Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading | Page 394 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

M5 PASR Trend Trading Strat 95 replies

What you need for trading: indis, a strat & good music 27 replies

Another way to stress free, mechanic long term trading 29 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Exit Attachments

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #7,861
  • Nov 22, 2009 5:36pm Nov 22, 2009 5:36pm
Keyser,

I don't have access to my own charts at the moment so am relying on the chart you posted.

Quoting Keyser Soze
Do you consider that a hammer?

Here are Steve Nison's criterias on how to recognize a hammer:

1. The real body is at the upper end of a trading range. As we agreed, the worker is trapped into a channel, we don't have a trend
Well, not much of a trend but the last 8 days or so on your chart have LHs and LLs (mostly) which is why you have drawn a short TL there.

Quote
2. A long lower shadow should be twice the height of the real body. In our case, the real body is bigger than the shadow.

I agree, the penultimate candle on your chart is a better hammer shape although in terms of position it does not close at the Low but at the High. The last candle is 'moving towards' being a hammer. Not a pure one I agree.

Quote
Again, the position of the candle, the shadow didn't test any important support level (1.4715)

But it closes on the UP TL you have drawn and the shadow is on the 50MA

Quote
As i said, i'm @ page 76 so i might be wrong with this

Possibly, but also it doesn't make me right either! That's the way with trading, nothing is 100% certain. It is all a question of probabilities!!

Strat may well shoot me down on this...... so ..................!
  • #7,862
  • Nov 22, 2009 5:52pm Nov 22, 2009 5:52pm
This looks interesting

A nice close from a break of the dsri

Boss is a hammer

What do you guys think of this one?

Personally, I will wait and see if there is retest before going long. I expect some price reaction at the 0.907 and 50 MA confluence and it would not be a good r/r ratio to take profit there.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp nov 22.gif Size: 25 KB
  • #7,863
  • Nov 22, 2009 6:20pm Nov 22, 2009 6:20pm
Quoting Naws
This looks interesting

A nice close from a break of the dsri

Boss is a hammer

What do you guys think of this one?

Personally, I will wait and see if there is retest before going long. I expect some price reaction at the 0.907 and 50 MA confluence and it would not be a good r/r ratio to take profit there.

Attachment

I like it as well Naws,

I almost bought some on that BUOB that started this but i decided to wait for a more risk free entry. If we get a wobble and some PA at .9000 i will be looking to get in.
  • #7,864
  • Nov 22, 2009 6:27pm Nov 22, 2009 6:27pm
I have a pending order to go long @ 82.15
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audjpy112209.png Size: 36 KB
  • #7,865
  • Nov 22, 2009 7:46pm Nov 22, 2009 7:46pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
I have a pending order to go long @ 82.15
If that red dash line is your SL, it is better, IMO, to put it down a bit, below 80 where we have SR support and previous swing low.
  • #7,866
  • Nov 22, 2009 7:49pm Nov 22, 2009 7:49pm
Quoting mstandifer
...The trades I had already entered prior to then I did not close, as a plan is a plan and it's a good a test as any of my trading psychology.
In my original entry for AUDCHF I said that because of the uncertainty of when the move up would occur, my plan was to scale into the trade. 1 lot at .9425, 1 lot at a whatever the 20 was when it hit (.9350) and 1 lot on a confirmed HL. Waiting on the confirmed HL. SL at .9140

USDCAD I was watching for PA 1.0640. If I get a confirmed bounce at the 20 I'll close the trade. I also recall Strat in a previous post saying to watch the 1.0820.

Again, these 2 trades are more about sticking to the plan than anything else.
-m
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audchf.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdcad.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #7,867
  • Nov 22, 2009 8:11pm Nov 22, 2009 8:11pm
Quoting Blackeagle
If that red dash line is your SL, it is better, IMO, to put it down a bit, below 80 where we have SR support and previous swing low.
Thanks for the advice Blackeagle i will consider adjusting my position size and moving the stop below 80.
  • #7,868
  • Edited Nov 23, 2009 8:23pm Nov 22, 2009 11:41pm | Edited Nov 23, 2009 8:23pm
Quoting Naws
This looks interesting

A nice close from a break of the dsri

Boss is a hammer

What do you guys think of this one?

Personally, I will wait and see if there is retest before going long. I expect some price reaction at the 0.907 and 50 MA confluence and it would not be a good r/r ratio to take profit there.

