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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #9,881
  • Nov 19, 2009 6:00pm Nov 19, 2009 6:00pm
Quoting lmturek11
Thank you for the kind answer. It makes sense to me to adjust the SL to current market volatility. Perhaps using ATR for the last X periods or such.
My question refers not to the size of the TSL but the application of it as a pip by pip TSL, in other words as price advances pip by pip in direction of trade TSL advances pip by pip in direction of trade OR X pip increments, in other words price moves X pips in direction of trade before TSL moves or some other means of trailing the stop loss. I hope my question is clear. But I could be wrong
Hi lmturek

I move my TSL periodically. There is no need to move it pip by pip. There is always sufficient time to recognise a new high and adjust the TSL.

Having said that, if you you wish to move your TSL pip by pip or in X pip increments, that is fine too.


.
  • #9,882
  • Nov 19, 2009 6:03pm Nov 19, 2009 6:03pm
Quoting garrye
agree 100% .im playing by them rules,with your take on the market,and trading the extremes of the s/r levels its fitting in well moving my stop is a big factor,so no losses on these adventurous trades,so far so good.glad to see here of late the method works well
Hi garrye

Yes, the method works well.

I am certainly very happy with the way that it performed under the difficult trading conditions of the last 12-15 months of the great Financial Crisis.

I think that that was a huge stress test of the method and it flew through it well.

.
  • #9,883
  • Nov 19, 2009 10:00pm Nov 19, 2009 10:00pm

Jacko,

Thank you for the answers. I have a couple of more questions for clarity, I have typed them in green.

Jacko had said that one should "determine the timeframe you want to trade". I am not clear on that point. Is that meant to say, select a 15 minute chart, determine the trend of it and trade following the rules? OR is it that once you have determined the long term trend on a weekly (weekly as example) you can trade a 15 minute chart in direction of the long term trend as determined by the weekly? The main method can be used on basically ANY time frame. However, the smaller the time frame, the higher the random "noise" level. But some traders want to trade the smaller 4h time frame. So, you have to understand that sometimes, the Daily trend will differ from the 4H trend So what I am saying in the statements above is firstly, determine the time frame YOU want to trade...then apply the method. Assuming a daily chart is in an uptrend, and a 4hr is in a downtrend, would you only trade the long side which would seem safer or follow the trend of the 4 hr and trade short?

I assume it unlikely but possible to be in a trade, to have a retrace and have the rules call for an additional position. In that scenario, do you take on an additional position or pass on it?

Jacko, Thank you for taking the time to help!
BR
  • #9,884
  • Nov 20, 2009 1:23am Nov 20, 2009 1:23am
Hi Big1red9

see below in red


Quoting Big1red9
Jacko,

Thank you for the answers. I have a couple of more questions for clarity, I have typed them in green.

Jacko had said that one should "determine the timeframe you want to trade". I am not clear on that point. Is that meant to say, select a 15 minute chart, determine the trend of it and trade following the rules? OR is it that once you have determined the long term trend on a weekly (weekly as example) you can trade a 15 minute chart in direction of the long term trend as determined by the weekly? [color=red]The...
Thank you for the answers. I have a couple of more questions for clarity, I have typed them in green.

Jacko had said that one should "determine the timeframe you want to trade". I am not clear on that point. Is that meant to say, select a 15 minute chart, determine the trend of it and trade following the rules? OR is it that once you have determined the long term trend on a weekly (weekly as example) you can trade a 15 minute chart in direction of the long term trend as determined by the weekly? The main method can be used on basically ANY time frame. However, the smaller the time frame, the higher the random "noise" level. But some traders want to trade the smaller 4h time frame. So, you have to understand that sometimes, the Daily trend will differ from the 4H trend So what I am saying in the statements above is firstly, determine the time frame YOU want to trade...then apply the method.
Assuming a daily chart is in an uptrend, and a 4hr is in a downtrend, would you only trade the long side which would seem safer or follow the trend of the 4 hr and trade short? It is unusual that the 4H would be in a strong downtrend if the Daily is still trending up. It happens but I would be concerned that it was not just a retracement. Having said that, IF I was trading the 4H and the trend line was broken on the 4H , I would go short
I assume it unlikely but possible to be in a trade, to have a retrace and have the rules call for an additional position. I can't think of a situation of how that would happen in my strategy. That is not to say it couldn't happen..but I just can't think of an example where that would happen.
In that scenario, do you take on an additional position or pass on it? The only possible scenario that I can think of is if I was in a trade and, as that trade went into profit, it came to an AH trade position that had been sitting above above it. In that case, I would leverage up on the profit from the first trade and take the AH trade as well

Jacko, Thank you for taking the time to help! No problem....this post is looking like some emails from a member as I bounce back and forth i multi-colors...LOL
  • #9,885
  • Nov 20, 2009 3:53am Nov 20, 2009 3:53am
Hi All,

just a quick question to you. So assume we got filled in a trade positioned according to the trading rules outlined.

