long in the tooth. If you knew what I did for a living you'd understand how much I appreciate your comments!

Darren.
Keep smiling
  • #4,405
  • Edited 4:47am Dec 11, 2009 4:38am | Edited 4:47am
Quoting Misterdaz
Hello Highroller. I think there are pros and cons to diving straight in and taking trades, I know Skunny told everybody to go and practice centuries of data on vhands before going live. On the other hand live trading will focus your mimd very quickly and empty your bank account at the same rate if you are not careful! Remember this old adage "Plan your trade and trade your plan!" Good luck anyway Highroller, if you do well I'll have a bottle of Glenfiddich for Christmas and Skong would like tickets to see Mark King.

Skong. All the fibs you have...


Guys, I have been trading this system for over 12 months now very succesfully :

1. Never on anything under 1 HR timeframe - too much noise and stop hunting. Although you can do it if you are prepared too nurse your SL and keep it hidden.

2. The 0 and 100 on the Fib are always at major SR levels, they must be taken from a major high (Resistance) to a Major low (support).
This is why Skunny chose one candle for fib on Daily or higher.
It puts the 0 and 100 on the days/weeks/months high low every time.
It also removes any mis-interpretation by the trader.
In addition to this, a break of major SR results in many other non-Fib traders entering the trade in the same direction. Therefore stronger momentum to push through to the 138 or -38 Target.

3. A reversal can sometimes occur but with everything Fib, it always goes to a cental point at a minimum (the 50).
So, do we have a reversal trade in this instance ?.

Hope this helps....
  • #4,406
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:45am Dec 11, 2009 4:45am
Quoting highroller
Hey there skong,

Good to see your analysis , but are you taking any trades?
I'm battling away on the G/U 15 min chart and its a great learning curve,
even if you lose a little, but on a mini account is no big deal...at least you
get a feel for the market...just my thoughts...

Cheers

HR
Nothing like a live trade for sure, but at this stage for me, trading is secondary. I like to see how price dances around these fibs first. Hope you are making inroads.
  • #4,407
  • Edited 4:49am Dec 11, 2009 4:48am | Edited 4:49am
Thanks for your direct answers. Finally someone has confirmed that they do well with this, it makes all the effort worthwhile, thankyou again FX Compass.

One question, when you pull a fib from major high to major low, do you look for one where price hits the 61.8 or 38.2 when drawing it or, do you ignore this and wait for this to occur after you have pulled it and therefore confirm the fib is correct?

I know this sounds pedantic but correctly drawn fibs are the key to this whole concept.

Darren
Keep smiling
  • #4,408
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:57am Dec 11, 2009 4:57am
Quoting Misterdaz
Thanks for your direct answers. Finally someone has confirmed that they do well with this, it makes all the effort worthwhile, thankyou again FX Compass.

One question, when you pull a fib from major high to major low, do you look for one where price hits the 61.8 or 38.2 when drawing it or, do you ignore this and wait for this to occur after you have pulled it and therefore confirm the fib is correct?

I know this sounds pedantic but correctly drawn fibs are the key to this whole concept.

Darren
Seems the starting point is throwing you.

Bring up any daily chart.

Place the fib down one completed (not current) candle.
If the candles high or low is breached (broken) then you have a trigger.

Now go to hourly chart - what do you see ?

The daily candle Fibs are the SR levels that are respected by the next days hourly chart.
  • #4,409
  • Dec 11, 2009 4:59am Dec 11, 2009 4:59am
Quoting FX Compass
Seems the starting point is throwing you.

Bring up any daily chart.

Place the fib down one completed (not current) candle.
If the candles high or low is breached (broken) then you have a trigger.

Now go to hourly chart - what do you see ?

The daily candle Fibs are the SR levels that are respected by the next days hourly chart.

EU just broke yesterdays high.

Will it reach the 138 Fib at 1.4788.... Lets see ?
  • #4,410
  • Dec 11, 2009 5:02am Dec 11, 2009 5:02am
Quoting FX Compass
EU just broke yesterdays high.

Will it reach the 138 Fib at 1.4788.... Lets see ?
PS If it reverses through the 78.6 @ 1.4743
Then the 50 becomes the target @ 1.4721.

All bases covered.
  • #4,411
  • Dec 11, 2009 5:08am Dec 11, 2009 5:08am
Skong. All the fibs you have drawn agree within my thinking of how to fit them to current price. Your Blue fib would act as a larger fib I suppose and your Green a smaller one for gauging current price action. The red one, although correctly drawn from my perspective, we do not need yet as the green has not yet completed.

I have removed the red fib. Interesting that it reached the 138.2 ext at the London session. I have inserted a black fib. That is another reason why price did a U turn, without hitting the green 138.2 ext.

I was thinking about your comments earlier re diving straight in and drawing a fib on a chart. You are right Skunny did say you need to back up a ways and work your way forward. I think we need to find an earlier valid fib ie one where you pull it from an actual swing high to low and a 61.8% fits perfectly, do you see what I mean. I don't mean make a 61.8% fit like we have here. If you look at the fibs we have both drawn, we don't fit them perfectly to any swing highs we just make sure price clips our 61.8%.

