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  • #7,961
  • Nov 25, 2009 4:44pm Nov 25, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
I see a great setup on USD/CAD.

Add to this that the Russian Central Bank is long on CAD
Alexandra/Nicola,

Since you are more into funny mentals than I, what is your take on this?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,962
  • Nov 25, 2009 4:44pm Nov 25, 2009 4:44pm
Quoting strat
.........7, 8, 9, 10 Duh!

Keyser, you must have your head up where the sun don't shine!

let's see what the guys from Wall Street has to say about this.

How many posts will it take for you to realise that NY traders have, for the most part, been ON HOLIDAY all this week. Certainly today they have been GONE!

LOOK AT THE VOLUME (OR LACK OF VOLUME) ON FUTURES & COMMODITIES CONTRACTS!
Strat, it's clear now.

Fear of the dark!
KS
  • #7,963
  • Nov 25, 2009 4:49pm Nov 25, 2009 4:49pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Hey Keyser,

Just a couple of things from your chart i noticed.

Your sell stop entry looks to be placed wrong, it should be 10 pips min below the BEOB.

The other is in regards to adding to positions while in the demo phase.

I was adding to my positions on a lot of my trades and honestly i had no clue where was the best place to do it. It caused a lot of my initial PASR trades that were in a paper profit to be eaten up by my adding to positions incorrectly. Which in turn had an affect on my confidence. So much so that i quit dong it altogether.

I...
Craig, very well said.

Keyser - I don't want to discourage you at all from doing your own research and testing

But I do!

Like I said in an earlier post you are taking your new found knowledge in PASR and going wild - much like a guy with two dicks!

Slow down! Do ONE step at a time. PERFECT one step before moving on to the next. Doing it your way will bust your account within a month or even less.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,964
  • Nov 25, 2009 4:52pm Nov 25, 2009 4:52pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
As we all progress further on the path i am sure Strat will show us some good tricks for doing so.
Ha and what does he post NEXT.....

WOW is all i can say!

These posts excite the hell out of me! So much knowledge is inside every one it's hard to comprehend sometimes.

This makes me want to stick to my plan and make good consistent PASR trades more and more in anticipation of what lies ahead on the Path Of Learning.
  • #7,965
  • Nov 25, 2009 4:56pm Nov 25, 2009 4:56pm
Quoting strat
Although the BOSS and I don’t celebrate Thanksgiving, I will give all on here, including the Lurkers, Shurkers and free meal collectors, my gift for Thanksgiving.

More ways to trade with the trend using my 20/50 shadow.

In many posts, we have discussed the value and use of our 20 and 50 MAs. Here I will show how I use them to keep me in a trend.

[font=Arial]Let’s assume we already know how to enter and exit trades using PASR so this will focus on trading for the long haul. SR levels have...
Hi Strathttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Thanks for this gift, your trading id just out of this world. Need to study it thoroughly.

Happy thanksgiving.

Jideck
  • #7,966
  • Nov 25, 2009 5:27pm Nov 25, 2009 5:27pm
Quoting Donadoney
By the way I have a a S/R line at 2.1743, can you maybe take a look at that, just for debating's sake and maybe let me know why you may or may not agree with that level?
I have checked boss/worker line/candle charts and all I can see is a minor SR at 2.16 from boss line chart. There is also another minor one at 2.13, but I didn't want to put these on my chart to keep it clean (otherwise your chart will be full of minor SRs).
  • #7,967
  • Nov 25, 2009 5:29pm Nov 25, 2009 5:29pm
Quoting strat
Alexandra/Nicola,
Since you are more into funny mentals than I, what is your take on this?
It certainly got the CAD moving early this morning!
When so much US debt (50%) in treasuries is held by countries outside the US they can't be happy that the USD is being so devalued and the yield is so unattractive. I think it goes back to the beginning of this crisis, the less debt a country has the easier it will be for them to recover and it will show in the currencies eventually as the market decides who is best positioned to recover fastest.
The CDS (credit default swap rates, the cost of insuring against a country defaulting on its debt) on some countries debts have leapt this week (check Greece and last night Dubai).
Gold is on fire and its all connected.

The USD got really beaten up today because of yesterday's FOMC statement where the Fed described the devaluation in the dollar as "orderly". Firstly the Fed almost never talks about the dollar (that is usually the treasury) so to mention it is a big deal. The market is taking this to mean the Fed are comfortable with the direction and speed the dollar is moving, i.e. they don't mind if the dollar continues to decline.

