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System 2 (AUD trading)

  • #201
  • Nov 22, 2009 8:57pm Nov 22, 2009 8:57pm
Dont apologise , just trying to understand.

Are you using any pips on the break? like 3+ because my downside of that break was 9162 and the top side is 9176. That = 14 pips, +3 = 17 spread = 18-19, and this is a cheap trader.

But seriously, love your ideas and value you them that is why I am asking


Quoting shodd
I see how I have confused you now sorry mate. My spread on the aussie is usually around 1-2. In the example I gave my max risk was 16 pips including spread, so again sorry for the confusion.
Survive and Preserve
  • #202
  • Nov 22, 2009 9:16pm Nov 22, 2009 9:16pm
Quoting shodd
There shouldn't be anything random about it. I've said before that the AUD moves approx 65-75% of the Euro. Below is an example (my 2nd trade for the day) - 16 pip risk on this one.....
Just remember that in System II stops are almost never hit, they exist mainly in case of extreme moves or loss of comms or trading platform. Exits are taken before hard stop is hit.

Is the AUD move of 65-75% of EUR measured in pips? If so that would be equivalent to an equal percentage move in the EUR.
testing the market
  • #203
  • Nov 22, 2009 9:31pm Nov 22, 2009 9:31pm
Yeah, it does hit full Sl a few times actually but still the method works wonderfully to make money overall.


Hard stops are there to protect you from nasty fakeouts, which happen believe it or not. Especially on whippy days.. Sometimes you just cannot play number 2 no matter what you do...

There is no point to this, my question to shodd is where he placed his stops in that instance, just trying to get his insight.
Btw, I do think trading AUD is worth while, not nearly as nice as EUR but certainly not something to trash during our session



Quoting John888
Just remember that in System II stops are almost never hit, they exist mainly in case of extreme moves or loss of comms or trading platform. Exits are taken before hard stop is hit.

Is the AUD move of 65-75% of EUR measured in pips? If so that would be equivalent to an equal percentage move in the EUR.
Survive and Preserve
  • #204
  • Nov 22, 2009 10:18pm Nov 22, 2009 10:18pm
[quote=en0x;3252442]Yeah, it does hit full Sl a few times actually but still the method works wonderfully to make money overall.


Hard stops are there to protect you from nasty fakeouts, which happen believe it or not. Especially on whippy days.. Sometimes you just cannot play number 2 no matter what you do...

quote]

AUD is numerically such that 16 pip stop equates to 16*(1.49/.92) = 26 pips on EUR, and the smaller moves we are talking about on AUD are equivalent in percentage terms to the moves on EUR. This is important in the discussion on the viability of AUD trading with System II (which I do not doubt either).

If AUD hard SL is being hit more than EUR, then this needs to be understood in trading AUD with System II
testing the market
  • #205
  • Nov 22, 2009 10:29pm Nov 22, 2009 10:29pm
That is why I am backtesting during my off times/down times. To get more of an understanding how AUD moves.


Take for exampe this recent bull run on AUD, the runner, if you caught it from the bottom would have netted you around 10 pips i played number 1 properly (stopping out under the FCR or failure of HH breaking on second attempt), I dont trust AUD to save my life so I closed at +27 on this one.

Now take a look at your runners in EUR and how they move, they not as whippy, just my humble observance.

So what do we really need to do? We need to adjust our expectations and get a better feel for AUD, something backtesting is showing me (as well as forward testing). Nothing beats experiance .

right, lets see if she wants to move on up again.



[quote=John888;3252517]
Quoting en0x
Yeah, it does hit full Sl a few times actually but still the method works wonderfully to make money overall.


Hard stops are there to protect you from nasty fakeouts, which happen believe it or not. Especially on whippy days.. Sometimes you just cannot play number 2 no matter what you do...

quote]

AUD is numerically such that 16 pip stop equates to 16*(1.49/.92) = 26 pips on EUR, and the smaller moves we are talking about on AUD are equivalent in percentage terms to the moves on EUR. This is important in the discussion...
Survive and Preserve
  • #206
  • Nov 22, 2009 10:32pm Nov 22, 2009 10:32pm
Hi en0x and John,

Very true about stops - I have never taken a full loss nor do I intend to in the future But you have to have a max stop in order to put the correct size on. In that trade I posted before my entry was at 0.9177 (1 pip plus spread past prev high) with max SL set at 0.9161.

