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Psych Levels, Pivots, and Trendlines - Resurrected

  • #4,681
  • Dec 10, 2009 2:25am Dec 10, 2009 2:25am
Wowee.....a 58 pip 5 min candle right off the LO.....what was in The Brits tea this morning.....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

I was still holding my long when price spiked down to the MS1 triggering my resting buy order, so I rode that high volume ultra wide candle and started exiting around the 275 level.

With this whip-sawing action around so many important levels I've popped a patience pill and will wait for things to settle down......this chop may be a reaction to yesterdays budget speach and todays impending BOE statement.....either way any more trades will be on reduced size....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,682
  • Dec 10, 2009 2:39am Dec 10, 2009 2:39am
Quoting Islander
Wowee.....a 58 pip 5 min candle right off the LO.....what was in The Brits tea this morning.....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif

I was still holding my long when price spiked down to the MS1 triggering my resting buy order, so I rode that high volume ultra wide candle and started exiting around the 275 level....
Hi, could you tell me what MS1 is? Is it the mid pivot support? Thanks.
  • #4,683
  • Dec 10, 2009 3:45am Dec 10, 2009 3:45am
Quoting daffy
Hi, could you tell me what MS1 is? Is it the mid pivot support? Thanks.
Correct - the attached chart shows todays pivots.

The Daily Pivot - magenta - and Days Open Level - orange - are close together and their annotations obscured by the Price Action.

I use the SDX-TzPivots as posted some pages earlier set to the US close at 5pm est as taught by The Dove Alliance.

I've finished for this morning, back for the BOE announcement....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,684
  • Dec 10, 2009 4:03am Dec 10, 2009 4:03am
Quoting Islander
I was still holding my long when price spiked down to the MS1 triggering my resting buy order, so I rode that high volume ultra wide candle and started exiting around the 275 level.
Could you give some insight as to why you had a buy order at this pivot when we have been moving down for some days and any concerted move would have seen this taken out.

Combo of 1 hr lower TL/pivot/bottom of triangle?

Whatever mate that was a stunner trade.
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  • #4,685
  • Dec 10, 2009 7:56am Dec 10, 2009 7:56am
Quoting Vantage
Could you give some insight as to why you had a buy order at this pivot when we have been moving down for some days and any concerted move would have seen this taken out.

Combo of 1 hr lower TL/pivot/bottom of triangle?

Whatever mate that was a stunner trade.
LOL - agreed, that was a real cracker of a trade and re-enforces my current idea of having limit orders close to key levels - especially the pivots which cable is currently respecting rather well http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif


Your own chart answers your question.....yes, we are in a daily downtrend and yesterday arrived in a major support area....the Weekly and Monthly pivots that you show, prior daily supprt, up TL AND the daily fib 61.8% retrace at 6147.

Then there was the PA yesterday - the spike low just after FO into the support area was quickly bought for a 185 pip rally which the US guys promptly sold down to a Higher Low retested 3 hours later to make a nice double bottom. After their lunch the US guys took it back northwards to close their session in the middle of the days range.

The recent Asian Sessions have been fairly flat in a 50, max 100 pp range and I've been setting limit orders at the extremes......and last night I used the MR1 and MS1 levels as they formed a range in line with the above.....and they both got hit....http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

The daily down move is rather choppy and IMO a "concerted down move" during Frankies Hour was not likely and I was a ready buyer at MS1 for another Higher Low and I would also have bought at the strong confluence of yesterday low, S1 and the 6150 level.

I hope this helps

Cheers

Islander
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,686
  • Dec 10, 2009 8:11am Dec 10, 2009 8:11am
Quoting Islander
LOL - agreed, that was a real cracker of a trade and re-enforces my current idea of having limit orders close to key levels - especially the pivots which cable is currently respecting rather well http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif


Your own chart answers your question.....yes, we are in a daily downtrend and yesterday arrived in a major support area....the Weekly and Monthly pivots that you show, prior daily supprt, up TL AND the daily fib 61.8% retrace at 6147.

Then there was the PA yesterday - the spike...
Thks v much. Your comments on Asian session range are very interesting.

I normally don't try and 'pick' a level to turn until theres been a substantial run, just been burned too many times in the past (although I was probably just a crap trader then). Looking back at this morning I didn't want to sell (15 min vol and divergences didn't agree) but didn't want to buy there either.

My knitting is doing quite well and my head says stick to that whilst getting my head around buying levels in a falling market for example. Its tougher than it looks when your buy was triggered that was a solid red shooting star on one hour. I still have a lot to learn.

Thanks for sharing yet again Islander.
  • #4,687
  • Dec 10, 2009 10:26am Dec 10, 2009 10:26am
Quoting Vantage
Thks v much. Your comments on Asian session range are very interesting.

I normally don't try and 'pick' a level to turn until theres been a substantial run, just been burned too many times in the past (although I was probably just a crap trader then). Looking back at this morning I didn't want to sell (15 min vol and divergences didn't agree) but didn't want to buy there either.

My knitting is doing quite well and my head says stick to that whilst getting my head around buying levels in a falling market for example. Its tougher than it looks...
IMO you're mixing up too many time frames.....if you are trading the hourly, its very different to trading the 15 min...and the same for the 5 min.

I look at the hourly when I first get to my 'puter - just to remind myself of a bigger picture and confirm any S/R and larger TF TLs. I dont look at it again unless I'm working up some longer term analysis.

I have one montor with the 15 min charts open - remember that I'm also watching € and Swissy - this TF allows me to check the past 24 hours action at a glance - I only have the 100s and 50s on these charts.

My main monitor - again with the same 3 pairs open - is for the 5 min and here I have the daily pivots, 30 ema, EMAAngle and volume.

