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  • #166,701
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:08am Nov 28, 2009 10:08am
Quoting Xaron
History repeats itself. Looks like we evil krauts might help out the US in the future. You know the history and the reasons for hyperinflation?

Actually we have learned from history the hard way. That's why we are a bit shy if it goes to money printing like there is no tomorrow.
I'm all for hyperinflation - got a 5% fixed rate on the mortgage
  • #166,702
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:11am Nov 28, 2009 10:11am
Quoting Xaron
...Looks like we evil krauts might help out the US in the future. ...
...stranger things have happened my friend. And probably will again.

Hey Xaron, I like your new/old avatar much better than those touchy feely things you had goin on for awhile... nice to see you back scarin' all the little kids.

It even gives me a shiver now and then...
FUBAR...
  • #166,703
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:45am Nov 28, 2009 10:45am
Alright, maybe some facts from one who knows fundamentals: Chuck Butler.

And something interesting about those "only" $12 trillion of debts of the US:

Special Weekend Issue of A Pfennig for Your Thoughts!

Why America Is Flat Broke

…And How to Shield Yourself from Miserable U.S. Economy, Soaring Deficits, and the Falling Dollar (In Three Days or Less!) Good day... And Welcome to a Special Weekend Edition of the Pfennig! Lately, several of you have asked me for the full story on the debt situation here in the United States. It seems you all want to know how that debt situation affects YOU, the average tax-paying American waltzing down Main Street. Of course, long-term readers know that’s something I cover fairly often here in the Pfennig. But I never have time to give you the FULL story...with all the gory details about the bankrupt Uncle Sam, TRILLION dollar debts, and the sinking dollar. More importantly, I never have enough time to explain how you can get out of the U.S. dollar fast...so you can escape the rising deficit situation here in the U.S. Now, I hate to interrupt your lovely weekend, but a special Saturday issue seemed like the perfect opportunity to cover all that. So if you’re game, grab some coffee, and we’ll jump right in! Let’s start with some facts first. As of today, the U.S. National Debt is nearly $12 Trillion dollars. That’s a monster in itself, but it’s nothing compared to what the U.S. really owes…

Do You Have $344,000 to Pay Uncle Sam? Well You Should.

You see most people have no idea what the U.S. government owes on “unfunded obligations.” That’s government-ese for entitlement programs like Medicare, Social Security etc. Right now, the total unfunded obligations sits at $106 Trillion dollars! That’s more than 780% MORE than the “national debt!” Now, let’s do a little math… If you charged Americans for the national debt, each citizen would have to shell out $38,940. If you just charged taxpayers, that tab would climb to $104,000 per person. Our nation’s Total Assets now stand at $74 Trillion dollars, or $240,000 per citizen. Now add in the “unfunded obligations” at $106 Trillion, and every citizen would have to shell out $344,000 to keep us afloat. In other words…as a country, we are flat-broke! By the way, if you don't believe me, you can go to the National Debt Clock website and see for yourself. But I warn you don’t go there if you have a weak stomach.

How in the World Did Our Debts Reach This High?

This deficit spending all began in the 80’s. However, at that time, the government was much smaller than it is today. Let’s talk about some fallacies that exist when people talk about deficit spending that began in the 80’s in the Reagan administration… Ronald Reagan increased the deficit by 35% in eight years, or $37 Billion per year. At the time it seemed like a lot. After all, the U.S. was a surplus nation at the time. In fact, economists viewed this 35% increase in eight years as “excessive.” But when you compare it to the first eight weeks of the current administration, when Obama and his team increased our deficit by 435%, the Reagan years don’t look so “excessive” any longer! Now I’m not comparing parties here. I’m just making the point that deficit spending started more than 25 years ago, and continues today only at a much faster pace.

In my opinion, the biggest deficit in this country is a leadership deficit. We have people in Washington D.C. that continue to make bad choices and spend, instead of dealing with a solution to reduce the government and the deficit.
Unfortunately all Americans on the street are paying for this leadership deficit where it really hurts…in our currency. The U.S. dollar has dropped 37% in value since it peaked in 2001. And the situation does not look to improve anytime soon.

Why the Dirt-Cheap Buck Helps the U.S. and Hurts You

Here’s the real rub folks… No matter how Treasury Secretary Geithner might preach about “maintaining a strong dollar,” as he said again at the U.S. embassy recently...the truth is a weaker dollar benefits the U.S. government. Of course, the weak dollar also hangs Americans out to dry. We get stuck with the bill as every dollar we have buys us less. But the weaker dollar allows U.S. exports to be more competitive in the world. The weaker dollar also allows multi-national business to enjoy huge profits overseas. Oh! And here’s the 800-lb Gorilla in the room that I almost forgot about… The weak dollar gives the U.S. government the ability to pay back our deficits with “cheaper dollars.” It means that Uncle Sam doesn’t have an incentive to pay off our debts. That’s the cheese that binds for the dollar folks! One day this will all come crashing down like a house of cards, folks… and when that happens, you’ll want to have some cash outside the dollar. Trust me.
  • #166,704
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:57am Nov 28, 2009 10:57am
Quoting Xaron
Alright, maybe some facts from one who knows fundamentals: Chuck Butler.

