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  • #168,921
  • Dec 4, 2009 12:38pm Dec 4, 2009 12:38pm
Quoting Xaron
You're right. I'm amazed as well. We still have job losses and people think it's over. The numbers are faked as usual. Come on, from 10.2% to 10.0%? No way without some fancy calculation.

The FED won't hike anytime soon. As soon as the dust settles and people look behind the numbers, well... < place your favourite direction here > ...
yeah but in Germany it was the same 7 thousand jobs lost yet unemployment rate went down. 7,000 in Germany is more than 11,000 in America, proportionaly.
  • #168,922
  • Dec 4, 2009 12:42pm Dec 4, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting lloydblankfe
yeah but in Germany it was the same 7 thousand jobs lost yet unemployment rate went down. 7,000 in Germany is more than 11,000 in America, proportionaly.
I did not say that we don't use tricks here in Germany.
  • #168,923
  • Dec 4, 2009 12:48pm Dec 4, 2009 12:48pm
Quoting tonyo524
Well it's the end of the trading day, and a lot of traders have their panties all up in a bunch. I can tell you this. When I used to trade the beast (GBP/YEN) a 400 pip move in one direction per day was the norm. I moved over to EU because it trended much better. This 250 pip drop is really a non event compared to the markets a few years ago. We just all got to relaxed.
huh? how long? maybe in a good week.. a real good week
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #168,924
  • Dec 4, 2009 12:50pm Dec 4, 2009 12:50pm
That looks like the first bull candle forming on H1 since our retrace.
  • #168,925
  • Dec 4, 2009 12:53pm Dec 4, 2009 12:53pm
FED job statistics are complete BS. They don't count people that are still unemployed and their unemployment benefits have expired. Basically they call them “discouraged workers” and don't count them. Guess what, bulk of layoffs that occurred in early 2008 are becoming “discouraged workers” hence overnight 0.2% unemployment decrease.
  • #168,926
  • Dec 4, 2009 12:57pm Dec 4, 2009 12:57pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi nAVIN2007, what do you think of my chart that I just posted here?

looks good but i dont have the knowledge to count waves
  • #168,927
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:03pm Dec 4, 2009 1:03pm
Quoting mfoste1
thanks much gator, i think im gonna book half. For the rest im looking for 1.4777-65 area target. If we close below the 100sma i think thats a pretty bearish signal imho...
hmmm well usdx hasnt had a daily close above 55 ema since april. but it may do it today. the talk now is a possible hike in april.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #168,928
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:06pm Dec 4, 2009 1:06pm
Quoting skozyuk
FED job statistics are complete BS. They don't count people that are still unemployed and their unemployment benefits have expired. Basically they call them “discouraged workers” and don't count them. Guess what, bulk of layoffs that occurred in early 2008 are becoming “discouraged workers” hence overnight 0.2% unemployment decrease.
*L* they never have.. why would they start now?
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #168,929
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:07pm Dec 4, 2009 1:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
huh? how long? maybe in a good week.. a real good week

Jan 16 2008 over 200 pips Jan 18 2008 over 200 pips Dec 14 2007 over 200 pips Nov 20 2007 over 200 pips

We have just gotten used to the new tide, but remember how it was. Gator I know you know, I remember speaking to you way back when LOL.
All that is left in FF is just plain garbage. "Cloggie"
  • #168,930
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:09pm Dec 4, 2009 1:09pm
Quoting skozyuk
FED job statistics are complete BS. They don't count people that are still unemployed and their unemployment benefits have expired. Basically they call them “discouraged workers” and don't count them. Guess what, bulk of layoffs that occurred in early 2008 are becoming “discouraged workers” hence overnight 0.2% unemployment decrease.
I don't think even the DOW believes the numbers from the reaction.
  • #168,931
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:09pm Dec 4, 2009 1:09pm
Quoting tonyo524
Jan 16 2008 over 200 pips Jan 18 2008 over 200 pips Dec 14 2007 over 200 pips Nov 20 2007 over 200 pips

We have just gotten used to the new tide, but remember how it was. Gator I know you know, I remember speaking to you way back when LOL.
yeah dow 14k changes a lot of things.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #168,932
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:10pm Dec 4, 2009 1:10pm
I hope everyone had a good trading day, have a great weekend see you sunday night!
  • #168,933
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:12pm Dec 4, 2009 1:12pm
Quoting gatorinla
hmmm well usdx hasnt had a daily close above 55 ema since april. but it may do it today. the talk now is a possible hike in april.
If fed does not raise rates first then we will see a replay of 2008.
Trichet and his ECB friends will excarbate the problem of inflation, this is a fact. Send dollar lower and therefore oil higher I am not rulling out 100 dollars. It is winter season and oil is at 75 so i don't rule out 82-5 next summer.

Euro area only cares about keeping currency strong, they raised rates in 2000 to help Euro when unemployment was 9 percent, and there were trade deficits, only when Greenspan lowered rates did Euro go higher.

Its good that eurusd responds more to American data than European, shows more belief in America and less in Europe.
  • #168,934
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:13pm Dec 4, 2009 1:13pm
i recall last time unemployment was this high a certain president wanting to include the military in the count. lets c military has 100% employment... damn that helps the numbers.. obama should do this. *L*
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #168,935
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:14pm Dec 4, 2009 1:14pm
Quoting gatorinla
if anyone reconises this shape. ive been watching it for a while now. we had one just about the same image on the eu 2008/2009..only this one is much bigger. W...

good luck
good job , they are pretty much the same , do you mean we are reversing from here?
  • #168,936
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:22pm Dec 4, 2009 1:22pm
Less unemployed also means, smaller deficit and therefore usd positive, however negative from trade prospective.
  • #168,937
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:25pm Dec 4, 2009 1:25pm
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=166918
  • #168,938
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:31pm Dec 4, 2009 1:31pm
Quoting jacksonfx
long at 1.4850 SL 1.4800 TP 1.4900
my system told to close before end of today so I closed it at 1.4852
  • #168,939
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:33pm Dec 4, 2009 1:33pm
Quoting shahab8b
good job , they are pretty much the same , do you mean we are reversing from here?
nope... but dont be surprised if we do.. its not a measuring contest. all i can do is show it. its gonna do what it wants with me or without me. i was just showing a long time support trendline. a little older then the march one. but you could easily find another even older to void it. but if it does. move could be slightly below 80 or much higher.
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #168,940
  • Dec 4, 2009 1:43pm Dec 4, 2009 1:43pm
Bouncing at 50 DAY EMA which has held up since July. I would say only a weekley close below this will reverse the trend.
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