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Attachments: 0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy
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0400-0700 GMT Breakout Strategy

  • #1,761
  • Dec 1, 2009 12:49am Dec 1, 2009 12:49am
Correct me if I am wrong, but Grant's version of the breakout with the smallish 15 pip SL, was a loser, as well as last night.

And....Dubai, the 85 EMA is above the box, so the direction would be short if I finally have this right.

There are so many permutations of the tasciy's original breakout, it makes my head swim.
  • #1,762
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:10am Dec 1, 2009 1:10am
Quoting Bobcat2
Correct me if I am wrong, but Grant's version of the breakout with the smallish 15 pip SL, was a loser, as well as last night.

And....Dubai, the 85 EMA is above the box, so the direction would be short if I finally have this right.

There are so many permutations of the tasciy's original breakout, it makes my head swim.
There are a lot of variations, I agree! It's about finding what works for you and your style. I prefer the slope indicator as it's a very good protector against false breakouts. Yes, you miss a few winners but it's also rock solid. Results coming shortly..
  • #1,763
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:12am Dec 1, 2009 1:12am
Quoting Bobcat2
Correct me if I am wrong, but Grant's version of the breakout with the smallish 15 pip SL, was a loser, as well as last night.

And....Dubai, the 85 EMA is above the box, so the direction would be short if I finally have this right.

There are so many permutations of the tasciy's original breakout, it makes my head swim.
Hi Bob,

I know that my box set up starts at 07.15 but I do take trades at earlier times. I will tell you what I did and why with this trade and hope it helps. I did take this trade this morning and based upon Grant's rules it was a valid set up. I did not use the buffer for reasons that I will not go into. When it triggered with a large down bar it immediately reversed back with a 22 pip range bar (on a 2min chart) that was my signal that things were right and I was lucky to sell out at breakeven.

I was also a bit wary because we were very close to the hourly 0.618 fib retracement level from the move up from the low on the 27th November

Incidentaly the slope indicator would have kept you out of that trade as the slopes were in conflict
  • #1,764
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:47am Dec 1, 2009 1:47am
Okay, here are November's results for my version of this popular breakout.

To summerise; M15 chart with box hrs of 0500-0700 GMT. 9 candles in the box. The last candle starts at 0700 and finishes forming at 0715 GMT.

H1 chart with 2 slopes on. 25,3,0 and 50,3,0. I only trade in the direction of the slope.

SL10, TP30: 170 pips

SL20, TP30: 180 pips

SL30, TP30: 330 pips

In excel I have highlighted the trades where the slopes contradicted with the breakout of the box. These are trades I would not of taken, hence the higher totals above.

SL 30, TP 30: 11 trades, 11 wins. Boom!!!
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls GU morning breakout.xls   19 KB | 512 downloads
  • #1,765
  • Dec 1, 2009 1:58am Dec 1, 2009 1:58am
hey guys,

some confusion around my rules and this mornings trade, so attached is the breakout box as i see it.

as per my method if the ema is in the box at all then its no trade, so this morning was no trade... if you had of traded then it would have ended up -15....

hope the pic makes that clear...

any questions let me know

cheers

Grant
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 011209.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #1,766
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:26am Dec 1, 2009 2:26am
Hey I have just installed a MT4 demo to my computer, I usually use quick or advanced charts on IG index.

I have downloaded and added in Dubai's slopes, but I read somewhere Mat said using 50 and 25. So what I thought that ment was

Period: 50
Method: 25
Price: 0

But when I did that there was no slope to be seen! It was there when it was at its default

Period: 80
Method: 3
Price: 0

Im just hoping some one could help me out cos im confused, thanks
  • #1,767
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:28am Dec 1, 2009 2:28am
waw

dubai uses

25, 3, 0
50, 3, 0

hope that helps. any more technical than that and i have no idea,.... lol

cheers

Grant
  • #1,768
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:37am Dec 1, 2009 2:37am
Quoting DubaiTrader
Okay, here are November's results for my version of this popular breakout.

To summerise; M15 chart with box hrs of 0500-0700 GMT. 9 candles in the box. The last candle starts at 0700 and finishes forming at 0715 GMT.

H1 chart with 2 slopes on. 25,3,0 and 50,3,0. I only trade in the direction of the slope.

SL10, TP30: 170 pips

SL20, TP30: 180 pips

SL30, TP30: 330 pips

In excel I have highlighted the trades where the slopes contradicted with the breakout of the box. These are trades I would not of taken, hence the higher totals above.

SL...
DubaiTrader

Thanks for sharing.

Do u include buffer for your entry and take spread into consideration for long?

