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  • #7,881
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:56pm Nov 23, 2009 3:56pm
Guys,

i have i dilemma.

We still have one hour till the NY close but let's say that this candle will close below the 20 EMA.

We have a very bearish signal (almost engulfed the last 2 candles) + close below 20 ema.

If we take a trade from here, this would mean to trade in the violet trendline.

What it's better to do in this case? To wait for a break of the triangle or to place an offer below the low of the candle.

Many thanks in advance.
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  • #7,882
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:00pm Nov 23, 2009 4:00pm
Wallis & Futuna islanda are between Fiji and Samoa. Their currency is CPF Franc (XPF iso code). That's exotic!
  • #7,883
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:03pm Nov 23, 2009 4:03pm
Hey Keiser Soze,

I would rather stay out of USDCAD until it chooses a clear direction. Triangles aint high prob trades for me. Best are clear pullbacks/rallies in trends.

And if you aint sure then check out what THE BOSS is saying.

P.S. If your broker needs another hour to close then it means is 01:00 AM in the morning, not a good hour to make a trading decision if you need to wake up every morning. I use one that closes at 00:00 a bit late also but still...

Best wishes,
-soso
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,884
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:57pm Nov 23, 2009 4:57pm
Quoting soso
. I use one that closes at 00:00 a bit late also but still...

Best wishes,
-soso
Hi Soso,

but you do chart on Mt4 right?
  • #7,885
  • Edited 5:04pm Nov 23, 2009 5:01pm | Edited 5:04pm
Hey Soso and Keiser Soze and hcristea,

When does the Potica season begin for you ?
  • #7,886
  • Edited 9:44pm Nov 23, 2009 6:07pm | Edited 9:44pm
Quoting hcristea
What do you think? Will you add to your long position?
My original long entry was not at an appropriate place for a basic PASR trade. Caution is needed here:

AUDCHF Monthly overall shows a downward trend. Within the down trend we are currently in an uptrend but look at where we are on the monthly. Smack dab on the 61.8 fib and 50. Not really a good time to go long.

AUDCHF Weekly shows a current up trend BUT look at last week's big BEEB almost at major resistance. Not really a good time to go long.

AUDCHF Daily however shows HL and HH. Today's close shows a confirmed HL right above very minor support and yes I entered long as per my plan BUT in retrospect this is not a trade I would now take based on Strat's beginner PASR teachings. I am basically against the major trend and possibly into major resistance. Not a good time to go long.

My overall total position is long at an average of .9365 with a TP at .9500 and SL at .9140.

Please understand that my entry long, while perhaps correct for an ATM trade, is NOT one I would enter knowing what I know now. I am only continuing this trade as a test of my commitment to follow through with a trading plan. If I thought this trade had no chance I would close the trade so I'm not saying that. I am, however, saying that as a beginner (which I am) I recognize this as not an optimal trade based on basic PASR with the overall trend.

-m
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  • #7,887
  • Nov 23, 2009 9:06pm Nov 23, 2009 9:06pm
After breaking out of the dsri price has come back to test it forming the shooting star which is resisted by the DS turned DR, the 20 and 50, and the 0.7230-0.7280 resistance.

This is not a complete trend reversal yet because we have not broken the low of the reversal pattern (the one showed by Strat not long ago) but it seems like a safe trade initially to the 0.7100 level

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  • #7,888
  • Nov 23, 2009 9:09pm Nov 23, 2009 9:09pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
How could i miss such a beauty?

This is a hammer at a very interesting level: 50% FIB ret. Also, the shadow reached the trendline. I should have placed a bid above the high of the hammer, with SL below the trendline.

Now we have a bullish engulfing (and i think it will close above 20EMA) pattern but it's too late to enter the deal due to R/R ratio

Lotuselanman, Strat, thanks for your answers.

Strat, i'm sorry, i'm not a native english speaker and i don't understand what you mean by this
Price has receded to the top of the hammer forming a small shooting star like candle. Would you still feel safe entering now, after seeing this candle?
  • #7,889
  • Nov 23, 2009 11:24pm Nov 23, 2009 11:24pm
Quoting Lou
Hi Soso,

but you do chart on Mt4 right?

typing error, it also close for me @ 0:00 (romania time)
  • #7,890
  • Nov 24, 2009 1:58am Nov 24, 2009 1:58am
Quoting Lou
Hey Soso and Keiser Soze and hcristea,

When does the Potica season begin for you ?
Hello Lou,

'm not familiar with that term "Potica", but I've google it and if you are refering to the pastry below, then for us the season is the whole year
Attached Image


Potica is Serbian, Croatian or Slovenian term but since Romania is in the area its a traditional pastry for us too. Usually its prepared in house at the holidays like Christmas, Easter, New Years Eve, etc...
  • #7,891
  • Nov 24, 2009 3:59am Nov 24, 2009 3:59am
do you refer at "cozonac"? if yes, yap it is very good if it is house made, especially by grand parents
  • #7,892
  • Nov 24, 2009 7:44am Nov 24, 2009 7:44am
Quoting Lou
Hi Soso,

but you do chart on Mt4 right?
Yes Lou,

I should have made it clear, I was talking about the charting broker - which is different than the dealing broker. Mine closes at 00:00 my time and would be great if I could find one that closes at 23:00. Much reasonable.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #7,893
  • Nov 24, 2009 9:04am Nov 24, 2009 9:04am
I am at the page 110 plus area, and reading a lot about new members registering on the Path of Learning with Lance. Is this something you still prefer new readers of the thread to do in order not to be regarded as Lurkers etc.

