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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #7,941
  • Nov 25, 2009 10:16am Nov 25, 2009 10:16am
Quoting Grimweasel
You should always take very with trend opportunity the market offers you. Never trade countertrend until there has been a significant TL break on strong momentum and even then you should get back into the direction of that TL because you should be expecting a test of the trends extreme or underside of the TL. Trading countertrend will fool you with a few great wins but eventually you will deplete your account. With Trend entries are always the scariest as you are trading against the recent counter-trend momentum and it awlays looks like a possible...
Danny,

I agree with everything you said here. I'm keeping my focus on waiting for setups that let me take an entry with the longer-term trend. Like you, I'm keeping in mind the wise words of Dr. Joe.

Dave
  • #7,942
  • Nov 25, 2009 10:17am Nov 25, 2009 10:17am
Quoting PistolDave
Thanks for the comments on my trade, Strat. Very helpful.

So far the trade hasn't made a move in my direction. It looks like it's consolidating between the 20 and 50 and may go sideways for awhile before it makes a move down. In the meantime the big boys will probably be shaking out some of the weak hands.

I'm sticking with my plan. Even if it doesn't work out it's still a high probability setup. My attitude now is: Some will, some won't, so what -- NEXT. I am beginning to know what I need to do and I'm doing it. (Well, most of the time )...
My attitude now is: Some will, some won't, so what -- NEXT. I am beginning to know what I need to do and I'm doing it.

Dave, you probably don’t know it, but this is a BIG STEP on The Path. To accept this and DO this is has all the signs of a successful trader. This is a 2 STEP process and what you MUST ALWAYS do is:

Make sure your losses are significantly smaller than your winners

I was just going to give you a huge pat on the back until I saw this:

(Well, most of the time )

DISCIPLINE, Dave, DISCIPLINE! (either that or a kick in the bollocks!)
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,943
  • Nov 25, 2009 10:20am Nov 25, 2009 10:20am
Quoting AstonDan
Not much more to say than that really is there Dave?

Congrats
I suppose not, Dan. Thanks. Now, talking the talk is easy. Let's see if I can walk the walk. lol.
  • #7,944
  • Nov 25, 2009 10:48am Nov 25, 2009 10:48am
Quoting strat

I was just going to give you a huge pat on the back until I saw this:

(Well, most of the time )

DISCIPLINE, Dave, DISCIPLINE! (either that or a kick in the bollocks!)

Ummm, well I think would choose the pat on the back.

While I'm here I wanted to ask you if you had read that .pdf file that was posted a long time back on J16 where someone had backtested some setups on several pairs from 1990-2005 that included pinbars, BUOB, BEOB, IB's, etc. and calculated the win percentage of all of them?

If you did, what do you think about posting it here?

Unfortunately, it doesn't give much detail about how they determine if it was a "winner." That could mean just a few pips or hundreds.

If you want to see it I could post it here, PM the text to you, or upload it somewhere so you could look at it first to see if it's relevent anymore.

Just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

Dave
  • #7,945
  • Nov 25, 2009 11:11am Nov 25, 2009 11:11am
Quoting PistolDave
Ummm, well I think would choose the pat on the back.

While I'm here I wanted to ask you if you had read that .pdf file that was posted a long time back on J16 where someone had backtested some setups on several pairs from 1990-2005 that included pinbars, BUOB, BEOB, IB's, etc. and calculated the win percentage of all of them?

If you did, what do you think about posting it here?

Unfortunately, it doesn't give much detail about how they determine if it was a "winner." That could mean just a few pips or hundreds.

If you want...
Thanks for the good intentions Dave but I have absolute zero interest in that. I seriously “question” how valuable such information is as it is mainly subject to individual interpretation on so many fronts.

In any case, such information could cause one to ignore certain candles/bars which could turn into a fantastic trade.

We are taught on this thread the basic price reversal bars which WORK. They perform consistently time after time. We do not need to know which works better than others because NO-ONE can tell you that. Each price reversal bar is subject to its position relative to the candles around it, before it and relative to any trend and must therefore be evaluated on a CASE by CASE basis.

This is basic PASR. As we move through The Path and the learning progression, you will learn to SEE BEYOND THE CANDLES which is far more valuable than one person’s interpretation of candles.

Also, while history is VERY VALUABLE, it has to be used in the correct context. To say that this happened before on such and such a candle and will happen again on X% of the time is a waste of time and energy. I am more interested in what is happening in the NOW time frame. History has gone, there is nothing we can do about it or trade it.

Sorry, I had one foot on the soap box again
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,946
  • Nov 25, 2009 11:53am Nov 25, 2009 11:53am
OK, I’m bored and trying to look busy so that the BOSS doesn’t get me to go shopping with her (Ugh!).