My last monitor has the 1 min chart open, set up similarly to my 5 min.

Thus for my limited session day trading I'll be watching the action on the 5 min and 1 min.

Whilst I was lucky to get a buy right off the MS2 level - that's where limits help http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif - there was a clear HL on the 5 min chart with a red hammer and buying the breakout of the top of that hammer was at 6333 or 20 pips higher than MS1, but still good for 100+ pips!

Also, there was bullish divergence on the 15m.

My jury is out on volume......we know that the Asian Session usually has low volume, so I expect a pick up from FO onwards and I like seeing the cumulative volumes shown by market profile.....but I'm not so good at interperating individual bars...

Just my personal views......
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,688
  • Dec 10, 2009 7:00pm Dec 10, 2009 7:00pm
What are you guys using to draw your pivots?

I tried FXIPviots.ex4 from thefxpivotpoint.com but I got a lot of garbage instead of a download
Thanks!
  • #4,689
  • Dec 10, 2009 7:08pm Dec 10, 2009 7:08pm
I'm pretty sure most use the SDX-TzPivots indicator, I know Islander said he did in post #4683 and vantage I think has it on his charts too, not sure what EV uses.You can find SDX-TzPivots in the attachments for the thread. Hope that helps.

trublu
  • #4,690
  • Dec 10, 2009 8:10pm Dec 10, 2009 8:10pm
Perfect, thanks.
  • #4,691
  • Edited 1:18am Dec 11, 2009 12:20am | Edited 1:18am
Quoting Islander
IMO you're mixing up too many time frames.....if you are trading the hourly, its very different to trading the 15 min...and the same for the 5 min.

I look at the hourly when I first get to my 'puter - just to remind myself of a bigger picture and confirm any S/R and larger TF TLs. I dont look at it again unless I'm working up some longer term analysis.

I have one montor with the 15 min charts open - remember that I'm also watching € and Swissy - this TF allows me to check the past 24 hours action at a glance - I only have the 100s and 50s...
My D charts are for bigger pic and I only have TL's on. Just trying to look at candle closes and have an idea for target areas ie proven turn points etc. If around 50% of time pa will follow previous day thats good odds to start with. Ditto 4hr which has TL's and W/M pivots.

My 1hr is main chart to look for set ups ie above/below 21 ema and if counter to this a good 1 hr reversal candle which often sets up a nice hl/lh on 5 min.

I do look at candles and vol on 15 min this has kept me out of a number of losing trades where this info contradicting 5 min. Also 15 min divergence on rsi.

5 min standard hl/lh entries.

1 min re-entries off key levels in established trend ie if up and price pulls back to say even number stays above and pushes on. If price has moved far 100 pips+ then I try buying key levels round numbers and W/M pivots.

For the life of me I cannot get right your methods to have so many reversal buys of direction in a session!!
  • #4,692
  • Dec 11, 2009 12:21am Dec 11, 2009 12:21am
Quoting Bluehills
What are you guys using to draw your pivots?

I tried FXIPviots.ex4 from thefxpivotpoint.com but I got a lot of garbage instead of a download
Thanks!
We use pivots indi also attached above can add prev days high/low, some fibs of y's range and a few other bits.
  • #4,693
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:13am Dec 11, 2009 1:13am
GM - I'm glad I was not awake for that very slow Asian Session.

I took the buy off the HL / 30 ema half an hour before FO and banked a few pips as it failed to breakout and made a LH......I waited and then sold after the mini bounce put in another LH and have just exited at the DAys Open level of 6275.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,694
  • Edited 2:16am Dec 11, 2009 1:17am | Edited 2:16am
On a clear upper TL on 4hr and W and M pivots. 15 min shows rsi divergence and vol increasing on the shooting star we sold move below and exited on 6275 holding for +33.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,695
  • Dec 11, 2009 1:48am Dec 11, 2009 1:48am
The break out should be good......
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dec 11 cable 15m fo plus 30m.gif Size: 24 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,696
  • Dec 11, 2009 2:09am Dec 11, 2009 2:09am
Long off HL at LO.....

LOL V - I do understand - taking reversals off the 1 min chart IS VERY difficult and somethimes my tight stops get hit....BUT then there are other times when it takes off and you pirate a bucket load of pips....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,697
  • Dec 11, 2009 2:12am Dec 11, 2009 2:12am
Quoting Islander
Long off HL at LO.....

LOL V - I do understand - taking reversals off the 1 min chart IS VERY difficult and somethimes my tight stops get hit....BUT then there are other times when it takes off and you pirate a bucket load of pips....
I banked some profits at the MR1 level of 6310, holding the remainder to see IF we get a breakout.....so far € and Swissy are NOT supporting one.....TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,698
  • Dec 11, 2009 5:21am Dec 11, 2009 5:21am
Quoting Islander
I banked some profits at the MR1 level of 6310, holding the remainder to see IF we get a breakout.....so far € and Swissy are NOT supporting one.....TWT
A little stop hunting fakeout and I closed out before the news....then a LH at the 6325 level which I sold and banked a few more pips before going out.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,699
  • Dec 11, 2009 7:36am Dec 11, 2009 7:36am
Just what the doctor ordered - data out of line with expectations...

2009.12.11 13:30:12 =DATA SNAP: US Nov Retail Sales Unexpectedly Surge


that pushed the dollar up and I sold cable immediatly. exiting at the DP level. Those extra pips gave me my daily target and as I'm also well over my weekly one too, I'm finished for the week.....hope everyone has a good weekend....BFN
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #4,700
  • Dec 14, 2009 12:24am Dec 14, 2009 12:24am
Could be a very interesting day today. Will $10 billion help to Dubai World change $ strength. 3 D doji's in a row.

It will be interesting to see where London takes us.
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