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  • #164,201
  • Nov 22, 2009 12:34pm Nov 22, 2009 12:34pm
Wishing everyone good luck and good skill this week. Its always been a little demoralizing to me every time someone comes along and decides to take a poop on this thread, since I've put a lot into it in the past and there are so many good people here. Actually thats one big reason I stopped posting for a little while. But I just wanted to say I support and aknowledge all the efforts, talent, and intelligence of many of the traders here, and I support this thread. Other traders are just jealous because everyone who comes here is welcome. I hope it hits 55,000 posts any time before or after my account hits 55,000$, lol. Peace.
  • #164,202
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:06pm Nov 22, 2009 1:06pm
Quoting Popee83
Disclaimer:
Personally I don't believe in such stuff .. am more of an independent thinker. Just had to post though ...



EURUSD:
Attachment

EUR/USD is forming a triangle consolidation and we still don't have a confirmation one way or the other, although I'm still leaning toward an upside breakout with a target price of 1.52.
Fiber Daily:

Well It all looks bearish atm .. but I wouldn't just trash that 50 day SMA support as of yet ... this week could bring surprises with it ...:nerd:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fiber daily_macd.gif Size: 22 KB


The 50 day SMA now at 1.4798
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #164,203
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:15pm Nov 22, 2009 1:15pm
Quoting Popee83
Disclaimer:
Personally I don't believe in such stuff .. am more of an independent thinker. Just had to post though ...


DOW:
Attachment

As you can see, INDU has been going through a very distinctive bull/bear cycle in the past, almost in the clockwise, around the moon....
Some very nice cycle analysis there, great job
  • #164,204
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:17pm Nov 22, 2009 1:17pm
Quoting Popee83
Fiber Daily:

Well It all looks bearish atm .. but I wouldn't just trash that 50 day SMA support as of yet ... this week could bring surprises with it ...:nerd:

Attachment

The 50 day SMA now at 1.4798
Sorry .. Here is the unconfirmed triangle .. following the low at 1.4801, and a pull-back to 1.4861 which is the confirmation line ... leaves me dumb founded .. no TL break at the close ... MACD below signal line in a wary mode -- typical consolidation .. A close below LTD signal 1.4861 needed ..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fiber daily_macd.gif Size: 24 KB
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #164,205
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:23pm Nov 22, 2009 1:23pm
damn no gap talk? ok im on record as saying the gap may go as high as 1.7 or low 1.2 or somewhere between.. im 99.999% sure of this.. bet you best goat and second born..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #164,206
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:25pm Nov 22, 2009 1:25pm
Quoting piponairever
Does anyone know a quality forum? The onlies forex forums that i know are babypips and forex factory. Where do the pro traders hang out?

Hi Champ,

irc.financialchat.com
Some really good guys there...

I have to agree this FF forum can have its ups and downs... But is normally quite good...

Its probably just a reflection of the $ income....
  • #164,207
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:26pm Nov 22, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting gatorinla
damn no gap talk? ok im on record as saying the gap may go as high as 1.7 or low 1.2 or somewhere between.. im 99.999% sure of this.. bet you best goat and second born..
Hopefully you are right... I need 300 pips either way before my options expire on the 26th...
  • #164,208
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:33pm Nov 22, 2009 1:33pm
[Originally Posted by TexasforEX http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
The main thing to take from today's euro PA is that it is holding up nicely when the S&P is getting slaughtered. The higher beta currencies are crashing nicely at the same time, euro cross strength. If this holds as the new formula. euro's best days are down the road. One day does not make a trend, but it's a start...

quote=gatorinla;3246561]yes it is. 4923 may test it.. then sos.. oh 4961 is another they both float north as time goes on..we should know soon. current 4913[/quote]
watching this ..area
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #164,209
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:40pm Nov 22, 2009 1:40pm
Quoting Masrim
Some very nice cycle analysis there, great job
cool ... anytime ..
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #164,210
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:40pm Nov 22, 2009 1:40pm
Looks like a continuation triangle forming on 4H, also a very visible bull
hammer candle. Also it's a classic wave consolidation pattern, 3 tops. Imo, direction is still up, but I wouldn't play it until a good break of the upper triangle line is made. Only a break of 1.48 would give bears some real potential.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #164,211
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:46pm Nov 22, 2009 1:46pm
Quoting Masrim
Looks like a continuation triangle forming on 4H, also a very visible bull
hammer candle. Also it's a classic wave consolidation pattern, 3 tops. Imo, direction is still up, but I wouldn't play it until a good break of the upper triangle line is made. Only a break of 1.48 would give bears some real potential.

Hey thread. I'm in my car fighting traffic after the Cowboy game. It was ugly, but a W is a W. Nothing else to do so I figured I'd hop on the laptop and see what is up here.

I thought a "Classic continuation triangle" had five legs. up down up down up and away. This is obviously a wedge, but it is definitely not a textbook continuation pattern.

Edit: Just read Masrim wrote consolidation not continuation. In any event, this is still not a classic continuation triangle. Just a consolidation wedge as he posted
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #164,212
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:51pm Nov 22, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting TexasforEX
Hey thread. I'm in my car fighting traffic after the Cowboy game. It was ugly, but a W is a W. Nothing else to do so I figured I'd hop on the laptop and see what is up here.

