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  • #166,681
  • Nov 28, 2009 8:22am Nov 28, 2009 8:22am
Quoting gammase1
It's the weekend, Micho. I'm just responding to a clown, nothing more.
i know i know, i dont know if he is clown or no but all this discussion and subject of fundamentals make me feel weird... why do we care about this? i like math
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #166,682
  • Nov 28, 2009 8:43am Nov 28, 2009 8:43am
Quoting micho
i know i know, i dont know if he is clown or no but all this discussion and subject of fundamentals make me feel weird... why do we care about this? i like math
micho - does your TA tell you there will be a sell-off from Russian bomb?

Does your TA tell you when Black Swan will fly over, squat and dump a big load of swan-poo on your charts?
TRADE FOR SWAP
  • #166,683
  • Nov 28, 2009 8:47am Nov 28, 2009 8:47am
Quoting cgldsmth
the spectre of terrorism has hit Russia.

----> asset sell-off on market opening. Gold and EU will fall hard and fast.
Cheaper assets.

  • #166,684
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:30am Nov 28, 2009 9:30am
Quoting cgldsmth
micho - does your TA tell you there will be a sell-off from Russian bomb?

Does your TA tell you when Black Swan will fly over, squat and dump a big load of swan-poo on your charts?
it doesn't tell me that but it tells me not to go into a trade prior to these events also tells me where to exit on my open positions before your black swan flies over and dump her poo on my chart. so technically before the poo is released i will be out and away while everybody else still arguing about fundamentals
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #166,685
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:32am Nov 28, 2009 9:32am
this clown just does not get it, xaron add up external debt of eurozone and you get over 16 trillion by the way the number has increased to about 21 trilion since last year.

gammase, mate, net external debt is calculated by debt owed to foreigners plus the debt of foreigners owed to a county. Eurozone is a net debtor nation.
your thinking of
equity= assets- liabilities

my point is there are some fantastics countries in Africa like Botswana, Ghana that are getting productivity growth faster than in Europe.I said they are getting less bureaucratic and eu is getting more bureaucratic, i didn't say they are less bureaucratic at the moment, they at least are beginning to see power corrupts, total power totally corrupts,whereas in Europe they want more power.

What a country that went bankrupt in 1919 and then after ww2 had to be bailed out by America with Marshall plan......(Germany)
  • #166,686
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:32am Nov 28, 2009 9:32am
i have these two trades carrying over the weekend

whether you black swan come or not, i would have already closed the trades in the right place
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When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #166,687
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:34am Nov 28, 2009 9:34am
Quoting lloydblankfe
this clown just does not get it, xaron add up external debt of eurozone and you get over 16 trillion by the way the number has increased to about 21 trilion since last year.

gammase, mate, net external debt is calculated by debt owed to foreigners plus the debt of foreigners owed to a county. Eurozone is a net debtor nation.
your thinking of
equity= assets- liabilities

my point is there are some fantastics countries in Africa like Botswana, Ghana that are getting productivity growth faster than in Europe.

What a country that went bankrupt...
what a country went into 2 world wars within 20 years span against the whole world (GERMANY)

shh enough this discussion, its going no where
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #166,688
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:34am Nov 28, 2009 9:34am
Quoting micho
i know i know, i dont know if he is clown or no but all this discussion and subject of fundamentals make me feel weird... why do we care about this? i like math
Ok, lets talk math...what kind of analysis do you perform? Most people use pre-canned TA. I prefer the use of zscores, regressions, and I even use SVMs to cluster data. I've used neural networks, but I don't find them consistent enough. I sometimes use genetic algorithms to find appropriate weights for my models, but again, data mining seems to overfit things.
  • #166,689
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:37am Nov 28, 2009 9:37am
Quoting micho
what a country went into 2 world wars within 20 years span against the whole world (GERMANY)

shh enough this discussion, its going no where
yes wars they knew they had little chance of winning and yet still went against the trend.
  • #166,690
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:37am Nov 28, 2009 9:37am
Quoting Protogenos
Ok, lets talk math...what kind of analysis do you perform? Most people use pre-canned TA. I prefer the use of zscores, regressions, and I even use SVMs to cluster data. I've used neural networks, but I don't find them consistent enough. I sometimes use genetic algorithms to find appropriate weights for my models, but again, data mining seems to overfit things.
i will leave this answer for the newbies
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #166,691
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:39am Nov 28, 2009 9:39am
Quoting lloydblankfe
xaron you think you are clever, your not and will have your smirk wiped of your face, that deficit i don't know what it refers to i assume its government debt.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of..._external_debt

