USD/JPY Discussion

As what I have said before USD-YEN has spiked few hundred pips

By end of next week, 92.30 will be tested.

By end of Dec, we should see USD-YEN at around 95 level

hello guys i sold usdyen at 89 what u think traders shall i do? plz i need a quick answer

http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

What a beatdown!

What a beautifull scene!

Hey traders, wish you happy and funny weekend, see you on monday!

The price action on USD/JPY has been crazy over the past two weeks. What do you think about it retracing back to 88.775 or so on Monday?

USD-YEN should gap up on monday morning....

Good Luck to all shortist

I am biased towards the upside- TP 93.80. There is speculation that the japanese are going to implement yet another stimulus (the same size as last week's) which should be negative for their currency. I don't believe in the "Santa Claus rally" in equities. If stocks go down, USD should be well supported since there will be some short-covering after such a multi-month carry-trade cycle funded with cheap USD. Even if stocks go up, the yen seems more appropriate to be used as a "funding currency" now because since last week it became cheaper to borrow yen than dollars. Moreover, there is this speculation that the Fed is raising interest rates sooner than expected. The only thing that bothers me a little is Bernanke's speech next week, I guess he will reiterate the Fed's stance about keeping interest rates at low levels for an extended period of time. Yet I think that there is good chance for USD rally against the yen. Does anybody see anything wrong with my analysis? Any feedback will be appreciated!

open/close and high/low range decreased but volume was still rising as price closed upwards Thursday. could this explain why Friday's range was so large? does a tightening range with increased volume mean price is more likely to explode? At this point I can see this moving more to the upside. Could see 93 by the end of next week I think.

we are definitely going up. we have broke two negative trend lines. the next level of major resistance is at the third line at the top at 94.

There will be some stalling at 92. there is strong resistance there. It wouldn't surprise me if there was a pullback at that point.

Just close ur account and run for ur life

End of Dec 2009 - USD-yen to reach 95

March 2010 - 100

End of 2010 - 120

Why close it? Very often I go against the trend and still make a nice profit. It's how You manage your trades.
Looks more bullish than bearish but for now I'll wait for a better set up on my charts.

I have little confused with USDJPY movement..usually all usd pairs move in same direction, but USDJPY move in opposite side..any ideas?

something my friend forwarded me ... about gold ... but thought was relevant as an alternative view ....

Dear Jim,

Since the actual carry trade on the dollar determines a "Synthetic Short" on the US dollar, then it is fair to assume that as soon as interest rates, for any reason, start to rise shorts will be closed and the dollar sustained and propped up.

Isn't that going to put big downward pressure on Gold?

Could you kindly also let us know, in your view, what is going to be Gold's biggest threat?

Regards,
CIGA Francesco

Dear CIGA Francesco,

This is a popular concept that needs explanation.

1. The size of the carry trade cannot be known. There are no reliable sources of information by which you can validate statements such as "The Mother of All Carry Trades," made by popular academics. What passes through Libor and what any source of dollar lending does lies in a non transparent private treaty market. None of this in terms of a meaningful percentage can be gauged by reviewing COT (Commitment of Traders) data.

You can therefore assume that any source that says they can size the carry trade is full of bull.

2. The carry trade is not an all on or off arena. Some will close their positions but others convinced that rates will remain relatively low for a period of time will enter transactions. Most commentators refer to the carry trade as if it was a singular large bull elephant that enters and exits certain trades, bashing and breaking everything in sight.

As an example, on Friday some may have closed carry trade positions while other would have seen it as a point of entrance.

3. Those that participate in the carry trade are well financed (at least at the start) and generally of above average market intelligence. Commentators again see the carry trade as a static long of an asset and short a currency. That is so far from the truth that it is actually STUPID. I am sure some carry traders were sellers as gold approached $1224 and will be again at $1274-$1278.

4. Once getting a lead (profit) in the transaction a wise carry trader will see to hedging the currency and interest cost risks.

5. Much of the carry trade today is done as an OTC derivative transaction in legs (positions) or in whole or combinations thereof.

6. The major factor of the carry trade is that the currency of choice should have negative fundaments and a RELATIVE low interest cost. Note the word RELATIVE. That means if rates begin to rise, the short term interest rate should rise so as to maintain the state of RELATIVE low interest rates for the carry currency in comparison to other currencies.

7. Remember even then the carry trade is not one enormous trader, it is many traders, some entering and others exiting.

To make the statement "synthetic dollar short," it carries a connotation of a singular unit, unhedged and never changing, that will at some point attempt a singular exit. That simply is not the truth of the matter.

The carry trade is destined to go for years in the US dollar with periods when their will be large positions and at other times smaller positions.

Those who think differently should review the years of carry experience in the Japanese Yen. Recognize that the policies of the US Fed and Treasury are a mirror image of what resulted there for many years
In conclusion, the concept "Synthetic Dollar Short" is glib when describing the carry trade and therefore an unknowable factor by which to trade gold.

Trading gold, which is insurance against the effects of depraved economics, is the proper understanding of what gold is as a currency. Few if any will do as well as those reading here that entered gold under $300 and still maintain that position.

I will advise taking the cost of your position out between gold at $1580 and $1620, letting the balance of your position ride as the price shows its intention of reaching Alf and Martin's numbers.

Respectfully yours,
Jim

...does not look like this bullish move wants to continue today so far. Maybe some decent shorts on the 15min.

my thoughts too for the immediate short term .

I'm still in short position.

I would say be careful now...looks like demand increased to the bullish side on the 4hr...maybe trying 90.15

ok , got the 20 pips scalping on the demo

Done 60 pips from 90.02 today, and looking at the 1 hr chart its got another 100 pips to go to close that gap up at some point

...climbed in short at 89.43, looks to me like there is some bearish demand on the 4hr at this point