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  • #170,741
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:01pm Dec 10, 2009 1:01pm
these drops will kill you
  • #170,742
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:03pm Dec 10, 2009 1:03pm
Quoting harpersindex
you add to losing positions?!? why!?!
averaging down can be a useful tool in the hands of someone experienced, that knows when to add and when to take it off the table. On the other hand, for someone that is inexperienced, it can easily blow an account. Typically this is because people use too high of leverage to begin and don't have reasons for their trades.
  • #170,743
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:05pm Dec 10, 2009 1:05pm
Trade gap narrowed; the cheaper dollar is having an effect on the US economy.
  • #170,744
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:05pm Dec 10, 2009 1:05pm
i agree if you have a target plan but blindly averaging down will kill you.

Quoting Protogenos
averaging down can be a useful tool in the hands of someone experienced, that knows when to add and when to take it off the table. On the other hand, for someone that is inexperienced, it can easily blow an account. Typically this is because people use too high of leverage to begin and don't have reasons for their trades.
  • #170,745
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:08pm Dec 10, 2009 1:08pm
Quoting harpersindex
isn't it better to just get out than make things more complicated?
is better to step aside at moment, because reading of price action now may not work for eur/usd.
  • #170,746
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:09pm Dec 10, 2009 1:09pm
Quoting Protogenos
averaging down can be a useful tool in the hands of someone experienced, that knows when to add and when to take it off the table. On the other hand, for someone that is inexperienced, it can easily blow an account. Typically this is because people use too high of leverage to begin and don't have reasons for their trades.

Averaging down to protect a loser is not going to work, buying on dips because your long term view supports this is all part of a strategy.
  • #170,747
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:09pm Dec 10, 2009 1:09pm
Quoting Exsilium
LOL, seriously though... im trying to protect a terrible trade
You've already been told to get out. Close the trade, take the loss, clear your head, and move on to the next setup.

Quoting Exsilium
which I believe will recover because of the 14670 support level that has solidified over the last 24 hours. However, my so called "beliefs" are what caused me to be in this situation in the first place so I am trying to gather as much information as I can to make a better educated decision.
You've just answered your own question to a problem. And how do you know that price will jump back up on the S/L level? None of us here on FF know. I can tell you professional and institutional traders don't know which way the markets going to turn. Never try and "predict" the market. Always be ready to adjust your trades. Trade where the market goes and be ready for that sharp curve ahead.

Quoting Exsilium
My account is already down 65% from my original deposit over the last couple days, as my attempts to hedge this 400 pip freefall have taught me yet another expensive lesson in my year of trading.
Really. You are really riding those losses. A trade goes bad, get out!!!

Quoting Exsilium
Ive gone through this before, loosing 33% of original balance
Yet, you haven't learned your lesson.

Quoting Exsilium
only to gain 150% from that point, but this ... this is different.
It's called luck. I agree, we all need a little luck sometime. An no this isn't different than the last time.

Quoting Exsilium
None of the technicals I use justified this freefall and my blind faith in my so called "system" has rattled my faith altogether.
You can't put all of your faith in the technicals. Technicals will give you false readings about the same as your are lossing at this point, which has been often judging by the past few days (as you say).

Quoting Exsilium
I still am LONG bias, but were at a critical point right now and I am trying to figure out if I should cut my losses now or hold on for the expected rebound back up to 1.5+.
There you go, predicting market movement again. Kill that trade. Protect your account. If you acct can't take much more punishment, then stop. 33% loss in a matter of days is a huge loss. Why continue at this rate.
  • #170,748
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:10pm Dec 10, 2009 1:10pm
a have some longs in play because i know i'm right
  • #170,749
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:12pm Dec 10, 2009 1:12pm
Quoting harpersindex
a have some longs in play because i know i'm right
Pation is the Holy Grail
  • #170,750
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:13pm Dec 10, 2009 1:13pm
i've been scalping heavily with this price action
Quoting aking
is better to step aside at moment, because reading of price action now may not work for eur/usd.
  • #170,751
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:16pm Dec 10, 2009 1:16pm
History is History!!! What about future?
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  • #170,752
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:17pm Dec 10, 2009 1:17pm
Quoting Driver55
Let's say:
A action plan should you always have.
I understand that you are suffering, but in this situation I don't think there's anybody that can help. It's very subjective.

I have 4 long long-term position , at this moment, without despair.
The only thing I can say is, even before enter the market, you must have clearly in mind where you must stop.
otherwise the market, sooner or later, overwhelm you.
AGREE!

But Driver, very few can learn from others and take this advice. Most must go through the pain (maybe many times) before this truth becomes a part of them and they truly apply it to their trading. I am a shining example of that!
  • #170,753
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:18pm Dec 10, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting Exsilium
LOL, seriously though... im trying to protect a terrible trade, which I believe will recover because of the 14670 support level that has solidified over the last 24 hours. However, my so called "beliefs" are what caused me to be in this situation in the first place so I am trying to gather as much information as I can to make a better educated decision. My account is already down 65% from my original deposit over the last couple days, as my attempts to hedge this 400 pip freefall have taught me yet another expensive lesson in my year of trading.

