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The DIBS Method... No Free Lunch continues

  • #8,961
  • Dec 3, 2009 3:43am Dec 3, 2009 3:43am
Quoting Sauron
You don't enter after the signal but you wait till the trade loses or reaches BE or 1:1 or how you want to call it.
If it loses you do nothing.
It it reaches BE you enter.

The stop loss is the one which you would use if you have entered.
You use the same position size as if you would have won.

So nothing changes, only the enter position.
this is not logical, because your risk will then double, and the reward stays the same. the risk/reward ratio will break down to the half.
but test it yourself and u will realize.
  • #8,962
  • Edited 4:06am Dec 3, 2009 3:44am | Edited 4:06am
This idea will keep you out from 20-30 losses in a row if you trade 2 pairs and you take all the signals. It will also make the equity curve smoother.
It is not a holy grail. If you don't find it usefull don't use it and take all the trades. There are some people here, me included, who like smoother curves, be them of equity or of women.
  • #8,963
  • Edited 5:03am Dec 3, 2009 4:39am | Edited 5:03am
Quoting Sauron
This idea will keep you out from 20-30 losses in a row if you trade 2 pairs and you take all the signals. It will also make the equity curve smoother.
It is not a holy grail. If you don't find it usefull don't use it and take all the trades. There are some people here, me included, who like smoother curves, be them of equity or of women.
i just tested it and the result is what i thought - nothing worth for a trading strategy.

as u would say:
Do NOT come into this thread and tell us something can be done unless you have several years of actual proof and can also prove that those results are typical and not unusual.

but just think again: there are many trades BE (1:1) and then you will get stopped out later. so often you will lose twice the amount of risk compared to the original strategy from PC.

but its great that u brought in some new ideas!
  • #8,964
  • Dec 3, 2009 2:27pm Dec 3, 2009 2:27pm
I am not so sure he or she, is saying they use a stop double the size, maybe they mean the stop size stay's the same, but the actual price it is set at is still relative to the entry they take, and the size of the IB.
Either way, i can sort of understand the rational behind it, if you are thinking that reducing the loosing trades is a good thing, others here just see it as the price of doing business, and every small metered loss will get you closer to your edge taking shape.

in my test's, only 8years of data on some pairs and 4years on others, of those trades that go B.E. only 10 to 14% of them end up running, i might add my definition of running is a trade that keeps going for nearly 200 4hr bars, around a month or so. these teast are not definitive and certainly dont indicate how profitable this method might be, they are just test to give and idea of the number and frequency of trades that get to a point that could be classed as a runner.

cheers
Geoff


Quoting RussiaTrader
i just tested it and the result is what i thought - nothing worth for a trading strategy.

as u would say:
Do NOT come into this thread and tell us something can be done unless you have several years of actual proof and can also prove that those results are typical and not unusual.

but just think again: there are many trades BE (1:1) and then you will get stopped out later. so often you will lose twice the amount of risk compared to the original strategy from PC.

but its great that u brought in some new ideas!
  • #8,965
  • Edited 8:39am Dec 4, 2009 8:19am | Edited 8:39am
Quote
I've tested taking DIBs trades in flat markets and risking 1% per trade and have 'experienced' severe drawdown on account balance
Quote
With the reduction in position sizing, I am trying to find a 'balance' between too low a postion size and too high.
You are on to something now!!! As far a trying to find the correct balance maybe the answer you seek is really not hard to achieve. Start out with smaller position size until you build up some nice closed out profits. Example- Start out at 1/4 units(.25 of 1%) than when your account builds up to 10% in profits start ramping up to 1/2 units. When you build up your account to 20% than scale up to 3/4 units etc,etc. Also when going through a draw down scale down after ever 5 to 10 % draw down...It's not a stationary thing. Not only will this reduce your overall draw downs to manageable level( also making it mentally easier) but the reduction in the Risk to Ruin Matrix goes down to acceptable levels as well. You will find that all money management theory comes from the gaming industry.Something to think about.

