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  • #169,021
  • Dec 5, 2009 11:24am Dec 5, 2009 11:24am
Long entered before weekend at 1.4833, TP at 1.5002.

anyone with me?
Trade what you see. Write what you feel
  • #169,022
  • Dec 5, 2009 11:47am Dec 5, 2009 11:47am
Quoting Artcritique
#4??
If thats the case then here is the possible for next week. Lets see where C ends...somewhere around 1.5000-1.5080

Quoting e_piz
Long entered before weekend at 1.4833, TP at 1.5002.

anyone with me?
Yup. Long at 1.4830 SL 1.4800 Target 1.5000
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Going to make it big by age 21.
  • #169,023
  • Dec 5, 2009 12:24pm Dec 5, 2009 12:24pm
Quoting dstryr
im still learning . Wave count might be wrong but it made me money . Get on skype and show me.
EW can only be applied after the trend is complete...I think thats pretty clear.

I'll never place a trade based on wave theory ever because the market can literally go any where. EW is just hypothetical...
  • #169,024
  • Dec 5, 2009 12:36pm Dec 5, 2009 12:36pm
Quoting Artcritique
If the wheels stay on the market's cart, that would be the classic pattern.
Followed eventually, by a rebound upwards through our recent top towards it's present fair value which I calculate to be about $5500. The latest top should actually have been about $1300 in a classic assending wedge formation, but something seems to have killed it or spooked the market??

FV to be about $5500? do you realize what levels inflation would have to be at those levels?
  • #169,025
  • Dec 5, 2009 12:50pm Dec 5, 2009 12:50pm
Quoting dstryr
If thats the case then here is the possible for next week. Lets see where C ends...somewhere around 1.5000-1.5080


Yup. Long at 1.4830 SL 1.4800 Target 1.5000
I'm long too, but SL at 1.4785, where my daily trendline is. I'm a little worried that the US carry trade may unwind, though I have no indication of how far that would be. Could be 200 pips or 2000, so if I'm stopped out I may sit on the sidelines until a new range is established. Big move that started in July 2008 is what killed me last time, so I'm leary of a major turning point in sentiment.
  • #169,026
  • Dec 5, 2009 12:59pm Dec 5, 2009 12:59pm
Im targeting 1.4765 for shorts. The daily closed below 50sma for the first time in a while, but this could and most likely have been to take out DTN Options at 4850. However, this is a very strong dollar move that should rise concern for bulls. I'll only be long if price gets to the bottom of this channel which I think it will next week before thusday.
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  • #169,027
  • Dec 5, 2009 1:01pm Dec 5, 2009 1:01pm
Quoting mfoste1
FV to be about $5500? do you realize what levels inflation would have to be at those levels?

Inflation doesn't have to be as high as the moon to have $5000 an oz gold.
Gold still follows the laws of supply and demand. Every year less gold is pulled from the earth and now we have Countries like India buying 200 tonnes of gold last month and over the past six years, China has almost doubled its holdings in gold to 1,054 tons.

Seems like there's a high demand and declining supply.
I'm just saying

http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/10/21/gold-report/

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125722876971624729.html

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1259564400.php
  • #169,028
  • Dec 5, 2009 1:10pm Dec 5, 2009 1:10pm
Quoting Evilgoat
Inflation doesn't have to be as high as the moon to have $5000 an oz gold.
Gold still follows the laws of supply and demand. Every year less gold is pulled from the earth and now we have Countries like India buying 200 tonnes of gold last month and over the past six years, China has almost doubled its holdings in gold to 1,054 tons.

Seems like there's a high demand and declining supply.
I'm just saying

http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/10/21/gold-report/

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125722876971624729.html

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1259564400.php...
Those are very good articles. I was just saying that If XAU were at $5k now, inflation in the U.S. would be rather high, something the economy couldnt handle...
  • #169,029
  • Dec 5, 2009 1:12pm Dec 5, 2009 1:12pm
Until we have a daily below the lower TL, this is still my trading plan for the weeks ahead. The below is only part of my technical outlook, but it shows my reading of the current market in broad terms.
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  • #169,030
  • Dec 5, 2009 1:17pm Dec 5, 2009 1:17pm
Last week everybody got excited about going long at 1.50xx, then surely 1.485 is a no brainer to add to longs. Until we have a confirmed technical reversal of the current trend I will continue to buy on dips. One slight increase in unemployment on a friday is not going to reverse this strong trend. Of course if BB and Trichet really are going to put their foot in it and the BOJ is going to increase interest rate, coupled with an inkling of increase from ECB or even a confirmed deflation within the eurozone, then I could, if confirmed in the charts see a reversal..... Lots of ifs... can think of lots more ifs that are needed to turn this bull train around, firstly the brakes need to be applied and nobody has found the brake pedal yet on this train....