And something interesting about those "only" $12 trillion of debts of the US:

[i]Special Weekend Issue of A Pfennig for Your Thoughts!

Why America Is Flat Broke

…And How to Shield Yourself from Miserable U.S. Economy, Soaring Deficits, and the Falling Dollar (In Three Days or Less!)...
Very nice article Xaron, just what I though, they want this baby weak!!!
  • #166,705
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:57am Nov 28, 2009 10:57am
Quoting Xaron
Alright, maybe some facts from one who knows fundamentals: Chuck Butler.

And something interesting about those "only" $12 trillion of debts of the US:

Special Weekend Issue of A Pfennig for Your Thoughts!

Why America Is Flat Broke

[i]…And How to Shield Yourself from Miserable U.S. Economy, Soaring Deficits, and the Falling Dollar (In Three Days or Less!) Good day... And Welcome to a Special Weekend Edition of the Pfennig! Lately, several of you have asked me for the full story on the debt situation here in the United...
Inflation makes a currency stronger, as does an increase in the money supply, which is correlated with inflation. So if the US is printing so many dollars, why isn't the dollar getting stronger? Because the EU is printing money faster and seeing higher inflation.
  • #166,706
  • Nov 28, 2009 11:02am Nov 28, 2009 11:02am
The STRONGEST correlation you will find in currencies is inflation. Inflation makes currencies stronger because the expection of a rate increase to control it.

EDIT: I'm talking about euro here, I shouldn't generalize and say all currencies because I haven't done that analysis and I'm sure it differs depending on central bank policies
  • #166,707
  • Nov 28, 2009 11:04am Nov 28, 2009 11:04am
Quoting Protogenos
The STRONGEST correlation you will find in currencies is inflation. Inflation makes currencies stronger because the expection of a rate increase to control it.
Is that why Zimbabwean dollars were so strong in the past decade?
  • #166,708
  • Nov 28, 2009 11:08am Nov 28, 2009 11:08am
Quoting Protogenos
The STRONGEST correlation you will find in currencies is inflation. Inflation makes currencies stronger because the expection of a rate increase to control it.

EDIT: I'm talking about euro here, I shouldn't generalize and say all currencies because I haven't done that analysis and I'm sure it differs depending on central bank policies
Just seen your edit....

You're right, it was quite a generalisation.
  • #166,709
  • Nov 28, 2009 11:18am Nov 28, 2009 11:18am
Quoting gammase1
Just seen your edit....

You're right, it was quite a generalisation.
Yeah, I only trade EUR/USD, so everything I say is based on that analysis. Took me a sec to realize I was being extremely general. But with EUR/USD, about a .97 correlation. It's amazing.
  • #166,710
  • Nov 28, 2009 11:20am Nov 28, 2009 11:20am
you guys are going in circles
Attached Image
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #166,711
  • Nov 28, 2009 12:21pm Nov 28, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting Xaron
History repeats itself. Looks like we evil krauts might help out the US in the future. You know the history and the reasons for hyperinflation?

Actually we have learned from history the hard way. That's why we are a bit shy if it goes to money printing like there is no tomorrow.
Yes but ecb is printing money faster than fed, by expanding its balance sheet faster.
  • #166,712
  • Nov 28, 2009 12:26pm Nov 28, 2009 12:26pm
Quoting Xaron
Alright, maybe some facts from one who knows fundamentals: Chuck Butler.

And something interesting about those "only" $12 trillion of debts of the US:

Special Weekend Issue of A Pfennig for Your Thoughts!