Is the trailing of SL starts from the beginning? I understand that it is enough to trail periodically all right. If, say, we have SL 100 should it be pulled to SL 50 when the market has moved 50 in our favour?

Or just simpli pull it to BE at 100 pips profit?

Also, do I understand correctly that this method has this set rule of trailing the SL whit the amount determined at beginning of trade, somewhere between 50 and 100, and the market will stop us out?

If so, I note that although there is plenty of discreation in the position taken, this may be rather mechanical trade management. That would be adventageous (to me) so I do not need to do serious assessment again and again to decide what to do with the open positions.

I appologize if these questions have been asked before, it takes a long time to go through all the thread and I am not quite finished yet.
Kind Regards zol
  • #9,886
  • Nov 20, 2009 8:41am Nov 20, 2009 8:41am
Zoli,

New to this thread, but understand this point as I just covered it.

Assuming you have the fib/round number clear...

You take your trade @ 1.4800. Stop loss firm @ 1.4750.

Assume trade goes against you - taken out and apply anti-hedge("AH") method

Assume trade goes for you, trailing stop set to 50 pips. (went as high at 1.5050 close trade at 1.5000).

Hope that helps add clarity. A tool I use, when I am not clear on a topic of a thread like this - is to do a search just of the thread with some key words. At times it zero's in on an answer. That assumes I know enough to know what keywords to use.

Good luck,
BR

Quoting zoli
Hi All,

just a quick question to you. So assume we got filled in a trade positioned according to the trading rules outlined.

Is the trailing of SL starts from the beginning? I understand that it is enough to trail periodically all right. If, say, we have SL 100 should it be pulled to SL 50 when the market has moved 50 in our favour?

Or just simpli pull it to BE at 100 pips profit?

Also, do I understand correctly that this method has this set rule of trailing the SL whit the amount determined at beginning of trade, somewhere between 50...
  • #9,887
  • Nov 20, 2009 9:34am Nov 20, 2009 9:34am
Quoting Big1red9
Zoli,

New to this thread, but understand this point as I just covered it.

Assuming you have the fib/round number clear...

You take your trade @ 1.4800. Stop loss firm @ 1.4750.

Assume trade goes against you - taken out and apply anti-hedge("AH") method

Assume trade goes for you, trailing stop set to 50 pips. (went as high at 1.5050 close trade at 1.5000).

Hope that helps add clarity. A tool I use, when I am not clear on a topic of a thread like this - is to do a search just of the thread with some key words. At times it zero's in...
Hi BR,

Thank you for this. Helps.
Kind Regards zol
  • #9,888
  • Nov 21, 2009 5:19am Nov 21, 2009 5:19am
Quoting Big1red9
Zoli,

New to this thread, but understand this point as I just covered it.

Assuming you have the fib/round number clear...

You take your trade @ 1.4800. Stop loss firm @ 1.4750.

Assume trade goes against you - taken out and apply anti-hedge("AH") method

Assume trade goes for you, trailing stop set to 50 pips. (went as high at 1.5050 close trade at 1.5000).

Hope that helps add clarity. A tool I use, when I am not clear on a topic of a thread like this - is to do a search just of the thread with some key words. At times it zero's in...

Hi Big1red9

You are correct as far as the very basic strategy..

.
  • #9,889
  • Nov 21, 2009 12:15pm Nov 21, 2009 12:15pm
Hi All,

I just wanted to throw this up. I was long last week on EU from 4869 with 100 TS. I pulled to BE at 50 pips profit because I went to sleep and I am not comfortable with leaving that just yet. I got a progress up to 65 pips then I got stopped out at BE.

I am learning to trade but I understood that according to this system I was right with trailing my SL by 100 pips, please confirm.

Also I am looking at the 4H chart and what I can see is three consecutive Lower Highs. The bottom is rejected at 4800. Of course the difficulity is that we are still making a Higher High on the big up trend.

I am considering the option of shorting this though if another Lower High presents itself. I would consider that the 4800 may be broken to the downside or aproached again at minimum.

Could you please comment on this study? Was there anything I did not consider?



Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Kind Regards zol
  • #9,890
  • Nov 21, 2009 6:27pm Nov 21, 2009 6:27pm
I don't understand the positioning of your lower green TL - regarding the rest - a quick answer from where I stand - yes price may well be headed down to the Lower Daily TL - when it gets there I'm going to wait and see whether it breaks and closes below convincingly enough for a possible indication of a trend reversal. I may even trade down to that level - however it's a CT trade in my book and thus I will act accordingly on my risk management.