Let me say this about the AUD and the way I trade it - I don't like putting on trades that have a max stop of more than approx 16 pips. If the swing high or low is greater than that I'll either take the trade and aggressively cut or sit on the side.

We know it doesn't move as much as EUR, so all I am trying to do is turn that fact into an advantage.
Leonardo Follower
  • #207
  • Nov 22, 2009 10:50pm Nov 22, 2009 10:50pm
Interesting Shodd

Lets just make money guys, and kick ass and chew gum later.

Do you have a perticular daily goal in mind?

Quoting shodd
Hi en0x and John,

Very true about stops - I have never taken a full loss nor do I intend to in the future But you have to have a max stop in order to put the correct size on. In that trade I posted before my entry was at 0.9177 (1 pip plus spread past prev high) with max SL set at 0.9161.

Let me say this about the AUD and the way I trade it - I don't like putting on trades that have a max stop of more than approx 16 pips. If the swing high or low is greater than that I'll either take the trade and aggressively cut or sit on the side.

We...
Survive and Preserve
  • #208
  • Nov 22, 2009 10:57pm Nov 22, 2009 10:57pm
Quoting en0x
Do you have a perticular daily goal in mind?
Not really. I left behind daily goals some time ago as it interferred with my decision making process. These days I simply take what the market is willing to give (a well worn cliche I know).
Leonardo Follower
  • #209
  • Edited 7:09am Nov 23, 2009 6:28am | Edited 7:09am
Hi,

May I know what make you guys choose TF5M instead of TF1M/TF15M/TF1HR?
  • #210
  • Nov 23, 2009 7:48am Nov 23, 2009 7:48am
Hi,

Because we learnt the 5 min time frame. We stick to 1 time to get a "feeling" for the market. You can trade it on the 15 if you want , and if your personality suits it trade it on the 1hour or 4 hour or daily

really up to you, 5min is nice for my concentration level to be honest..

Quoting sipekan
Hi,

May I know what make you guys choose TF5M instead of TF1M/TF15M/TF1HR?
Survive and Preserve
  • #211
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:00am Nov 23, 2009 8:00am
Trade from today
A) -1, this was a mistake trade. early monday ??? entered a market order instead of a limit order, closed as soon as I noticed it. stupid mistake
B) traded this and got out above +21 when it started turning. Closed for +26
C) traded long again, for +14, I thought price stalled but I missread it and anyways...
D)-1 price was moving too slow on the downside break for my liking
E)entered the trade then wife wanted me to go watch the new twilight, instead of targetting +21 i set to the .50 mark, price missed it by 2 pips and came back down. By the time I came home it was +8 so I just closed it.

Night all, until tomorrow

total pips today +44 I think
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.png Size: 183 KB
Survive and Preserve
  • #212
  • Nov 23, 2009 8:04am Nov 23, 2009 8:04am
save yourself the pain, if your wife/girlfriend/partner asks you to take them to see twilight,just say no. trust me, you will save yourself 2 hours of pain
Quoting en0x
Tde from today
A) -1, this was a mistake trade. early monday ??? entered a market order instead of a limit order, closed as soon as I noticed it. stupid mistake
B) traded this and got out above +21 when it started turning. Closed for +26
C) traded long again, for +14, I thought price stalled but I missread it and anyways...
D)-1 price was moving too slow on the downside break for my liking
E)entered the trade then wife wanted me to go watch the new twilight, instead of targetting +21 i set to the .50 mark, price missed it by 2 pips and came back...
Survive and Preserve
  • #213
  • Nov 23, 2009 2:51pm Nov 23, 2009 2:51pm
Hi man!

Just find your thread.. it's cool!!! As I can see - you make profits on solid base!

Good job!

Ps) Do you stiil need to have 9-5 job??? lol... You have a solid firma here in my opinion!!! Keep it going, man!

  • #214
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:17pm Nov 23, 2009 4:17pm
Morning folks. Lets see what the Aussie serves up today.