Quote
If the entry is "edgeless", why entering all the trades? Wouldn't be better just to wait till a trade reaches its breakeven point and then to enter? Real food for thought to all the "gurus" here who repeat the mantra that lots of losses and a few winnings will make you rich in the long run. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif
An Edge consists of a entry and a exit along with a proper money management scheme. There is no edge on any one component by itself. As far as taking many small losses and letting your winners ride looking for the occasional whale(skewed tail) trade to make you financial well off in time. Name one of the top 50 traders that don't follow this mantra. Paul Tudor Jones, Richard Dennis, Ed Soykata, George Sorros Etc,Etc. Maybe they know something most don't. Of course you could always just go out and buy that new fancy whiz bang indicator the 19 y/o kid is selling on his smart looking website. As far as real food- My family and I eat real well as it is..I'll be out this weekend in the Jersey Shore if anyone wants to hook up and talk reality...
  • #8,966
  • Dec 4, 2009 10:57am Dec 4, 2009 10:57am
Quoting james996
You are on to something now!!! As far a trying to find the correct balance maybe the answer you seek is really not hard to achieve. Start out with smaller position size until you build up some nice closed out profits. Example- Start out at 1/4 units(.25 of 1%) than when your account builds up to 10% in profits start ramping up to 1/2 units. When you build up your account to 20% than scale up to 3/4 units etc,etc. Also when going through a draw down scale down after ever 5 to 10 % draw down...It's not a stationary thing. Not only will this reduce...
Thanks James996.

So try a dynamic position sizing strategy rather than a fixed percentage? Increasing the percentage of risk as balance grows and vice versa as balance declines as opposed to staying with the same percentage throughout? I'll look into that and money management theory further.



- TTP -
  • #8,967
  • Dec 5, 2009 2:05am Dec 5, 2009 2:05am
Quoting james996
As far as taking many small losses and letting your winners ride looking for the occasional whale(skewed tail) trade to make you financial well off in time. Name one of the top 50 traders that don't follow this mantra. Paul Tudor Jones, Richard Dennis, Ed Soykata, George Sorros Etc,Etc.
I don't know how the aforementioned personalities trade but I'm 100% sure that they don't lose a lot and hope for some big tail which will recover their loses. Not when some of them have billions of dollars under management.

Quoting james996
Of course you could always just go out and buy that new fancy whiz bang indicator the 19 y/o kid is selling on his smart looking website.
Completely off-topic, you brought this maybe because you lack arguments.
  • #8,968
  • Edited 1:13pm Dec 5, 2009 1:00pm | Edited 1:13pm
Quote
I don't know how the aforementioned personalities trade but I'm 100% sure that they don't lose a lot and hope for some big tail which will recover their loses. Not when some of them have billions of dollars under management. http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/s.../yim/happy.gif
I'm 100% sure how they trade in general seeing a had the good pleasure to work for two of them. My uncle still works for Soros and is directly resposble for at least one billion. My Ex wife works for another successful hedge fund. All that aside their methods for the most part are based on long term trend following metrics using sound money management techniques.They take many small losses in hope for the occasional outer tier trades that come around. Also one could within a couple of hours go check the performances of some of the top funds that are open to the public and look at theire equity/perforamnce curves for the last ten years and overlay them over a basic turtle break out strategy(4 week and 10 week breakouts).You would be surprised at what would stand out. They all seem to make money at the same time in the same markets for the most part. Wonder why? The main differences is their tolerences for risk. That will determine the variance on the absolute returns on equity between them...

Sauron said
Quote
Completely off-topic, you brought this maybe because you lack arguments.
Well Sauron all I can say is I opened my private life up to all here and gave an open invite to come into NYC to my office and check out how I trade. I asked for nothing in return.. I have tried my best to give something back. I have nothing more to give and don't wish to argue with you or anyone else. Maybe one day you will invite us to your office or home? I wish everyone here success in all your endeavors..
  • #8,969
  • Dec 5, 2009 6:38pm Dec 5, 2009 6:38pm
Hey James996,
i sincerly hope you dont give up on posting here, it would be a loss for all of us that appreciate those willing to share real life experiences, in the area's we share in common.
there will always be those that dont appreciate the effort it might take for someone to offer to open up there personal trading lives, if i lived in America i might just have taken you up on your offer's, but flying from Australia is a little far at the moment.

Thanks again for your interesting insights into trading with IB's and i for one hope you do continue to post here when and if you feel like it.

cheers
Geoff

Quoting james996
I'm 100% sure how they trade in general seeing a had the good pleasure to work for two of them. My uncle still works for Soros and is directly resposble for at least one billion. My Ex wife works for another successful hedge fund. All that aside their methods for the most part are based on long term trend following metrics using sound money management techniques.They take many small losses in hope for the occasional outer tier trades that come around. Also one could within a couple of hours go check the performances of some of the top funds...
  • #8,970
  • Dec 6, 2009 6:38am Dec 6, 2009 6:38am
the only way you can deploy large dollars without moving the market in the wrong way is to catch the long term trends.