Attachment
I am long, as advertised. It's a matter of where one enters one's own trade that really matters, though. The better and well-justified entry I think was off the big fat line either at it or pushed into it by the resulting PA last week, bolstered by the GBP's abysmal performance overall (including the Beast). At this stage, it's a decent TL-based trade, with stops accordingly. Those seeing the earlier entry, however, have more room to play with it. If memory serves, it was mentioned here last week as a mistaken short.
  • #7,869
  • Nov 23, 2009 1:43am Nov 23, 2009 1:43am
Thanks Blackeagle.
Have read so many pages of strat's SFT in the last couple of weeks that my eyes have gone. Should have noticed the colour change.

Another week and I should have read them all, if I have not gone blind in the meanwhile.
Might need to change my log on name from stgeorge to Blind Pew.
Thanks
  • #7,870
  • Nov 23, 2009 9:04am Nov 23, 2009 9:04am
Thank you Strat, Blackeagle and all that have contributed to this thread. I have really enjoyed reading it Having been up since midnight trading the London session its time for some shut eye.
May the fish in your stream of life always bite.
  • #7,871
  • Nov 23, 2009 9:55am Nov 23, 2009 9:55am
Quoting Blackeagle
As you can see from the chart, they are coloured in orange that means they are not major SR levels but definitely worth paying attention for.

Hope this helps.
ALWAYS pay attention to Blackeagle SR levels - he has an uncanny talent for identifying these always significant levels.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,872
  • Nov 23, 2009 10:32am Nov 23, 2009 10:32am
Quoting Keyser Soze
I'm only @ page 71 un my path and i think i will start again from the beginning, i'm not satisfied with my understanding

EUR/USD, worker, the price is trapped between 20&50 MAs, we also have higher lows and lower highs (i think here is the fault of a DNT barrier with expiry on friday, with huge payout), i wait for a break of the triangle
Keyser Soze – where the hell is Wallis & Futuna? – me thinks you are pulling our plonker!

EUR/USD, worker, the price is trapped between 20&50 MAs, we also have higher lows and lower highs (i think here is the fault of a DNT barrier with expiry on friday, with huge payout), i wait for a break of the triangle

Lotuselanman

I agree it is in an interesting position. There is also the failed second attempt at breaching the (possibly minor?) R at 14996(ish) and the shadow of Friday's candle is resting on the 50MA. That candle is a hammer!

Daily - question is whether that hammer will herald a new assault on the 14990 R line, or turn out to be a bond hammer and be part of a further move down to the S at 147720 which supported candles between 28/10 and 4/11.

Overall a 'wait and see' situation. A new move up would have a poor R:R because of that R a little way ahead. So I will wait for a break of that R line before going long.

Keyser Soze

Do you consider that a hammer?

Here are Steve Nison's criterias on how to recognize a hammer:

1. The real body is at the upper end of a trading range. As we agreed, the worker is trapped into a channel, we don't have a trend
2. A long lower shadow should be twice the height of the real body. In our case, the real body is bigger than the shadow

Again, the position of the candle, the shadow didn't test any important support level (1.4715)

Lotuselanman

I agree, the penultimate candle on your chart is a better hammer shape although in terms of position it does not close at the Low but at the High. The last candle is 'moving towards' being a hammer. Not a pure one I agree.

Again, the position of the candle, the shadow didn't test any important support level (1.4715)
But it closes on the UP TL you have drawn and the shadow is on the 50MA

Possibly, but also it doesn't make me right either! That's the way with trading, nothing is 100% certain. It is all a question of probabilities!!

Strat may well shoot me down on this

Trying to “kill” two birds with one stone on this post.

First, this is a good interchange with traders helping each other which we NEED more of.

In text book terms and classical candle stick pattern recognition terms it is NOT a hammer. However, this is one of my many dilemmas now with this thread. Here we have Keyser Soze who is just at the beginning of his Path of Learning journey and Christopher (Lotuselanman) who has been with us for some time now.

Both of you have the correct interpretation for where you are on The Path. In the beginning we need to learn correct PRICE reversal candle recognition and from there move on to SEE BEYOND THE CANDLES.

As beginners we must learn the text book, classical PRICE reversal candles until we can “SEE” them without really looking. From there we move on to what those candles are actually telling us about buyers and sellers and to understand that it is not always about a “perfect” candle shape or proportion. More important is it’s position with respect to SR levels, the trend (if any), and the other candles around it.

“That” candle provided us with a lot of information. It was supported by Worker support which looks to be setting up a narrow trading range between it and the 1.5000 high. With a 3 day week for the US this week, it looks to me like this will waffle within this narrower range until the big boys invest in their beliefs.

When that happens and whichever way they go, we will follow.

While it is always about probabilities, we need to, and can, put most of the variables and options on our side so that we can reduce our risk and increase our chance of success.

