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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #48,841
  • Nov 28, 2009 6:21pm Nov 28, 2009 6:21pm
Quoting TiaForex
Those sorts of posts are usually a thinly disguised advert for a signal service. And given how popular the J16 thread is, people try and ride the traffic and promote themselves. Usually they come in here, scream at everyone, stir the point and then announce they are going to set up a paid service. It's usually utter lies and garbage and we get one every now and again.

Anyone who's new, trust me on this as someone who has been down this road. I know you are craving a shortcut like a man crawling through the desert craves water.. I did too. I gave...
Thanks Aaron for reading between the lines of his post. I'm sure that's what he was all about.

Absolutuely . . . Persistence and Perseverance overrides skill every time in this business. Funny thing is that it does get easier.

Great post as usual my friend.

Jim
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #48,842
  • Nov 28, 2009 7:05pm Nov 28, 2009 7:05pm
Quoting jarroo
Thanks Aaron for reading between the lines of his post. I'm sure that's what he was all about.

Absolutuely . . . Persistence and Perseverance overrides skill every time in this business. Funny thing is that it does get easier.

Great post as usual my friend.

Jim
Good to see you back Jim. I've missed you round here. Hope you caught some of the big moves last week.

There's been a lovely discussion in PF about the yen pinbars. What do you think? My hunch is we're not quite done with yen strength. I wouldn't take them as buy and holds, but played Jarroo style they are strong setups. 50 pip stop 100 pip target super tight leash type trades.

UCAD daily also seems to be winding up nicely perhaps in preparation for a break that allows that monthly pinbar to play out.

What have you been looking at? There was a dream 1H GU bearish pin off a clear daily resistance level which I thought you would be all over. I missed it but hope you made some pips there.
  • #48,843
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:15pm Nov 28, 2009 10:15pm
I was reviewing some AUD/USD price action, and I noticed a few setups almost exactly the same as the bundyraider lesson on playing break+retrace moves. I thought I'd share them with you guys, and maybe you can point out something that I'm not even seeing, and also learn a little bit too.

Again, thanks to bundyraider for the original lesson on this type of trade...
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Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #48,844
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:15pm Nov 28, 2009 10:15pm
one more....
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Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #48,845
  • Nov 29, 2009 12:27am Nov 29, 2009 12:27am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
one more....

Yes breakout and pullbacks are one of my bread and butter. It is simplistic yet encompasses everything we do here.




Mike
  • #48,846
  • Nov 29, 2009 1:18am Nov 29, 2009 1:18am
Had 3 very busy nights on call. I'm off to sleep. But couldn't resist returning to the post for a few minutes. Trying to juggle a very demanding profession with the great hunger to learn trading that has completely engulfed me.

Can I just thank you guys (too many to mention) who regularly teach on this thread for instilling a sense of hope. I am making no headway in my trading, but each time I return to the thread you give me hope to persist.

Hope there is still space for me on the PF as I would like to join soon.
  • #48,847
  • Nov 29, 2009 4:20am Nov 29, 2009 4:20am
Tons of friday pinbars. I can spot at least 8 valid pinbars. Cant trade em all, i guess i have to look at the best option
  • #48,848
  • Edited 9:32am Nov 29, 2009 8:47am | Edited 9:32am
I wanted to discuss an alternative to going to BE and get your thoughts. So most of us make a decision to take off some and go to BE at first resistance. Most of the time the next bar will come back to test your entry and take you out. It seems an alternative can be take off half and move your stop below the first bar. You may take a minimalized loss at times but greatly increase the chances of surviving that retrace.

Do any of you do this sometimes? It reminds me of the DIBS method except you move your stop up a bit more. Also it can serve the purpose to not take big losses. Like Jim says once a bar breaks he's not inclined to take a big loss. I don't want to be in a trade that violates the entry bar, but I end up there if I don't execute a plan.
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"Whether you think you can or can't, you're right." Henry Ford
  • #48,849
  • Nov 29, 2009 10:04am Nov 29, 2009 10:04am
Well I have noticed a lot of PB's on Friday and all that jazz. I am going to go through each one of the ones that I see and weed out the good from the bad.

EU: This from what I have been reading is not even a PB at all, because the right eye didn't close inside the left eye. Would not even think of trading this just because of the horrible location as well.

USDCHF: Pretty much the same thing going on here as the EU. Only difference here is that the bar closed right on a Support line. Is it going to hold? I don't know. What I do know is that I won't even be looking at this one.