Cheers
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,891
  • Nov 22, 2009 3:59am Nov 22, 2009 3:59am
Quoting coscorp
I don't understand the positioning of your lower green TL - regarding the rest - a quick answer from where I stand - yes price may well be headed down to the Lower Daily TL - when it gets there I'm going to wait and see whether it breaks and closes below convincingly enough for a possible indication of a trend reversal. I may even trade down to that level - however it's a CT trade in my book and thus I will act accordingly on my risk management.

Cheers
Thank yu for your reply. The TL is an older one, may not be valid any more.

Yes, If I am looking at the daily, the trend is up. Trends have bigger possiblity for continuation than reversal, and even if they revers it is not likely that a new trader like me can pick the top with correct certainity.

I may as well just sit it out and wait for clear signals. This new HL could still work out.
Kind Regards zol
  • #9,892
  • Nov 22, 2009 4:22am Nov 22, 2009 4:22am
Quoting zoli
Thank yu for your reply. The TL is an older one, may not be valid any more.

Yes, If I am looking at the daily, the trend is up. Trends have bigger possiblity for continuation than reversal, and even if they revers it is not likely that a new trader like me can pick the top with correct certainity.

I may as well just sit it out and wait for clear signals. This new HL could still work out.

You are correct - it isn't valid anymore
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,893
  • Nov 22, 2009 5:18pm Nov 22, 2009 5:18pm
Jacko et al,

EUR/USD on weekly chart has been in an uptrend since Feb '09. Price has bounced off the support line or come close on many occasions over that time. Price is currently @ 1.4850 and close to the support dip trend line on the 4 hour chart. Do you consider the 1.4850 a "round" number?

The double top formation in June '08 is some 1200 pips higher than the current price. Do you consider this an appropriate long trade?

I have read most of the posts but this is a very lengthy thread, and I am wondering what the current criteria are for placing relevant orders. Are we using primarily EUR/USD buying on (1) trend line support dips and/or (2) 50% Fib retracement from the last swing high/swing low and/or (3) price adhering to (1) or (2), but entering on whole number entry points when they line up closely together? Hard stop of 50 pips, trailing stop of 50 pips, Anti-Hedging after 50 pips move past SL, and no specified take profit target.

After all this, price has moved up to 1.4862...so at this point would you place a pending order at 1.4900?

Please advise, and thank you very much.

Bob in Wisconsin
  • #9,894
  • Nov 22, 2009 5:30pm Nov 22, 2009 5:30pm
Well...I placed the E/U pending order @ 1.4900. If price retraces below 1.4850, would it be prudent to move the pending order down to 1.4850?

Someone please correct me if my analysis is contrary to Jacko's strategy.

Many thanks!
  • #9,895
  • Nov 22, 2009 7:07pm Nov 22, 2009 7:07pm
Well...pending order was filled...I received no replies from anyone on my previous questions...hope this was the right trade to make!
  • #9,896
  • Nov 22, 2009 7:30pm Nov 22, 2009 7:30pm
Quoting jacko
Hi garrye

Yes, the method works well.

I am certainly very happy with the way that it performed under the difficult trading conditions of the last 12-15 months of the great Financial Crisis.

I think that that was a huge stress test of the method and it flew through it well.

.
You should be proud of your results in that time, Wayne. It was a tremendous result. Anyone who says different is in cuckoo land.
  • #9,897
  • Nov 22, 2009 10:59pm Nov 22, 2009 10:59pm
Quoting Bobcat2
Well...pending order was filled...I received no replies from anyone on my previous questions...hope this was the right trade to make!
im waiting until london open feel we will hit new high,so on the side lines
student
  • #9,898
  • Nov 23, 2009 2:51am Nov 23, 2009 2:51am
i have also entered at 1.4850. the market has been back and forth over the last week and each time it hit the 50%fib line i missed it.
now shes got +100 locked in
  • #9,899
  • Nov 23, 2009 2:52am Nov 23, 2009 2:52am
long at 1.4950 here - opened the charts this morning to find price had come very close to the daily TL then bounced at 1.4795 - still can't understand what the heck I was doing not to act on it sooner....I've left 100+ pips on the table...


anycase TP 1 1.5050 or thereabouts though there are some areas of resistance before that - like where price is now at the 14980 area so need to sit it out and wait.

never take your eye of the ball...


bobcat - good job
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #9,900
  • Nov 23, 2009 3:23am Nov 23, 2009 3:23am
Quoting coscorp
long at 1.4950 here - opened the charts this morning to find price had come very close to the daily TL then bounced at 1.4795 - still can't understand what the heck I was doing not to act on it sooner....I've left 100+ pips on the table...


anycase TP 1 1.5050 or thereabouts though there are some areas of resistance before that - like where price is now at the 14980 area so need to sit it out and wait.

never take your eye of the ball...


bobcat - good job
So I would like to just clarify the SL.

The initial SL is 100 pips now?

The TS is also 100 pips or it is 50 pips?
Kind Regards zol
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