I’ve been looking at Indicator Threads here on FF and other various forums and was going to do a few posts on how stupid their squiggly wiggly lines make their analysis but realized that was negative. Instead I want to focus on the positive so let’s look at how we “SEE BEYOND THE CANDLES”.

Looking at the Worker AUDUSD chart, we can see that she bottomed on April 02, 2001. Of course, we didn’t know that then but we did later.

We knew on April 11 that the bottom was confirmed and if you don’t know why, you need to go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning.

By April 11, we knew we were in an Impulse Buy Wave from April 3 to April 16. We expected a Corrective Selling wave after that which duly followed on April 17 & 18.

At the market close on April 18, we were left with a Gravestone Doji. Many newbie and untrained PASR traders would see this as a, heaven forbid, “pin bar” while other more knowledgeable traders would see it as a Hammer. Of course the candle perfectionists would see it for what it was.

Either way, buy stops above the doji would have produced immediate returns but how many REALLY knew what they were doing, what the market was telling them and how many stayed in the trade until around May 21?

Let’s understand what the market is telling us.

From April 3 to 16 we have an Impulse Wave. We don’t care whether it is Wave 1, 3 or 5 or sub wave (iv) of corrective impulse ABC correction of final wave (v) of Super Wave (iv)!

All we need to know is that the BUYERS have regained CONTROL.

There was initial indication on April 6 that this was a significant move – again, if you don’t know why, you need to go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning.

On April 9, the sellers let us know they were still there and were not going to give up their “PRICE” without a fight. However, that fight expired at a SR level giving us more indication that the buyers were standing “their ground” (PRICE).

The next 3 bars were strong Impulse bars telling us that the buyers are determined to push prices higher.

After such strong bars and a 200 pip move, we always expect a round of profit taking. This came at a minor SR level and where I look for a “wobble”.

April 16 told us a few things. There was a sell off, probably in Asian trading but, as usual, London and New York buyers reversed that position. This bar showed the buyers were busy doing other things (probably taking profit) as they could only push prices up to the 50 where it stalled again.

The next day produced the expected profit taking resulting in a BEEB and, on some data, a BEOB.

Now those inexperienced and newbie “so called” PASR traders would see the BEEB/BEOB and think SELL, SELL, SELL! And very many did sell!

This is the most common mistake of traders learning to trade candlesticks. They are told that a BEEB/BEOB is a price reversal bar and to trade in the direction of the BEEB/BEOB. However, this is only HALF of the PASR story.

We must ALWAYS, ALWAYS treat each bar, price reversal or not, on a CASE by CASE BASIS.

In this case, we already know a lot about PRICE and who is IN CONTROL. We have a very good idea of what is happening and where PRICE is heading.

As trained PASR traders, the LAST thing we want to do on this candle is SELL!
If you don’t know why, you need to go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning.


More than anything, what it is telling us to do, if we haven’t already done so, is to lock up profits.

The Gravestone Doji bar at the close of April 18 tells us all we need to know about PRICE.

At this point, I don’t care about correct candle definitions or proportions (but traders on The Path should, until they progress) – the rebel in me throws out such limitations. Instead I “see” what went on inside each candle.

Without going into a full dissertation of what went on in that candle, the bottom line is that the sellers put up a strong fight but they were beaten back by even stronger buyers.

Remember my post on SR lines and the energy levels above and below them?

The following day, April 19, the buyers re-stated their position for all to see with a 178 pip candle. If you don’t know why, you need to go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning.

Usually, but not always, there is profit taking after such a huge (178 pip) move. This duly happened with the doji on April 20.

Again, the long wick and tail told us so much about PRICE.

On April 23, with the buyers at their weakest (taking profit), the sellers came back BIG TIME expecting to drive PRICE back down. However, they could only take PRICE down to a level (seen on the chart) where the buyers were not prepared to give up PRICE. The Bond hammer on April 24 confirmed this level and showed that the sellers had been halted in their quest for lower prices. If you don’t know why, you need to go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning.

The Bond hammer the following day on April 25 confirmed that the buyers were back IN CONTROL.

From that point on, up to around May 21, we were given signs, many times, to hold our long positions. In addition, we were given several opportunities to compound and add to our positions. If you don’t know why, you need to go back to the beginning of The Path of Learning.

There is so much more to SEEING BEYOND THE CANDLES but hopefully this will be a start to open your mind.
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,947
  • Nov 25, 2009 12:11pm Nov 25, 2009 12:11pm
USD/JPY, we are aproaching an important station on this pair.