This is from 2008 where it shows German external debt at 4.5 trillion you are not clever do not try to bend facts.Yes the debt is above 100 percent of gdp and is so for most European countries.

The truth always hurts.
I'm glad you pointed this out. Not saying either you or Xaron is right, but I'd like to spend some time analyzing this. One thing that I've noticed however, is that countries that run deficits tend to grow while countries that have surpluses don't grow as fast. Maybe that is ancient history though...
  • #166,692
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:39am Nov 28, 2009 9:39am
Quoting lloydblankfe
yes wars they knew they had little chance of winning and yet still went against the trend.
they had a chance if they didnt get stuck in a very bad winter in Russia and if the USA didnt come for help.

with Germans you cant predict.

what are you waiting for? the germans to arrive?
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #166,693
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:43am Nov 28, 2009 9:43am
Quoting micho
they had a chance if they didnt get stuck in a very bad winter in Russia and if the USA didnt come for help.

with Germans you cant predict.

what are you waiting for? the germans to arrive?
they already have, run the eu.

A chance.

Europe cannot get productivity to rise, and with decline in working population there is in reality a decrease in gdp.

Growth in productivity+ change in working population= gdp growth.
  • #166,694
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:44am Nov 28, 2009 9:44am
Quoting micho
i will leave this answer for the newbies
Haha, come on, don't tell me you're a H+L+C/3 kind of guy?
  • #166,695
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:49am Nov 28, 2009 9:49am
Quoting lloydblankfe
they already have, run the eu.

A chance.

Europe cannot get productivity to rise, and with decline in working population there is in reality a decrease in gdp.

Growth in productivity+ change in working population= gdp growth.
i really dont care about that, i dont know why you care about that
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #166,696
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:49am Nov 28, 2009 9:49am
Quoting Protogenos
Haha, come on, don't tell me you're a H+L+C/3 kind of guy?
LOL
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When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #166,697
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:55am Nov 28, 2009 9:55am
Quoting lloydblankfe
they already have, run the eu.

A chance.

Europe cannot get productivity to rise, and with decline in working population there is in reality a decrease in gdp.

Growth in productivity+ change in working population= gdp growth.
Something that many developed countries have to face is a narrowing population pyramid. Puts strains on social security and health care here in the US, and I'm sure in the EU as well. China and India will be interesting to watch because their populations are already so large. I think it should eventually limit their economic growth rate. Brazil looks promising.
  • #166,698
  • Nov 28, 2009 9:56am Nov 28, 2009 9:56am
Quoting micho
USDJPY next target 85.5x (possible gap down)
EURCAD next target 1.590x (possible gap up)
EURUSD and GPBUSD not so clear (possible gap up)
GPBJPY next target 140.3x (possible gap down)

USDZAR next target adjustable 1.362x
When life gives you lemons, make lemonade
  • #166,699
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:03am Nov 28, 2009 10:03am
Most European countries also have negative FDI for 2008, America was actually positive.
  • #166,700
  • Nov 28, 2009 10:04am Nov 28, 2009 10:04am
Quoting lloydblankfe
What a country that went bankrupt in 1919 and then after ww2 had to be bailed out by America with Marshall plan......(Germany)
History repeats itself. Looks like we evil krauts might help out the US in the future. You know the history and the reasons for hyperinflation?

Actually we have learned from history the hard way. That's why we are a bit shy if it goes to money printing like there is no tomorrow.
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