I also read some good stories this week about how if China goes into trade deficit next year it may DE-value the Remnimbi, not float it. If China does get a trade deficit that could have big implications for the USD. The trade surplus slush fund is what they use to buy US debt with. If they stop buying and start selling then the game is over.

Anyway short the dollar seems like a very crowded trade. If everyone is selling and no one is left to buy then there can sometimes have unpleasant bumps in the road.
  • #7,968
  • Nov 25, 2009 5:36pm Nov 25, 2009 5:36pm
I keep hearing the parabolic leap in gold is because of the dollar but a couple of times this week Gold has rallied and dragged the dollar with it.
Gold is approaching the lofty 1200 level.
I have been practising with fib extensions to help when price goes where it has not gone before and I put it on the swings at the start of the coil at the beginning of the year and price seems to be really respecting them.
Im bringing it up now because if gold pauses or corrects some here it will move the dollar with it.
First chart is the weekly chart with fib extensions which shows the next one at 1196 and we are almost there.

Second chart is the daily chart. Strat has taught that that if you measure the furthest distance between (hi/lo) at the start of the coil pattern then when the pattern breaks out that is the distance that you can expect it to go, projected from the breakout point.
In the case of gold you can argue that the low at the start of the coil was about 800 and the high about 1000 and the breakout also at 1000 which also puts us to .... 1200

Obviously there is no price action to short gold here in a parabolic uptrend. I am just mentioning it because it does affect the currencies and its something to watch.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gold weekly.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gold daily.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #7,969
  • Nov 25, 2009 5:41pm Nov 25, 2009 5:41pm
Who is watching that 87.10 level on USDJPY for a triple bottom then?
I know Keyser Sose is ...
  • #7,970
  • Nov 25, 2009 5:42pm Nov 25, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting strat
Although the BOSS and I don’t celebrate Thanksgiving, I will give all on here, including the Lurkers, Shurkers and free meal collectors, my gift for Thanksgiving.
DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME!
Again, more very good stuff. I thought that was all until...

Quoting strat
OK, I’m bored and trying to look busy so that the BOSS doesn’t get me to go shopping with her (Ugh!).

There is so much more to SEEING BEYOND THE CANDLES but hopefully this will be a start to open your mind.
Carried away or not, this is more very good stuff. Even knowing the little I do, seeing more real life examples such as these are what I live for on this thread. Like the Karate Kid, I feel like I've been sanding the floor for so long I've sorta lost sight of the goal. Thank you taking the time to show some of the inner workings.
-m
  • #7,971
  • Nov 25, 2009 5:51pm Nov 25, 2009 5:51pm

We knew on April 11 that the bottom was confirmed and if you don’t know why, you need to go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning.

I just want to confirm my understanding... on April 11 was the bottom confirmed because the candle closed above the previous LH on Mar 20?

Thanks Strat and everyone else who contributes to this thread on a regular basis.
  • #7,972
  • Edited 7:55pm Nov 25, 2009 5:51pm | Edited 7:55pm
Quoting elitejets
It certainly got the CAD moving early this morning!
When so much US debt (50%) in treasuries is held by countries outside the US they can't be happy that the USD is being so devalued and the yield is so unattractive. I think it goes back to the beginning of this crisis, the less debt a country has the easier it will be for them to recover and it will show in the currencies eventually as the market decides who is best positioned to recover fastest.
The CDS (credit default swap rates, the cost of insuring against a country defaulting on its...

Only for you would I answer on Thanksgiving eve!

Actually, remember that post of mine a few days ago to Strat? I mentioned that the US is walking that "printing money/ecomonic recovery line" so as to avoid stagflation. A devalued currency supports that goal. Consequently, that has been my rationale for staying long EUR for so long against USD. My former and current feeling was that there was a large pent-up short EUR sentiment, based on comments from known advisors..... but that will exhaust itself eventually as you say. My plan then is simply to remain long with loose weekly/monthly stops to survive the bumps. So far, it has been an orderly devaluation, as the Fed endorsed. But....if they are talking.....well....who is left?

Peronally, I think Japan should follow, and they tend to manipulate in large waves, but as of now the USD is winning the devaluation race.

My observation today is that the commodity currencies have lost their lead relative to EUR, making this a more anti-dollar play in a thin market moreso than ever. If the Fed endores a weak dollar and one does not want to buy anymore of an an exhausted Yen, then why not buy Gold? Futures traders will remember the old Swiss Franc and Silver analogy. For those reading, I would be aware that there are new high/low marks and await a retest. By all odds, though, you should be in already. If out, I would see if the commodity currencies are able to make new levels and trade accordingly or, as usual, await positive USDJPY PA to position for a major move. As I have written many times, I consider it a major economic statement that E/J remains above 131.
  • #7,973
  • Nov 25, 2009 6:08pm Nov 25, 2009 6:08pm
Quoting pipfx
We knew on April 11 that the bottom was confirmed and if you don’t know why, you need to go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning.