A few thoughts for the day -

Fear....discard it. You don't need it. If you have it you will lose. Grow a pair and get on with things. Do you know what you need to do to squash your fears?

Overtrading.....saw a lot of it on the EUR thread last night. Lots of people getting chopped up by the chop, when all they had to do was wait for a qualified swing. Seems that it takes some a while to learn when to stay on the sidelines.

Backslapping....see a lot of this too after each positive trade. I'm all for encouragement, but I don't believe it's healthy to be cheering every winner. All it's doing is making you more emotional (need I explain why this is bad?).

Anyway, rant over....let's get on with it.
Leonardo Follower
  • #215
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:22pm Nov 23, 2009 4:22pm
No more squigglies just price action I like it!
Just trade the pullback you idiot!
  • #216
  • Nov 23, 2009 4:30pm Nov 23, 2009 4:30pm
Quoting shodd
Morning folks. Lets see what the Aussie serves up today.

A few thoughts for the day -

Fear....discard it. You don't need it. If you have it you will lose. Grow a pair and get on with things. Do you know what you need to do to squash your fears?

Overtrading.....saw a lot of it on the EUR thread last night. Lots of people getting chopped up by the chop, when all they had to do was wait for a qualified swing. Seems that it takes some a while to learn when to stay on the sidelines.

Backslapping....see a lot of this too after each positive trade....
Nice Rant.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
  • #217
  • Nov 23, 2009 5:00pm Nov 23, 2009 5:00pm
News in 3 mins.
Shodd, good point about the backslap, but sometimes its needed for the newbies just like the rant fx gives when you complain about the losers. Both are needed to keep you on track. So I have no problems in encouraging someone. Sure , not ever 10 pip trade, but if catch a good runner then there whould be no problem in receiving a well done. Especially from those who count (eg. fx or feb). This is a means you are on the right track.

The rest of your rant is good but that takes time, when to sit on the sideline, when to say enough is enough. I know you haev been trading a few years so its natural for you.

Also, remember, EUR is not something to be picky about, FX takes nearly every setup and yet makes a tonnes because you just dont know when that runner will hit.
Survive and Preserve
  • #218
  • Nov 23, 2009 5:06pm Nov 23, 2009 5:06pm
You also should be backslapped if you do well at a loser, this is as equally important. Exiting correctly..

Quoting en0x
News in 3 mins.
Shodd, good point about the backslap, but sometimes its needed for the newbies just like the rant fx gives when you complain about the losers. Both are needed to keep you on track. So I have no problems in encouraging someone. Sure , not ever 10 pip trade, but if catch a good runner then there whould be no problem in receiving a well done. Especially from those who count (eg. fx or feb). This is a means you are on the right track.

The rest of your rant is good but that takes time, when to sit on the sideline, when to say enough...
Survive and Preserve
  • #219
  • Nov 23, 2009 5:08pm Nov 23, 2009 5:08pm
We are long from 9245
chart attached
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.png Size: 102 KB
Survive and Preserve
  • #220
  • Nov 23, 2009 5:26pm Nov 23, 2009 5:26pm
Quoting en0x
......The rest of your rant is good but that takes time, when to sit on the sideline, when to say enough is enough. I know you haev been trading a few years so its natural for you.

Also, remember, EUR is not something to be picky about, FX takes nearly every setup and yet makes a tonnes because you just dont know when that runner will hit.
Just wanted to talk about this for a min. I'm not saying people should scrutinise every setup, as that would be counter productive. What I am saying is use a little common sense when applying the rules. Last night was a good example. I saw lots of people trying to short a breakout of that bracket, when there had been no qualified swing low. Price had swung high into that bracket, so in my opinion the only valid entry was a long outside it.

Seems to me that the practice of qualifying a swing has been forgotten a little in the rush to be in on everything.

Febs method works because it is formulated from an understanding of the most basic of market mechanics (and the most important) - supply and demand. Ask yourself this: why does price make new highs or new lows?

By the way, if my comments are unwelcome, please let me know. I don't want to confuse people - all I'm trying to do is float some knowledge out there to make people think and hopefully become better traders because of it.
Leonardo Follower
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