Why America Is Flat Broke

[i]…And How to Shield Yourself from Miserable U.S. Economy, Soaring Deficits, and the Falling Dollar (In Three Days or Less!) Good day... And Welcome to a Special Weekend Edition of the Pfennig! Lately, several of you have asked me for the full story on the debt situation here in the United...
Mate those obligations are not for one year or one decade, mate and therefore are out of context, plus American gov doesn't have to fund them.
Why does Europe have higher Credit default swap cost, oh because it is more likely to go bankrupt, lets just put this in perspective, mcdonalds is less likely to go bankrupt than Europe.
You want an argument well hear you have one, at least there are people being born in the us, in Europe in some major countries under current projections you will have no population in 100-200 years, Europe will be like a desert, Europe has no raw materials, what does it have brussels and history, but they never learn from history,
  • #166,713
  • Nov 28, 2009 12:41pm Nov 28, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting lloydblankfe
mcdonalds is less likely to go bankrupt than Europe.
Stop now, please stop!
  • #166,714
  • Nov 28, 2009 12:42pm Nov 28, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting Xaron
Stop now, please stop!
i am not making this up, look at credit default swaps, protection against bankruptcy
  • #166,715
  • Nov 28, 2009 12:45pm Nov 28, 2009 12:45pm
Quoting lloydblankfe
under current projections you will have no population in 100-200 years
Pff... Yes, I know those "projections". And things change in less than 100 years, that's for sure.

Quote
Europe has no raw materials, what does it have brussels and history, but they never learn from history,

Oh sure. But the US learns from his history, mhh? That's not a fault of Europe, it's just a general fault of the mankind, no matter which country. And we have no raw materials? Uh oh...

So how do americans see the world?

http://www.funny-games.biz/images/pi...-world-map.jpg

Just a joke of course.
  • #166,716
  • Nov 28, 2009 12:48pm Nov 28, 2009 12:48pm
Quoting Xaron
Pff... Yes, I know those "projections". And things change in less than 100 years, that's for sure.



Oh sure. But the US learns from his history, mhh? That's not a fault of Europe, it's just a general fault of the mankind, no matter which country. And we have no raw materials? Uh oh...

So how do americans see the world?

http://www.funny-games.biz/images/pi...-world-map.jpg

Just a joke of course.
Europeans have trouble accepting their time is over, and think they will be powerful again, why ridicule americans, do you have to take things that far, you are very offensive. I have stated facts. No thing have not changed mate Spain was a poor country when it joined eu, but had higher fertility rate than now, where under current projections there will be no spanish person around in over 100 years.
  • #166,717
  • Nov 28, 2009 12:48pm Nov 28, 2009 12:48pm
Quoting Xaron
Pff... Yes, I know those "projections". And things change in less than 100 years, that's for sure.



Oh sure. But the US learns from his history, mhh? That's not a fault of Europe, it's just a general fault of the mankind, no matter which country. And we have no raw materials? Uh oh...

So how do americans see the world?

http://www.funny-games.biz/images/pi...-world-map.jpg

Just a joke of course.
LOL i think i am in the evil doers region where bombs go
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #166,718
  • Nov 28, 2009 12:54pm Nov 28, 2009 12:54pm
Quoting lloydblankfe
Europeans have trouble accepting their time is over, and think they will be powerful again
Ok, so you know obviously more than the rest of the world. I would never say that the Dollar is lost... Oh... Hmm... well I did. Wow, you got me!

I know god's own country has a great (short) history full of vict...ories and vict...ims but yes, they always recover very fast. I really like the guys there (no kidding, really!) and I'm amazed how they pull themself out of the deepest shit, where (especially we Germans) are notoric pessimists. I agree that we have a demographic problem at the moment but I don't see how this would impact the Euro next week. I'm here to make some money and this gets more and more off. I'm not even sure if there will be an Euro in 100 years or a US Dollar, maybe we all pay with gold coins again and Pizza Hut is the only restaurant which has survived...
  • #166,719
  • Nov 28, 2009 12:54pm Nov 28, 2009 12:54pm
After America freed you from communism, helped you well not you as you are german, helped Europe during war, you become agressive and think your on top of the world, i have ended my argument with you as i think you cannot keep up. Just accept things as they are, Future is in Asia, they don't come looking for work asking how much holiday they get like Europeans, they say can they work. When you ask someone in Asia what their dream is they will it is to be entrepeneur to have a job, when you ask someone in Europe what their dream is they will say to retire- Jim Rogers said that
  • #166,720
  • Nov 28, 2009 12:58pm Nov 28, 2009 12:58pm
Quoting lloydblankfe
After America freed you from communism, helped you well not you as you are german, helped Europe during war, you become agressive and think your on top of the world, i have ended my argument with you as i think you cannot keep up. Just accept things as they are, Future is in Asia, they don't come looking for work asking how much holiday they get like Europeans, they say can they work.
So future is in Asia, alright. I can live with that. Those things happen in cycles and even Asia can't grow indefinitely. I predict something now: As soon as we have our first colonies on Mars it will outperform all other planets in our sol system.

BTW: Not America freed us from communism. It was the communism itself which did break down. It was Mikhail Gorbachev who held back the russian army to fight against their own people. I know, that doesn't sound like a hero american thing but that's a fact. Luckily we had no nuclear war scenario in Europe...
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