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  • #10,641
  • Dec 2, 2009 9:47pm Dec 2, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting G_Man
except I dont do SL but i know what you mean ...

anyway lets just hope that she doesnt go above 1250 before going down to 1200 ... i just opened another one at 1225 ...

When the credit crisis hit in October 08, equities tumbled and the dollar soared AND gold soared.

Shorting gold is just not my flavor of brew. Good luck to ya sir.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #10,642
  • Dec 2, 2009 9:51pm Dec 2, 2009 9:51pm
Quoting earthsmate
near overbought though .. so a bit nervous to get in
yea almost every pairs are also overbought, feel so hesitate to trade now.
  • #10,643
  • Dec 2, 2009 10:01pm Dec 2, 2009 10:01pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Sinner, you seem to have good knowlede of interbank workings. Is there any coordination on a stop hunt? I know from years of PA that some levels are just protected too well to try. I always assumed there is knowledge of what percent of stops are retail and thus can't really be protected. These sorts of things.
I'm not sure there is coordination (generally if there banks working together we would be talking about those 100 pip an hour type moves) but I am mighty sure none of them stand in the way of the other.

Think like this, if you are Tokyo interbank dealer you wake up and see exactly what your colleagues in NY were doing a few hours ago. You probably know the area that NY big dogs put into motion to close the next day. That is why it always seems Tokyo to go opposite to the rest of the market, it's FX dealers shaking out weak positions and fading them in anticipation of European moves.

Just look at what happened today from the open (and it's happened more than once this week if you're watching!).

We broke NY EOD range quickly, pushed straight to daily+weekly R1 (first stoploss cluster) to test for supply. No supply to swamp demand, so they push the next cluster at yesterday high (which just so happens to be a few pips away) and shorts continue to scramble for cover. Every time they push there is less short term retail shorts than longs (because a majority of retail shorts just had to cover long) and supply/demand might shift slightly. With less retail shorts than longs, it is easy to push to the next level (in this case 93 psych level).

During Tokyo forex takes its lead a lot from regional bourse (Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Australia, Russia, India, etc) open at that time, so FX dealers can use big spikes in indices (especially the volatile HSI and SSE) to push stops they might not have otherwise been able to and move with the index.
  • #10,644
  • Dec 2, 2009 10:03pm Dec 2, 2009 10:03pm
Quoting cphcphcph
yea almost every pairs are also overbought, feel so hesitate to trade now.
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful...hourly close above yesterday high, I am willing to risk a few ticks here to make a few. Given the appropriate setup of course.

9325 RBA sell zone will be a magnet.
  • #10,645
  • Dec 2, 2009 10:08pm Dec 2, 2009 10:08pm
Quoting G_Man
AUD i understand but why Euro?

i only care about Gold ... i have 6 positions on Gold ... as long as Gold comes down then everything else can go up ... i dont care about others ...

ok, shahab8b tell me about gold, dont tell me what i wanna hear please tell me the truth ...
Hi G_Man , didnt you see my post about Gold chart?
  • #10,646
  • Dec 2, 2009 10:11pm Dec 2, 2009 10:11pm
Resistance hit, if it goes below 9277 i'll be out
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  • #10,647
  • Dec 2, 2009 10:24pm Dec 2, 2009 10:24pm
Quoting amyc
long aussie, long euro, short S&P but will probably bail on that position in the next few hours
Hi Amyc, is it a hedge combination you have chosen or there is other reason? (Eur ,S&P correlation is more than .90)
  • #10,648
  • Dec 2, 2009 10:31pm Dec 2, 2009 10:31pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Amyc, is it a hedge combination you have chosen or there is other reason? (Eur ,S&P correlation is more than .90)
No I was bearish on both at the end of the NY session so i went short the S&P but i am probably going to change my mind on that. At the moment to me the usdx looks very bearish which is driving my currency longs. It looks like today maybe a repeat of yesterday at the moment though.
  • #10,649
  • Dec 2, 2009 11:17pm Dec 2, 2009 11:17pm
Short term, possible. We are obviously waiting for Frankfurt to come online and sell some USD or not.

I always find it difficult to gauge effort versus reaction at this time of day. Still lined up from Tokyo open to sell yesterdays low holding a small long from hourly break and close of yesterdays high, see no reason to exit at a loss (yet).
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  • #10,650
  • Dec 2, 2009 11:21pm Dec 2, 2009 11:21pm
There's a possibility they take the dollar up to 74.69 before selling it down, i am hoping that doesn't happen
  • #10,651
  • Dec 2, 2009 11:26pm Dec 2, 2009 11:26pm
From day before yesterday but contains a few tidbits I thought you all might find interesting. From the Brewer Futures Group

The failure of the equity markets to follow-through to the upside helped the AUD USD erase some of its overnight gains. Renewed demand for higher risk assets gave the Aussie a boost overnight and early in the New York session. The recent decoupling from the equity markets during the recent stock market rally is an indication that the selling is greater than the buying at current levels. The main trend is now down and the current lower-top, lower-bottom formation indicates that selling pressure is beginning to build.

Tomorrow the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points. This may have helped give the market a boost today. Traders remain tentative about aggressively buying this currency because of the possibility that this rate hike may be last for several months. The activity out of Dubai over the past few days is raising some concerns about Australia's exposure to emerging market economies.