The station: 87.22 level (lows made on 17-18 dec. 2008)

According to my maps, if we continue to go south from here, the next station is @ 80.65. This is a very long journey in no man's land (~650 pips)

BOSS (i like to call him chief trader but i will stick with the house rules).

- the trend is down (20 EMA below 50 SMA, pointing to south)
- you can see the shift in momentum made in august 2009

WORKER (i like to call him trader but again, i will stick to the rules)

- the trend is down
- new shift in momentum made on 13.11.2009
- today it seems that the pair woke up (moved more than 100 pips)

Allthough it's a minor level on my charts, i will watch close for PA around 87.22 level.

What do you think guys?
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  • #7,948
  • Nov 25, 2009 12:24pm Nov 25, 2009 12:24pm
I'm making a few comments now rather than at market close because I'm not sure I'll have time. I'm sure the wife is going to have my spare time booked preparing for tomorrow's holiday.

Hcristea, I hope you saw my words of caution on AUDCHF and were able to act accordingly.

AUDCHF - on the 50 but around this area is where I'd expect a HL if there was going to be one. If not, SL still at .9140. This trade will take care of itself one way or the other.

USDCAD - this trade is a perfect example of why you should stick to your plan. If you don't recall, I entered this trade short at 1.0487 on the 11th (which was really a place holder for the previous day's close and is only a single lot). Plan was/is to close at 1.0300. Moving SL from the previous swing high to the most recent swing high. SL now at 1.0740. There were ample opportunities to cut bait and run but price has come back in line with expectations. Could it go right back up and hit my SL. Sure. Will that change my plan. No.

-m

P.S. Besides...I made a fat stack off of Strat's gimmie on AUDNZD. Just kidding But if I were in it, i'd take mine off at 1.2800
  • #7,949
  • Nov 25, 2009 1:44pm Nov 25, 2009 1:44pm
Quoting strat
OK, I’m bored and trying to look busy so that the BOSS doesn’t get me to go shopping with her (Ugh!)....
Thank you for taking the time with this one Strat. It is so enlightening to have the market depicted as motivations and personalities instead of candle combination's and patterns.

Printed this one out for a much closer study.
  • #7,950
  • Nov 25, 2009 1:45pm Nov 25, 2009 1:45pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
USD/JPY, we are aproaching an important station on this pair.

The station: 87.22 level (lows made on 17-18 dec. 2008)

According to my maps, if we continue to go south from here, the next station is @ 80.65. This is a very long journey in no man's land (~650 pips)

BOSS (i like to call him chief trader but i will stick with the house rules).

- the trend is down (20 EMA below 50 SMA, pointing to south)
- you can see the shift in momentum made in august 2009

WORKER (i like to call him trader but again, i...
She just tagged the lows from December '08 and January '09 so things could get interesting at this point.

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  • #7,951
  • Nov 25, 2009 1:48pm Nov 25, 2009 1:48pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
USD/JPY, we are aproaching an important station on this pair...............

WORKER (i like to call him trader but again, i will stick to the rules)

- the trend is down
- new shift in momentum made on 13.11.2009
- today it seems that the pair woke up (moved more than 100 pips)

Allthough it's a minor level on my charts, i will watch close for PA around 87.22 level.

What do you think guys?
Yes, I agree with you Keyser and Dave (while I was writing this Dave got in with his post, which is virtually identical! But I decided to post mine anyway......well I'd done the work on it so.......)

On my feed and therefore my chart the daily has already reached that minor support level that you mention at 8720ish. I am waiting for the end of the US holiday to see if it goes further down when the big boys return from their feasting!

Mind you my hesitation has cost me about 100 pips but.......

The next S I have is back to Sept 1994 at 8430!!!
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  • #7,952
  • Nov 25, 2009 2:18pm Nov 25, 2009 2:18pm
Quoting Lotuselanman

On my feed and therefore my chart the daily has already reached that minor support level that you mention at 8720ish. I am waiting for the end of the US holiday to see if it goes further down when the big boys return from their feasting!

The next S I have is back to Sept 1994 at 8430!!!
Forgot about the holliday in US, let's see what the guys from Wall Street has to say about this.

We still have ~ 2 more hours. Even though it will close below 87.20, i think it's wise to wait for tommorow's close.
  • #7,953
  • Edited 3:45pm Nov 25, 2009 3:21pm | Edited 3:45pm
Quoting strat
Since you are now trading with PASR using the prime mover of all markets (PRICE), it may well work out for you with silver. If however, it doesn’t, just move on to another instrument.
Strat, agreed.
Using PASR and Daily timeframe I might tame the silver beast. If not, I'll say good bye to silver for good.