Btw, I went thorough the Excel sheet, I re-calculate the return based on % and this is what I get, assume u risk 1% per trade:

For SL10, TP30 : 13% ; Win Rate : 46.67%

For SL20, TP30 : 5% ; Win Rate : 53.33%

For SL30, TP30 : 9% ; Win Rate : 80%

Looks good, all end up with +ve return but higher pips does not mean higher return :-)
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls GU morning breakout(1).xls   29 KB | 410 downloads
  • #1,769
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:49am Dec 1, 2009 2:49am
Quoting DubaiTrader
Okay, here are November's results for my version of this popular breakout.

To summerise; M15 chart with box hrs of 0500-0700 GMT. 9 candles in the box. The last candle starts at 0700 and finishes forming at 0715 GMT.

H1 chart with 2 slopes on. 25,3,0 and 50,3,0. I only trade in the direction of the slope.

SL10, TP30: 170 pips

SL20, TP30: 180 pips

SL30, TP30: 330 pips

In excel I have highlighted the trades where the slopes contradicted with the breakout of the box. These are trades I would not of taken, hence the higher totals...

What size buffer do you use for this method Dubai? still 7 + spread & 7 or 10/10?thanks
  • #1,770
  • Edited 3:11am Dec 1, 2009 2:50am | Edited 3:11am
Thanks Grant

just edited this,

Im such a donkey, the answer is 2 posts above my question!! haha!

But still thank you
  • #1,771
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:52am Dec 1, 2009 2:52am
Quoting DubaiTrader
Okay, here are November's results for my version of this popular breakout.

To summerise; M15 chart with box hrs of 0500-0700 GMT. 9 candles in the box. The last candle starts at 0700 and finishes forming at 0715 GMT.

H1 chart with 2 slopes on. 25,3,0 and 50,3,0. I only trade in the direction of the slope.

SL10, TP30: 170 pips

SL20, TP30: 180 pips

SL30, TP30: 330 pips

In excel I have highlighted the trades where the slopes contradicted with the breakout of the box. These are trades I would not of taken, hence the higher totals...
Hi Dubai,

Many thanks for sharing that. What is interesting is that the ROI is far better on the SL10 system even though you had less winners

7 winners with each winner giving 3 x risk

4 losers with each loss giving 1 x risk

Overall 21 x risk (won) less 4 x risk (lost) = ROI of 17 x risk (I know that this does not allow for spread)

Whereas the SL 30 gives an ROI of 11 x risk

I think it might be worth considering reporting the amount gained or lost in relation to the amount risked rather than in pips which came be distorting
  • #1,772
  • Dec 1, 2009 2:56am Dec 1, 2009 2:56am
Hi Grant,

Please can you explain why the box (in yellow) is extended above and below the high and low for the 4.00am - 6.00am price action and what criteria you us for extending it up and down

Many thanks
  • #1,773
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:04am Dec 1, 2009 3:04am
hey indy,

it adds the buffers to the highs and lows for me,

so +7 pips buffer long and -5 pips buffer short

cheers

Grant
  • #1,774
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:05am Dec 1, 2009 3:05am
Quoting maxximuz
DubaiTrader

Thanks for sharing.

Do u include buffer for your entry and take spread into consideration for long?

Btw, I went thorough the Excel sheet, I re-calculate the return based on % and this is what I get, assume u risk 1% per trade:

For SL10, TP30 : 13% ; Win Rate : 46.67%

For SL20, TP30 : 5% ; Win Rate : 53.33%

For SL30, TP30 : 9% ; Win Rate : 80%

Looks good, all end up with +ve return but higher pips does not mean higher return :-)
I use a 10 pip buffer for both long and short. All wins for accounted for spread using a 2 pip spread. Thanks for the % returns. I'd personally risk more on 30/30 than 10/30. The win rate for Nov was 100%. Anyway, good work.
  • #1,775
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:08am Dec 1, 2009 3:08am
Quoting grant18265
hey indy,

it adds the buffers to the highs and lows for me,

so +7 pips buffer long and -5 pips buffer short

cheers

Grant
Grant, any particular reason the buffer is higher for long? Or it is so far the best after you back tested?

thanks
  • #1,776
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:13am Dec 1, 2009 3:13am
just includes the spread on my platform


cheers

Grant
  • #1,777
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:15am Dec 1, 2009 3:15am
for Grant and Dubai,

do your buffers exclude your spread then?

sorry if this is a repetitive topic/question.
  • #1,778
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:16am Dec 1, 2009 3:16am
Quoting grant18265
just includes the spread on my platform


cheers

Grant
oh i see. In that case, I will include 5 pips as buffer for both long and short, as the spread might fluctuate.

thanks
  • #1,779
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:19am Dec 1, 2009 3:19am
Quoting wawarulez
for Grant and Dubai,

do your buffers exclude your spread then?

sorry if this is a repetitive topic/question.
My buffer is there to simply protect a few false breakouts of the immediate box. I've see it occur on numerous occasions where the price just pokes through and then retraces.
  • #1,780
  • Dec 1, 2009 3:21am Dec 1, 2009 3:21am
waw,

7 buffer long includes spread,
5 buffer short does not include spread

cheers

Grant
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