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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #48,901
  • Nov 30, 2009 4:21am Nov 30, 2009 4:21am
morning all, hope everyone had a nice weekend.

i've got some time so just though i'd post this trade if anyone wishes to discuss it.

i was looking to short usd/cad trading off Trend line resistance and inisially took a pin break looking for the retrace...i missed the pin break itself and took the short on a retrace to the same area (this was played with a smaller than avg lot size due to stop distance(above TL))

price then moved higher, i took another short @ TL res, this allowed for a small stop and larger lot size (also working from lower tf's for entry, pa div etc)

1st tp on the above was set close enough to put me in a "free trade position"

price then came back again to test TL res, i got in again on the fail (this was the best trade) because we had:

1) tried and tested TL res & 3 bar highs
2) very tight sl
3) room to get in tp1 and get to free trade prior to hitting rising tl support (on 15min chart)
4) oh and some good looking div (15min) stoch and rsi.

free trade status was reached quickly, stops were moved to profit and as it closed with loads of room to breath i left it for the weekend (i would have closed i it hadn't)

i closed all on a failure to break support (after the 30min pin) this morning.

oh there was also a rsi tl break but i used it as a confirmation rarther than an entry.

hope this is within the keeping of this thread....if it's not no worries i'll remove it. just though i'd show a little how i traded.

regards ic
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  • #48,902
  • Edited 6:39am Nov 30, 2009 6:27am | Edited 6:39am
Quoting joelcf
Its more just something to be aware of - if you load up yen on every JPY cross you can find, and then the BoJ comes out with some bad news, you are gonna have a bad day.

(and this is strictly IMO, many people dont agree, including Mike, who you should all listen to).

Just to clarify, Mike is in absolute agreement with you on this one (as am I).

Like Joel says, the yen pairs almost always move as one and taking all the yen pinbars you can eat is essentially on great big mammoth trade on the yen. If the signals are super A+ then I sometimes take 2. But then I only risk 1% per trade so I am never that exposed. If I went for 2% risk then there's no way I'd allow a 4% bet on the yen.

Do you use a dedicated futures broker Joel, or a one stop shop like IB? And do you find there is anything extra nuances you need to know in terms of margin requirements, position sizing, gaps etc when it comes to futures?(beyond obviously, the easily google-able info that I have already accumulated)

Edited to add:

Scanning back it seems I missed a post or two that makes my post completely superfluous. Never mind. Won't be the first time....

This thing about watching a ton of charts.....one of the thing that gets forgotten is that it all depends on how you trade. Mike watches for very specific things that are easily identifiable. He doesn't spend ages plotting out trendlines and fibs and the like on a chart. He likes to open it, see if there's a trade and then close it. For his style of trading it makes sense to follow the GBPAUD or the USDMXN or whatever because he's already controlled any chance of overtrading. So it suits him to watch a ton of charts. I would say if you are watching daily and weekly price action only then it also suits to watch a ton of charts because you are learning the material and looking at a chart once a day. Load up as many as you can I say.

But if you start to get into the way a pair moves like Rac and if, like him, you spend some time annotating a chart or watching the correlations and really getting in depth into a pair looking for how it moves....well then you really aren't going to be able to do that on many pairs. So then Joel's advice is more in line with what you should be doing.

The number of charts you should watch is dependent on how you like to trade.

Personally I do a mixture of both. I watch dailies and weeklies on a ton of pairs. I rarely see a trade I like, maybe one or two a month. That's it. So it takes me under 2 minutes to cycle through them at NY close.

Then intraday, whilst I still have all my charts tabbed, I am paying much more attention to the majors. And I do some work on those charts with trendline, fibs, and other stuff. Nothing too complex and magical but I want to know if I see an intraday pinbar directly off a level that has more than one weekly high/low off that level also.

A lot of this just comes with time and practice but unfortunately people try and jump in and do too much to quick (and even worse do it with real money) and boom....game over. The learning curve is like a snowbal rolling down a hill. It starts slowly but can really build up a head of steam if you take the recommendations and grow at your own pace. Heck, you'll even eventually be able to see what Rac is talking about.....
  • #48,903
  • Nov 30, 2009 7:23am Nov 30, 2009 7:23am
Quoting KissFan
Hello Turnip. It looks like you know what you are talking about thus far. I always tell the newer traders that it is better to wait for bar confirmation than to anticipate what is going to happen with price. Go back and look at your charts, you will find many examples where this philosophy would have kept you from lining the professionals pockets. Keep at it Turnip. Be patient. Wait for the right time to get in a trade. It's worth it.