Quoting mstandifer
Hcristea, I hope you saw my words of caution on AUDCHF and were able to act accordingly.
Of course I saw them my friend, thank you.
I was determined to place a buy order IF the candle from 23 Nov would have closed above 20 EMA. I can base my decision on the candles forming on my feed. Your feed is a bit different, your candles could have told me a different story.

However, I did not buy AUDCHF because I realized that I don't have that pair on my trading platform (oops!) and even if I had the pair it seems that my order would not have been activated.


Anyway look at the EURUSD!! It seems that the USD could not handle all that SELLING pressure generated by those LAST MINUTE imports of frozen turkeys from Europe! Fundamentals rulz! Hehe

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Happy Thanksgiving!
  • #7,954
  • Nov 25, 2009 3:30pm Nov 25, 2009 3:30pm
Yesterday we had a (Bond) Shooting Star out of minor SR, sellers thought they could regain control but they got smashed today by a BUOB that looks like is closing above the mentioned SR.
Buyers are strong... Long term bullish trend might have been resumed.

P.S. Thank you Strat for your the 'See Beyond Candles' lesson!
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,955
  • Nov 25, 2009 3:38pm Nov 25, 2009 3:38pm
I see a great setup on USD/CAD.

Add to this that the Russian Central Bank is long on CAD

If we have a close outside the triangle, i will add to my short position opened after the bearish engulfing candle from 23.11
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  • #7,956
  • Nov 25, 2009 4:03pm Nov 25, 2009 4:03pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
I see a great setup on USD/CAD.

Add to this that the Russian Central Bank is long on CAD

If we have a close outside the triangle, i will add to my short position opened after the bearish engulfing candle from 23.11

Hey Keyser,

Just a couple of things from your chart i noticed.

Your sell stop entry looks to be placed wrong, it should be 10 pips min below the BEOB.

The other is in regards to adding to positions while in the demo phase.

I was adding to my positions on a lot of my trades and honestly i had no clue where was the best place to do it. It caused a lot of my initial PASR trades that were in a paper profit to be eaten up by my adding to positions incorrectly. Which in turn had an affect on my confidence. So much so that i quit dong it altogether.

I don't want to discourage you at all from doing your own research and testing but i think there is value in just keeping things as simple as possible to start until you can trade from R to S and S to R and consistently bank pips.

As we all progress further on the path i am sure Strat will show us some good tricks for doing so.
  • #7,957
  • Nov 25, 2009 4:28pm Nov 25, 2009 4:28pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Hey Keyser,

Just a couple of things from your chart i noticed.

Your sell stop entry looks to be placed wrong, it should be 10 pips min below the BEOB.

The other is in regards to adding to positions while in the demo phase.

I was adding to my positions on a lot of my trades and honestly i had no clue where was the best place to do it. It caused a lot of my initial PASR trades that were in a paper profit to be eaten up by my adding to positions incorrectly. Which in turn had an affect on my confidence. So much so that i quit dong it altogether.

I...
CrudeCraig, i guess you are right, i've removed my offer. I should keep it simple.
  • #7,958
  • Nov 25, 2009 4:29pm Nov 25, 2009 4:29pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
USD/JPY, we are aproaching an important station on this pair.

The station: 87.22 level (lows made on 17-18 dec. 2008)

According to my maps, if we continue to go south from here, the next station is @ 80.65. This is a very long journey in no man's land (~650 pips)

BOSS (i like to call him chief trader but i will stick with the house rules).

- the trend is down (20 EMA below 50 SMA, pointing to south)
- you can see the shift in momentum made in august 2009

WORKER (i like to call him trader but again, i will...
These are FALSE moves! London has closed, New York is on holiday so who the hell is trading and moving these?

If you have any doubts, pull up the volume on Futures contracts and you will see it is VERY THIN trading.

See my earlier post on Trading at your peril. The Professionals know best and they have GONE - they are on the beach/on their yachts/with their women/in their cars - they are NOT trading.

We follow the big boys not the little runts!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,959
  • Nov 25, 2009 4:30pm Nov 25, 2009 4:30pm
Strat ,thanks for the hand out.
Regards, lurker/freeloader
  • #7,960
  • Nov 25, 2009 4:39pm Nov 25, 2009 4:39pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
Forgot about the holliday in US, let's see what the guys from Wall Street has to say about this.

We still have ~ 2 more hours. Even though it will close below 87.20, i think it's wise to wait for tommorow's close.
.........7, 8, 9, 10 Duh!

Keyser, you must have your head up where the sun don't shine!

let's see what the guys from Wall Street has to say about this.

How many posts will it take for you to realise that NY traders have, for the most part, been ON HOLIDAY all this week. Certainly today they have been GONE!

LOOK AT THE VOLUME (OR LACK OF VOLUME) ON FUTURES & COMMODITIES CONTRACTS!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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