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  • #167,521
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:07pm Dec 1, 2009 7:07pm
Quoting ahlude
131.25 is strong....been rejected a few time...
yeah i put 40 for clearence.. old tl was 40 new one is about 88
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #167,522
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:27pm Dec 1, 2009 7:27pm
Ummm any clue what just happened?

Edit: Well this is a report i saw "BOJ's board member Miyako Suda said that the central bank would not rule out any policy options as it looks to adopt the most effective monetary policy. He also warned that the rise seen in the Yen could hurt the growth of Japan."
Time is what keeps everything from happening "right now".
  • #167,523
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:38pm Dec 1, 2009 7:38pm
ej got room to move higher above 131.4 check

uj got room to go lower, maybe 84.75 check

eu got room to go higher 151.52 check maybe 151.71/76 plus

usdx doji unknown. ? has a little lower room..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #167,524
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:44pm Dec 1, 2009 7:44pm
it is probably time to stand aside?? Earlier, they indicated that they wouldn't intervene till we saw 80?? IDK, and that's for sure. I felt they would have pumped yen into the market much earlier, but the Nikkei remains strong??

Quoting Dv84
Ummm any clue what just happened?

Edit: Well this is a report i saw "BOJ's board member Miyako Suda said that the central bank would not rule out any policy options as it looks to adopt the most effective monetary policy. He also warned that the rise seen in the Yen could hurt the growth of Japan."
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #167,525
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:45pm Dec 1, 2009 7:45pm
Quoting gatorinla
time to watch... ej easing up some.. eu has to get above 5115 for the dog to hunt. im waiting as said for 25... ej currently at 131.28 above 131.40 may set eu free

done.... heads ups.. not a sure thing... above 131.88 may be a new eu top..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #167,526
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:46pm Dec 1, 2009 7:46pm
Quoting Artcritique
it is probably time to stand aside?? Earlier, they indicated that they wouldn't intervene till we saw 80?? IDK, and that's for sure. I felt they would have pumped yen into the market much earlier, but the Nikkei remains strong??
well last year same type of emergency meeting nothing was done.. history is a bitch
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #167,527
  • Dec 1, 2009 7:53pm Dec 1, 2009 7:53pm
I've been trying to decipher these guys for so long I've developed a split personality. In the short term they may well do nothing?? After all, the country is doing comparatively well?? And they can buy resources and assets everywhere with these high price Yen, much cheaper than they've been able to for years.
If you figure it out, please put me on your mailing list. I need the help..

Quoting gatorinla
well last year same type of emergency meeting nothing was done.. history is a bitch
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #167,528
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:11pm Dec 1, 2009 8:11pm
Quoting Artcritique
In the short term they may well do nothing??
Can anything they do help the USD? What help is there for the greenback, really? Isn't the dollar just going to keep getting sold in the present carry trade scenario that has unfolded, unless there's a turndown in the stock markets? Even then will USD have to compete with Gold and the JPY both as a safe haven? I see we have some FOMC heads due up this week to say some words. Is there anything "hawkish" they can say that might help the dollar? Samosamo "strong dollar" utterances are starting to have the opposite effect....wink and a green light for the $ bears.

I had thougt that there might be a nice round of year-end "profit-taking" in the markets, but there's no guarantee on that, either. ECB said yesterday they have no worries on E/U below 1.60. At what point would you just want to say, "Well wtf is taking it so long....?"
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #167,529
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:16pm Dec 1, 2009 8:16pm
Quoting The Fool
Can anything they do help the USD? What help is there for the greenback, really? Isn't the dollar just going to keep getting sold in the present carry trade scenario that has unfolded, unless there's a turndown in the stock markets? Even then will USD have to compete with Gold and the JPY both as a safe haven? I see we have some FOMC heads due up this week to say some words. Is there anything "hawkish" they can say that might help the dollar? Samosamo "strong dollar" utterances are starting to have the opposite effect....wink and a green light...
you seem afraid from the long position you have, euro zone and japan can't accept euro and yen to strength more, it hurts their economy, dollar will strength not for economic reasons but for coordinated effort between the us and europe and japan
  • #167,530
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:20pm Dec 1, 2009 8:20pm
is interested in "helping" the USD?? But, they don't want to upset the boat to the point where they can't unload dollars either. My guess is that only Switzerland and China have an interest in changing the ratios and they are opposed.
Quoting The Fool
Can anything they do help the USD? What help is there for the greenback, really? Isn't the dollar just going to keep getting sold in the present carry trade scenario that has unfolded, unless there's a turndown in the stock markets? Even then will USD have to compete with Gold and the JPY both as a safe haven? I see we have some FOMC heads due up this week to say some words. Is there anything "hawkish" they can say that might help the dollar? Samosamo "strong dollar" utterances are starting to have the opposite effect....wink and a green light...
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
  • #167,531
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:22pm Dec 1, 2009 8:22pm
Quoting The Fool
Can anything they do help the USD? What help is there for the greenback, really? Isn't the dollar just going to keep getting sold in the present carry trade scenario that has unfolded, unless there's a turndown in the stock markets? Even then will USD have to compete with Gold and the JPY both as a safe haven? I see we have some FOMC heads due up this week to say some words. Is there anything "hawkish" they can say that might help the dollar? Samosamo "strong dollar" utterances are starting to have the opposite effect....wink and a green light...
Don't make the mistake of assuming the USD needs help. There is a big tap labelled Liquidity sitting in Fed offices in Chicago and NY and this "predicament" for the dollar is nothing more than those taps happening to be on. If they turn off the tap USD will kill everything on the market except JPY XAG and XAU. Look at T-bill yields currently! Bond vigilantes (the true price setters of the market) are NOT buying into this bullshit rally in currencies, equities and commodities.

