Trade what you see NOT what you expect | Page 1368 | Forex Factory

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Trade what you see NOT what you expect

  • #27,341
  • Nov 21, 2009 11:31am Nov 21, 2009 11:31am
Quick reference for the 35/50 cross reversal trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: misc GBP Chart a.JPG Size: 143 KB
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #27,342
  • Nov 21, 2009 4:08pm Nov 21, 2009 4:08pm
Wow, thanks so much again ken
  • #27,343
  • Nov 21, 2009 7:59pm Nov 21, 2009 7:59pm
Quoting KENNETH lEE
Quick reference for the 35/50 cross reversal trade.
Hi ken - thanks for your informative posts and charts.

I have a question on the 35/50 trade and chart above....I can see the bear bar closing through and below the 35 and 50 MA's....and hence a reversal trade is taken - indicated by the white "V" formation on your chart.

However I see also the red bearish bar following this trade also moves down through the 35 and 50 MA's....is this also a set up for the 35/50 reversal trade (to go long again) or is there some other information that kept you out of this set-up?

I should note I have not yet taken a 35/50 trade as I do not fully grasp when to take them and when to leave them.

Thanks in advance.
  • #27,344
  • Edited 3:09am Nov 22, 2009 2:53am | Edited 3:09am
Quoting Taylor
Hi ken - thanks for your informative posts and charts.

I have a question on the 35/50 trade and chart above....I can see the bear bar closing through and below the 35 and 50 MA's....and hence a reversal trade is taken - indicated by the white "V" formation on your chart.

However I see also the red bearish bar following this trade also moves down through the 35 and 50 MA's....is this also a set up for the 35/50 reversal trade (to go long again) or is there some other information that kept you out of this set-up?

I should note I have not yet...

This is probably not the best place to show that pattern as your correct the
Red bearish candle was also a 35 /50. But in a down trend the one I showed would be the one to take. The point when you said V is the actual thing I am looking for as a failure or just a retest of the 35/50 trade as the farther up the retracemnet is made the more likely it will fail and continue up. so you look for a check mark not a V . It is just a quick reference to a fib level. Maybe reread the section on the 35/50 and 62 ema trades.

Also I will post some stuff EO wrote about these trades. Ken

**********************************************************
EO; On the 35/50 reverse trade.
Volume in the market bro! Like the one that happend today during the US lunch time. The trend had been established to be a downward trend, she hit a nice low, 200sma on the h1 CIRCLE B and the 50sma on the h4 CIRCLE C. That sent her north to the 15m 35/50. Sellers started at the 21, 35/50, then bang she closed over the 35/50 and the 50sma was ontop,CIRCLE A sellers jumped on with drool and drove her back down. Those are your trend traders that jumped on her, their not the traders like Infinity, myself and others who went long from the bottom, they waited for the price, then pounced. The 35/50sma cross and reverse is excellent once the trend for the day has been defined like it had been for us from London. Will the cross and reverse work everytime, no, hell no, but it will once we come off a new high or new low.
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Click to Enlarge Name: 35 50 check mark refrence.JPG Size: 147 KB
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #27,345
  • Nov 22, 2009 3:34am Nov 22, 2009 3:34am
Thanks for the further info Ken.....I will do some more study on that setup.

Boy oh boy....you're up early for a Sunday morning??
  • #27,346
  • Nov 22, 2009 7:03am Nov 22, 2009 7:03am
Quoting Taylor
Thanks for the further info Ken.....I will do some more study on that setup.

Boy oh boy....you're up early for a Sunday morning??

Yeah it stinks you get use to waking up for Europe and London open. But I did go back to bed. Hope this helps. Ken
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #27,347
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:20pm Nov 22, 2009 1:20pm
Some interesting and useful information.
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Click to Enlarge Name: 1 hr gbp over view.JPG Size: 286 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1 hr EJ over view.JPG Size: 233 KB
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #27,348
  • Nov 23, 2009 2:04am Nov 23, 2009 2:04am
Morning Ken - yes helpful info.....and a 35/50 trade appeared 45min ago on the EJ - a long entry around the 132.47 (bid) level

I didnt take it, but would have been a nice trade.

Cheers
  • #27,349
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:28am Nov 23, 2009 7:28am
Quoting Taylor
Morning Ken - yes helpful info.....and a 35/50 trade appeared 45min ago on the EJ - a long entry around the 132.47 (bid) level

I didnt take it, but would have been a nice trade.

