EURUSD

Its like this... when you have made your target for the year... and your bonuses are decided, you get a little brash.... so this time of the year, you typically see a lot more volatile moves. Risking money on breaks like this is what we used to do and I am sure that is what guys in these big banks are doing. Typical stops for these positions would be 40-50 pips lower... so beware of a break below 1.498 or 1.497...cos if that happens they are going to be dumping it big time!

And yes, position sizes can be huge enough to move the markets....

PA just hit 4H trendline for the 3rd time - I've gone short, ready to bail out when that trendline is broken with some confirmation.

I just exited my long on EUR.

I reckon if 1.5046 breaks and then 1.5070 we are heading for 1.51++...
If 1.4987 on the downside breaks.. we should see 1.4930

Interesting, how does the banks trading records look like?

as in do they have 1:3 risk/reward ratio etc?

Hi Larseg, been ranging for at least past two weeks, this is at the top of that range - US off for thanksgiving, fundamentals all favour weaker dollar but not so much as to push new highs. I'm betting on another week ranging before any significant break of range...........placed a tight SL so, think its a reasonable wager if not just a short term scalp - may be wrong but wont cost me much............

p.s.. also just hit daily R1 - rejected it so even if I pick up a few pips on a retrace before next attempt at breaking R1, I'll take them..

GL all

35 minutes until the 4H will show close confirmation for the New york servers...

its too late

Yes it is a good probability trade but did you see the COT chart?
http://www.cotpricecharts.com/commitmentscurrent/

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Europe's banks are entering a tough patch.
Top of the list is WestLB, which was forced into a government rescue plan this week to save it from possible insolvency.
Then there's a whole list of Greek banks. The cost of insuring Greek government debt against default has rocketed recently after the country's banks were warned that they should wean themselves off the European Central Bank's flow of cheap funds.
Even the relatively solid Banco Santander SA has warned that a heavier burden of regulation would be unhelpful, and that an "indiscriminate" call to boost capital levels could be damaging.
All in all, it's no banking crisis. Not at this point, at least. But nerves are certainly building.
For the currency markets, the chief concern is that banks will struggle to lend to people and businesses once the ECB starts withdrawing its super-cheap flow of funding, and that's bad news for euro-zone growth prospects, which is in turn bad news for the euro.
A pullback in the single currency is a clear possibility in this environment, particularly at a time when positive euro bets could be pared back towards the end of the year.
But here's the twist: for now, all this is good for the euro. Really. At least, that's the theory for the currencies analysts over at BNP Paribas SA.
"Before the end of this year, many of the weaker [euro-zone] banks will have to repatriate assets from abroad, cutting the size of their balance sheets, which will provide euro support ahead of the year end," the bank's analysts said in a recent note.
The wobbles at WestLB "support our euro-supportive repatriation argument," they added Tuesday.
Once the repatriation flows dry up, the euro could fall hard, it added. But still, repatriation could be the trigger that finally pushes the euro meaningfully above $1.50.
It's not such a bizarre idea. Look at the Swiss franc.
No matter how often the Swiss National Bank warns the markets that it won't stand for excessive currency strength, the franc doesn't fall. Swiss banks could be the culprits, as they continue to shed foreign assets and bring their francs back home.
The major threat to the repatriation theory, as BNP Paribas' analysts concede, is that it's not just Europe's banks that are feeling the heat. Earlier this week, Chinese authorities got tough on their banks' capital requirements--a development that shoved Chinese equities and risk sentiment lower across the board.
The International Monetary Fund also warned this week that only around half of global bank losses have so far been disclosed.
In addition, ratings agency Standard & Poor's has raised concerns about the financial strength of a number of key banks from around the world.
In the end, if banks everywhere ramp up their repatriations, then the net effect on currencies should be pretty much neutral, assuming all countries are affected evenly. Still, it's well worth keeping a close eye on WestLB and its Greek peers for now.
In early European trading hours Wednesday, the euro was edging higher around psychologically significant levels, at $1.5001 from $1.4965 late in New York Tuesday, according to EBS. The single currency was buoyed by a short-term recovery in risk sentiment.
The dollar was under pressure against the yen, at Y88.32 from Y88.55, while the euro was little changed at Y132.53 from Y132.49.
The pound was climbing, again in line with stronger risk sentiment, at $1.6667 from $1.6586.

I missed the trade i was preparing ...
Look at nice beautifull tail on 1h, i very like such kind of set-ups.
Was ready to go Long on candle open, but had to go out.

Anyway... It is better to miss good trade then to be envolved into bad one. )

WISE WORDS !!!!!!

gonna lock some profit at 5045

Interesting, never seen these before.....still relatively new at this game, may consider subscribing to this though, cheers. As I type the second test of R1 is happening...if it breaks I may go long if it retraces and R1 acts as support.

possible retrace @1.5013, will long when it complete

Yep, if you haven't seen them make sure you go on the COT webinar (recorded one) in www.fxstreet.com

Extremely profitable.... and different traders have different strategies. But no...there is no hardcoded rule of 1:3... you just need to be profitable using any strategy.

Not worth subscribing... all the data is available at the CFTC.gov website. Additionally, this is a very very small part of the overall FX market... it gives you a decent idea of what a small population of the traders are doing... but by no means is this a leading measure of FX moves.

I reckon 1.5060, will be am exciting area to watch, should it get there, and I think that is what it is trying to do at the moment.

Thanks, just wanted to confirm that you are not working nor have been working in a bank...