Central Banks & Big Players

entered but this is not my style of trading.. SL is still ridiculously small still

support and resistance are golden, put a 5 pips sl on them and go to bed

yeah, the 88.20 level held yesterday for few hours, about 20 pips available but then got shattered easily. yen is too strong right now. thought there would be bigger bounce of either 87.00 area or 88.00 but no.

looks like 30 or so pips were available from your short. nice!

Textbook trade. Took 20 pips.

http://img140.imageshack.us/img140/304/ex61z.th.gif

beautiful

What I need to figure out is those trades that I can hold for more than 20 pips. Theoretically could have gained up to 100 pips. One trade would have made my goal for the entire week. Problem with this is it usually takes several tries and you have to be comforatable with letting go of small profits for the big ones.

the last chart tony posted showed an abrupt move and then a slower move right back to the trend/levels prior...
Now that I have an EA watching ticks that alerts me to these sudden moves I have noticed this pattern is quite common...

What I am thinking is this price action is showing a big player moving the market. Or maybe this is someone dumping currency because they need too, and it seemed like a good time to do it. In either case what does the retracement tell us? Underlying limits/liquidity (order structure)? Was this just a forced move down to find/hit some stops?

What I would like to do next is start logging these sudden moves with my EA and then seeing if we can gain any knowledge through analysis of the data. I think the keys are in the timing and the state of the market at the time it occurs. Hopefully we can get even 'pickier' about these trades if we know the highest probability set-ups...

Another thing I would like to do is try to catch and compare these moves from different data feeds.... Maybe even compare it to order information from the CME futures... I am thinking the subtle differences between these might contain traces of the market information we dont normally have access to....

Most importantly though is I think tony is really on to something, there is something 'special' about these price spikes.

Hi,

I am getting more and more busy at work now so cant keep an eye open on my other screen! Very annoying.

Has someone managed to make an alert...not an EA just an alert of sudden price movement so I can quickly flick screens to see if its a potential set up? I know im asking for a lot but I would make it if I knew how to programme...

Thanks

Oz

lots of action

Hi Tony,

Do you look for thin-market volatility specifically as part of this trading strategy?

Exactly, when the market is already wild it's too late!!!!!!!!
10 pip candles are out of proportions since they come too often and are irrelevant. You have to jump on the first one and ride the train... it's often too late if the volatility is too big after

entry levels on USD/JPY... mini support and resistance levels... very interesting

n.b. this is a 30 sec chart

Yup. I have been trading this way for a while, typically looking for breakouts on transitions out of thin market conditions. The FO (including 30-60 min. prior) is my fave but run-in to Tokyo open can also be good. Flag breakouts, typically. imho probably one of the easiest & consistently profitable trade scenarios. I watch the 10s chart for entry refinement... The only major difference (I think) I have with the gist of the thread method is I aim lower, typically happy with 15-20 pip targets. If I'm nimble, I will move sl to BE and try to ride those for more - but if I'm shooting straight I catch something that moves to 15-20p too fast to do that. But its all good.

Thanks for your thread & Happy Trades!

hey, could you kindly elaborate on what you look for on the 10 sec chart?

Flags etc...any charts?

Thanks

Oz

In the 10s chart I am looking for the exhaustion/initiation of momentum. PA reversals based on stalls and candlestick patterns show up in the 10s tf just as they do on the M15 tf or elsewhere. Flags and consolidation runs are identified in the larger tf charts - m15-m5-m1.

Typically I will start scalping in that thin pa when it gets big enough to scalp - say min. 10pip range - and I will be scalping in the direction of the anticipated breakout. If I'm fortunate I will be in the middle of a scalp when the breakout hits, and I will just enjoy the ride. If I'm wrong about the breakout direction or if there is a false one, then I burn a sl.

Otherwise, you can set a limit order to try to catch the breakout & these can be set with extremely low r:r - say a 2 pip sl and a 10 pip profit target. Set these traps above/below the ranging pa bandwith and then forget them. Just like any kind of trapping, you might have traps that never get touched, or you might have to pull & re-bait some, but you will catch some pips. I like the former approach because it fits into the run-in to set hours I have for scalping anyway, typically.

I will post a chart (or a video) sometime when I trade this setup...

http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/1557/ex62.th.gif

In @ 1.6357 but do to a keystroke error, exited @ 1.6360.

omg don't you hate it when that happens? I'm really embarassed to admit it, but I lost about $500 today, hitting BUY instead of SELL orders - jeez not once but three times. But today was such a pipfeast, I can just laugh about it...

the fool can you please show us more examples of your trading methods charts etc?

yes, I will - but I need to make a screen capture video of a live session, which is something I have never done before, so bear with me. The still screenshots don't get a whole lot across, because sometimes I will do as much as 25 trades in an hour and the pic gets pretty busy & confusing.

You can get something of my trading ideas and rites of passage at my journal thread "4% a Day Forever" and there are screenshots in there. It will be interesting to try to make the video of 10s chart trading & I will be back with that in the near future.

Thanks for your interest & Happy Trades.

I believe I will have to insert a new rule to the system.

It would be something that will restrict new entries after the FIRST INITIAL 10 pip candle, breaking out of low volatility.

I'll think about the formulation today.

In high volatility, 10 pip candles come so often and a lot of false alerts occur - not good.