Cheers
Hey Taylor, that 35/50 cross had lots going for it. That gold ma ony my chart represents the 1hr 62ema, many times when price drives through it will come back to retest b4 moving on notice the 200ma blue also as support lots of confluence in this area. Price pulled back from upward momentum and came back into a nice trap (set-up) a very highly probable trade in my eyes ofcourse one has to be awake to make it happen, when a trade has so much on its side its always worth a Shot!!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #27,350
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:30am Nov 23, 2009 7:30am
The Mrs had something similar, no 35/50
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  • #27,351
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:48am Nov 23, 2009 7:48am
Thanksgiving week!!!!
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  • #27,352
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:51am Nov 23, 2009 7:51am
Waiting for that setup on this pair
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  • #27,353
  • Nov 23, 2009 2:39pm Nov 23, 2009 2:39pm
Hi,

Ken couldn't "Failure to make new lows after 3-4 attempts" also mean, that we're in a bear flag?

Although most likely not on a Friday afternoon after a 200 pip move - but any other day?

Cheers

Thomas

Quoting KENNETH lEE
a preview of Fridays gbp
  • #27,354
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:09pm Nov 23, 2009 3:09pm
Quoting tdeu
Hi,

Ken couldn't "Failure to make new lows after 3-4 attempts" also mean, that we're in a bear flag?

Although most likely not on a Friday afternoon after a 200 pip move - but any other day?

Cheers

Thomas
Yes it could but there was some nice gump or scalp trades in that area friday. Here is another chart showing how you can take those profits without risking any additional profits. By reentering on the retest of the break. If the price had broke down Friday it would have had a 99% chance of a retest like this. anytime it has to make that many attempts it will almost always retest.

Hope this helps explain it better ken
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Misc gbp.jpg Size: 211 KB
Good Trading To All ; Ken Lee
  • #27,355
  • Nov 23, 2009 9:47pm Nov 23, 2009 9:47pm
Quoting 4fun
Hey Taylor, that 35/50 cross had lots going for it. That gold ma ony my chart represents the 1hr 62ema, many times when price drives through it will come back to retest b4 moving on notice the 200ma blue also as support lots of confluence in this area. Price pulled back from upward momentum and came back into a nice trap (set-up) a very highly probable trade in my eyes ofcourse one has to be awake to make it happen, when a trade has so much on its side its always worth a Shot!!
Thanks mate - yes I see, that set-up is certainly on my radar now...hindsight is a wonderful thing, and its only now I see how it was not only a 35/50 trade but also a pip-perfect re-test of the 132.43 S/R level from Friday (and earlier in the week).
  • #27,356
  • Nov 24, 2009 12:25am Nov 24, 2009 12:25am
Morning All,

Pre-Europe I went short on both GU and EJ at re-tests of S/R levels - short at 6580 and 133.90 - booked +27 and +25 and then SL to BE.

The GU entry was not as sharp as I would have liked and it was stopped out pretty quick - I really needed to be short ideally at 6585 and it would still be open......but I live and learn

Looking to TP next on EJ at 132.43
  • #27,357
  • Nov 24, 2009 1:12am Nov 24, 2009 1:12am
Got another seat short on GU at the 10ema touch at 6566...tight SL and have last lot left short on EJ....maybe it will see 131.7x?
  • #27,358
  • Nov 24, 2009 1:32am Nov 24, 2009 1:32am
Took 1st lot off GU at 6537 (+29)....have S/R level here at bid 6533.....SL to BE...
  • #27,359
  • Nov 24, 2009 1:34am Nov 24, 2009 1:34am
Well done Taylor you're picking this up really fast
  • #27,360
  • Nov 24, 2009 2:12am Nov 24, 2009 2:12am
Quoting luckylady
Well done Taylor you're picking this up really fast
Thanks - mate, I battled away like everyone else.....just couldnt get ahead....my story is no different to any others going backwards much faster than forwards.....but a while ago I studied the Alt Tech Template thread on the other site (which recently shut down) and it made so much sense....finally I was creeping and crawling ever so slightly forwards....but something was still missing.....then I discovered this thread and BOOM....

I spend most of my time deep in this thread going over old trades/comments/strategy/reasoning from earlier in the year.....this stuff is SOLID GOLD for a guy like me in my current learning curve.....and I thank everyone here for that.
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