The main trend is down in the NZD USD. The charts indicate that .6914 to .6744 is the next potential downside target. Diminishing demand for higher risk assets could pressure this market until the end of the year. Monday's sell-off from the high is an indication that shorts are looking for rallies to sell. Like Australia, the New Zealand economy may be facing heavy exposure to emerging market debt. This could pressure the economy if it proves to be true.
  • #10,652
  • Dec 2, 2009 11:58pm Dec 2, 2009 11:58pm
resistance (and RBA??) at 0,93 / 0,9325

if broken is clearly a bullish sign, I would though follow the bigs and start selling around these levels with a target down to this week lows or close to them (0,8950 - 0,90)
  • #10,653
  • Dec 3, 2009 12:02am Dec 3, 2009 12:02am
Someone with a dollar definitely just bought at 9275, although who knows if they have ENOUGH dollars. Retail traders still seem happy selling daily and weekly R1. Effort vs reaction just got even more confusing, but so far this has halted the drift lower.

Rumours and conjecture on the wire that RBA was the seller at 93 zone, but there is no confirmation either way on this. If I had to guess the sell prices I'd pick 9303 and 9309 on the offer. Just speculation.

I just read Guy Lerners occasional article/analysis on USDX and he is indicating the possibility for a BLOW OFF BOTTOM (I suggested a possible blow off top for AUDUSD yesterday) for the USDX. Shorts should keep this in mind, any fast push by NY big dog could force a lot of short covering or even worse spark serious greed and everyone piles in for the ride up. I hate these sort of moves as I almost always seem to miss them.

Going home now, still holding small long at -20 currently, will exit if/when Mr Market says so. So far he just says "I'm bored, bring on the Germans".
  • #10,654
  • Dec 3, 2009 12:07am Dec 3, 2009 12:07am
Quoting sinner-
Someone with a dollar definitely just bought at 9275, although who knows if they have ENOUGH dollars. Retail traders still seem happy selling daily and weekly R1. Effort vs reaction just got even more confusing, but so far this has halted the drift lower.

Rumours and conjecture on the wire that RBA was the seller at 93 zone, but there is no confirmation either way on this. If I had to guess the sell prices I'd pick 9303 and 9309 on the offer. Just speculation.

I just read Guy Lerners occasional article/analysis on USDX and he is indicating...
commodity crosses always lead the rallies and lag behind

a short term top in gold might have been reached
in that case, there's great potency for AUD to fall from 0,93
  • #10,655
  • Dec 3, 2009 12:20am Dec 3, 2009 12:20am
Quoting fammira
commodity crosses always lead the rallies and lag behind

a short term top in gold might have been reached
in that case, there's great potency for AUD to fall from 0,93
I am not trying to pick moves here, just create awareness of the macro market.

Really couldn't give a toss whether it goes up or down in the end so long as I can bid and offer either direction with a good spread. Fall from 93 is fine with me but it doesn't make sense just right now either, the price keeps posting bullish signals. We had worse than expected retail sales on this pair and the RBA still had to sell it down. To put it another way, so far there has been a lot of effort without much reaction.

Had to stay at work a bit late so here is one extra chart. Take on the big dogs at your own risk. See you London
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  • #10,656
  • Dec 3, 2009 12:25am Dec 3, 2009 12:25am
tis a strange dychotomy going on here.... I am staying long
( I flipped a coin lol)
cheers!
  • #10,657
  • Dec 3, 2009 12:28am Dec 3, 2009 12:28am
Ist week of the month has a tendency to finish on or near the highs when in an uptrend. This is unless the monthly highs have already been hit, so if we hit 9407 on Thursdays session then we may sell down on Friday but otherwise we are likely to keep heading higher into Friday.
  • #10,658
  • Dec 3, 2009 1:08am Dec 3, 2009 1:08am
Quoting sinner-
Going home now, still holding small long at -20 currently, will exit if/when Mr Market says so. So far he just says "I'm bored, bring on the Germans".
Mr Market has been breaking shit while I was gone, but luckily he missed my exit by a pip or two and I'm currently up +15ish.

Gotta be careful here though, this could just be Frankfurt marking up for London to sell down.
  • #10,659
  • Dec 3, 2009 1:12am Dec 3, 2009 1:12am
Quoting cphcphcph
yea almost every pairs are also overbought, feel so hesitate to trade now.
I am sidelined at the moment just a small EUR. I tend to get trapped in overbought

Win lots, lose them all that the end ... I want patience to be my friends this time . I am thankful to God I am still on a win .
{Promotion Removed}
  • #10,660
  • Dec 3, 2009 1:13am Dec 3, 2009 1:13am
I was just thinking of target 9400 looking at daily.

Second entrance of the day on Aussie,
long @ .9280

Gold is continually breaking records, Current world spot 1218.
Many have been surprised.

http://www.kitco.com/images/live/gold.gif

Quoting amyc
Ist week of the month has a tendency to finish on or near the highs when in an uptrend. This is unless the monthly highs have already been hit, so if we hit 9407 on Thursdays session then we may sell down on Friday but otherwise we are likely to keep heading higher into Friday.
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