What does PM mean and how do you go about that.

I am really impressed with the support that you all give each other here and when I am ready to contribute sensibly you will hear plenty from me, in the meantime I have about 400 pages to catch up.

thank you
Larry

PS pity Huddersfield has such a crap team LOL
  • #7,894
  • Nov 24, 2009 9:11am Nov 24, 2009 9:11am
Quoting LarryK
I am at the page 110 plus area, and reading a lot about new members registering on the Path of Learning with Lance. Is this something you still prefer new readers of the thread to do in order not to be regarded as Lurkers etc.

What does PM mean and how do you go about that.

I am really impressed with the support that you all give each other here and when I am ready to contribute sensibly you will hear plenty from me, in the meantime I have about 400 pages to catch up.

thank you
Larry
Lance is long gone so register by sending a PM (Private Message) to Naws.

Look to top left of page and click on Private Messages.

Make sure you are UNDERSTANDING and not just reading.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,895
  • Nov 24, 2009 9:39am Nov 24, 2009 9:39am
Swiss time-piece
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,896
  • Nov 24, 2009 12:07pm Nov 24, 2009 12:07pm
Quoting strat
Lance is long gone so register by sending a PM (Private Message) to Naws.

Look to top left of page and click on Private Messages.

Make sure you are UNDERSTANDING and not just reading.
Larry K, i'm behind you with 10 pages, can you pls send me a link with the post you are talking about?
  • #7,897
  • Nov 24, 2009 1:30pm Nov 24, 2009 1:30pm
Sold short on the break below the low of this shooting star yesterday.

(Chart image is from yesterday.)

Here's what I was seeing when I decided to place the sell stop under the bottom of the SS:

Big boss is still making lower lows and lower highs on a steep downtrend. This month's candle appears to be forming a hammer, but until the high of 1.6470 is taken out it still looks bearish.

Boss trend is down and has put in a BUOB off of support last week, but until the candle high of 1.6353 has been taken out I'm still seeing it as a retracement and swing high.

Worker has formed a SS with the top bouncing off the 50, the downtrend line, and minor resistance. It has also closed under the fib 61.8 level from the last swing high/low. I believe this is good confluence of resistance and a nice reversal bar.

I'm looking for at least a move back down to the last swing low of 1.5950 for about 200 pips. If it makes it I will cover the short there. I set a stop 10 pips above the SS top. That's also just above the top of the Boss BUOB so if that is taken out that will definitely tell me I'm wrong on the trade. My risk is 180 pips.

I know there are other setups on the other AUD pairs too, but this one seemed to have the best confluence of resistance on my charts so I choose this one. Especially since I'm only going from SR to SR levels on my trades now. The AUDUSD might offer more potential for a trend trader though.

Since I was filled I'm down about 120 pips on the trade but I know what my trade plan is and I'll stick with it. I've defined my risk and I'm comfortable with that. I'm clear on my exit point too, so if it works out that's good -- and if it doesn't then I'll be waiting again for the next opportunity. No problem.

Dave


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  • #7,898
  • Nov 24, 2009 1:33pm Nov 24, 2009 1:33pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
Larry K, i'm behind you with 10 pages, can you pls send me a link with the post you are talking about?
Just keep reading mate, I don't have the time to go hunting for it, sorry

Larry
  • #7,899
  • Nov 24, 2009 1:40pm Nov 24, 2009 1:40pm
Quoting PistolDave
Sold short on the break below the low of this shooting star yesterday.

(Chart image is from yesterday.)

Here's what I was seeing when I decided to place the sell stop under the bottom of the SS:

Big boss is still making lower lows and lower highs on a steep downtrend. This month's candle appears to be forming a hammer, but until the high of 1.6470 is taken out it still looks bearish.

Boss trend is down and has put in a BUOB off of support last week, but until the candle high of 1.6353 has been taken out I'm still seeing it as a retracement...
Seems like a good plan Dave

I dont really like it that the horizontal resistance is fairly weak at that level but there are other conluences which is good.

Also I it would be better I think to put your entry below the 20. Looks like price has found some support there for now
  • #7,900
  • Nov 24, 2009 1:47pm Nov 24, 2009 1:47pm
Quoting Naws
Seems like a good plan Dave

I dont really like it that the horizontal resistance is fairly weak at that level but there are other conluences which is good.

Also I it would be better I think to put your entry below the 20. Looks like price has found some support there for now
Too late Naws, I'm already in. I agree that one of the negatives is that price is between the 20 and 50, but I went with it anyway because price has been bouncing off the 50 for some time now in the downtrend and I'm hoping this is another one.

Thanks buddy,

Dave
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