Ive...

If i were you, i will put my SL @ 1.46, but right now i will stay put as long as 1.4625 is not intact. Let's see tomorrow where EU close by weekend and next week with many eurozone news, just pray it is good then we will see definitely 1.5 again. As long as FED keeps rate below 0.25%, be happy to long euro. With many options play between 1.48-1.53, the price should go around that number until years end.

Just my intuition.
  • #170,754
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:18pm Dec 10, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting Protogenos
averaging down can be a useful tool in the hands of someone experienced, that knows when to add and when to take it off the table. On the other hand, for someone that is inexperienced, it can easily blow an account. Typically this is because people use too high of leverage to begin and don't have reasons for their trades.
A combination of both I suppose. This is the first time averaging down has not turned a loosing trade into a winning trade.

1. The movement was to deep. My 3rd entry was at the last support of 14833 and at the time I didnt see it going below 14800 which over the last couple months has been a major support area, both technically and psychologically.

2. As the price continued to fall, I decided to close the first position and eventually the 2nd so the 3rd trade, equal to the position of the 1st and 2nd trade, would have enough equity to survive a fall to 14625. If it goes back up to 1.5 ill break even and 1.51 will be a 20% profit.

3. This whole thing started as I forgot last friday was NFP and entered a small long at 15060 or so, and as it is difficult for me to use SL (they always get hit then turn around for what would have been a profit) so when I came back a couple hours later this was this gigantic spike down off what was a misreported number of 11k and I expected a sharp rebound off the corrected number.

4. Fundamentally there is, in my inexperienced opinion, no justification for the paper thin dollar to make a come back, further justifying my additional entries.

5. Even after the speech on Tuesday there was a decent move up then back down. Doesn't make any sense to me, technically or fundamentally, other than the possibility of holiday liquidity effects.
  • #170,755
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:18pm Dec 10, 2009 1:18pm
Quoting Munal
History is History!!! What about future?

As with any live chart.... To the left is history, to the right is mystery!
  • #170,756
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:20pm Dec 10, 2009 1:20pm
Quoting harpersindex
a have some longs in play because i know i'm right
Yes sir...ive been scalping to the long side off support althought i kept my great entry of 1.6485 from yesterday.
Going to make it big by age 21.
  • #170,757
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:22pm Dec 10, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting essenza
If i were you, i will put my SL @ 1.46, but right now i will stay put as long as 1.4625 is not intact. Let's see tomorrow where EU close by weekend and next week with many eurozone news, just pray it is good then we will see definitely 1.5 again. As long as FED keeps rate below 0.25%, be happy to long euro. With many options play between 1.48-1.53, the price should go around that number until years end.

Just my intuition.
I suspect with an increase to 0.25% there will be a major move down in the EURUSD right? Wouldn't that be a clear sign of economic recovery?

1.4625 is a 500 pip fall and when I look back, anything that size of movement is a precursor to trend change.
  • #170,758
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:22pm Dec 10, 2009 1:22pm
"This is the first time averaging down has not turned a loosing trade into a winning trade."

you got suckered into using high leverage

Quoting Exsilium
A combination of both I suppose. This is the first time averaging down has not turned a loosing trade into a winning trade.

1. The movement was to deep. My 3rd entry was at the last support of 14833 and at the time I didnt see it going below 14800 which over the last couple months has been a major support area, both technically and psychologically.

2. As the price continued to fall, I decided to close the first position and eventually the 2nd so the 3rd trade, equal to the position of the 1st and 2nd trade, would have enough equity to survive...
  • #170,759
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:22pm Dec 10, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting Exsilium
A combination of both I suppose. This is the first time averaging down has not turned a loosing trade into a winning trade.

1. The movement was to deep. My 3rd entry was at the last support of 14833 and at the time I didnt see it going below 14800 which over the last couple months has been a major support area, both technically and psychologically.

2. As the price continued to fall, I decided to close the first position and eventually the 2nd so the 3rd trade, equal to the position of the 1st and 2nd trade, would have enough equity to survive...
STOP ANALYZING MARKET MOVEMENTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This is why you are where you are now. Trade the damn chart. The chart sells off you sell with it. Dont try and justifiy the news release as bullshit because of your own personal opinion.
Going to make it big by age 21.
  • #170,760
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:22pm Dec 10, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting Exsilium
I think technicall its called counter-hedging... i dont enter trades counter to existing trade, i add to the position as the price moves opposite of the open trade, thereby lowering the average entry point. Doing this I had lowered the average entry from 15060 to 14890 which is more likely to be hit than 15060 enabling me to break even.
good play IMHO. 1.49 is where the possibility retracing point for EU down from 1.514 - 1.466.
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