I have recently started working for a prop firm that deals only with day trading securities and am actually amazed at people who sit there trying to grab a few cents on a move - it is quite a different environment and I do have trouble seeing the logic sometimes, but time will tell


Quoting james996
I'm 100% sure how they trade in general seeing a had the good pleasure to work for two of them. My uncle still works for Soros and is directly resposble for at least one billion. My Ex wife works for another successful hedge fund. All that aside their methods...
  • #8,971
  • Dec 8, 2009 10:54am Dec 8, 2009 10:54am
Quoting james996
If you want, look me up on Skype my number is listed in my profile. This goes for anyone that would like a little advise or encouragement I don't mind giving back to those that are willing to help themselves. Just let me know when.
Hey James!

I would like to take a chance to catch up with you but there are no number in your profile.
Is there still any possibility to contact you somehow?

Thanks!
  • #8,972
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:06pm Dec 8, 2009 2:06pm
Quoting idejs
Hey James!

I would like to take a chance to catch up with you but there are no number in your profile.
Is there still any possibility to contact you somehow?

Thanks!
Hey IDEJS

if he hasn't already contacted you, here is his number as put up by him in his third or fourth post

PM or just call me at 917-578-9986.

hope this helps

let us know how it goes

cheers
Geoff
  • #8,973
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:28pm Dec 8, 2009 2:28pm
Quoting geoffrod
Hey IDEJS

if he hasn't already contacted you, here is his number as put up by him in his third or fourth post

PM or just call me at 917-578-9986.

hope this helps

let us know how it goes

cheers
Geoff
Hey Goeff!

Thanks! Yes, I saw this number as well. I just thought maybe there is some other possibility like mail, his skype name or something?

Thank you!
  • #8,974
  • Dec 8, 2009 2:42pm Dec 8, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting idejs
Hey Goeff!

Thanks! Yes, I saw this number as well. I just thought maybe there is some other possibility like mail, his skype name or something?

Thank you!
Just send him a PM i am sure he will reply to you

good luck

cheers
Geoff
  • #8,975
  • Dec 8, 2009 5:55pm Dec 8, 2009 5:55pm
Has anyone tested this method on a 5 min chart ?
  • #8,976
  • Dec 9, 2009 3:04am Dec 9, 2009 3:04am
Quoting Razorman
Has anyone tested this method on a 5 min chart ?
Having looked at other threads on FF regarding the behaviour of certain brokers and SB providers, the problem with working on a 5-min basis (lots of entries and intraday exits) is that they regard you as a 'scalper' rather than a trader, and they don't like it. Consequently they'll put you on manual dealing or the infamous MetaTrader Virtual Dealer to slow your trades down.
  • #8,977
  • Dec 9, 2009 3:53am Dec 9, 2009 3:53am
I discovered this and the original thread a few days ago and have read the entire thread start to finish and must say it seems an interesting system.

I currently have success with another system which relies on PA, 00 numbers and support & resistance but if i can add this one to my tool box it can only help my trading.

I do have a few questions though.

Are any of the original posters still using this with any success as they do not seem to contribute to the thread anymore.

Also, the general consensus was that Peter withheld certain aspects of the system maybe in the thinking that he would give you the starting point but you would have to do a little research and modifications to get DIBS to wotk effectively. Is this the case? I have read the term HOT HANDS a number of times but do not understand what this means. Is it a part of the system certain posters found out from Peter?

Also, people were talking about adding filters to trades. Have they had any success with these?
No man is smart, except by comparison to those who know less!
  • #8,978
  • Edited 5:26am Dec 9, 2009 4:24am | Edited 5:26am
Quoting Razorman
Has anyone tested this method on a 5 min chart ?
5min? good luck!
i wouldn t trade ANY system on 5 min., cause i love my heart.
  • #8,979
  • Dec 9, 2009 7:26am Dec 9, 2009 7:26am
Yes true 5 min is much faster. But what i have found is that stuff that works on daily and 4 hr and 1 hr works same on 5 min as well. Its just a lot faster. Gotta have the balls for it!
  • #8,980
  • Dec 9, 2009 8:31am Dec 9, 2009 8:31am
Razorman and Razorboy - seems like an elite team of forex crime fighters are here
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