Think about what is happening like this:
1. US owes everyone money.
2. US owes the most money to China and Japan.
3. Two options:
a. Pay back the money (har har har har har)
b. Inflate the money away

Now look at USD/JPY since the Fed started doing currency swaps late last year. Make sense now?
  • #167,532
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:34pm Dec 1, 2009 8:34pm
Well just woke up..eur/usd standing tall..almost no selling overnight.

I have exited my shorts to wait for next 2 hour candles to get a clear direction.
  • #167,533
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:36pm Dec 1, 2009 8:36pm
Quoting sinner-
Don't make the mistake of assuming the USD needs help. There is a big tap labelled Liquidity sitting in Fed offices in Chicago and NY and this "predicament" for the dollar is nothing more than those taps happening to be on. If they turn off the tap USD will kill everything on the market except JPY XAG and XAU. Look at T-bill yields currently! Bond vigilantes (the true price setters of the market) are NOT buying into this bullshit rally in currencies, equities and commodities.

Think about what is happening like this:
1. US owes everyone money.
2....
yeah they made a deal late 2007... it goes something like this "let me devalue the usd and ill make sure you got all the usd you want. these suckers will never know... we gave them shinny beads dow is 14K. what could go wrong? we can milk billions in oil money too.. this is a good plan. after all if something does go wrong we will give more shinny beads"
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #167,534
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:43pm Dec 1, 2009 8:43pm
Quoting gatorinla
yeah they made a deal late 2007... it goes something like this "let me devalue the usd and ill make sure you got all the usd you want. these suckers will never know... we gave them shinny beads dow is 14K. what could go wrong? we can milk billions in oil money too.. this is a good plan. after all if something does go wrong we will give more shinny beads"
I try not to think like that. Just put 10% of your profits into hard physical XAG XAU USD JPY you will be fine.
  • #167,535
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:46pm Dec 1, 2009 8:46pm
Quoting sinner-
I try not to think like that. Just put 10% of your profits into hard physical XAG XAU USD JPY you will be fine.
when oil is 82 i will start.. or if bb gets the shaft.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #167,536
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:52pm Dec 1, 2009 8:52pm
....
  • #167,537
  • Dec 1, 2009 8:53pm Dec 1, 2009 8:53pm
Quoting sinner-
Don't make the mistake of assuming the USD needs help.

b. Inflate the money away

Make sense now?
Well, of course, I know all that. I'm just making a rhetorical case for E/U to keep on rising, until the Fed takes action. Have heard one FOMC head talking about withdrawal of liquidity yesterday, maybe Lacker will pick up that tune tomorrow. Just not holding my breath on any other path to stronger dollar, though, that's all.

And personally, es macht nicht, I'm a scalper. Volatile ranging PA is just fine with me.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #167,538
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:02pm Dec 1, 2009 9:02pm
Quoting gatorinla
when oil is 82 i will start.. or if bb gets the shaft.
I have had a simple trade plan for the last 2 years:

USD strong: buy gold
USD weak: sell USD, hold profits in USD, wait for strong USD, repeat step 1.

Quoting The Fool
Well, of course, I know all that. I'm just making a rhetorical case for E/U to keep on rising, until the Fed takes action. Have heard one FOMC head talking about withdrawal of liquidity yesterday, maybe Lacker will pick up that tune tomorrow. Just not holding my breath on any other path to stronger dollar, though, that's all.

And personally, es macht nicht, I'm a scalper. Volatile ranging PA is just fine with me.
  • #167,539
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:02pm Dec 1, 2009 9:02pm
Not that technicals mean everything, but it is interesting to note the divergence on the Daily chart...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily main chart divergence 12-01-2009.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #167,540
  • Dec 1, 2009 9:06pm Dec 1, 2009 9:06pm
The pile is getting desperate! My guess is look out below.??
Ah Luv the smell of a good prediction in the mornin!
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