My 2c, please feel free to disagree.
  • #169,031
  • Dec 5, 2009 1:52pm Dec 5, 2009 1:52pm
Good, data means strong dollar, and gains in stocks same time, even if fed increases rates which is being indicated and fall in commodities that is how it should be, we should stop propping up bankrupt middle east.
  • #169,032
  • Dec 5, 2009 2:10pm Dec 5, 2009 2:10pm
Quoting mfoste1
Those are very good articles. I was just saying that If XAU were at $5k now, inflation in the U.S. would be rather high, something the economy couldnt handle...

Agreed
gold at 5k isn't going to happen in the next 5-10 years even. IMO
  • #169,033
  • Edited 2:27pm Dec 5, 2009 2:14pm | Edited 2:27pm
Quoting Evilgoat
Agreed
gold at 5k isn't going to happen in the next 5-10 years even. IMO

definetly dude...ppl that say that are dreaming...to me that claim seems very outrageous umm like armageddon. I dont trade gold though, a bit too volitile for me. When I see a mentionable pull back, I may buy some for a long term investment...
  • #169,034
  • Dec 5, 2009 2:30pm Dec 5, 2009 2:30pm
Just beware that last week price didn't drop below the 200 EMA...

Quoting cloggie
Last week everybody got excited about going long at 1.50xx, then surely 1.485 is a no brainer to add to longs. Until we have a confirmed technical reversal of the current trend I will continue to buy on dips. One slight increase in unemployment on a friday is not going to reverse this strong trend. Of course if BB and Trichet really are going to put their foot in it and the BOJ is going to increase interest rate, coupled with an inkling of increase from ECB or even a confirmed deflation within the eurozone, then I could, if confirmed in the charts...
In Charts We Trust!
  • #169,035
  • Dec 5, 2009 2:38pm Dec 5, 2009 2:38pm
Tell me about it....not only did it snow here in Texas, but it snowed heavily! WTF!

Quoting Pip Farmer
Global warming- bring it on cause I am bl**dy freezing
In Charts We Trust!
  • #169,036
  • Dec 5, 2009 2:46pm Dec 5, 2009 2:46pm
Just kicking around some ideas my view is bearish so I'm looking to short around 1.4950 area
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  • #169,037
  • Dec 5, 2009 2:53pm Dec 5, 2009 2:53pm
Quoting cloggie
Last week everybody got excited about going long at 1.50xx, then surely 1.485 is a no brainer to add to longs. Until we have a confirmed technical reversal of the current trend I will continue to buy on dips. One slight increase in unemployment on a friday is not going to reverse this strong trend. Of course if BB and Trichet really are going to put their foot in it and the BOJ is going to increase interest rate, coupled with an inkling of increase from ECB or even a confirmed deflation within the eurozone, then I could, if confirmed in the charts...
Cloggie..BOJ has been thinking of intervening b/c the Yen is too high, so they are going to raise rates?
And if they did, the $ would be the lowest yielder of them all, so that would tend to change the trend as the $ would strengthen?
Oh, and if ECB is hawkish that would make the EURUSD go down? OK I think I got it now.
  • #169,038
  • Dec 5, 2009 3:04pm Dec 5, 2009 3:04pm
Quoting wwwin
OK I think I got it now.
Yes you did....
  • #169,039
  • Dec 5, 2009 3:41pm Dec 5, 2009 3:41pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...WereAQ0M&pos=3

"Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil prices are in “the right range” and there is no need to reduce inventories, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said ahead of an OPEC meeting scheduled for later this month."

“Inventories are coming down, the price is perfect, and all investors, consumers, producers -- they’re all very happy,” Al-Naimi said today in Cairo, where Arab oil ministers are holding an annual meeting."

“The market is stable right now, volatility is at minimum, everybody is happy with the price, it is in the right range,” al-Naimi said. “There is nothing to worry about.”

"Oil prices have risen 69 percent this year, recovering from a low of $32.40 a barrel in December 2008. OPEC announced that month a record production cut as demand around the world crumpled, and kept quotas unchanged at three subsequent meetings this year."


....hmm, this sounds like a green light for some oil price deflation to me. First Gold then Oil?
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #169,040
  • Dec 5, 2009 4:17pm Dec 5, 2009 4:17pm
Quoting X.Oden
Tell me about it....not only did it snow here in Texas, but it snowed heavily! WTF!
Yeah, I'm in Houston and we actually got a slight dusting on the ground. People were freaking out and leaving work early. It was too funny
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