GBPUSD: Running into the same problem as the 2 above. Nothing really warranting a trade. It isn't at a swing low, and resistance is literally right above it.

USDJPY: This is the one that I am curious about. I would like to think this one is at a swing low. I went back a few years and I could not find anywhere to plot a support, so I just used the bottom of this PB.
So far out of the 4 majors this is the only one that really has any validity.
HUGE nose, with some great breathing room above it. Nothing but fresh air for about 90 pips on my chart.

First TP would be 87.42 and move stop to BE and let a little ride. 2nd TP would be 88.37, depending on PA.

USDCAD: Firstly I think I drawn my fib's wrong. I have not looked at this chart in a few days. PB isn't actually one once again. Poor location and poor room to make any pips initially.

I have a few more pairs open, but the 'PB's' that have shown up from this are all generally the same. Right eye does not close within Left eye, and not the best of locations.

Only 2 other that I might follow that are not pb's but decent location are EURJPY and GBPJPY.

I hope to get a few responses with some things I can drop and others that I can do better. Please I can handle constructive criticism. Between other peoples input and screen time, those are the only 2 ways I know to get better.
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  • #48,850
  • Edited 10:38am Nov 29, 2009 10:37am | Edited 10:38am
Hi Concept
Zooming out on my weekly chart, there is potential support below at 82. 50 ish, and 84.00 last touched Feb 1995.
Hope this helps
  • #48,851
  • Nov 29, 2009 10:40am Nov 29, 2009 10:40am
Quoting mbqb11
Yes breakout and pullbacks are one of my bread and butter. It is simplistic yet encompasses everything we do here.




Mike
What I love is how, after a while, all this stuff seems to knit together as one.
Breakouts and pullbacks are a great case in point. You can have a breakout and pullback to a horizontal PPZ, what James calls previous resistance turning into support and vice versa. You can play that with price action or as a touch. Or you can use a dynamic S/R level like an EMA in the same way. Or a trendline like in the AUD cases that Dan just showed.

And then you can look for times when the S/R level holds. The second time we hit a big S/R level (ie: a double top, killer with divergence) and the same with the other SR types listed above.

There are so many nuances and ideas that can be brought out from this one simple concept. In PF there are a few systems developed from it.

And once you begin to see it all stitched together like this it really does become pretty cool.
  • #48,852
  • Nov 29, 2009 10:59am Nov 29, 2009 10:59am
Quoting w buffet jnr
Hi Concept
Zooming out on my weekly chart, there is potential support below at 82. 50 ish, and 84.00 last touched Feb 1995.
Hope this helps
Thanks for the heads up. I never looked that far back, thought it would probably be a waste of time... guess I was wrong!
  • #48,853
  • Nov 29, 2009 11:08am Nov 29, 2009 11:08am
Quoting Concept
Thanks for the heads up. I never looked that far back, thought it would probably be a waste of time... guess I was wrong!
Hi concept, i only look at the daily t-f, so my main SR levels are taken from the weekly chart, and any additional interesting daily levels are added afterwards. I guess it all depends on what t-f you're trading off.

Regards
  • #48,854
  • Nov 29, 2009 11:21am Nov 29, 2009 11:21am

Quoting TiaForex
Good to see you back Jim. I've missed you round here. Hope you caught some of the big moves last week.

There's been a lovely discussion in PF about the yen pinbars. What do you think? My hunch is we're not quite done with yen strength. I wouldn't take them as buy and holds, but played Jarroo style they are strong setups. 50 pip stop 100 pip target super tight leash type trades.

UCAD daily also seems to be winding up nicely perhaps in preparation for a break that allows that monthly pinbar to play out.

What have you been looking at? There was...
Hey Aron
What's up brother?

If you are planing to take the Yen pins, be careful not to stand in rac's way


Hope you had a great weekend!

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  • #48,855
  • Edited 11:34am Nov 29, 2009 11:33am | Edited 11:34am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
one more....
Hey Dan,

nice spot. I traded exactly the same setup and took the strong BeOB (red arrow) or quadripple top lower close. No doubt here where to place the stop. Then another BeOB formed (yellow arrow) and I moved my stop. Then bullish pinbar formed and I moved my stop again and got stopped out.

Jim once showed the power of bearish or bullish outside bars after a consolidation as a break out pattern. This is exactly the case here.