K.I.S.S.
Many thanks for your encouragement. Much appreciated
every Saint has a past. Every Sinner has a Future
  • #48,904
  • Nov 30, 2009 7:39am Nov 30, 2009 7:39am
Quoting benji533



Hey Aron
What's up brother?

If you are planing to take the Yen pins, be careful not to stand in rac's way


Hope you had a great weekend!

Hey Benji good to see you again!

This is all new to me but am I interpreting your charts correctly - you're looking to take touch trades if price hits the trendline and the ppz at more-or-less the same time?
  • #48,905
  • Nov 30, 2009 7:50am Nov 30, 2009 7:50am
Quoting atclarkson
It was a nice pin, stuck out some, fib confluence in 2 spots (marked in blue, 50 and 61) big round number 1.01. If it breaks it should run to the two red lines shown.

Issues... not enough space, not a major swing high, and the big round number 1.0000 just below. It didn't have a nice close (as many have discussed recently here, a bar that closes farther from the nose than it opened shows momentum and is important).

One might scrape a few pips off of it, esp if you played it off a lower tf (case in point, 1 hour had a pin that broke HARD) but...

Excellent analysis thanks Clarkson. I'd gone to bed and decided to place an order before I saw your reply or I might have reconsidered - it ran all the way to 1.00 before reversing just like you anticipated. I'm still in it as I'm still seeing bearish PA but I certainly wont take a full bar loss on it.

Thanks again mate
  • #48,906
  • Nov 30, 2009 7:54am Nov 30, 2009 7:54am
Quoting MattW
Hey Benji good to see you again!

This is all new to me but am I interpreting your charts correctly - you're looking to take touch trades if price hits the trendline and the ppz at more-or-less the same time?
Hey bro,

Yep, kinda. Make it better with a lower time PA for a small stop and a great R:R.
  • #48,907
  • Nov 30, 2009 8:05am Nov 30, 2009 8:05am
Quoting TiaForex
Just to clarify, Mike is in absolute agreement with you on this one (as am I).

Like Joel says, the yen pairs almost always move as one and taking all the yen pinbars you can eat is essentially on great big mammoth trade on the yen. If the signals are super A+ then I sometimes take 2. But then I only risk 1% per trade so I am never that exposed. If I went for 2% risk then there's no way I'd allow a 4% bet on the yen.

Do you use a dedicated futures broker Joel, or a one stop shop like IB? And do you find there is anything extra nuances you need...
Hi - still pondering this TF thing. As a newbie makes sense to trade dailies/weeklies but not seeing a really good trade more than once or twice a month across several pairs. Apparently this is to be expected. However, for demoing purposes doesn't give much opportunity to practice exits entries etc. So wondered if 4hr for practice is worth a try?

Thanks

JS
  • #48,908
  • Nov 30, 2009 8:26am Nov 30, 2009 8:26am
Quoting jspeakman
Hi - still pondering this TF thing. As a newbie makes sense to trade dailies/weeklies but not seeing a really good trade more than once or twice a month across several pairs. Apparently this is to be expected. However, for demoing purposes doesn't give much opportunity to practice exits entries etc. So wondered if 4hr for practice is worth a try?

Thanks

JS
I know it seems counter intuitive. After all, the reasoning goes, if you don't trade then how can you learn. But I really do believe that what I learnt by not even looking at the 4H for a good few months, was patience. The most valuable skill you can learn IMO is passing on trades and waiting for the market to come to you. It's a really dangerous mindset to think that there is a trade 'out there' if you just look hard enough. And that is what i think jumping down too early can give you.

Why not try it this way: widen the instruments you watch. Get fxpro for demo and watch daily and weekly on currencies, futures, indices, stocks.....get a feel for how the markets work. You'll be watching as many as a hundred charts a day. That's plenty of opportunities and plenty of time to watch. OR maybe try getting a program like forextester and backtesting old market data.

There is nothing wrong per se with doing anything on demo. After all, it's demo, so you can trade the 5M if you like. But I think it can lead to the single biggest trap for new dedicated traders which is becoming overwhelmed. Build it up slowly and you get to the finish line quicker IMO.

And just to chip in on my 4H experience. I trade the 4H live. And last month I think I took 3 trades on that TF. Which is a lot of watching without trading. Watching without trading gets you to profitability quicker than anything else IMO.
  • #48,909
  • Nov 30, 2009 8:28am Nov 30, 2009 8:28am
Quoting joelcf
...
If you really wanted to go spartan - I could whittle my dream team down to ten charts:

AUDJPY - yay risk aversion
EURUSD - low spreads, high volume, boring
USDJPY - get some movement in your charts
EURCHF - big bad swissie
USDCAD - me like oil. me like gold.
EURGBP - for all your cross-channel needs.

