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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #4,361
  • Dec 9, 2009 5:54pm Dec 9, 2009 5:54pm
The thing is, how do you trade it!
Keep smiling
  • #4,362
  • Dec 9, 2009 6:02pm Dec 9, 2009 6:02pm
At the 61.8 retrace, that was previous support, broken, dropped down then back up to it. Now this is hindsight trading so don't punish me but I would have sold there as I would expect bigger market players to enter the market at that level.

I know there is the 100 or 0 break but not so keen on breakouts myself, I prefer break, retest then enter.

I also like whiskey, cheers!
Keep smiling
  • #4,363
  • Dec 9, 2009 6:08pm Dec 9, 2009 6:08pm
We must be on the right track. How to trade it ? Good question. If the fib is correct, then trading the break to 138.2 might be one way to do it. If one has the attribute patience, then perhaps waiting for a pullback after break to enter is not a bad idea. However, that is phase 2 for me. Haven't thought about how to yet. I'm using Trade Simulator and back testing again.
I googled Mark King. I remember seeing a video of him doing a bass solo at one of their concert. Awesome ...
  • #4,364
  • Dec 9, 2009 6:14pm Dec 9, 2009 6:14pm
Well Skong, I'd say the first test was a success. Midnight here in the uk so off to bed. Maybe you can post me a naked chart and I'll post my take on it tomorrow.

Mark King is a fantastic bass player and I was a big Level 42 fan back in the 80's (still am). My kids tell me it's sh1t though! Still Santa wont be visiting them this year

Good night all.
Keep smiling
  • #4,365
  • Dec 9, 2009 6:17pm Dec 9, 2009 6:17pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Capital! Yes. There are more then one way to fib and many fibs can exist in the same space without invalidating eachother the most important thing is to know that your fib is working and will reach target.

It may not be the turn in price, but winning is the only thing that matters.

TK
...the most important thing is to know that your fib is working and will reach target ....

That's what I'm working towards.
  • #4,366
  • Dec 9, 2009 6:30pm Dec 9, 2009 6:30pm
Quoting Misterdaz
The thing is, how do you trade it!

Trading is individual, but first per Skunny we wait for the pierce of the signal line. Then trading starts. I recommend only taking trades in the direction of the fib after that for simplicity sake, but tool around and have fun.

In this fib, when price breaks above the 61.8 with no pierce. Well that is nice too because it lets you know to look the other way as that percieved short move is incorrect per 61.8

TK
  • #4,367
  • Dec 9, 2009 7:53pm Dec 9, 2009 7:53pm
Quoting skong
What a jolly good idea. I hope you didn't slip and made gravity work extra hard while hanging yer telly on the wall!!!
I await your chart.
PS Are you in a band ?
OK a question for anyone....Is the highest probable trade in your opinion from the break of the zero or 100% line to the 138% line, and not at the retracement point 38.2% or 61.8%?
(Although the risk/reward is better at the 38.2% or 61.8% retracement point)


Thanks

HR
  • #4,368
  • Dec 9, 2009 8:59pm Dec 9, 2009 8:59pm
Quoting highroller
OK a question for anyone....Is the highest probable trade in your opinion from the break of the zero or 100% line to the 138% line, and not at the retracement point 38.2% or 61.8%?
(Although the risk/reward is better at the 38.2% or 61.8% retracement point)


Thanks

HR

If your fib is right once it breaks you are going to win. I suppose i do not understand the question? You can take the trade earlier without the break but you are gambling. Also I think we should take risk reward off of the talking table since it clouds the issue. Discern how this works, then how you might trade it, then worry about risk reward.

I suspect if you comprehend this you will look at risk reward differently.



TK
  • #4,369
  • Dec 9, 2009 9:09pm Dec 9, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting ThomKnight
If your fib is right once it breaks you are going to win. I suppose i do not understand the question? You can take the trade earlier without the break but you are gambling. Also I think we should take risk reward off of the talking table since it clouds the issue. Discern how this works, then how you might trade it, then worry about risk reward.

I suspect if you comprehend this you will look at risk reward differently.