I just want to confirm my understanding... on April 11 was the bottom confirmed because the candle closed above the previous LH on Mar 20?

Thanks Strat and everyone else who contributes to this thread on a regular basis.
Focus on PA around EMA 20 (red line)
  • #7,974
  • Nov 25, 2009 7:39pm Nov 25, 2009 7:39pm
Quoting Alexandra
Only for you would I answer on Thanksgiving eve!
Happy Thanksgiving!!
  • #7,975
  • Nov 25, 2009 7:47pm Nov 25, 2009 7:47pm
Quoting Blackeagle
I have checked boss/worker line/candle charts and all I can see is a minor SR at 2.16 from boss line chart. There is also another minor one at 2.13, but I didn't want to put these on my chart to keep it clean (otherwise your chart will be full of minor SRs).
Thank you Blackeagle.
  • #7,976
  • Nov 25, 2009 8:34pm Nov 25, 2009 8:34pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
Focus on PA around EMA 20 (red line)
Thanks!

The close above the 20 was an indication that there was a change in trend and given the change in direction of the 20 (ie. pointing north), we can establish the previous swing low as a bottom? This was confirmed by PA with a Bullish bar.

Am I close?
  • #7,977
  • Nov 25, 2009 8:44pm Nov 25, 2009 8:44pm
Hi everyone

I have a suggestion and I'd appreciate your feedback. Strat gave me the ok to suggest this to you all. As most of you will agree this is the most beneficial educational trading opportunity you've ever had. I wanted to add a newer and interactive dimension to the thread/trading school. What I suggested was that those of us that are interested should choose a pair each, one that we are most comfortable with, and submit a weekly analysis of the PA associated with that pair. It would be a daily candle by daily candle analysis for the week, a weekly candle analysis and a monthly candle analysis (when applicable) every Sunday, along with a chart. I wouldn't take more than 20 minutes out of our days AND Strat, Blackeagle, Nicola and Alexandra, could comment on our analysis and especially our thoughts which can often sabotage sound analysis.

If I had to plan it, I would start with first choosing a pair, then drawing support and resistance levels. Once those are checked and verified (Blackeagle has done that for many pairs) they are there until useless. Then we can draw demand and supply lines where necessary and begin describing price action. If you guys are ok with this, then we can begin with a format to make the reading easier for the teachers of this thread, and to those who want to join in etc. I think the overall goal is mastery. Once a person has mastered a pair to some degree of satisfaction they can become a teacher of the pair and let someone else take it over? To be done right I think it will take a little work, but I think the payoff will be beneficial. Please let me know what you all think and we can formulate a next step together.
  • #7,978
  • Edited 9:09pm Nov 25, 2009 9:00pm | Edited 9:09pm
Quoting Donadoney
Hi everyone

I have a suggestion and I'd appreciate your feedback. Strat gave me the ok to suggest this to you all. As most of you will agree this is the most beneficial educational trading opportunity you've ever had. I wanted to add a newer and interactive dimension to the thread/trading school....

I like the idea, i have been thinking about doing one for the past few weeks just been putting it off.

So if i understand correctly we each get to pick a pair? that way we can all benefit from the others as well right?

May i put the first offer in on USD/CAD?
  • #7,979
  • Nov 25, 2009 9:09pm Nov 25, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting Donadoney
Hi everyone

I have a suggestion and I'd appreciate your feedback.
I like this idea also. Especially the part about comments from the team. Count me in.

I'd choose AUDCHF if we go this route.
  • #7,980
  • Nov 25, 2009 10:23pm Nov 25, 2009 10:23pm
Quoting Donadoney
Hi everyone

I have a suggestion and I'd appreciate your feedback. Strat gave me the ok to suggest this to you all. As most of you will agree this is the most beneficial educational trading opportunity you've ever had. I wanted to add a newer and interactive dimension to the thread/trading school. What I suggested was that those of us that are interested should choose a pair each, one that we are most comfortable with, and submit a weekly analysis of the PA associated with that pair. It would be a daily candle by daily candle analysis for the...
Hi Donadoney

Great idea, I could try to do AUDUSD thanks if noone objects.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Jideck
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