...
I found this piece of advice handy. Although I check out tons of charts each night it's good to have a list of those that are worth a closer look and why.
If you're waiting for PA on EURCHF daily I guess you must be very patient?! Or do you look at the 1hour on this one?
  • #48,910
  • Nov 30, 2009 9:16am Nov 30, 2009 9:16am
Buob off of 365 already set to BE. Also showing as a pinbar on hourly. Run, run very fast.
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"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." Henry Ford
  • #48,911
  • Nov 30, 2009 9:28am Nov 30, 2009 9:28am
Quoting TiaForex
I know it seems counter intuitive. After all, the reasoning goes, if you don't trade then how can you learn. But I really do believe that what I learnt by not even looking at the 4H for a good few months, was patience. The most valuable skill you can learn IMO is passing on trades and waiting for the market to come to you. It's a really dangerous mindset to think that there is a trade 'out there' if you just look hard enough. And that is what i think jumping down too early can give you.

Why not try it this way: widen the instruments you watch....
Really great advice and very helpful comments. I was thinking about broadening the field but a bit nervous of stepping out of my currency comfort zone.

Thanks again

JS
  • #48,912
  • Nov 30, 2009 9:44am Nov 30, 2009 9:44am
Quoting Scot Pippin'
Buob off of 365 already set to BE. Also showing as a pinbar on hourly. Run, run very fast.
Scot,

Can you tell me some more about the analysis you did for this trade please?
I see it was off the 365 and a round num 1.50 with the 150 giving additional support. Did I miss anything? What are your targets on this one?
  • #48,913
  • Nov 30, 2009 10:05am Nov 30, 2009 10:05am
Hi,

I would just share my positions on AU and EU. I am trying to catch the main trend if still intact and betting on it accordingly. At the moment I can not see definate direction, the market seems to be drifting downwards but it is not accomponied by definate action - ATM. I am holding to my positions to wait and see.

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Kind Regards zol
  • #48,914
  • Nov 30, 2009 10:06am Nov 30, 2009 10:06am
Anyone else like me not excited by anything they are seeing yet on the dailies. Nothing jumps out at me right now to be honest.

I will see how things look after the close today, but as of right now I don't see any orders I will be putting in at this point for tomorrow.

Have a good one everybody!

Nathan
  • #48,915
  • Nov 30, 2009 10:21am Nov 30, 2009 10:21am
Quoting dobe_r_man
Anyone else like me not excited by anything they are seeing yet on the dailies. Nothing jumps out at me right now to be honest.

I will see how things look after the close today, but as of right now I don't see any orders I will be putting in at this point for tomorrow.

Have a good one everybody!

Nathan
Well, a bit earlier I have just closed my shorts and placed a long position, USDCAD. Let's see how it turns out
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  • #48,916
  • Nov 30, 2009 10:22am Nov 30, 2009 10:22am
Quoting MattW
Scot,

Can you tell me some more about the analysis you did for this trade please?
I see it was off the 365 and a round num 1.50 with the 150 giving additional support. Did I miss anything? What are your targets on this one?
Matt,
Really it was just a short term move, I was hoping it would retest the highs on that chart and find support at the 1.5050 but it failed to reach it. I kept a real tight leash on it and got stopped out at 1.5033.
"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." Henry Ford
  • #48,917
  • Nov 30, 2009 10:25am Nov 30, 2009 10:25am
sighting....
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Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #48,918
  • Nov 30, 2009 10:25am Nov 30, 2009 10:25am
Quoting Scot Pippin'
Matt,
Really it was just a short term move, I was hoping it would retest the highs on that chart and find support at the 1.5050 but it failed to reach it. I kept a real tight leash on it and got stopped out at 1.5033.
Yeah I saw it rush away and reckoned you easily got BE and potentially a few pips to boot. I saw the pin on my charts but passed it by as I'm still learning all this hence all the questions!
  • #48,919
  • Nov 30, 2009 10:27am Nov 30, 2009 10:27am
Quoting benji533
Well, a bit earlier I have just closed my shorts and placed a long position, USDCAD. Let's see how it turns out
Benji,

Talking about your USD/CAD, what stops would you use for your touches off them trendlines?
Did you get stopped out on the previous test of the lower one that spiked through?
  • #48,920
  • Nov 30, 2009 10:35am Nov 30, 2009 10:35am
gbp/jpy. simple pattern trade.
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meine augen sind die sterne
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