I hear you.


I think if we can find this earlier more valid fib if you will, then we can move forward from where price has hit the 138's.

Yes. I can only find 50 % fit so far, which can work as well.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1112 eu3.JPG Size: 165 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1112 eu4.JPG Size: 155 KB
  • #4,412
  • Dec 11, 2009 5:12am Dec 11, 2009 5:12am
Thanks again. I'll have a look and revert.

Ha ha ha. Sorry just saw the clip of Madoff on Bloomberg tv. The one where the photographer shoves him, always makes me laugh that. Sorry I'll go and study.
Keep smiling
  • #4,413
  • Dec 11, 2009 5:41am Dec 11, 2009 5:41am
Quoting FX Compass
EU just broke yesterdays high.

Will it reach the 138 Fib at 1.4788.... Lets see ?
Yes I see this now, 1.4787 is the next target. We have had 2 peirces of the 100 line but no close over it yet. A close would be the trigger I suppose if it suits your R & R ratio's.

I am a bit of a dumba$$, I seem to remember trying this theory out in Forex Tester and it wasn't bad actually. Really we are just trading a break of a trading range but with probably a very accurate target in mind.

Again, FX Compass, am I right in saying this is just your take on Skunny's concept. This is how it works for you, and by the sound of it you are happy with it.

Skong, have you had a look at FX Compass's comments yet, a slight re jigg of theory if you will.

I really must do some work now, these threads can become quite addictive. I can see why my kids love MSN.

Cheers.
Keep smiling
  • #4,414
  • Edited 5:50am Dec 11, 2009 5:49am | Edited 5:50am
SKUNNY "What I asked you to do with the weekly chart is use 1 candle and fib it. Then I asked you to observe what followed. I did this not as a trading strategy, but to help you study S/R as it relates to theses fibs. Weekly candles are most reliable and as you go down in time frames it weakens and gives way to the stronger (higher) time frames. So, you must know daily if you want to trade hourly....and so on. If you want to trade 15mn time frame you don't need too much daily information just 1/4 hr. I'm sure you get the idea, it's been said somewhere before I'm sure.

The market likes to give hints on where it is going to go next, even if it takes a while to get there. You can observe this when S/R lines are penetrated but not broken. As long as you have your S/R in the right spot."

You're on the right path Misterdaz.

See how the market reacts to SR levels which are supported by correctly plotted Fibs.
  • #4,415
  • Dec 11, 2009 6:13am Dec 11, 2009 6:13am
Have just bought EURUSD (Demo) at 1.4764.

Why?

Fibbed yesterdays daily range (as per FX Compass).

Today price just closed above the 100 on the hourly but leaving the daily fib in place of yesterday's range.

Target 1.4788.

Potential profit 24 pips.

For my s/l should be 12 pips (2 to 1)

I'll see what happens.

Now I probably wouldn't take this trade live, the risk reward is not worth it. 12 pips is so close to my entry that it will probably get hit even if I am right eventually. I will never risk more than I plan to make it just doesn't make sense even if these are high probability trades.

It's coming up Christmas now and the markets are quitening down. I would normaly expect price to tighten up into smaller ranges. You never know in this climate though, with low liquidity we could get some wild price swings.

Back later.
Keep smiling
  • #4,416
  • Dec 11, 2009 6:31am Dec 11, 2009 6:31am
Attached Image


Here's another nice chart. It will be cloudy in Scotland today, with a chance of rain over London and central England (no change there then).

Attached Image
Keep smiling
  • #4,417
  • Edited 6:43am Dec 11, 2009 6:41am | Edited 6:43am
Quoting Misterdaz
Attachment

Here's another nice chart. It will be cloudy in Scotland today, with a chance of rain over London and central England (no change there then).

Attachment

Now try the same setups on EJ GJ and UJ.

Also UC now triggered.

How many completed trades ?

How many Pips ?
  • #4,418
  • Dec 11, 2009 6:49am Dec 11, 2009 6:49am
Well ,
That explains the yellow X's on the chart in post 1116.
Daily H L.
I just couldn't figure out why he chose those HL before .....

Yes MD,
Something else to consider. My mind feels like jelly now.
  • #4,419
  • Dec 11, 2009 6:53am Dec 11, 2009 6:53am
Quoting skong
Well ,
That explains the yellow X's on the chart in post 1116.
Daily H L.
I just couldn't figure out why he chose those HL before .....

Yes MD,
Something else to consider. My mind feels like jelly now.

Only too happy to give back something to this FF which has helped me so much.
  • #4,420
  • Dec 11, 2009 7:00am Dec 11, 2009 7:00am
Quoting FX Compass
See how the market reacts to SR levels which are supported by correctly plotted Fibs.
So the questions that begs to be asked is:

How do you define what a correctly placed fib is?
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