Take care
kpt
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  • #48,856
  • Nov 29, 2009 11:46am Nov 29, 2009 11:46am
Quoting TiaForex
You can have a breakout and pullback to a horizontal PPZ, what James calls previous resistance turning into support and vice versa. You can play that with price action or as a touch. Or you can use a dynamic S/R level like an EMA in the same way. Or a trendline like in the AUD cases that Dan just showed.

The thing about the trendline break+retraces I just showed is that, the trendlines actually lined up with a horizontal PPZ. Just another form of strong confluence working to the advantage of J16 followers.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #48,857
  • Nov 29, 2009 11:46am Nov 29, 2009 11:46am
Hey C

I agree with you that the only one even worth looking at would be usd/jpy(which I am still on the fence about thus not trading). Also just to clarify technically speaking the e/u is a pin. As long as the open and close are within the prior bar then it is a pin like that. But again as you said the locations are horrible.

This was my response to some of these xxx/jpy pairs in the pf

This is a follow up to SLs Post and Aarons. I really don't like any of the xxx/jpy bars. They all closed extremely weak to me. Yes the usd/jpy had the best close of them all. I just don't like the way the bars have that weak close. Being they all occurred on a holiday week and on a friday has me a bit uneasy just like SL and Tia. If we had say the 85 round number running through the upper portion of the bar that would give me a better way to play it without having the need to have a potential full bar loss as I could cut out earlier. But if it breaks the high and reverses it would be hard to find a point to just cut out. I am going to pass on these and simply watch the lower timeframes on the jpy pairs. For example 145 on the gbp/jpy is not far off. Great spot to watch for a long or short.

Best
Mike

Quoting Concept
Well I have noticed a lot of PB's on Friday and all that jazz. I am going to go through each one of the ones that I see and weed out the good from the bad.

EU: This from what I have been reading is not even a PB at all, because the right eye didn't close inside the left eye. Would not even think of trading this just because of the horrible location as well.

USDCHF: Pretty much the same thing going on here as the EU. Only difference here is that the bar closed right on a Support line. Is it going to hold? I don't know. What I do know is that I...
  • #48,858
  • Nov 29, 2009 11:51am Nov 29, 2009 11:51am
Quoting kptMisiu
Hey Dan,

nice spot. I traded exactly the same setup and took the strong BeOB (red arrow) or quadripple top lower close. No doubt here where to place the stop. Then another BeOB formed (yellow arrow) and I moved my stop. Then bullish pinbar formed and I moved my stop again and got stopped out.

Jim once showed the power of bearish or bullish outside bars after a consolidation as a break out pattern. This is exactly the case here.

Take care
kpt
Very nice. Unfortunately I wasn't around monitoring my computer when these setups were playing out. This week I'm going to be watching my charts for this type of trade very closely.

Plays like this seem the best way to start on a weekly or daily chart, draw lines on what looks like head and shoulder patterns. Zoom to 4hr, search for more double top/head & shoulder paters. Then look for trendline break+trendline retrace+PPZ+price action.

A possibly great technique for setting tight stops on longer term trades.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #48,859
  • Nov 29, 2009 11:54am Nov 29, 2009 11:54am
My first post in this thread. After reviewing the daily charts on close friday, I wanted to get some opinions on pins. This was definately the place to get educated opinions.

My concern about the price action stems from the low volume and that prices can get pushed around a little easier. Perhaps the market will be even more or less volatile at open. I will be watching. I would rather see this price action during a time when there are no holidays and in a different time of year. lol

Nothing is ever completely perfect but the pair that looks more promising to me is u/j as well.

Let's see how this plays out. I will trade what I see.

Good trading all!
  • #48,860
  • Nov 29, 2009 12:01pm Nov 29, 2009 12:01pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey C

I agree with you that the only one even worth looking at would be usd/jpy(which I am still on the fence about thus not trading). Also just to clarify technically speaking the e/u is a pin. As long as the open and close are within the prior bar then it is a pin like that. But again as you said the locations are horrible.

This was my response to some of these xxx/jpy pairs in the pf

This is a follow up to SLs Post and Aarons. I really don't like any of the xxx/jpy bars. They all closed extremely weak to me. Yes the usd/jpy had the best...
I agree with what you said there for sure. That was my next question (once I got to work, ran out of time before I could post).

Since it was a friday bar and the fact that the 2nd most traded market was closed for that day does make me a bit leary about trusting the bars from that day.

I am not too comfortable on going to 4hr yet, but I do keep looking at it to see what is going on there and see how they react to daily time lines.
Hopefully in the next few months I will be comfortable!
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