TK
Thanks Thom,

Great answer, so with correct fib placement your risk/reward becomes
irrellevant due to the high % of trades that you win.


Cheers

HR
  • #4,370
  • Dec 9, 2009 9:46pm Dec 9, 2009 9:46pm
Quoting highroller
Thanks Thom,

Great answer, so with correct fib placement your risk/reward becomes
irrellevant due to the high % of trades that you win.


Cheers

HR
I will go along with that, but that means nothing unles you know what you are doing. What do your charts look like? I and game to stick around for some warm brown if we can actually get charts and logical discussion going.

TK
  • #4,371
  • Dec 9, 2009 10:41pm Dec 9, 2009 10:41pm
Quoting ThomKnight
I will go along with that, but that means nothing unles you know what you are doing. What do your charts look like? I and game to stick around for some warm brown if we can actually get charts and logical discussion going.

TK
TK,
This one's got me stumped.
Appreciate your thoughts on this.

Cheers
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  • #4,372
  • Dec 10, 2009 12:15am Dec 10, 2009 12:15am
Quoting skong
TK,
This one's got me stumped.
Appreciate your thoughts on this.

Cheers
hey skong,

hope you don't mind me adding my 10 cents worth...what do you think about my shot at your problem?

Cheers

HR
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  • #4,373
  • Dec 10, 2009 12:46am Dec 10, 2009 12:46am
Quoting skong
TK,
This one's got me stumped.
Appreciate your thoughts on this.

Cheers
Not all trades go to plan, but you should note that Skunny said observe what happens when the 138 Fib is not reached ... ?

So when it reverses, what levels are usually hit ?
  • #4,374
  • Dec 10, 2009 12:52am Dec 10, 2009 12:52am
Quoting highroller
hey skong,

hope you don't mind me adding my 10 cents worth...what do you think about my shot at your problem?

Cheers

HR
I don't mind at all. I see - 1.618 ext.
The creator of this unconventional approach works around the 1.382 ext.

Cheers
  • #4,375
  • Dec 10, 2009 12:57am Dec 10, 2009 12:57am
Quoting FX Compass
Not all trades go to plan, but you should note that Skunny said observe what happens when the 138 Fib is not reached ... ?

So when it reverses, what levels are usually hit ?
From what I've been able to deduce, it can head for the 138.2 ext at the other end.

I am also keen to hear grkbears take on as to why the 138.2 was not hit in the example he posted re : the AUD chart.
  • #4,376
  • Dec 10, 2009 1:23am Dec 10, 2009 1:23am
Look closer to home than the -138.2.

In this instance the reversal went from the -123.6 fib to which level ?

Now look back and see when this happens, where it ends up each time.
  • #4,377
  • Dec 10, 2009 2:03am Dec 10, 2009 2:03am
Quoting FX Compass
Look closer to home than the -138.2.

In this instance the reversal went from the -123.6 fib to which level ?

Now look back and see when this happens, where it ends up each time.
Ping Pong between 0 and 123.6 before heading North ?
  • #4,378
  • Dec 10, 2009 2:05am Dec 10, 2009 2:05am
Quoting Misterdaz
Well Skong, I'd say the first test was a success. Midnight here in the uk so off to bed. Maybe you can post me a naked chart and I'll post my take on it tomorrow.

Mark King is a fantastic bass player and I was a big Level 42 fan back in the 80's (still am). My kids tell me it's sh1t though! Still Santa wont be visiting them this year

Good night all.
My kids reckon my choices of songs are boring. How dare they, eh! lol.
Added 1 more fib for tracking price.
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  • #4,379
  • Dec 10, 2009 2:26am Dec 10, 2009 2:26am
Maybe...
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #4,380
  • Dec 10, 2009 2:27am Dec 10, 2009 2:27am
Quoting skong
Ping Pong between 0 and 123.6 before heading North ?
Ok.

Firstly plot your Fib across one candle only (refer to Skunnys Posts) on a daily chart.

Now if you move to hourly chart your fibs are there.

Now see how the price failed to reach your target.

However upon reversal through 23.6 Fib, 50 Fib gets hit.

How many times does this happen ?

Hope this helps >>>>
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