Again, depending on your trading style, this is an acceptable trade if you are in to 50 to 100 pip moves.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,873
  • Nov 23, 2009 10:52am Nov 23, 2009 10:52am
While those in the US will be sharing the Thanksgiving Holiday this week and remembering about The Mayflower and it’s Pilgrims landing in MassiveTwoShits in 1621, let us also remember something about why we are trading.

Most of the PMs I receive and many of the posts on here revolve around “winning”. The dominating theme is always about “winning” and “beating the market”. This could not be further from the truth.

You probably don’t know it but it is your GREED emotion controlling you when you express yourself in these terms. You have reverted back to thinking of trading as a “Get Rich Quick” scheme. Again, this could not be further from the truth. Trading is no different to any other business. It is just another building blocks process. Get your blocks built in the correct order and your business will grow. Try and build without a foundation or the correct order of blocks (taking shortcuts) and your building (business) will sink.

Trading is NOT about winning.

Trading is about NOT LOSING

Professionals ALWAYS think RISK before profit

Professionals ALWAYS think how much they will LOSE before profit

Never, ever forget the # 1 Rule: CAPITAL PRESERVATION
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,874
  • Nov 23, 2009 12:33pm Nov 23, 2009 12:33pm
While not as powerful as the 20, do not under - estimate the value of the 50.

When you see it doubling up as a TL well, you don't need me to tell you what to do!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 32 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,875
  • Nov 23, 2009 12:54pm Nov 23, 2009 12:54pm
Quoting strat
While not as powerful as the 20, do not under - estimate the value of the 50.

When you see it doubling up as a TL well, you don't need me to tell you what to do!

i found that my MA 50 is different from yours, but 40 is equal. maybe it's because my charts don't include weekend bars?
  • #7,876
  • Nov 23, 2009 2:42pm Nov 23, 2009 2:42pm
Quoting mstandifer
In my original entry for AUDCHF I said that because of the uncertainty of when the move up would occur, my plan was to scale into the trade. 1 lot at .9425, 1 lot at a whatever the 20 was when it hit (.9350) and 1 lot on a confirmed HL. Waiting on the confirmed HL. SL at .9140
Hi mstandifer,

I'm looking at AUDCHF Daily chart and I think there could be a setup for going LONG on this pair. My data feed is different than your so see the chart below:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audchf_20091123_daily_en.png Size: 39 KB


The trend is up.
In the middle of the last week, the bears managed to take the price down. Friday, the demand managed to absorb the selling pressure of the bears and the day closed above the support at 0.93 (the hammer).

Today we have a bullish candle, which made a new high above the 20 EMA. IF the day closes above 20 EMA I think this could be a sign that the price might go up and I might place a buy order above the today's high with a SL below the Friday's low.

What do you think? Will you add to your long position?
  • #7,877
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:00pm Nov 23, 2009 3:00pm
How could i miss such a beauty?

This is a hammer at a very interesting level: 50% FIB ret. Also, the shadow reached the trendline. I should have placed a bid above the high of the hammer, with SL below the trendline.

Now we have a bullish engulfing (and i think it will close above 20EMA) pattern but it's too late to enter the deal due to R/R ratio

Lotuselanman, Strat, thanks for your answers.

Quote
Keyser Soze – where the hell is Wallis & Futuna? – me thinks you are pulling our plonker!
Strat, i'm sorry, i'm not a native english speaker and i don't understand what you mean by this
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: audusd.gif Size: 148 KB
  • #7,878
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:32pm Nov 23, 2009 3:32pm
Hi Keyser Soze,

volumes will make you gay

this is the post when I got healed: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=6867

well... volumes and spiderman

Inserted Video
  • #7,879
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:41pm Nov 23, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting Keyser Soze
How could i miss such a beauty?

This is a hammer at a very interesting level: 50% FIB ret. Also, the shadow reached the trendline. I should have placed a bid above the high of the hammer, with SL below the trendline.

Now we have a bullish engulfing (and i think it will close above 20EMA) pattern but it's too late to enter the deal due to R/R ratio

Lotuselanman, Strat, thanks for your answers.

Strat, i'm sorry, i'm not a native english speaker and i don't understand what you mean by this
How could i miss such a beauty?

There will be plenty of others so don’t worry.

Keyser Soze – where the hell is Wallis & Futuna? – me thinks you are pulling our plonker!

In your Profile you state you are from a country called Wallis & Futuna
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #7,880
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:42pm Nov 23, 2009 3:42pm
Sorry, forgot to edit it, i'm from Bucharest, Romania.
7 traders viewing now