Looking a this from at least a year or two back, we've really covered a lot of ground.
160 to 123, 123 to 147, 147 back to 124 and 124 up to 150,
with a number of several hundred pip moves along the way.
With a broad enough time window, it might be reasoned that
all of these boundaries will eventually get tested at some point.
For now, this record of price we refer to as a "chart" indicates
what has been the story d'jour for just about everyday since 2009 began:
The incredible shrinking US Dollar.
Now, as this year comes to a close, maybe with it will close this chapter
and begin a new one. Even in the 8 years it took the newly released euro
to double in value against the USD, it had fits of retracement lasting several months or so.
2005 is one good example. Last half of '08 - hard not to notice that one.
Maybe 2010 will offer another leg of retracement worth several percent or so.
No doubt at some point south of here, real money will emerge to prop it back up.
If not at 150 ? 140 then ? How about 130 ? At some point the euro will be seen as undervalued again.
So, is 150 fair value ? 140 ? 160 ? what's it worth ?
Well, tonite it's worth exactly 1 dollar, 48 and 61/100 cents.
That's because that was the last price recorded.
Before the weekend is over, even that number will fluctuate a little bit.
But, going forward into the new year, 2010 (wow - hard to believe)
new fair value benchmarks will arise to take the place of old ones.
We've settled in to a bit of a range the last few days and it is of no surprise
due to reasons I've detailed a dozen times over the past month,
and I'm quite the broken record at this point so I won't go into again right now.
However, eventually those reasons will have played themselves out for the time being
and then it willl be time to move again . When that signal is finally given,
it'll be on like Donkey Kong. Ten - Fifteen handles, one way or the other.
And whether it's 130 or 140 or 160 or 180 or whatever it turns out to be,
all we can do now is get prepared for it. It may get boring waiting it out,
but, remember: Success happens when preparation meets with opportunity.
cheers.
160 to 123, 123 to 147, 147 back to 124 and 124 up to 150,
with a number of several hundred pip moves along the way.
With a broad enough time window, it might be reasoned that
all of these boundaries will eventually get tested at some point.
For now, this record of price we refer to as a "chart" indicates
what has been the story d'jour for just about everyday since 2009 began:
The incredible shrinking US Dollar.
Now, as this year comes to a close, maybe with it will close this chapter
and begin a new one. Even in the 8 years it took the newly released euro
to double in value against the USD, it had fits of retracement lasting several months or so.
2005 is one good example. Last half of '08 - hard not to notice that one.
Maybe 2010 will offer another leg of retracement worth several percent or so.
No doubt at some point south of here, real money will emerge to prop it back up.
If not at 150 ? 140 then ? How about 130 ? At some point the euro will be seen as undervalued again.
So, is 150 fair value ? 140 ? 160 ? what's it worth ?
Well, tonite it's worth exactly 1 dollar, 48 and 61/100 cents.
That's because that was the last price recorded.
Before the weekend is over, even that number will fluctuate a little bit.
But, going forward into the new year, 2010 (wow - hard to believe)
new fair value benchmarks will arise to take the place of old ones.
We've settled in to a bit of a range the last few days and it is of no surprise
due to reasons I've detailed a dozen times over the past month,
and I'm quite the broken record at this point so I won't go into again right now.
However, eventually those reasons will have played themselves out for the time being
and then it willl be time to move again . When that signal is finally given,
it'll be on like Donkey Kong. Ten - Fifteen handles, one way or the other.
And whether it's 130 or 140 or 160 or 180 or whatever it turns out to be,
all we can do now is get prepared for it. It may get boring waiting it out,
but, remember: Success happens when preparation meets with opportunity.
cheers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