I thought a "Classic continuation triangle" had five legs. up down up down up and away. This is obviously a wedge, but it is definitely not a textbook continuation pattern.
Yeah, it is distorted by the chinese option, but I think the implication is the same., 1.48 just got rejected too many times. That being said, I'd wish it'd go down, would be much stronger move than upside. Too bad up seems more probable atm :/
  • #164,213
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:55pm Nov 22, 2009 1:55pm
Quoting Masrim
Looks like a continuation triangle forming on 4H, also a very visible bull
hammer candle. Also it's a classic wave consolidation pattern, 3 tops. Imo, direction is still up, but I wouldn't play it until a good break of the upper triangle line is made. Only a break of 1.48 would give bears some real potential.
I have a similar setup on my H4 chart, although as yet I'm unsure which wedge will play out. Time will tell.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Doing what you like is Freedom. Liking what you do is Happiness.
  • #164,214
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:56pm Nov 22, 2009 1:56pm
Quoting Masrim
Yeah, it is distorted by the chinese option, but I think the implication is the same., 1.48 just got rejected too many times. That being said, I'd wish it'd go down, would be much stronger move than upside. Too bad up seems more probable atm :/

Maybe, market will let us know this week. Dollar index bounced from 75 pretty convincingly and the higher beta currencies have all given pretty good reversal (not retracement) patterns. Nzd/usd leads the way when a reversal happens alot of the time. I'm actually leaning towards a short but I won't take profit on all my long positions until the daily TL gets taken out.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #164,215
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:56pm Nov 22, 2009 1:56pm
[FDIC ON US BANK CLOSURES] FDIC said the Commerce Bank of Southwest Florida was closed over the weekend, bringing the total in failed banks this year to 124 or most since 1992. Moreover, 145 banks have failed since the start of recession. The failed bank had $77 mln in deposits which will be assumed by Central Bank from Minn. Cost to FDIC's insurance fund from the failed bank is pegged at $24 mln. There are 416 banks on FDIC "problem list". FDIC expects $100 bln in deposit-related charges thru-2011. FDIC has temporary $500 bln credit line with Tsy (and smaller permanent line) During the S&L crisis from 1988-1992, 818 banks were shut down.

just remember this is all bs. at the last s&l there were many more mom and pop banks with single branches. this time when a single bank closes its many more branches. in effect you can use a multiple to caculate this. 10 would be conservative. when comparing the 2. so the number could be 145 X 10 =1,450. also the failed banks are being bought by other banks mostly. so it further concentrates ownership into less banks. another future problem if we have a further slippage. if your not scared god bless you. what took a decade to build will not be torn down in a single year without pain. but as the masses realise what could happen cnbc, bloomberg and the other used car salesmen supporting them will still say buy buy buy. after all what else can they do? truth or not, that is the question.. during 1929, pryer and even during crash a few made millions..they were the buy buy buy used car salesmen.

happy pippin
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #164,216
  • Nov 22, 2009 1:59pm Nov 22, 2009 1:59pm
Quoting Masrim
Looks like a continuation triangle forming on 4H, also a very visible bull
hammer candle. Also it's a classic wave consolidation pattern, 3 tops. Imo, direction is still up, but I wouldn't play it until a good break of the upper triangle line is made. Only a break of 1.48 would give bears some real potential.
Hey man.

Here are the cycle calenders ... for 2009 and 2010 ...
2009:
Attached Image


2010:
Attached Image


:nerd:
"I am convinced that He (God) does not play dice." - Albert Einstein
  • #164,217
  • Edited 2:07pm Nov 22, 2009 2:03pm | Edited 2:07pm
Daily pivot seems to be the place to start building short, if that's you're bent.
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  • #164,218
  • Nov 22, 2009 2:07pm Nov 22, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting TexasforEX
1150 will cap the S&P for the next 10 years. I'm serious as a heart attack. The pain is coming......

It is not a coincidence that the best S&P close was at 1112, just below the 50% retracement of the big fall. I'm long gold, long some foreign energy companies and long SDS. Everything else scares the crud out of me.

I have posted previously about the disconnect between the weak dollar and strong equities. I still believe that will happen, but patience is a virtue and it doesn't look to happen quite yet. I am seeing the dollar having a sharp reversal here for the next couple months before getting hammered in 2010. The dream of Euro version 2.0 is still not dead. Eventually, oil will climb again and it will have a negative impact on the broader economy. Maybe it will be $82/bbl as Gator has posted about. Not sure, but I know I will be tuned in daily to find out.
"Timing Is Everything. Really I Swear It Is"
  • #164,219
  • Nov 22, 2009 2:10pm Nov 22, 2009 2:10pm
Quoting TexasforEX
It is not a coincidence that the best S&P close was at 1112, just below the 50% retracement of the big fall....
Full agreement.
  • #164,220
  • Nov 22, 2009 2:12pm Nov 22, 2009 2:12pm
Quoting TexasforEX
It is not a coincidence that the best S&P close was at 1112, just below the 50% retracement of the big fall....
What do you think about gold in that scenario?
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